iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 26/03/2026

The @iea.org has released its Energy Technology Perspectives 2026 report today. Pleased to have contributed to it with ExoPeak. Recent developments in energy markets continue to highlight how urgent the transition is. This report provides valuable perspectives on the options ahead.

110 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 13/10/2025

Excellent piece by the @financialtimes.com on the formidable expansion of battery storage capacity globally. With costs continuing to drop, BESS will likely scale faster than renewables did, as their rollout is less constrained by grid stability concerns.

010 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 27/05/2025

This is sad news. It's also very ironic to see the AAI state that "EV sales mandates were never achievable" in the US when you look at where most other developed countries stand...

121 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 27/05/2025

Thanks for sharing. This is sad news. It's also very ironic to see the AAI state that "EV sales mandates were never achievable" in the US when you look at where most other developed countries stand...

010 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 21/05/2025

Thanks for sharing. As a side note, this has to be one of the worst charts I've seen in a while.

160 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 21/05/2025

Finally, critical minerals have become a “hot topic”, with VCs now investing in startups focused on expanding supply. Battery and waste recycling and new extraction methods attract virtually all investments. I hope we’ll see plenty of exciting innovations in the coming months/ years.

010 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 21/05/2025

Sodium-ion is the only battery technology that could offer the West a semblance of grip over the supply chain, thanks to its abundant and widely distributed feedstock. Yet its market presence remains limited (cf. previous chart), and China also dominates the downstream production stages.

110 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 21/05/2025

Emerging battery tech is gaining ground - in particular LFP. Bypassing China’s dominance was a major driver of battery tech R&D and investment, but in the case of LFP, China’s control is even stronger.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 21/05/2025

Another point that is not new, but worth re-stating: despite rapid growth in global mining capacity, copper remains a concern. A 30% supply shortfall is projected by 2035 under current policies due to falling ore grades and long lead times.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 21/05/2025

China’s leadership creates supply security risks for other countries – which have been very visible in the recent months. See below the impact that recent export restrictions had on prices.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 21/05/2025

There are multiple reasons behind China’s leadership. To name a few: control over extraction, strong gov subsidies that allowed rapid supply expansion and growing vertical integration of Chinese energy technology companies. The chart below can serve as a partial illustration of that last point.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 21/05/2025

With the (relative) exception of copper and nickel, China now leads refined production of all key critical minerals. Not new, but always worth re-stating.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 21/05/2025

This is explained by simple supply-demand dynamics, illustrated below with the example of lithium. Global lithium demand surged nearly 30% in 2024 - three times the 2010s average - but supply grew even faster, rising by 40% and outpacing demand.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 21/05/2025

Prices for key battery metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel declined significantly in 2024 as supply growth outpaced demand. Lithium prices fell over 80% from their 2022 peak. Interestingly, the exact opposite is happening for base metals.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 29/03/2025

Thanks for sharing, Chris. To be fair, receiving countries likely won’t miss it if the West stops. Aid was always more about influence than help, creating debt, dependence, and markets for our goods. The main downside is that China will likely fill the gap and push its own agenda (cf. map below).

000 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 07/03/2025

Thin-film PVs like the ones Sekisui is trying to scale still have *many* shortcomings, especially in terms of yield. Yet, these concerns may lessen if steep tariffs are placed on Chinese PVs, and generous subsidies are given to Western thin-film PV manufacturers.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 07/03/2025

Japan is particularly interesting. They have committed to provide Sekisui with €1bn worth of subsidies to further develop perovskite PV. These can be produced with less reliance on China. Their main ingredient is iodine, of which Japan is the world's second-largest producer, after Chile.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 07/03/2025

As a result, we're seeing a race to the bottom in terms of price/ margins. This is one of the drivers behind LONGi's recent earnings slip for instance.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 07/03/2025

Tables seem to be turning though. State-sponsored subsidies have twisted the sector's economics, to the point where China's total PV manufacturing capacity now largely exceeds current global demand.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 07/03/2025

Some of these profits have also been reinvested in the vertical integration and consolidation of China's top PV players. Again, this allowed for greater competitiveness vs. other countries.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 07/03/2025

State subsidies and low domestic power prices are the two other key drivers of China's success. Both have allowed Chinese players to consistently undercut competitors, while still making healthy profits and ramping up volume that allowed for greater economies of scale.

110 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 07/03/2025

Control over polysilicon production is one of the main reasons behind China's success in the PV market. They produce >80% of the polysilicon in the world, which is a key component for crystalline PV production.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 07/03/2025

20 years ago, China produced ≈5% of PV panels. Today, they dominate with >80% in all manufacturing stages. Despite this growth, the outlook seems gloomy for Chinese players. A few thoughts on what sparked this growth, what's happening now and how the West is pushing back amid rising tensions.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 13/02/2025

Unclear whether we'll scale on time, but there are some positive signs with significant investment flowing into the battery recycling industry, and ambitious policies. The EU Battery Regulation for instance sets mandatory targets for the share of recycled lithium, nickel and cobalt.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 13/02/2025

All those issues are set to get more pressing, as the production volumes of battery and the demand for associated materials sky rocket.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 13/02/2025

