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Tanguy Le Fur

@tanguylefur.bsky.social
197 followers 422 following 26 posts

associate prof. (mcf) at Université de Lille | growth theory, economic history & history of economic thought | pétanque, craft beer & jazz guitar sites.google.com/view/tanguylefur

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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
new paper with Pablo Hernandez-Lagos in which we use cool archaeological data to document heterogeneous trajectories of inequality across regions during the Neolithic Revolution, but then commit economists' cardinal sin of putting everything into equations drive.google.com/file/d/1Z0mm...
drive.google.com
HLLF_Trajectories of Inequality_v1.pdf
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
deeply honored to have been awarded this prize in memory of Carine. many thanks to @amse-aixmarseille.fr which still holds a special place in my heart and to @etiennewas.bsky.social for the many hours spent fighting (pun intended) on the paper!
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
vraiment les mêmes moves sur le dancefloor
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
this is awesome, congrats Çağlayan!!
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
because the end of the year is always busy, we extended the deadline for su mission: please send your papers by Monday, January 12. see you in Lille in April!
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Reposted by Tanguy Le Fur
Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 31/12/2025
Top CEPR Discussion Paper of 2025 - DP19955 Fighting for Resources: A Unified Growth Model of the Great Divergence Tanguy Le Fur & Etienne Wasmer ow.ly/4lzu50XLr9E #CEPR_EH #CEPR_MG #CEPR_PoE #EconSky #2025inReview
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
we are organizing the 5th edition of the LORDE workshop at @univlille.bsky.social this year. if you're into dynamic models applied to a variety of topics ranging from economic history to climate change, you should definitely apply! the event is always a lot of fun. lorde2026.sciencesconf.org
lorde2026.sciencesconf.org
LOng-Run Dynamics in Economics (LORDE) - Sciencesconf.org
The LORDE workshops, which began in 2022, carry on the tradition of the OLG Days established by Philippe Michel.We invite contributions across a diverse range of topics in macroeconomic dynamics and quantitative theory including but not limited to:
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
hysteresis? c'était du new keynesian death prog??
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
the workshop will take place in April 7-9, 2026, and the deadline to submit a (full) paper is December 31st. we provide accommodation for two nights and phd students may apply for funding for travel!
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
we are organizing the 5th edition of the LORDE workshop at @univlille.bsky.social this year. if you're into dynamic models applied to a variety of topics ranging from economic history to climate change, you should definitely apply! the event is always a lot of fun. lorde2026.sciencesconf.org
lorde2026.sciencesconf.org
LOng-Run Dynamics in Economics (LORDE) - Sciencesconf.org
The LORDE workshops, which began in 2022, carry on the tradition of the OLG Days established by Philippe Michel.We invite contributions across a diverse range of topics in macroeconomic dynamics and quantitative theory including but not limited to:
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
et pour les plus courageux·ses, l'article en question: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
The health-maximizing level of labor supply: a macroeconomic perspective on the American Health Puzzle - Journal of Population Economics
This paper provides a macroeconomic explanation for the United States suffering from a health disadvantage relative to other rich European countries despite spending much more on health care. We intro...
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
l'équipe de Dialogues Economiques (@amse-aixmarseille.fr) a écrit un super résumé de notre article sur les implications macroéconomiques du potentiel effet négatif du temps de travail sur la santé, pour celles et ceux qui voudraient s'épargner tout un tas de jolies équations!
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
(also, i should add that i agree with @pseudoerasmus.bsky.social that Bob Allen would have deserved to be there alongside Mokyr)
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
oh, and @goulven.bsky.social recently put together a great special issue on the history of endogenous growth theories to which i was lucky enough to contribute: shs.cairn.info/revue-cahier...
shs.cairn.info
Cahiers d'économie politique 2025/2 (n° 87)
Contributions à une histoire des théories de la croissance endogène
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
anyway, you should read what Béatrice has to say on the Nobel as she is always spot on: beatricecherrier.wordpress.com/2025/10/13/w...
beatricecherrier.wordpress.com
What does a Nobel Prize on ‘innovation-driven economic growth’ actually reward?
A historian’s perspective on how to deal with the Nobel frenzy I generally try to stay away from the Economics Nobel frenzy, if only because the hyper-personalization of scientific achievemen…
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
i am not yet sure what to make of all this, but i believe there is something to be written about the dichotomy between growth theory and economic history, two fields that feel so close yet far apart but that the Nobel committee nonetheless decided to celebrate together yesterday.
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
