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The Eyewall

@theeyewallwx.bsky.social
4.8K followers 5 following 589 posts

Reliable, no-hype coverage of tropical storms and hurricanes across the Atlantic from the team at Space City Weather! theeyewall.com

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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 3h
Newly formed Tropical Depression 9 is likely to strike the central or eastern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend. We explain what we know and don’t know this evening: Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Tropical Depression 9 likely to threaten the central or eastern Gulf Coast as a hurricane by the weekend
Isaias is the next name, and it looks likely to form in a day or so.
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Here’s a Monday evening update on Invest 92L, which now has 80% odds of developing into a depression or tropical storm. Or more. For now, folks on the central and eastern Gulf Coast should be monitoring 92L. We explain what to watch and what we know below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
It only takes one: Watching the Gulf for increasing chances of legitimate tropical development
Invest 92L now up to 80% odds of developing
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Development odds are on the board in the southwest Gulf this week, and we’re watching a reasonable potential for something form there. But what, where, and when remain to be seen. Our assessment as of Sunday is below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Are we heading into the grand finale of the otherwise tepid 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
As is often the case, we’re watching the southwest Gulf as the week wears on.
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Starting to see flooding ramp up again out West w/ a flash flood emergency due to a levee breach north of Las Cruces, NM. This will expand into Texas, with a level 3/4 flooding risk in Hill Country tomorrow night and along I-35 Thursday night. Plus, a look at the tropics. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Flooding event escalating a bit in the Southwest with eyes on interior Texas tomorrow night through Friday
Atlantic tropics remain quiet. For now.
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
With the nor’easter winding down, we take a look at the good and bad elements of the forecast & messaging. But now the attention shifts to a serious flash flooding risk from Hurricane Polo’s remnants in the Desert Southwest & interior Texas. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Nor'easter winds down as attention focuses on Southwest & Texas drenching from remnants of Polo
Flooding risks in parts of the Desert Southwest and Central Texas look quite serious.
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
We’ve got a nor’easter update, which is decidedly not done yet. We are monitoring the possibility of flash flooding, especially eastern New England between Boston & Providence tonight & Sunday. Plus the latest on all the other doings in the tropics! Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Nor'easter continues into tonight and Sunday with locally heavy rain from New Jersey to Massachusetts
Watching risk of flash flooding between Boston and Providence into tomorrow
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Here’s the latest on all things nor’easter (New Jersey & Long Island seem to be at risk for the most significant impacts), plus an update on Fay, newly formed Gonzalo in the Atlantic, Hurricane Polo near Mexico, and Hurricane Nolo near Hawaii. Link below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
East Coast storm gets underway as details come into better focus
Jersey and Long Island are likely to see the worst of the storm.
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The nor’easter continues to slowly, very slowly come into better focus. We explain the tidal flooding, wind, and heavy rainfall risks for New England and the Mid-Atlantic. We also rundown Hurricane Polo’s latest, as well as Nolo’s threat to Hawaii. Details below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Weekend nor'easter crawling into focus, but some details are still to be ironed out
Plus the latest on Nolo and Polo in the Pacific and Fay’s revival in the Atlantic
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
A lot of garbage is floating around out there about this weekend’s nor’easter. Here we separate facts and fan fiction. Details on what to expect in New England through Jersey. Plus a peek at the rest of the tropics. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Dispelling nor'easter misconceptions and diving into actual expected impacts for this weekend's storm
What should New England expect? Plus, a look around the horn from the Atlantic to the Pacific.
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
An update on this weekend’s nor’easter that may make an attempt to become a subtropical system. While the impacts won’t change in either scenario, gusty winds, tidal flooding, and potentially heavy rain are in the cards. Plus a peek into the rest of the tropics. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Coastal storm to bring meaningful impacts to parts of New England and the Mid-Atlantic this weekend
A cat 5 in the Pacific as well
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Fay is the strongest storm of the 2026 season so far, but it’s quickly weakening. Meanwhile, interest is increasing in a potential nor’easter that could transition to a tropical storm off S New England this weekend. We explain how and what it means.
theeyewall.substack.com
A little busier this week, as Fay fizzles and the action picks up off New England and New Jersey
A nor’easter may try to transition to a tropical storm
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Today we check in on the potential for a disturbance to develop east of Bermuda. We also take a deeper dive into a serious Connecticut flash flooding event from this past weekend. Link below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Maybe we can get something going in the Atlantic? Plus, an anatomy of another southern Connecticut flooding event
It’s been a rough summer
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
A weekend update on the state of the Atlantic basin’s situation and where we’ll next be watching. Overall, things remain in tip top shape. Read more below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Scanning the Atlantic for any whiff of activity and still mostly struggling
Where’s the beef?
