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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 14h

House building: Supply is up, up & away. Commencements, under construction & completions all rising. www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLNu...

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House building: Supply is up, up & away. Commencements, under construction & completions all rising

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The next 5 days. It’s one of those weeks with a downpour of economic news. The RBA, CPI, household spending, building approvals & house prices. Add to those, job vacancies! Listen in to what to expect. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Isvi...

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The next 5 days - a huge week ahead for economic news

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Maybe not a perfect set of numbers, but pretty damn good. GDP growth solid - the 'wingardium leviosa' magic for the economy. Momentum in private demand & now a sharp pull back in govt demand are keys. This is making room for the private sector to invest & hire www.youtube.com/watch?v=57e8...

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Maybe not a perfect set of numbers, but pretty damn good

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Public demand is retreating & dwelling apps hit a 5 yr high. Adding a twist of lemon & some tonic to the Poor Toms gin, non-res building apps hit an all-time high Add a 0.1ppt contrib to GDP from net X & the big picture is looking as good as Monet’s water lilies cycle www.youtube.com/watch?v=hP7d...

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Am deluge of, frankly, great economic data

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

House prices down, rental vacancy rate up: Housing policy is working to perfection. House prices fell 0.9% in August, down 3.6% from peak levels. Prices down for 5 straight months. Also, the rental vacancy rate rose to 1.9% www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mgy...

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House prices down, rental vacancy rate up: Housing policy is working to perfection

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

It's time to throw in the towel: economic growth is hardly slowing at all! l was wrong to think restrictive interest rates, fiscal tightening, weak wages, rising unemployment & falling wealth from house price declines would see slower GDP growth & a fall in inflation www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCKR...

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It's time to throw in the towel - economic growth is hardly slowing at all

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index: up again as consumer pessimism fades. Interestingly & the correlation may not be strong but since the 12 May Budget consumer confidence is up 20.9% with the sub-index of expectations for the economy over the next year up 30%. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AiL...

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One small step for consumer confidence, one giant leap for the economy

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

$1 trillion government debt: 69% was racked up under the Coalition; 31% under Labor... ho hum! You can't miss the melodrama of the big number syndrome - Australia's govt debt has hit $1 trillion. Woopdidoo! www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIc7...

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$1 trillion government debt: 69% was racked up under the Coalition 31% under Labor... ho hum!

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Employment down 16,000 in July, unemployment rate at a cyclical high 4.5% & most worrying is hours worked: -0.6% in July up just 0.2%yy. Against all available hard evidence, the RBA reckon the labour market is tight Fact based economists would say this is not correct www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOYt...

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Labour market slack gets a little wider as employment falls, unemployment rises, hours worked stall

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Whatever the cause of the current inflation ripple, it is NOT wages. Overall wages growth is muddling along at 3.2%, while private sector wages growth dropped to a 4 year low of 3.1%. www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEm7...

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Wages growth remains weak & in line with inflation below the mid-point of the RBA target

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Snippets of good news - consumer sentiment moves higher from the pre-Budget low. Up 6% in August, up 8% since the budget. It's a picture of a recovery in optimism about the economy. Expectations for buying a house improved. Bargain hunters coming out of the woodwork? www.youtube.com/watch?v=92zr...

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Snippets of good news - consumer sentiment continues to move higher from the pre-Budget low

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

House prices still falling & it's an orderly fall. We're about 6 to 9 mths from the trough. House prices are down 0.6% mth to date in August, down 1.9% year to date. Sydney & Melbourne continue to lead the falls but prices are now down in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth www.youtube.com/watch?v=-U5o...

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House prices still falling & it's an orderly fall. We're about 6 to 9 months from the trough

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Lending for dwellings down, with the composition a text book example of successful policy. In the June qtr, lending for investment dwellings was down 8%, first home buyer lending was down just 3% & it is still higher than it was a year ago. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBZ9...

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Lending for dwellings down, with the composition a text book example of successful policy

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

The wages data are a body blow for those who reckon the labour market is tight - yep, the RBA too. Average earnings, total earnings, data for May show an annual increase in wages was a weaker than tepid 2.4% and was just 2.0% for the private sector. www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMIL...

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The wages data are a body blow for those who reckon the labour market is tight - yep, the RBA too

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

RBA Gov Bullock reckons the labour market is tight. She's wrong. The RBA is forecasting wages growth to keep falling from an already moderate pace & for the unemployment rate to rise further as the economy slows. These are symptoms of a labour market with slack www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3Va...

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The labour market is not tight - watch wages growth not the RBA analysis

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

The RBA has revealed an about face with its forecasts: Instead of missing its inflation target, it is about to miss its full employment target. That is according to its own forecasts. www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6hl...

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RBA on hold as it forecasts a further unwelcome rise in unemployment

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

A beef & black bean result from the NAB biz survey. Anyone who enjoys a succulent Chinese meal knows that beef & black bean is the go to dish when there is a group of people. So too with the NAB business survey - not bad, but a few worrying hints of price pressures www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMdx...