Finally, the environmental impact of mining the materials found in batteries has mostly been overlooked thus far. Growing constraints on energy and water supply could drive recycling rates up, as recycling has a >50% lower environmental impact than conventional mining.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 13/02/2025

Also, the materials found in batteries are predominantly sourced from just a few countries. Recent global tensions have exposed the supply security risks this concentration causes, and the potential of recycling to reduce these risks. Cobalt flows shown below are a good example.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 13/02/2025

Another closely related point, is scarcity. Several materials found in batteries will soon be in short supply, unless new feedstock acquisition routes are found. See example below for lithium.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 13/02/2025

So far, it was cheaper and simpler to simply extract virgin raw materials. It still largely is the case, but the financial equation may start to make more sense as the materials involve get pricier. Here's an illustration with the price of copper.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 12/02/2025

The next European energy crisis could come from extreme climate events, rather than geopolitics. Intensifying droughts, floods, and water shortages put energy systems under pressure. Investments are required to make infrastructure more resilient and avoid widespread disrputions and blackouts.

010 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 03/01/2025

About half of all water supplied by utilities gets lost, primarily because of leaks across networks. This number keeps getting worse every year, and so do droughts and water scarcity. Water network modernization can no longer wait.

042 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 25/11/2024

With Black Friday around the corner, let these 2 charts serve as a reminder that buying less stuff is the #1 way you can contribute to tackling the climate crisis.

23015 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 22/11/2024

Finally, and most importantly: continued trend of decoupled emission growth vs. GDP growth. This stands true when accounting for imported emissions (a third of EU’s current total). Inflation is also already baked in.

021 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 22/11/2024

Fossil fuels still account for 71% of energy consumption. This should improve as energy sovereignty continues to be a priority. Yet, many counter-arguments must be fought for it to happen at scale (eg, impact on the EU's coal industry, dependence on China for renewables, and stranded O&G assets).

120 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 22/11/2024

Renewable power has been one of the main reduction drivers. It’s now the biggest source of power in the EU (38%), followed by nuclear (22%).

131 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 22/11/2024

Overall, the EU's emissions were reduced by 33% vs. 1990. For reference, it took the US 10 more years to achieve a similar reduction (in %), while starting from a baseline that was less streamlined.

110 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 22/11/2024

A few thoughts on the EU's very first Biennial Transparency Report on Climate published yesterday. Read it here: climate.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...

193 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 21/11/2024

Also, to make our matter worse: while storms have historically been responsible for most of the overall losses, they are slowly being taken over by wildfires (i.e., extra CO2e release).

0188 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 21/11/2024

Reinsurance data offers one of the best proxies of the worsening climate crisis. This chart shows the evolution of insured losses related to natural disasters - from almost none, to a significant amount every year.

34820 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 20/11/2024

Yes, by (very) macro-sector, and you are correct: power contributed the most to the overall reduction. See a few in this table.

010 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 20/11/2024

The EU ETS continues to succeed. In 2023, sectors targeted by the scheme saw reduced their emissions by 16.5% in 2023, while generating €44bn revenue to support climate action among members states. See the full 2023 report published today: climate.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...

110 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 20/11/2024

Climate Policy & Action: "Designing Climate Solutions" by Hal Harvey, @robbieorvis.bsky.social and @jeffrissman.bsky.social. Significantly more approachable than most policy-oriented books out there, yet comprehensive. Again, packed with plenty of useful case studies.

041 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 20/11/2024

Water access: "Water Politics" by @farhanasultana.com. Demonstration of the flaws of current solutions (e.g., bottled water), and great ideas of new alternative solutions (e.g., personhood to rivers). Packed with plenty of case studies.

2145 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 20/11/2024

Oceans & Cryosphere: "The Atlas of Disappearing Places" by Christina Conklin and Marina Psaros. Very different format than previous entries (less of a textbook), but still excellent at explaining the impact of climate change on marine environments. Bonus: pairs well with any coffee table.

110 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 20/11/2024

Agriculture & Food Systems: "Regenesis" by @georgemonbiot.bsky.social. This book sold me on the idea that low-impact agriculture could be commercially viable and scalable - assuming it's coupled with a few demand-side changes.

110 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 20/11/2024

Energy & Renewables: "Climate Change and Renewable Energy" by Martin J. Bush. The best outline of the harmful impacts of fossil fuels, and the possible solutions I've read. Great policy section too, esp. on the role of the US in sabotaging most negotiations thus far.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 20/11/2024

General Introduction: "The Climate Crisis" by David Archer and @rahmstorf.bsky.social. 15-year-old this year, but still excellent to get introduced to all key climate concepts. This was my first climate book ever.

100 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 20/11/2024

I knew insurers were early in understanding climate risks, but I didn’t realize just how early. This text, highlighting CO2’s role in climate change, comes from a 1973 (!) paper by Munich Re.

022 0

Teymour Bourial @teymour.me · 19/11/2024

Sharp disconnects between the level of noise, and the level of impact are often the sign of lobbies at play. CCUS is a good example: lots of noise, for a technology that currently captures ≈0.1% of global emissions, and will rise to ≈0.5% if all planned developments go through.

020 0