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Tony Cani

@tcani.bsky.social
1.1K followers 466 following 201 posts

I’m a political & comms consultant based in AZ. I mainly post about the right-wing extremists in my state & election math & polling & the Phoenix Suns.

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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
For two straight Governor cycles in AZ, Hobbs not debating seems like a pretty smart trap. Her opponents in 22 and 26 both gleefully leap off message and can't talk about anything other than the debate of debates. And voters truly don't care.
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Matt Ortega @mattortega.com · 18/08/2026
The people who say tearing down monuments to traitors is erasure of history also deny teaching facts about the Holocaust.
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Trisha Thoon @arrested-az.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
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Jason Concepcion @netw3rk.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Hegseth: Our fighting men understand that hardship is part of the warrior ethos. As it says in the bible: "In prison, dinner was always a big thing. St Paul had a wonderful system for doing the garlic. He used a razor and he'd slice it so thing it would liquefy in the pan."
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
I don't know. This might prove me wrong in some cases. Those logos, I wonder if they worked against them. I soften some on my street signs hate when there is a single issue on a ballot. Here TPUSA may have made the slate appear like one single issue by branding it?
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
I don't think they have wake-up calls. I used to always hope they’d wake up.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
They are way more than just an org that does events at college campuses, especially here in Arizona. For years I've been warning about their destructive influence and power, and they now have more money than they ever have before. Guaranteed they will improve their operation after this.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
I'm loving the much-deserved victory lap clean energy candidates are getting after they crushed TPUSA in SRP water board elections A flag of caution for the rest of us, though. They won because they refused to underestimate TPUSA. So, we can't let their win ease us into a "TUPSA is no threat" trap.
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Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
This “lawmakers remain at a stalemate” framing is all over the place and is so bad. While technically accurate, it’s misleading and a disservice to readers. If Senate Rs, Senate Ds, & House Ds agree to something, but House Rs keep that deal from getting to Trump, the framing should reflect that.
Shutdown record
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The DHS funding lapse becomes the longest shutdown in U.S. history at 44 days as lawmakers remain at a stalemate on finding a resolution
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Just as an experiment: reply with reasons you’re heard others say Talarico won. It doesn’t have to be a reason you agree with. Just any you’ve seen or heard. I think we are in the midst of the biggest example of empty analysis to confirm priors I’ve seen. But that might be my prior.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Veep, but for Fascists.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
Very unreliable to do it this way but going back and looking at some other players w broken hands, it seems to be a 5-8 week recovery. So that means end of March at best last day of play-in if 8 weeks. 😭
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Mike Sacks @mikesacks.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Now that SCOTUS has sided against Trump on tariffs, say it with me:
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Constitutional amendment. I'd be down.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Also: Maybe we shouldn't use polling to tell us where to be on civil rights & instead use polling to develop a long term plan that moves the public to where they should be on civil rights. That is a major difference between how we use polling and the how the bad guys use polling. Short v long-term.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Makes MAGA sad when you point out it wasn't a dem poll. Grain of salt w these results since it was around a 500 person sample. Which is a bit small for my taste.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
This poll was paid for by the advocacy arm of the very right-wing Foundation for Govt Accountability. Also showed Dem AG Kris Mayes +9 over Glassman & +7 over Sen Pres Petersen. Some crosstabs and all questions here: excellenceinpolling.com/wp-content/u...
excellenceinpolling.com
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
A crucial aspect of this story is that Cota got appointed by the far right Maricopa County Superintendent, an elected office that pretty much exists to fill school board vacancies. Choosing guys like Cota to ruin public ed is her whole thing. She’s up for reelection in 28.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
I think so!
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Brooks has to pass there.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
I keep thinking about how I was on a KTAR show a few days after the 24 election and two well known local conservatives (neither super maga) said on the air they weren’t worried about things because the billionaires backing Trump would keep him in check. I gotta find the clip.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Pack it up everyone!!! They fixed it all!! democracy for America has an emergency billboard campaign over in Minneapolis!! JUST WAIT UNTIL THOSE FEDS READ THAT BILLBOARD!! Tyranny is stopped in its tracks!
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
They’re not trying to convince anyone their BS about Pretti is true. They don’t care what you think. The point is to attack the very idea that facts exist. Guys like Stephen Miller know history. They know the crucial first step toward authoritarianism is destabilizing truth.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
They don’t lie this brazenly to change our minds about what we see with our own eyes. They lie like this so their disinfo network knows exactly what to repeat over and over and over again until Americans give up too exhausted to keep fighting for the truth We can’t give up.
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Trisha Thoon @arrested-az.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
An all timer.
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Trisha Thoon @arrested-az.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
media.tenor.com
a group of people are running through a field with the words `` your firearms are useless '' written on the bottom .
ALT: a group of people are running through a field with the words `` your firearms are useless '' written on the bottom .
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 13/09/2025
They totally control the GOP out here in AZ and spent nearly $100 mil last cycle around the country. They’ve had organized campaigns against mlk, efforts to end the civil rights act, they applauded employees who assaulted a queer asu professor, and so much more.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 13/09/2025
On the topic of TPUSA specifically this has been a massive challenge I’ve been screaming about for years. National reporters treat them like some podcast company that goes to college campuses to own the libs. They think TPUSA and Kirk are same as Ben Shapiro. That is far from the case.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 13/09/2025
This may have been true 30 years ago. But it isn’t true today. Your claim only works if we assume that they don’t have their own very active information eco system. Which of course they do. We could ignore them forever and their message would still go out to huge audiences, but now unchallenged.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 13/08/2025
the thing everyone is going to have to accept is that the post-trump period, whenever it comes, will not and cannot be a project of national unity, it must be a project of partisan project of renewal, in the same way that reconstruction and the new deal were partisan projects of renewal.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
There is an epidemic of Democrats dismissing extremely dangerous and very troubling actions by Trump as “just a distraction.” It really has to stop.
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AZ Attorney General Kris Mayes @azagmayes.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Warren Petersen is using his position as Sen. President to threaten and intimidate Sen. Analise Ortiz for exercising her 1st Amendment rights. That’s not leadership—it’s bullying. I know he’s only been a lawyer for a year and a half but he needs a CLE on the Bill of Rights.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 05/08/2025
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 03/08/2025
one of the most obvious lies imaginable (that wasn’t reported as such by our political press corps)
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Trisha Thoon @arrested-az.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
While every GOP elected official in AZ sat by & kissed up to Trump, our AG @krismayes.bsky.social sued his admin to release these illegally blocked funds. This is the “lAWfaRe” they’re coming after her for. www.azcentral.com/story/news/l...
azcentral.com
'Heartfelt request': Why an Arizona Republican wrote to Trump about withheld school funds
"Mr. President, this is ... a heartfelt request to correct policies that are unintentionally harming rural communities," the letter said.
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Claudia Koerner @claudiakoerner.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Discovered I've still got press releases in my inbox about Trump's Sharpie drawings selling at auction, but sure, he doesn't draw pictures www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-...
Donald Trump’s Signed Sketch of the Manhattan Skyline Auctioned for $29,184