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A beef and black bean result from the NAB business survey

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Australians are among the wealthiest people on Earth. Median wealth is $298,570 per capita behind Luxembourg & Belgium. Median wealth Canadians is $209,425: Japan: $192,436, UK: $176,857, Singapore: $135,826, Sweden: $118,858 & just $97,658 in the US independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...

independentaustralia.net

Why wealth matters and why Australia is a world leader

Australia’s high and relatively evenly distributed wealth underpins living standards and leaves the nation among the world’s most prosperous.

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

The RBA is on hold: the reasons are so obvious even blind Freddy can see them GDP growth is slowing Inflation has topped out Unemployment is edging up & wages growth is bland The wealth effect from house prices has downside risks & an overshoot need to be considered www.youtube.com/watch?v=SStj...

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The RBA is on hold: the reasons for no change in rates is so obvious even blind Freddy can see them

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

No surprises house prices down in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide & Canberra; puny 0.1% increases in Perth and Hobart & rises in Darwin. Rising unemployment is the main driver of the house price falls, aided by lower demand & rising supply www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jn1D...

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House prices drop 0.7% in July - more to come

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

More great news on housing: The supply side is responding nicely to the policy settings put in place that are designed to boost dwelling supply. The number of new dwelling building approvals (trend) is up a tubthumping 39% since the Feb 2024. www.youtube.com/watch?v=QS8g...

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More great news on housing: This time it is building approvals rising strongly

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

SQM data show asking prices for dwellings falling in all cities other than Darwin, while asking rents are also down. Housing is poised to provide a disinflation impetus to the economy with wealth destruction & a topping out in rental growth both set to weaken. www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2B9...

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Housing: Asking prices and asking rents both continuing to fall

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

The outlook for household spending is flat to down. There are 4 sources of money to support household spending: Income Savings Borrowings Wealth At the moment, the balance of these items is flat to down suggesting a soggy period ahead for household spending growth www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1Z9...

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The outlook for household spending is obviously flat to down

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

A stocktake the Australian economy is favourable. Economic growth is slowing helping to get inflation lower. The RBA is meeting the full employment objective - good. Inflation is too high but is topping out. Biz investment is strong which will add to productivity www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhOf...

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Economic stocktake - things are panning out in a good way, mostly

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Were those labour force numbers super strong or just in the groove? The strong side was a 76,000 increase in employment. BUT hours worked only rose 0.2%, the underemployment rate rose 0.2 ppts & the ABS note the unemployment rate to 2 dec points rose 0.1ppts to 4.4% www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU_R...

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Huh? Were those labour force numbers super strong or just in the groove?

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

My latest for Forbes. Opinion: Australia’s march towards $1 trillion in gross debt has prompted plenty of hand-wringing, but a closer look tells a far less alarming story. www.forbes.com.au/news/innovat...

forbes.com.au

Does Australia have a debt problem? Not if you look closely at the figures

Australia’s gross debt is nearing $1 trillion, but global comparisons paint a far less alarming picture, argues Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

SQM Research publish weekly data on 'asking rents' & there are clear signs that asking rents are flat to down. This is great news for rental affordability & good news for inflation. It is also a guide to the slack in the housing market. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZreJ...

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Asking rents are starting to fall - SQM data are suggesting that policy is working

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

A rise in the weekly Roy Morgan ANZ consumer confidence measure, which is building on earlier increases. Consumer confidence has risen a hefty 18% since the budget. While the doomsayers & vested interest groups remain noisy, the bulk of the community are less worried. www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYQL...

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Consumer confidence is up again - up 18% since the 12 May Budget

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Facts. Since the budget, there has been a solid pick up in confidence in the Australian economy. Suffice to say, the bleating of a few about how the budget measures will ruin the economy are hot air and not reflected in the way Australians see the economy. www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC2Z...

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Consumer and business confidence have risen since the budget

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Slightly encouraging news - consumer sentiment up; business confidence up; rental vacancy rates up. www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuG5...

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Slightly encouraging news - consumer sentiment up; business confidence up; rental vacancy rates up

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Stop the whinging and whining about economic policy in Australia - the markets like what they see. Since the Budget the ASX is up, govt bond yields are down & the AUD has dropped one US cent against a strong US dollar. www.youtube.com/watch?v=paRz...

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Stop the whinging and whining about economic policy is Australia - the markets like what they see

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

The CBA use their internal data to estimate wages growth & changes in employment. The latest data show wages growth flat at 3.1% - consistent with 2.5% inflation; while employment growth has fallen to its lowest point since the pandemic. www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C55...

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Wages growth is soggy as employment stalls - insights from CBA's internal data

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

"Clap along if you know what happiness is to you Clap along if you feel like that's what you wanna do Because I'm happy" Pharrell Williams As the economy slows, it's encouraging to see how healthy the finances of the household sector are. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNE2...

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I'm happy! Household finances are better than good

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

A couple of lower tier but sometimes important indicators. The MI inflation gauge should prices dropping 0.4% in June, bringing annual inflation to 3.9%, while job ads fell 0.2% in June after rising in May, but they remain consistent with softer labour market conds. www.youtube.com/watch?v=siSC...

