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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 2h

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved four races today: Alaska Senate: Toss-up → Leans D Alaska governor: Toss-up → Leans D Oregon governor: Likely D → Leans D South Carolina Senate: Safe R → Likely R By J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik: sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/four-rating-changes-headlined-by

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 3h

At least $9.6 million on Meta and Google political ads launched Sep 29–Oct 5. 27,027 ads on Facebook and Instagram, 3,992 on Google (data through Oct 4). Each one is public: who paid, and roughly how much. Who paid ↓

The Election Newspaper. At least $9.6 million on Meta and Google political ads launched in one week. Ads launched Sep 29 to Oct 5, 2026 on Facebook, Instagram and Google. Meta: 27,027. Google: 3,992 (through Oct 4). Reported spend so far: $9.6M–$14.5M.

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 04/10/2026

Outside groups reported $308 million in spending to the FEC in one week, Sep 27–Oct 3. Texas Senate: $79.7 million. In the 10 Senate races with the most outside spending, 7 of every 10 dollars opposed a candidate. Follow the money: theelectionnewspaper.com/outside-spending?utm_source=bluesky

The Election Newspaper, outside money, Sunday October 4, 2026, 30 days out. $308 million reported in one week. New outside spending reported to the FEC, Sep 27 to Oct 3. Texas Senate: $79.7 million (Paxton (R) for $32.3 million, against $3.4 million; Talarico (D) for $2.2 million, against $41.8 million). Ohio Senate: $51.3 million (Brown (D) for $1.0 million, against $17.9 million; Husted (R) for $17.5 million, against $14.9 million). Michigan Senate: $23.8 million (El-Sayed (D) for $3.2 million, against $13.2 million; Rogers (R) for $1.6 million, against $5.9 million). Iowa Senate: $17.6 million (Hinson (R) for $1.6 million, against $6.9 million; Turek (D) for $0.8 million, against $8.1 million). Maine Senate: $13.8 million (Collins (R) for $0.3 million, against $4.0 million; Jackson (D) for $1.1 million, against $8.3 million). In the 10 Senate races with the most outside spending, 7 of every 10 dollars went to opposing a candidate. Independent expenditures by outside groups, from FEC filings, amendments and repeats removed. theelectionnewspaper.com/outside-spending

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 02/10/2026

“Go in and you finish it.” “Pass a war powers resolution.” Maine’s 2nd District debate: LePage and Dunlap on ending the war in Iran, and on the president. Quotes as reported by Maine Public. See the race and how newsrooms cover it: theelectionnewspaper.com/race/me-house-02-2026?utm_source=bluesky

The Election Newspaper, debate card, Friday October 2, 2026, 32 days out. Headline: Go in and you finish it, or Pass a war powers resolution. Maine's 2nd District, first debate, Thursday on WMTW. On ending the war in Iran: Paul LePage, Republican: "I don’t agree with cease fires. I think cease fires only prolongs. I think you go in and you finish it." Matt Dunlap, Democrat: "…one thing that we could do to help lower the cost of energy very quickly is to pass a war powers resolution and stop this war in Iran…" On working with the president: Paul LePage, Republican: "I know him personally, and I will say right now, I will be able to get into the Oval Office." Matt Dunlap, Democrat: "The job of Congress is to provide oversight of the executive branch." Quotes as reported by Maine Public, Oct 2, 2026. theelectionnewspaper.com/race/me-house-02-2026

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 30/09/2026

Governor races in the news today: California, Florida, Texas, Colorado and Minnesota. MyNewsLA, the Tampa Bay Times, WTXL, the Longview News-Journal, CPR News and MinnPost, in their own words. See how newsrooms across the country are covering the governor races: theelectionnewspaper.com/races

The Election Newspaper, Governor races in the news, Wednesday September 30, 2026, 34 days out. Governor races in the news. "Becerra, Hilton to Debate Wednesday in Burbank", MyNewsLA.com, California, Sep 30. "Is Donald Trump dragging down Florida’s Republican candidates?", Tampa Bay Times, Florida, Sep 30. "Florida gubernatorial candidate Rep. Byron Donalds holds town hall at FAMU", WTXL Tallahassee, Florida, Sep 30. "Democrat Hinojosa tells Longview crowd that race against Abbott ‘a fight we cannot lose’", Longview News-Journal, Texas, Sep 30. "Weiser seeks to motivate Democratic volunteers in Mesa County as canvassing begins", CPR News, Colorado, Sep 30. "What makes Demuth run: The unlikely rise of a category-defying politician", MinnPost, Minnesota, Sep 30. Headlines are the outlets' own, quoted and dated. theelectionnewspaper.com/races

