Ukraine’s EU path faces major political and economic hurdles, but a peace deal could turn accession from a distant goal into a strategic necessity for Europe.

Imagine the outlook for EM if, at the outset of the Trump presidency, one would have suggested:

Frozen Russian assets anyone?

Trump likely needs to change the news cycle from Iran

Just reading thru the report in Miriam Adelson’s Hayom news platform indicating that Israeli officials have been studying the terms of NATO Article 5 defence as it relates to Turkiye.

The Mecca Agreement - a Q&A

And it’s only going to get worse, much worse

One thing is certain - the NATO summit this week will be a Trump love fest from European NATO nations, and led by Mark Rutte, the NATO Secretary General and celebrated Trump whisperer.

Higher military budgets alone will not solve Europe's security challenges unless governments rethink how they prepare for modern warfare

Excuse my French

A wholesale rethink is needed to kick start investment

I frequently get asked to provide big picture takes on my Türkiye view, and I tend to find a Q&A format the best way to summarise these.

And that’s precisely the point

The Business · Episode

As it current defence is not fit for purpose

Російські економісти і радники Путіна дедалі наполегливіше доносять до нього необхідність пошуку мирного врегулювання

Europe gives good conference

For the first time in the 4.5 years of the war, it feels as if Putin might actually be willing to talk seriously about a peace in Ukraine.

Trump’s war on Iran increasingly looks set to end in the U.S.

Periods of uncertainty in terms of the oil price outlook typically bring debate about the benefits of Gulf states depegging from the U.S.

Timothy Ash, associate fellow with Chatham House, joins Aine to discuss the US Defence Department's plans to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany, following a clash between President Donald Trump and Ge...

YouTube video by Silicon Curtain

Harsh criticism of ongoing disinflation program misses the bigger picture, given clear gains already delivered in inflation, overall fiscal stability

YouTube video by Frontline

I spent the last few days at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum (ADF) in Türkiye, where most conversations predictably ended up focusing on the war in Iran, and the wider Middle East, Lebanon and Gaza includ...

To defend itself, and others

We all need to just move on

Higher energy prices and the US decision to ease sanctions on Russian oil have given Moscow a windfall that could help to sustain its war in Ukraine.

YouTube video by KI Insights

What is he willing to do to stay in power?

For me the two most important elections globally this year will be midterms in the US in November, and elections in Hungary on April 12.

Ragip Soylu had a great piece in Middle East Eye today where he compares Trump’s hard core fifteen point peace plan list to how Moscow has negotiated hard ball in Russia - Ukraine talks, ultimately se...

Trump seems to have realised that in starting the war with Iran, he has bitten off more than he can chew.

Find the choke point

Assessing the geopolitical, military and economic spillover effects of the Iran conflict on Russia’s war against Ukraine.

What is now pretty clear is that we are seeing a battle for endurance and supply chains in ballistic missile, drones and anti missile and anti drone space as this war in Iran plays out.

This multipolar world that Trump, Putin et al appear to be trying to create does not seem to be creating a safer and more predictable world - quite the opposite if we think of the situation with the o...

Award winning Sitrep brings you discussion and analysis on defence, foreign policy and the stories affecting the British Forces. Presented by Kate Gerbeau, with expert analysis from Professor Michael ...

For me the two most important elections globally this year will be midterms in the US in November, and elections in Hungary on April 12.

Four years to the day from the start of Putin’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, and close to 12 years since the annexation of Crimea, and it’s worthwhile looking back at how far from a win this is all...

Viktor Orban is facing his biggest political challenge for two decades when he goes to the polls on April 12 - the opposition Tisza party, and its leader Peter Magyar, have a ten point lead on Orban’s...

The year since JD Vance’s Munich Security Conference reading of the riot act to Europe has seen relations between the US and Europe lurch from one crisis to another.

Recording of earlier livestream of my weekly livestream with Jonathan Fink

Thinking thru scenarios now for the on-going war in Ukraine:

The FT is reporting today that Zelensky is likely to announce elections and a referendum on any peace agreement concluded under the current Trump peace initiative.

In an increasingly uncertain and fractured world, how to gauge geopolitical risk going forward?

I spent the last few days in Turkiye meeting with think tanks, analysts, journalists and diplomats trying to better understand the Turkiye story.

It’s a read my lips moment, Trump’s Ukraine peace talks are just not serious.

Turkiye and the UK have much more in common when it comes to defence and national security interests than perhaps at any time in recent history.

But China is the ultimate winner