today, growth theory has fallen out of fashion and the type of economic history that gets published in top general interest journals has adopted the many causal inference tools of applied microeconometrics which differ from the eclectic set of empirical methods Mokyr used throughout his career.
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
growth theory and economic history have followed different trajectories since the 50s and while there have been many attempts at establishing a dialogue between the two fields, very different methodological standpoints (in particular the use of theoretical models) have stood in the way.
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
and here we go again in 2007 with a workshop at the EUI in Florence (organized in part by @kevinhorourke.bsky.social) in which Steve Broadberry and Crafts were invited to engage with Oded Galor and assess unified growth theory.
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
in 1996, it is Paul Romer and Martin Weitzman that were sided against economic historian Nicholas Crafts at the annual meeting of the Association to assess the contributions of new growth theory in a session with a telling title.
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
but this was not a one-time feud: the tensions were still unresolved when economic historians and growth theorists met at the 1984 meeting of the AEA, for a redux of the Solow-Rostow debate in which Arrow also took part (the proceedings of the session were edited by Parker and Kindleberger).
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
neither of them minced their words: Solow criticized Rostow for the lack of an "orderly relation between economic theory and economic history," and Rostow noted tensions between a "world of problems of simplicity" and a "world of organized complexity." (see doi.org/10.1215/0018...)
doi.org
In the Kingdom of Solovia: The Rise of Growth Economics at Mit, 1956-70
From its flow tide, fueled by the Cold War, to its ebbing with the anti-growth movement and the economic crises of the early 1970s, the “growthmen” of MIT stood at the center of the dominant field in ...
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
take the debate that occurred betwen Solow (a growth theorist) and Rostow (an economic historian) at a conference organized by the International Economic Association in 1960 in Konstanz to assess the latter's ‘economics of the take-off’ that had just came out:
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
despite obvious similarities in their object of study (why are some countries rich and others poor?), the relationship between the two fields has indeed been rather conflictual in the second half of the 20th century.
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
as someone who engages in both growth theory and economic history i'm happy to see both fields celebrated by this year's Nobel, but because i also dabble in history of economic thought i think it should be noted that the decision to pool them together may not be as natural as it seems.
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undercoverhist.bsky.social @undercoverhist.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
What does a Nobel Prize on ‘innovation-driven economic growth’ actually reward? A historian’s perspective on how to deal with the Nobel frenzy beatricecherrier.wordpress.com/2025/10/13/w...
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
an open access link for those who want to check it out: rdcu.be/eAXDr
rdcu.be
Fighting for resources: a unified growth model of the Great Divergence
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
our paper with @etiennewas.bsky.social is out in the Journal of Economic Growth, here's our modest contribution to the long-standing debate on the role of the appropriation of resources—and conflict more generally—in global economic history. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Fighting for resources: a unified growth model of the Great Divergence - Journal of Economic Growth
This paper interprets the Great Divergence as the cumulative influence of small asymmetries in technology or various initial conditions, amplified through conflict over resources. It introduces a trac...
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Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
new paper in which Etienne and I show that introducing conflict in a unified growth model can generate a Great Divergence without substantial differences in initial conditions, as the appropriation of resources amplifies even the slightest asymmetry between countries. cepr.org/publications...
cepr.org
DP19955 Fighting for Resources: A Unified Growth Model of the Great Divergence
This paper interprets the Great Divergence as the cumulative influence of small asymmetries in technology or various initial conditions, amplified through conflict over resources. It introduces a tractable framework that integrates demography, technological progress, and conflict into a unified growth model. The amplification effect of resource appropriation is characterized by conflict multipliers in both the short- and long-run. Conflict is a source of substantial divergence, as appropriation of resources allows some polities (cities, countries) to develop faster at the expense of others. Reconvergence is, however, possible through population growth, due to strategic com- plementarities in fertility decisions and staggered demographic transitions. Rich and non-linear dynamics display key features of comparative economic development between the West and the Global South, but also shed light on a variety of historical case studies that share such dynamics of divergence and reconvergence as well as more dramatic episodes of population extinction in a dominated country. Our framework can easily be extended to study the role of resource exhaustion or the fundamental trade-off between trade and conflict.
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