iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

My publisher is a bad ass. She is not happy with the progress of my next book, WILD FIRE [only a working title]. So I have committed to focusing exclusively on this manuscript for a coupla weeks, which will require swearing off blogging for a while.

I will miss it of course, but return to it with renewed vigor on my return.

So, let me tell you a little bit about the next book. Unlike the first three, all set in the greater Washington, D.C. area, my next one will be set in Washington State, where my wife and I have lived for over thirty years.

No more dragon heads on the cover. Still no fantasy of any type, except perhaps a wee bit of magic by a young girl.

MacGregor Adam McLachlan, Mac to those who know him well, is a burly, tattooed firefighter. Marlee Evelyn Harrington, Mar for short, is a middle school teacher with a six-year-old daughter. When the firefighter and schoolmarm first meet, literal sparks fly, so the experienced reader knows how this will go.

But wait, is this book still about climate? You betcha. Aren't wildfires and smoke part of the climate story? Of course they are. As are heat waves and floods and extinctions. But also deadly treachery, And romance. Didn't I already mention romance? As with the other books, anyone can go to my website and read the first chapter of all four works. How great is that?

Check out all this and more on my website: https://swlawrence.com/

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

AAAS: "Satellite reveals a world of ‘weird rivers’ shaped by humans, " by Paul Voosen. For nearly 4 yrs in orbit, a radar satellite launched by NASA + CNES has been simultaneously measuring the water levels + breadth of rivers around the world.

"They are dammed, braided, frozen, or drained—with behaviors hydrologic models struggle to capture, says Colin Gleason, a hydrologist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst." Results were published last month in Geophysical Research Letters, which found that the vast majority of rivers are not simple, idealized channels.

"Before SWOT’s launch in late 2022, scientists had no way to routinely monitor the planet’s rivers." Gauges measure depth in real time at particular locations, but they are sparse, especially in less developed countries. "Satellites could observe a river’s width or water level, but not both at the same time." To predict whether a river will dry up in a hot summer or flood after a heavy rain, the models make simple assumptions about the shape of its channel + how much water reaches it.

"To fill the gaps, researchers relied on models, increasingly informed by AI trained on these spotty data." The $1.2 B SWOT revisits most spots on Earth at 11-day intervals, mapping rivers + lakes as small as 30 meters wide. It broadcasts radar pulses from its belly, + 2 antennas separated by 10 meters catch the reflections, viewing the same patch of water from slightly different angles. Think of an analogy to our binocular vision.

"In the new study, Gleason + his colleagues examined some 68,000 rivers, comparing SWOT data with existing hydrologic models." They found the models struggle to capture the behavior of many rivers, especially in China, the Arctic, + in arid regions. "In some cases, models predicted rising river waters when SWOT in fact saw them falling." They also study "flow waves," long-lived surges that propagate downstream + cause flash floods. In the opposite direction, they document how far tidal water reaches upstream, astonishing in its reach into the Amazon basin.

I will leave it to your imagination how this might change our understanding of the weirding climate.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Grist: "Federal court rules there is no constitutional right to safe drinking water," by Adam Mahoney. “Nearly all of the residents of Jackson have watched brackish, dirty, impure, + undrinkable water trickle from their taps...at times, some have had no water at all,” residents reported in 2022.

“Jackson residents did everything this country tells poor people to do...they organized, they testified, they boiled their water, they filed suit, they trusted the courts...at every step the answer has been no,” said Danyelle Holmes, a senior national organizer with Mississippi’s Poor People’s Campaign.

"A federal appeals court has used a decades-long water crisis in one of the Blackest cities in America to rule that the U.S. Constitution does not guarantee Americans the right to clean + safe drinking water." Previously, the Environmental Protection Agency...determined that the city could not receive support through the Civil Rights Act of 1965.

"What is happening in Jackson matters because federal data show Black communities are more likely than white communities to be served by water systems with health-based Safe Drinking Water Act violations." Research has also found that systems in communities with larger Black populations take much longer to be fixed or improved.