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 30/09/2026

House races in the news: New York, New Hampshire, Utah, Texas and Pennsylvania. JTA, InDepthNH, Deseret News, Roll Call and Spotlight PA, in their own words. See how newsrooms across the country are covering the House races: theelectionnewspaper.com/races

The Election Newspaper, House races in the news, Wednesday September 30, 2026, 34 days out. House races in the news. "Republican incumbent Rep. Lawler and Democrat Conley spar over antisemitism, Israel in lower Hudson Valley debate", JTA, NY-17, Sep 29. "Dems Question DiLorenzo’s Wealth, Reporting; He Blasts Stefany Shaheen’s Pay", InDepthNH.org, NH-1, Sep 29. "McAdams offers a check on Trump. Owen offers a new kind of Republican. Utah voters will decide", Deseret News, UT-1, Sep 29. "A rural Texas district tests Democrats’ quest to expand House map", Roll Call, TX-23, Sep 29. "Pa. election 2026: Where Mackenzie, Brooks stand on tax policies, affordability, and jobs", Spotlight PA, PA-7, Sep 30. Headlines are the outlets' own, quoted and dated. theelectionnewspaper.com/races

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 30/09/2026

Senate races in the news: Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine. KWCH, WTVA, NBC News, Newsweek and the Bangor Daily News, in their own words. See how newsrooms across the country are covering the Senate races: theelectionnewspaper.com/races

The Election Newspaper, Senate races in the news, Wednesday September 30, 2026, 34 days out. Senate races in the news. "Marshall sends cease-and-desist letter in response to Hamilton campaign ad over former patients’ medical debt", KWCH, Kansas, Sep 29. "Colom challenges Hyde-Smith to three debates in Senate race", WTVA, Mississippi, Sep 29. "Democrats eye Nebraska as an opportunity to take a Senate seat away from Republicans", NBC News, Nebraska, Sep 30. "Ashley Hinson Dismisses Iowa Poll After Trump Unveils $15B Steel Project", Newsweek, Iowa, Sep 29. "Maine’s deluge of political ads is crowding out small businesses", Bangor Daily News, Maine, Sep 30. Headlines are the outlets' own, quoted and dated. theelectionnewspaper.com/races

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 30/09/2026

Wednesday's briefing: our Kansas Senate polling average, and five stories in their outlets' own headlines. theelectionnewspaper.com/briefing

The Daily Briefing, Wednesday, September 30, 2026. Kansas Senate, our average of 3 surveys: Adam Hamilton (D) 46.7, Roger Marshall (R) 46.6. 1. “Kansas Republican depicts Democratic opponent as dark blue danger in red-state Senate race” — WFXL – Albany GA, Sep 29. 2. “Republicans look for late wins in Congress as midterm races tighten” — KABB – Fox 29, Sep 29. 3. “Here’s how to register to vote in Texas before the Oct. 5 deadline” — Texas Tribune, Sep 29. 4. “Pentagon joins DOJ in unprecedented effort ahead of election day” — KPIC CBS 4, Sep 29. 5. “Judge blocks FEMA election rules tied to anti-terrorism grants” — BorderReport, Sep 29. Headlines are the outlets' own. The average is ours.