LOS ANGELES, July 27, 2017 – Donald Trump’s sketch of the Manhattan skyline, which prominently features his Trump Tower in the center sold tonight for $29,184 by Nate D. Sanders Auctions on July 27, 2017.  

The sketch drew 11 bids. 

The future president Donald J,. Trump sketched the 11.5” x 9” drawing at a 2005 charity event. Pitney Bowes had Trump, John McCain, Joe Lieberman, Ben Affleck, Charlize Theron, Joe Torre, Jennifer Gardner and others design art to support literacy. The prints were auctioned through eBay. 

Trump signed his name “Donald J Trump” with a gold marker. 

Bidding on the sketch began at $9,000.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Agree. Reporting is often erasing her qualities when talking about why she won by so much. Candidates matter! I mean look at who got 3rd. Proof.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
I’ll push back some on this. There is zero data to argue the presence of Hogg himself could impact an election one way or another. I very seriously doubt more than 15% of even an odd year primary electorate (which includes more high efficacy voters than say a presidential) even know who he is.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
I think lots of lazy reporting is happening for sure. But I’ve also seen a lot of pnline progressives argue that Bernie and the coalition Grijalva built are the establishment. Do you think Hogg is the establishment? (I don’t) He was pushing this message too.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
It’s nuts to me when you all call Grijalva establishment. Ya he was in congress for a long time but dude wasn’t a prolific fundraiser. He constantly bucked leaders. He often would be the lone endorser when all his colleagues went another way. Ie early for Howard Dean first for Bernie Sanders etc
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
I don’t think it was because they didn’t like Deja Foxx. I think it is because they really liked Adelita. She has been in public office locally for a long time and has always been a reliable fighter.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Deja Foxx raised good money, were those digital ads outside the district designed for that? Or was there some other strategic reason? Or just a targeting error by whoever did the buys? I’m not playing dumb here, maybe there was a reason. I want to know. I’ve been confused about this for a few weeks
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Already lots of silly takes about why Deja Foxx TikTok & media hype didn’t translate to votes Well, it kind of did! Just not enough! Getting 20% from 0% in 100 days while the 3rd place guy spent $1 mil is wild! The real question is why did the Foxx campaign advertise so much outside the district?
nytimes.com
A Scion of Democratic Politics Defeats the Upstarts in an Arizona Primary
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
If Adelita Grijalva stays close to 60% its worth noting that her support grew during the race despite the emergence of an unexpectedly strong 3rd candidate in Deja Foxx who got unlimited earned media late, not to mention Daniel Hernandez spending over $1,000,000. That’s a sign of a good campaign.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
You forgot about the $1 million he spent along the way.
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Have an update?
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Tony Cani @tcani.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
An evergreen truth in AZ politics is many national orgs don’t understand how elections work here. Out of state pundits didn’t realize the futility of Hogg’s massive but very late investment. By the time Leaders We Deserve started spending in AZ7, probably 65-75% of all votes were already cast.
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