El Niño will drive severe drought from Indonesia to the Southern Africa and northern South America, with wetter winters from the US Gulf Coast to Southern South America.

We’ve made real progress bending down the curve of emissions, but risks remain far too high for complacency

More water vapor means more rocket fuel for extreme rain — so this record is not good news

Why removing RCP8.5 from the National Climate Assessment would be a serious mistake

Formal attribution is premature, but the collapse happened on a rapidly warming mountain in a valley losing its ice

There are important differences between long-term global warming and El Niño warming

and your lungs, your blood stream, your brain, just about everywhere

Agents use about 600x more energy than simple AI prompts

the 1930s were hot over the U.S. Midwest, but not that hot

Whether 2026 sets a new record is increasingly likely to be a split decision between different groups

With great sorrow, we watch as the Earth is rebuilt into a different, warmer planet.

What happens to the 1930s temperature record after correcting measurement biases and station coverage

Why a viral graph on US days above 95F is misleading and overstates regional warmth

Higher fire season temperatures are strongly correlated with increased area burned

With all the July runs in, dynamical models give a ~90% chance of a record-setting event

Human activity, natural forcings, and internal variability explain the global temperature rise between 1900 and 1945

Perhaps the victory lap for getting rid of RCP8.5 was premature

Sunny days aren't all they're cracked up to be

How science shows us how warming makes heat waves, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires more likely or more severe — and why this science is becoming a major public-policy battleground.

Doubt is still their product

CO2 concentrations have continued to increase – but more slowly than they otherwise would have

a talk I gave on the Climate and Weather Livestream

We should celebrate progress, but not overstate it

An update to my December estimates of global temperatures over the next two years

stranded assets and ghost factories

It depends on how you count it

Five independent fits across four independent archives and 66 million years — the empirical case in two figures

a chapter from my upcoming textbook

the Earth may eventually turn into Venus, but not anytime soon

The latest models show a much greater chance of a strong – or even super – El Nino developing later this year

Why I may have been a tad premature in my 2026 prediction.

our reliance on fossil fuels makes us less safe

it died in a footnote

The promise and pitfalls of using AI tools to boost my capabilities as a scientist

Sometimes it just gets cold

When the politics of affordability meet the needs of climate mitigation

The biggest stories of 2025 and a few predictions for 2026

The best thing about predicting the near future is you don't need to wait long to be wrong

It’s not just wetter storms—it’s also the important shift from snow to rain

The latest generation of climate models shows too much long-term warming but better reproduces recent trends

Assume your turkey is a sphere of water ...

Will the AI future inadvertently recenter expertise?

They pump your water, toast your bread, and move your car: Understanding the 'embedded energy' that powers our modern lives.

The world still seems on track for below 3C this century, though large uncertainties remain

Substituting short lived climate pollutants like methane for CO2 as carbon offsets risks breaking the math of net zero

Mike Wallace says reality is bad enough. Catastrophe-versus-hoax framing obscures the momentous dangers from unabated greenhouse-gas heating.

Regional exceptions like the 1930s in the continental US notwithstanding

mistaking detection for emergence