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 29/09/2026

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved 11 House races and 2 governor's races today, each a step toward Democrats. PA-7 and VA-2 go from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. VA-1 goes from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Ratings: Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics centerforpolitics.org/crystalball

The Election Newspaper, Ratings news, Tuesday September 29, 2026, 35 days out. Sabato's Crystal Ball moves 13 races toward Democrats. House: CA-45, Derek Tran (D): Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. KY-6, open seat held by Andy Barr (R): Likely Republican to Leans Republican. ME-2, open seat held by Jared Golden (D): Likely Republican to Leans Republican. MO-2, Ann Wagner (R): Likely Republican to Leans Republican. MT-1, open seat held by Ryan Zinke (R): Likely Republican to Leans Republican. NC-3, Greg Murphy (R): Safe Republican to Likely Republican. OH-15, Mike Carey (R): Safe Republican to Likely Republican. PA-7, Ryan Mackenzie (R): Toss-up to Leans Democratic. VA-2, Jen Kiggans (R): Toss-up to Leans Democratic. VA-5, John McGuire (R): Likely Republican to Leans Republican. VA-1, Rob Wittman (R): Leans Republican to Toss-up. Governor: Nebraska governor, Jim Pillen (R): Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Vermont governor, Phil Scott (R): Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Ratings: Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics, Sep 29, 2026. Their labels, old to new. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 28/09/2026

Leading the news this Monday morning: • The citizenship database for checking voter rolls — Reuters, NBC News, The Salt Lake Tribune • Susan Collins and the Kavanaugh vote — The 19th, AP, MS NOW See how newsrooms across the country are covering both: theelectionnewspaper.com

The Election Newspaper, Leading the news, Monday September 28, 2026, 36 days out. Leading the news this morning. The citizenship database for checking voter rolls: "White House pushes for speedy review of voter rolls in hunt for noncitizen voters", Reuters via SRN News, Sep 24. "Supreme Court allows Trump administration to use expanded database for potential voter purges", NBC News, Sep 25. "Utah will not purge voter lists based on Trump's database, despite Supreme Court ruling", The Salt Lake Tribune, Sep 26. Susan Collins and the Kavanaugh vote: "What Maine women who remember life before Roe are saying about Susan Collins", The 19th via Central Maine, Sep 26. "Supreme Court vote shadows Maine Sen. Susan Collins in her first race after abortion rights decision", AP via KSAT, Sep 27. "Maine voters remember Susan Collins' vote for Kavanaugh, but will that make them vote for Troy Jackson?", MS NOW, Sep 27. Headlines are the outlets' own, quoted and dated. A wire story is credited to the wire and the outlet that carried it. theelectionnewspaper.com

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 26/09/2026

In today's Daily Briefing (Sat, Sep 26): • Susan Collins, via the Bangor Daily News • Abdul El-Sayed, via Bridge Michigan • Trump's campaign travel, via Politico • Our Senate polling averages and FEC outside spending Free every morning, 6 am ET: theelectionnewspaper.com/briefing

The Election Newspaper, The Daily Briefing, Saturday September 26, 2026, 38 days out. In today's briefing. Stories: "Defiant Susan Collins tells supporters to 'debunk the lies' after a tumultuous week", Bangor Daily News, Sep 25. "Abdul El-Sayed under microscope: His record, from public health to podcasts", Bridge Michigan, Sep 25. "Trump will hit several deep-red states in October campaign blitz", Politico, Sep 25. Polling averages, ours: Texas Senate, Talarico 48.1, Paxton 44.6, from 12 surveys plus 1 sponsored. Michigan Senate, El-Sayed 46.9, Rogers 44.1, from 12 surveys plus 2 sponsored. Outside spending, FEC filings dated Sep 24: 764 thousand dollars against Derrick Van Orden, Republican, Wisconsin 3rd district. 650 thousand dollars against Robert Harvie, Democrat, Pennsylvania 1st district. Headlines are the outlets' own. theelectionnewspaper.com/briefing

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 25/09/2026

Next week in election news, Sep 28 to Oct 5: five stories with a date. A House debate in New York. The FEC's fundraising quarter closes. Oregon's governor debate. Mississippi's last redistricting hearing. Registration deadlines in 15 states. One card each in the replies. theelectionnewspaper.com

Next week card from The Election Newspaper: Next week in election news, five stories with a date, Sep 28 to Oct 5, 2026. Monday Sep 28: NY-17, News 12 airs the Lawler-Conley debate. Wednesday Sep 30: the last full fundraising quarter before Election Day closes. Thursday Oct 1: Oregon governor debate, Kotek and Drazan. Thursday Oct 1: Mississippi's last redistricting hearing, Jackson. Oct 4 and 5: regular voter registration closes in 15 states. Footer: dates and details from the outlets named and from official sources, state election offices and the FEC; headlines are the outlets' own, verbatim.