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
A Labor Day update, with the latest on Lowell and Hawaii, the Atlantic, and a deep-ish dive into a somewhat surprise Canadian Maritime flood event. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Monday Miscellany: Lowell, an Atlantic update, and a look at a Cape Breton Island flood
Lowell a direct threat to Hawaii, while Cape Breton cleans up from severe flooding
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
A Saturday update on Hurricane Lowell, which remains a threat to parts of Hawaii. Also, Hurricane Marie will influence a rare September rain to SoCal tomorrow and/or Monday. The Atlantic remains asleep. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Lowell will impact the western Hawaiian Islands after Labor Day while Marie flings some rare September rain toward SoCal
A close call for the western Hawaiian Islands!
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Hurricane Lowell is a very serious concern for Hawaii, and we explain the forecast and what will influence what actualizes this evening. Meanwhile, in the Atlantic? Back to sleep. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Hawaii back in the news, as yet another Pacific storm looms
Hurricane Lowell represents a serious threat to the islands
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
A lot to unpack tonight: Where will Edouard’s flooding risk go tonight? Why brown ocean effect probably was *not* involved with Edouard. Plus a letter of support for a weather model we’re about to decommission that did exceptionally well with Edouard’s rains. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Edouard's rains are not done yet, nor were they necessarily unpredictable
Plus, why Edouard was probably not experiencing the “brown ocean effect.”
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Details on Edouard’s next act as it moves into the Piney Woods and well northeast of Houston. Flash flooding is possible well outside the Houston metro area around Lake Livingston. We explain below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Edouard moving inland as a possible flooding threat after trying its best Gulfmaxxing on approach to Louisiana
Watching parts of the Piney Woods near Lake Livingston for flooding concerns overnight
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Our Tuesday morning update on Edouard as it approaches landfall today near the TX/LA border. It will attempt to intensify in its final few hours over water. We explain the details. Link below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Tropical Storm Edouard begins its final approach toward the Texas-Louisiana border
It’s going to make a go at strengthening before landfall today
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Here’s an evening update on Tropical Depression 5, its road to likely becoming Edouard, the factors involved in how much it may intensify, and what to expect in Texas and Louisiana. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Tropical Depression 5 on the way to becoming Edouard and impacting Texas & Louisiana as a feisty little storm
Some quick strengthening before landfall near Sabine Pass tomorrow
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
The Monday morning update on Invest 97L. While it looks imposing on satellite, it has not quite organized yet. Heavy rain remains the primary concern, and folks in East Texas should keep an eye on things. Link below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Invest 97L, yet to organize, looks to dump some heavy rain east of Houston and west of Beaumont this week
Flash flooding is a concern just east of Houston proper
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Here is a Sunday evening update on Invest 97L, which continues to fester in the Gulf. Development and heavy rainfall chances are increasing, so here’s what we know as of this evening. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Invest 97L inching closer to something more formal Sunday evening
A named storm or depression remains possible, along with increasing heavy rain risk in parts of Texas
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Happy Sunday! Let’s take a dive in and look at Invest 97L, which has appeared in the Gulf this weekend. We also check on Dolly’s chances at redeveloping over the next week or so. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Dolly's remnants, Invest 97L provide low end development potential and some rain chances
Gulf’s 97L has a decent shot at achieving depression status within a day or so.
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Tropical Storm Dolly has degenerated into what should be a modest rainmaker for the parched Caribbean. Will there be an Act II? We discuss today. Below or at theeyewall.com
theeyewall.substack.com
Dolly says hello, Dolly soon says goodbye
But hopefully some needed rain in the Caribbean
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Today, we take a look at Invest 96L’s road ahead and where it should end up in about a week. What’s it all mean? We explain today below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Invest 96L is probably going to hold its own for a little while
We’ve got time to watch this one
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Our Tuesday update takes a look at Invest 96L and its potential future in the Atlantic, which is to say not much probably. We’ve also got a quick look at the Pacific and Invest 95L. Link below or at theeyewall.com!
theeyewall.substack.com
We shall spend our waning summer days watching Invest 96L try to navigate hurdles in the Atlantic
It’s probably going to continue to struggle.