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Inflation down in June; job ads tick lower too

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

Gross govt debt remains contained at $974.9b, tracking $7b below the estimate from the May 2026 budget & $195b below the level former Treasurer Frydenberg was aiming for in his last budget. This govt is doing a great job containing the rise in govt debt. www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyEq...

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Gross government debt remains contained - the long task of budget repair continues

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

Is the Aussie dollar overvalued? The export & trade data say "yes" There was a 7% slide in exports in May; the trade deficit in goods was $3b, a far cry from surpluses of $10b or more just a year or two ago Another bit of news that is a nail in the rate hike coffin. www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYUo...

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Is the Aussie dollar overvalued? The export & trade data say "yes"

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

"Boom, boom, boom Let's go back to my data centre" Paul Lekakis (apologies) Dwelling approvals edging down: are developers postponing or cancel construction of new projects for fear of having to sell at a loss? Non-residential building is going BOOM. www.youtube.com/watch?v=yod9...

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Dwelling approvals start to trend lower while non-residential approvals BOOM to a new record high

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Reposted by Stephen Koukoulas

Independent Australia @handle.invalid · 29/06/2026

Strong income growth, softer house prices and a more favourable interest rate outlook suggest housing affordability is set to improve over the coming years. Good news! Housing is getting more and more affordable ~ @thekouk.bsky.social

buff.ly

Good news! Housing is getting more and more affordable

Strong income growth, softer house prices and a more favourable interest rate outlook suggest housing affordability is set to improve over the coming years.

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Inflation is set to track lower Economic growth is slipping below trend freeing up capacity Commodity prices are falling meaning global inflation will be skewed lower The labour market is building slack with unemployment rate trending up & wages growth trending down www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOH-...

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Inflation is set to track lower - the RBA has done more than enough hiking of interest rates

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

House prices are falling, a move that has seen many of the usual suspects crawl out from under their rocks to wildly speculate that prices this time around will drop 20, 25 or even 30%. www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxB3...

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What falling house prices mean for the economy & why a 'crash' of 10% or more is very unlikely

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Employment up 40,000 in May after falling 40,000 in April; unemployment 4.4% from 4.5%; hours worked down 1.1% in May & up just 0.5% yy. Add to this a 2% fall in job vacanices. For household spending, it is petrol & holidays that drove a nice 1.3% rise in May. www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnMw...

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The data trifecta - the labour market remains softish while household spending is flattish

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

Inflation is still too high - tell me something I didn't know! Annual inflation in May eased to 4.0% while the trimmed mean ticked up to 3.6%. A period of weaker growth (which is with us it seems) will be needed to get inflation back to target. www.youtube.com/watch?v=H82e...

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Inflation is still too high - tell me something I didn't know!

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

When do falling house prices become a worry? It's clear house prices are falling. At this stage, there's nothing to worry about, as the falls are from a high base, there is not a marked fall in household spending growth & bad debts for the banking sector remain low. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZh4...

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When do falling house prices become a worry?

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Australia's population rose by 1.5% in 2025, which is the average of growth over the past 20 yrs. Net migration slowed to 301,000 people, which is down 46% from the Sep 2023 peak. Australians are having more babies than people a dying - natural increase was 111,000 www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDpq...

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Population growth is back to normal

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Get set for a productivity boom as the Capex 'peine forte et dure' ends. The fall in Capex from 2013 to 2022 crushed productivity, economic growth & incomes. The good news is the recovery in Capex since 2022. This will increase the speed limit for economic growth. www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFev...

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Getting set for a productivity recovery (boom even) as the 'peine forte et dure' ends

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Reposted by Stephen Koukoulas

Independent Australia @handle.invalid · 15/06/2026

There has been a lot of hand-wringing in the media and from a small army of vested interest groups about the economic consequences of the Federal Budget. Was the Budget really unpopular? There are plenty of reasons to suggest ‘no’ ~ @thekouk.bsky.social

buff.ly

Was the Budget really unpopular? There are plenty of reasons to suggest ‘no’

There has been a lot of hand-wringing in the media and from a small army of vested interest groups about the economic consequences of the Federal Budget delivered by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on 12 May.

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

RBA holds rates at an equal 14 yr high. Inflation still too high. Hawkish. Unemployment higher than forecast. Dovish. House prices are falling. Dovish. Oil prices are down, but we'll be watching developments. Dovish - maybe. All up, a simple decision. www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgCv...

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RBA holds rates at an equal 14 year high. Inflation is too high, BUT unemployment is above forecast

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

The CBA Wage Insights data show annual wages growth tracking a tick above 3.0%. This is consistent with inflation running at 2.5%. Note also unemployment at a 4 1/2 year high & job ads are weak. Simple reasons why there should be no more interest rate hikes. www.youtube.com/watch?v=re57...

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The softening labour market is a reason that will feed into interest rate cuts

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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Stephen Koukoulas @thekouk.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

No more RBA rate hikes? The markets are moving that way. Rising unemployment, a heightened risk of recession & the wealth effects from falling house prices are driving investors to take out RBA rate hikes & flirt with rate cuts in 2027. www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlHg...

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No more RBA rate hikes? The markets are moving that way

YouTube video by Stephen Koukoulas

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