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 25/09/2026

The five election issues trending in our index today. Counted in stories: every outlet that ran the same story counts once. Reporting only; commentary and blogs are not counted. One card per issue in the replies. theelectionnewspaper.com

Trending overview card from The Election Newspaper, Sep 25, 2026, 39 days out. Five election issues trending in our index today, stories in the 24 hours to 10:11 a.m. ET, Sep 25, ranked by volume and rise over the day before. 1. Abortion & Reproductive Rights: 7 stories, 2 the day before. 2. Democracy & Election Integrity: 60 stories, 60 the day before. 3. Election Administration: 26 stories, 20 the day before. 4. Housing: 14 stories, 9 the day before. 5. Ballot Measures & Referenda: 22 stories, 19 the day before. Footer: stories are counted once however many outlets ran them; reporting only, commentary, blogs and advocacy groups are not counted; one card per issue follows, with four of its stories.

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 24/09/2026

Rolling Stone: "Susan Collins Was Target of Federal Bribery Case … Until Trump Gutted the FBI" The Maine Wire: "Liberal Website Revives Collins Allegations Weeks Before Election Day; FBI Dropped Case Under Joe Biden" Same report. Local vs national: theelectionnewspaper.com/cluster/prop...

Card from The Election Newspaper, Five Framings No. 3, September 24, 2026. Five headlines on the ProPublica
report about Susan Collins, in publish order. Rolling Stone, national, Sep 22, 12:55 p.m. ET: "Susan Collins
Was Target of Federal Bribery Case … Until Trump Gutted the FBI". The Maine Wire, Maine, 5:47 p.m.: "Liberal Website Revives Collins Allegations Weeks Before Election Day; FBI Dropped Case Under Joe Biden". Central Maine, Maine, 6:15 p.m.: "What to know about the pay-to-play allegations against Susan Collins". Maine Public, Maine, 7:09 p.m.: "Democrats accuse Susan Collins of 'corruption' following report on alleged pay-to-play scheme". Fox News, national, Sep 23, 3:24 p.m.: "Susan Collins tears into bribery allegations as new claims emerge during critical Senate battle". Footer: the outlets' own headlines, verbatim. In our index as of Sep 24: 21 outlets reporting it themselves, 7 in Maine and 10 national; 39 articles, 11 of them reprints.

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 23/09/2026

Yesterday The Hill reported: Sabato's Crystal Ball moved 3 Senate and 4 governor's races toward Democrats. See how reporters across the country cover the Senate fight this week. Five on the card: theelectionnewspaper.com/cluster/demo...

Five outlet headlines this week on whether the Senate is in play. Scripps News Group, on WXYZ Detroit, Sep 23: "New midterm
polling gives Democrats an edge in battleground states." Forbes, Sep 23: "Online Betting Odds For Democrats Winning The Senate
Soar Amid New Polling." Almanac of American Politics (Louis Jacobson), Sep 23: "The Senate state of play: An updated handicapping
for September 2026." The Blaze, Sep 21: "CNN analyst pours cold water on Democrats' dream of a political takeover in November."
Newsweek, Sep 18: "What Five Major Forecasts Say About Republican Chances of Losing the Senate." Footer: the outlets' own headlines, verbatim; 72 outlets with their own reporting as of this morning, 36 wire copies collapsed, 34 aggregator pickups not counted.

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 22/09/2026

Today in U.S. elections: $130M in ads reserved by groups tied to Trump, a crypto super PAC plans $30M against Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Jared Golden (D) endorses Mike Lawler (R). Nine stories, a rating withdrawn, each linked to its source. theelectionnewspaper.com/briefing

theelectionnewspaper.com

The Daily Briefing — September 22, 2026

Vice President Vance campaigns for GOP ahead of midterm elections · Crypto super PAC to spend $30 million opposing Sherrod Brown in Ohio Senate race

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The Election Newspaper @theelectionnewspaper.com · 20/09/2026

Launched this week. Read all about it. theelectionnewspaper.com

Illustration of 3 people all reading The Election Newspaper. One on her phone on the run, one standing reading an open copy of The Election Newspaper and one sitting at her laptop with a cup of coffee.

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