"The lawsuit that spurred the federal appeals court ruling was first brought by Jackson residents who alleged that city officials knowingly allowed lead-contaminated [+ other impurities] water to reach their homes + then misled the public about whether it was safe to drink." The suit also alleged that state authorities violated civil rights law by repeatedly sending federal money earmarked for drinking water safety to white communities rather than Jackson.

"In the September 4 ruling, the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed a lower court’s dismissal of the case." Judge Kurt Engelhardt wrote that while access to safe water is “important,” it is not a right “deeply rooted in our Nation’s history and tradition,” the standard the court used to decide whether it is protected by the Constitution.

Unadulterated racism, straight up.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

CanadianBroadcastingCorporation: "Wildfires, permafrost thaw in Canada causing even more climate change, new study shows," by Inayat Singh.

"Now, a new study is detailing how the fires, permafrost thaw + other changes are adding even more GHG into the atmosphere...speeding up climate change at a scale not currently reflected in global estimates." These "feedback loops," where CC triggers more carbon emissions that in turn feed into even more CC, could add 20 to 30% more warming above current estimates for this century, according to a new study by researchers at U.S. institutions, including Stanford + non-profits Environmental Defense Fund + Spark Climate Solutions.

"Our remaining [allowable] carbon budget is most likely ... much smaller than what we think it is," said Ben Poulter, program director with Spark Climate Solutions + co-author of the paper," published recently in Environmental Research Letters, one of the most comprehensive reviews to date of these warming-induced emissions.

"Current climate models mostly track emissions from [human] sources—burning of fossil fuels...food production + cattle rearing, decomposing waste + other human activities that release GHG." As a northern country, Canada is already warming faster than the world as a whole. This September, the federal government released its landmark Canada’s Changing Climate assessment, which said the country could be heading to a whopping 5ºC of warming in this century, bringing with it profound changes to people, ecosystems + landscapes.

"During Canada's worst wildfire season on record in 2023, the flames released one billion tonnes [Gt] of carbon." If they were a country, the wildfires would have been 8th highest emitter in the world. As seen in the photo, abrupt thawing, also triggered by warming as well as extreme weather like wildfires + rain, causes the land to cave or slump suddenly. Another concern is CH4 emissions from wetlands because a major spike in growth of CH4 in atmosphere starting around 2020...is not fully explained by direct human activities.

Quoting that old Pogo comic strip, "We have met the enemy + he is us."

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

AAAS: "North Korean nuclear test sets off years of earthquakes," by Richard Stone. "Seismic activity around the Punggye-ri test site has increased since a large nuclear explosion in 2017."

Years later, the crust around the Punggye-ri test site is still restless, according to a study published recently in Science. "Rather than fading away, earthquake [EQ] activity increased over the following years." Even in 2025, small EQ were occurring along 2 suspected faults near Mount Mantap, some as far as 20 to 30 km from the test site.

Finding adds a striking example to a growing catalog of human-induced EQ. Injecting wastewater from oil + gas operations, mining, filling reservoirs, geothermal energy projects, + subsurface nuclear detonations have all been shown capable of triggering earthquakes, though typically not so persistent.

North Korea conducted six underground nuclear tests at Punggye-ri from 2006 to ’17. The final explosion, estimated to be equivalent to 100 to 250 kilotons of TNT, registered as a magnitude 6.3 seismic event by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). About 8 minutes later, a magnitude 4.1 event was interpreted as the collapse of its underground blast cavity. Apart from an isolated small earthquake soon afterward, there were no immediate aftershocks.

Sustained activity in area began about 3 wks later. Researchers searched through seismic recordings collected in China + South Korea between 2008 + ’25, using the wave forms of known earthquakes as templates to find much fainter events buried in background noise. They identified 1399 earthquakes near the Punggye-ri site + determined precise locations for 955. Most were tiny earthquakes below magnitude 2.

But instead of fading after 2017, their frequency increased through 2025, as did the total "seismic moment" released by the sequence—the combined size of all the earthquakes.

