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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Solio team strength grid I’m currently working with fwiw

Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Got greedy. Both FTs used - Muñoz and Barry for Ajer and JP. Hopefully the 2.5 itb and deep bench helps me to survive the FT without a crisis.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Never been happier to be drastically wrong 😂

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Andoni Iraola has been my favorite manager in the Premier League since Jürgen. Speaks so well, magnetically likeable (even from PCs) and Bournemouth’s transformation under him was incredible. I’m so glad we have him. It’s going to hurt bad if it doesn’t work out, but I’m very hopeful it will. YNWA

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Very slick performance and took it easy in the 2nd half but 1.8 xG at home vs a promoted side is maybe a 🤏 premature for a victory lap bud 😉

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

I’ve seen people going off on Coventry for that performance but didnt seem too bad to me. Suspect Hull will say “hold my beer” tomorrow.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Excited for another Premier League and FPL season! I'm starting a bit greedily this season, BB2 + pretty likely WC3 is the plan.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Update: my "path less traveled" BB ended up being BB9 - lucked into my GW1 4.5 fwd having good xmins for a good fix, combined with a ~good fixture for both my GKs. EV on bench was ~13, didn't impact my transfers before or after, scored 14. Overall, happy with taking the opportunistic BB approach.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

Given Brentford's track record, I lean that the latter is more likely than the former (and as an aside, I think the markets are way too low on Brentford's prospects this season) but as a non-partisan observer I'm very excited to watch it play out.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

Or Brentford could do Brentford things to soften Dango's weaknesses and accentuate his strengths, find creativity from other areas, and turn him into a >0.40 xG winger whose goal output more closely approximates those underlyings.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

It might be that Frank was critical, they don't have enough progressive passing with two black holes on that front on each wing and they become completely dysfunctional as an attacking unit. All of which would likely make this signing a disaster and relegate him to the bench, or relegate Brentford.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

Dango should now get full-time starter minutes for the first time in his career and I think he's got about the lowest floor AND the highest ceiling of any ~40-60 million purchase this season.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

But Brentford have a track record of developing far worse 23 year old attackers (check out Mbeumo's bars aged 23) and have a guy who made a huge leap last season to look a lot like a slightly lesser version of Dango, who will likely play on the opposite side to him this season (Schade bars below).

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

But the one I'm most excited by is Dango Ouattara to Brentford: Fascinating attacker Special skills: intelligent off the ball running,workrate, taking people on, high pressing, aerial ability, lots of high quality shots His flaws are: everything about his passing is bad! and (maybe) a -ve finisher

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

Most interesting intra-PL transfer of this summer has a lot of candidates: Will Eze (who is incredible) fit okay into arsenal's system? Kudus potential could be unlocked now he seems to be given a position within a structure Will Joao Pedro and Delap make Chelsea better than they were w/Jackson?

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

By over here I meant Blue Sky. But yes a decent contingent of fantasy premier league players are based in the US, like me

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

Ha - a niche community that’s obsessive about fantasy premier league made its way over here a while back and some of us nerds are very in the weeds on strategy to hide from what’s going on in the wider world. Your funny reply earned a follow 👍🏻

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

thanks mate. you were always my fave fantasy champ man live watchalong host 🫶

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

And I like to take risk with chip strategies when the spread of possible outcomes looks like that and BB1 is going to be the most popular (I think)

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

I'd say there's roughly a 50/50 chance that BB1 turns out to be the hindsight optimal play, but I think the expected points gain from the best of later BB options in the worst case is ~10, and the ceiling is more like ~15-16.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

But there are lots of things that will happen which will change the value of later BBs. BB booster events are e.g. an unforeseen blank/double, an amazing min price FWD emergence, cheap DEF/MID getting pens. BB killers would be an injury crisis, low-priced players being even worse than we thought.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

Kind of. Models are telling us that BB1 is worth ~11-12 expected points over the best "no chip played" plans. It's saying that, with the information we have right now, that's probably a bit better than later BB plans.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

It seems BB1 will be popular. Given the EV differences between any and all chip strategies in the first half look like they will be quite low, but there are (fairly remote) upside cases for later chip strategies, I think I will prefer to choose outcome polarization and take a path less traveled (🌍)

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

2. The value of these extra first half chips is also lower than we are used to. BB1 looks like a good strategy right now, but things will change as the season goes on which will inevitably either improve or worsen all the future GW BB opportunities.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

So I think that means the number of opportunities to grab more points by chasing fixture runs, and the average magnitude of the best ones that do still exist, has gone down; and b) we have 3 more FTs! (+4 AFCON FTs less 1FT lost to an extra FH week). More supply = lower price.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

Some big picture thoughts on #fpl 🧵: 1. The value of our free transfers to start the season is a bit lower than it's ever been before because a) defcon points decreases the impact that fixture difficulty has on expected points for a lot of viable picks (defenders and CMs).

