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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

But as @wriclimate.bsky.social and others seek to reimagine “climate diplomacy in a messy world” (www.wri.org/climate-dipl...), understanding how countries leverage climate politics to influence their negotiating partners is as critical as ever.

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

When we conducted our interviews, the US was still in the Paris Agreement, and the world was between two of the oil supply shocks that have come to punctuate the 2020s. It’s fair to say the context for climate policy has shifted.

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Most of these strengthen ambition, but countries worried about preserving credibility set safer (i.e. less ambitious) targets. And priorities vary by country: Large emitters and less democratic states are more credibility-driven than others.

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

From 40 in-depth interviews with ministers, heads of delegation, and other NDC insiders, six strategic objectives emerge - among them, attracting climate finance, enhancing international status, and preserving long-term credibility.

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

How do countries set climate targets? The standard account implies a technical calculation (project future emissions, estimate reductions) filtered through domestic politics. But that neglects how targets also serve as a tool countries use to influence each other.

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

In any case, the Global Stocktake should encourage governments and advocates to take a cold, hard look at the political factors that are keeping them from delivering on their commitments, and prioritize their reform. 15/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

But the failure of developed countries to deliver on their finance pledges (subject to many of these same drivers, no doubt) plays an important role in the implementation gap for conditional pledges. 14/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

It also bears mentioning that we focused primarily on unconditional pledges, and therefore did not go deep on the role of international finance. 13/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

On the other hand, the impacts of some key IRA provisions aren't even included in modeled emissions reductions - not because they won't reduce emissions, but because it's not possible to model by how much - which would work to close any outcome gap 12/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

On the one hand, @jessejenkins.bsky.social finds that over 80% of IRA's GHG reduction potential will be lost if we can't speed up transmission expansion, leading to a potentially huge outcome gap 11/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

To illustrate the policy outcomes gap - where policies in practice deliver something different than what models project - take the US Inflation Reduction Act 10/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

In principle, countries with strong policies but weak outcomes (i.e. the lower right) may be experiencing a policy outcome gap (though I'll admit that some of these scores raise some questions for me) 9/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

The policy outcome gap can only be measured post hoc, but we used data from the Climate Change Performance Index ccpi.org to map perceived domestic policy strength against lagged policy outcomes 8/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

Clearly pledging behavior explains some of the policy adoption gap - if you make a less ambitious pledge - you'll have less of a gap - but not all of it 7/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

The policy adoption gap varies widely across countries, illustrated here using data from Climate Action Tracker. (+ means country's pledge is way more ambitious than their policies, - means vice versa). 6/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

and that these gaps are a function of strategic pledging behavior, policy design, innovation, domestic institutions (e.g. electoral rules, state capacity) and interest group politics and public support (e.g. policy feedback) 5/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

We argue that the implementation gap can be further decomposed into a "policy adoption gap" (the difference between countries' pledges and the policies they adopt) and a "policy outcome gap" (the difference between expected policy outcomes and actual policy outcomes) 4/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

The emissions gap is the sum of the "ambition gap" (gap between emissions for 1.5°C and emissions under national pledges, or targets) and the "implementation gap" - the gap between national targets and national policies 3/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

First, some definitions: The emissions gap is the difference between future global emissions in 1.5°C scenarios, and what future global emissions actually turn out to be. This gap is tracked every year by UNEP Emissions Gap Report colleagues unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-re…… 2/

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Taryn Fransen @tarynfransen.bsky.social · 29/07/2023

You've heard of the emissions gap, but what about the implementation gap? Our new comment in Nature Climate Change unpacks why countries don't deliver on their #climate pledges - a critical question for the Global Stocktake. rdcu.be/dhUk5 1/

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