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
The Atlantic is going to undergo another attempt at development this week, but the support? Well, it remains lukewarm. Plus, we take a look at legitimate El Niño hype, a record wet summer in parts of New England, and Hawaii today. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Will anything get going in the Atlantic this time around?
Two areas to watch but very lukewarm support for development
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The Atlantic has a couple minor things to watch over the next 10 days. Meanwhile, focus in the Pacific goes back on Hawaii this weekend with another possible storm approaching. Details below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
A little to watch in the Atlantic, while Hawaii may see another storm this weekend
Watching potential for a tropical storm with heavy rainfall in areas hit by Lala
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Happy Monday! We take a quick look back at Hurricane Lala in Hawaii. The Atlantic, meanwhile, remains void of just about anything notable. Details in our post! Link below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Groundhog Day in the Atlantic with mercifully quiet conditions continuing
Plus, a review of Hurricane Lala in Hawaii
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
The Atlantic is quieting down without a fight, while Tropical Storm Lala is bearing down on the Hawaiian islands. Strong winds, heavy rain, and rough surf will impact the island chain. We have details below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Atlantic risks dissipating, while Lala approaches Hawaii
Heavy rain, strong winds will impact the Hawaiian islands
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Tropical Storm Lala will pass dangerously close to the Big Island of Hawaii, likely as a hurricane this weekend, bringing torrential rain and powerful winds to there and Maui. We detail the impacts. Link below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Tropical Storm Lala anything but boring as it tracks toward Hawaii
A near-direct hit on the Big Island is very possible with significant flooding and wind impacts regardless
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
We discuss why Invests 92L and 94L are not of major concern to anyone right now. We also discuss Hawaii and Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C’s impacts there, expected this weekend. Below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Looking into the Cristobal for Invest 92L and 94L's future and the latest for Hawaii
PTC One-C will bring tropical storm conditions to the Hawaiian Islands this weekend
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
The Atlantic is sorta busy with mostly mediocre development risks. Meanwhile, the Pacific is busier, with risks of impacts to Hawaii from a tropical system growing this weekend. We have the latest below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Middling Atlantic waves create some development chances, while Hawaii should be impacted this weekend by a system
Watching for heavy rain, wind, and even wildfire risks in Hawaii
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
While development odds continue to slowly increase in the Atlantic, the ceiling on what this system can become is not getting any higher. Plus, we take a look at Invest 93C in the Pacific and its situation near Hawaii. Link below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Atlantic development odds slowly increasing, and potential impacts from the Pacific's 93C in Hawaii are growing
The ceiling in the Atlantic remains fairly low.
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Here’s a Sunday update on the development chances in the Atlantic, which have increased some. We also take a look at Hawaii and a potential close pass from a hurricane in the next week or so. Click below or visit theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Atlantic rumbling but not especially menacing, while Hawaii monitors Invest 93C
A potent storm passing south of the Hawaiian Islands is a good possibility
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
The potential exists for our first non-Gulf system of the season, but it’s going to face an uphill battle as it works across the Atlantic. @mattlanza.bsky.social explains below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Atlantic tropics trying to come back to life but it will be an uphill battle
No reason to get too worked up about the Atlantic right now
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
We take a Monday evening check up on the Tropical Atlantic, El Niño’s influence, and how to avoid engagement bait nonsense. Below or at theeyewall.com.
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The quiet Atlantic will continue for the foreseeable future as El Niño tightens its grip
Also, some tips on avoiding engagement bait
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Today, we look at how the rainfall in the Northeast played out and some of the factors involved. We also check on the tropics, which mercifully remain quiet in the Atlantic. Below or at theeyewall.com.
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Recapping an impressive Northeast rain, and looking ahead in the tropics
Double-digit rainfall near Albany, NY without a tropical system? Wild!