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 23/07/2025

I’m going to disagree here re: mins or position risk, as I think AWB was potentially West Ham’s best player and had the best season of his career, as a two way player, last season. Would be very surprised to see potter push him into a different position, or out of the team.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 23/06/2025

Pretty confident we’ll have a live relegation race in 25-26 much later than we’ve seen in recent years

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 12/06/2025

I wasn't trying to refute the article at all. He's an interesting / unusual attacker, but 60m feels like too much. I was noting that the 1 yard pass that was cited as stats farming was actually an example of a LBP received and completed, which were (rightly imo) identified as his greatest strengths!

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 12/06/2025

Terrific and succinct write up of Joao Pedro - a very hard player to profile! One note: that 1 yard assist in the centre circle was a delicious layoff off a long ball which put Mitoma in for a one on one vs. SOU (h) - probably one of the clips that illustrates what potential suitors love about him!

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

DGW25 including AVLLIV and ARSCHE (on a contingent basis) was a surprise, but this DGW32 announcement for CRYNEW is bigger. There's been a complete change in PL rescheduling policy: no preference between rescheduling in open midweeks vs. European midweeks and prioritization of notice for fans.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

My econ 101 textbooks 20 years ago said tariffs create dead-weight loss and threaten comparative advantage. Feels bad.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

Fixture info that you have to react to quickly is my favorite bit of FPL. Had 3 LIV already and decided to just play AM on moyes and roll 2 FTs. But there are lots of other cool, well figured out strategies. And there will be loads more after the CC semi results next week. Good luck all

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

Kluivert has scored some lovely goals recently and has pens, but he's had an extraordinary amount of those so far (pens make up a whopping 0.30 of his 0.51xg90). And as noted in the thread, I have medium term mins concerns there that may not be fully appreciated, so he's marginally my least favorite

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

They are all tremendous value right now! Who you might want to pick probably depends more on budget constraints (what you can do with savings of going Dango over the other two) and horizon (e.g. how likely to WC30).

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

Much more I could ramble on about re: my views on Bournemouth and their players (e.g. they have benefited from an evolution in PL reffing which is letting more stuff go imo), but I really enjoy watching them play, and I hope they keep it up (this weekend excepted) and make Europe next season. 🍒

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

It's important to note though that Tavernier CAN operate centrally - 5 of his 13 starts this season have come at 10. If all of Tav, Evanilson, Dango, Kluivert and Semenyo are simultaneously fit then (imho) the minutes that Tavernier "steals" will come fairly equally out of both Kluivert and Dango.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

Dango's attacking production and the effectiveness if the press with him involved in recent weeks should have earned him more minutes though. He might well just keep a starting spot and move to the wing, or he could drop to the bench for effective relief of Evanilson (who never last 90).

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

Iraola has always liked Tavernier - he is a very good creative passer and the best set piece taker at the club. The below radar is the standard fbref radar for AMs/Wingers, which showcases more of what Tav does really well relative to Dango. He's not as ferocious a presser, but not bad either.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

Evanilson is still the best starting option at 9 and will start once fit imo. Semenyo is nailed as the all-around attacker Iraola trusts the most, and Dango won't be used centrally further back. So his biggest competition for wing minutes will be Tavernier, who recently returned from injury.

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

This is slightly less important as a number 9, and he has really excelled in the 4 games (incl. FA cup) as the emergency backup for that position after Evanilson and Unal's injuries (Iraola has a great an eye for finding a solution). However, when Evanilson returns, what will happen to his minutes?

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Alastair McKeever @tedlassoregen.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

2 important caveats - 24% of his mins and 44% of xG has come as a sub (which notoriously inflates per 90s), and his xAG flatters him as a creator. His xA is almost 50% lower and passing is a significant weakness of his, probably a key reason he's never nailed down a starting wing role under Iraola.

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