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Here’s a Monday evening update on the potential for more serious flash flooding potential on Tuesday between Philadelphia, New York, and New England. We talk about the causes and uncertainty. Below or at theeyewall.com.
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Flooding risks grow between Philadelphia, New York City, and southern New England Tuesday
Flood Watches are posted from northern Delaware through western Massachusetts
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
The tropics are back into sleepy mode for a little while. In the meantime, we take a look at heavy rain and flash flooding potential in the Northeast this week as yet more rain is on the way. Live from Connecticut, it's a Sunday Eyewall post. Link below or at theeyewall.com.
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Quiet tropics, but watching another flooding risk in the Northeast this week
A very unsettled week awaits New York and New England
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Tropical Storm Bertha is heading toward Texas, a glorified blob more than anything. But it’ll still bring (welcome) rains to drier South Texas and some gusty downpours up toward Houston. More details below or at theeyewall.com.
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Bertha hopscotching the western Gulf Coast, heading for its demise tomorrow
Still, it will bring some (mostly welcome) rain to drier parts of Texas
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
A brief update on Bertha this morning, which appears to be slowly in decline. That said, it will bring some rain to Texas, in areas that have not seen nearly that much rain this month, which is mostly welcome news. Read more below or at theeyewall.com.
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Bertha beginning to slowly decline with very modest impacts to Louisiana and Texas expected
Maybe some welcome rain in South Texas
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Tropical Storm Bertha may be near peak intensity this morning in the Gulf. It should weaken as it approaches Louisiana with some rough seas, tidal flooding, and isolated heavy rainfall. Otherwise it’s just a sloppy mess. @mattlanza.bsky.social has details below or at theeyewall.com.
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Bertha likely nearing peak intensity before weakening into Louisiana this week
A lopsided mess of a system but still packs a little punch
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
We take a deep dive on the future of TD 2 this morning and explain why we think this will be a relatively modest system for the Gulf Coast. We discuss impacts, as well as look at a flooding threat in NYC/NJ tomorrow. Also, thanks to all our new subscribers! Link below or at theeyewall.com.
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Tropical Depression 2 trying to make the best of a challenging environment in the Gulf
Plus, a look at flooding risks on Tuesday in the New York City metro & New Jersey.
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
We have an update on ̶I̶n̶v̶e̶s̶t̶ ̶9̶1̶L̶ ̶Tropical Depression 2 this morning, which is looking to have a slightly more interesting future than it appeared yesterday. We explain the changes, scenarios, and model data in this morning’s update below or at theeyewall.com
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Invest 91L likely to develop into something in the Gulf but exactly what kind of something remains elusive
Texas and Louisiana will want to keep tabs on 91L.
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Here’s a Saturday afternoon check up on the increasing development odds in the northeast Gulf. Despite this, we still are not expecting a strong system. We have the details below or at theeyewall.com.
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Saturday afternoon Gulf check up as development odds nudge up a bit
Still not expecting a strong system, however.
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Today, we have an update on the flooding in Texas, including new areas being pounded. We also look at the wildfires and smoke issues across the country. Yes, we discuss climate change. And we look at the tropics in the Gulf below or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Flooding pivots west in Texas, wildfires continue to produce prolific smoke, and the Gulf stays a teensy bit interesting
Climate change is one piece of a complex puzzle
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Hill Country is the focal point for horrible flooding just a year and change after last year’s tragedy. We explain the areas hit, compare to 2025, and discuss where things are going. Plus the latest on smoke blanketing the Northeast and Great Lakes. Read below or at theeyewall.com.
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Another terrible flooding event for Texas Hill Country
The Guadalupe River and Uvalde areas are hardest hit
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Back at it today discussing tropical risks in the Gulf next week, flooding that may worsen in Texas, heat waves in both the East and SoCal, and some other items. Read here or at theeyewall.com.
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Tropical mischief risk remains low, while Texas flooding risk is high
Plus, a heat wave grips the East and SoCal
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The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Happy Hump Day! Checking in on the tropics in early July. Why have forecasts trended even lower with storm activity this season? Plus, we take a look at flooding risks in the Ohio Valley. And we check in on our site after a year on Substack! More there (link below) or at theeyewall.com.
theeyewall.substack.com
Early July Check-up on the tropics and some other miscellany
Plus a happy Substackiversary!
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