I have no data—if any exist—on radiation releases following tests, but cloud of dust in photo is impressive, + we do know US testing in Nevada clearly released radionuclides ultimately affecting downwinders. One more good reason not to resume testing as current administration has clearly signaled it wants to do.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

AAAS: "Future Forests," by Katie Langin. "We can’t just sit on our haunches and wait for nature to take care of itself." says Greg O'Neil, working for British Columbia Ministry of Forests.

“We’re living in a completely different climate than when a lot of those trees originally established,” says Marin Chambers, a forest ecologist + self-described tree hugger, talking about a burned over area.

Colorado was hit by the warmest winter on record this past year, as well as an alarmingly low snowpack. “So, the big question is how those forests are going to recover.” In the western US, researchers have documented little natural regeneration within many severely burned forests, so they are beginning to more forcibly promote 'assisted migration.'

The idea is that as the climate warms, forest managers should plant seedlings sourced from populations already adapted to warmer conditions. The risks are that unintended consequences might arise as trees are shifted around the landscape + exposed to new soils, precipitation patterns, + pests.

In Colorado, after the ash settled on Colorado’s devastating 2020 fire season, nonetheless they planted some 11,000 seedlings from seven conifer species at 98 burned sites, ranging from dry foothills in Colorado’s Front Range to subalpine forests a few hundred meters below timberline. "But it will be years before the scientists know which seedlings survived best during their vulnerable first few years."

The species put to the test live in a variety of climate zones, including Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) + subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), high-elevation specialists. Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) grows at middle elevations. Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), + pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) tend to be found lower down. Ironically, in a high-severity burn area on south-facing slopes snow melts 71% faster relative to nearby unburned areas, according to a 2024 study in Water Resources Research that analyzed data from snow cameras, giving them an earlier start.

'If only we had more time,' which I suspect is a phrase we will hear a lot in coming years.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

ArsTechnica: '“Offensively cheap”: Solar power is looking up,' by Rachel Millard. "Chinese-made panels on rooftops across the world are changing the facts of life for big utilities."

$In north-central Pakistan, Bestway Cement is transforming plots of dry earth and olive + peach groves into a forest of solar panels. There are 26 megawatts [MW] of photovoltaic cells currently in place, but they will add another 6.34 MW by year's end. “Only way we can compete,” says Abdul Waheed, which produces over 3 M tonnes of cement per year. Bestway + its competitors are among millions of businesses + households around the world that have installed solar panels on roofs, in yards, gardens + other land, helped by a flood of cheap components from China. By end-2025, such capacity totaled ~ 1.2 terawatts [TW = 1,000 GW = 1 million MW = 1 billion kW] worldwide, according to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy. "While the nature of solar power, dependent on sunlight, means it only produces a fraction of its instantaneous potential, that still equates to roughly 3 times the size of the global nuclear power fleet." The solar revolution made possible by cheap Chinese PV panels—and the rise of small-scale, individual power generation—is transforming energy in the developing + industrialized world alike. Millions of people in poorer countries now have more reliable access to electricity, often by their own endeavors rather than massive installed infrastructure. Across the globe, consumers are using cleaner energy + bringing down their bills at a time when the cost of living is a constant concern, not least because of the Iran + Ukraine wars. The UK + nine US states have now approved the sale of the low-cost “plug and play” solar panels already widely available in other parts of Europe. In the year 2000, solar panels cost $5-$6 per watt of generation capacity. Today, they sell for around 12 cents per watt, a level described as “offensively cheap” by Dave Jones, co-founder of think-tank Ember. This campaign targets fossil fuels + nuclear. And affordable, fast, scalable solar is winning.$

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

AAAS: "Three wild dogs have traveled farther than any [other] African mammal," by Rhe Jacobs. Record-breaking “odyssey” suggests populations of these highly endangered carnivores are more connected than thought.

African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus)—sometimes referred to as “painted dogs” for their splotchy coats—are leaner + longer legged than their distant, domesticated cousins.

"Also highly social, living in tightly knit family groups in which communally raised pups are always the first to eat." In these packs, breeding is typically reserved for a single dominant dog of each sex. "Subordinate members may stick around to help raise their relatives’ offspring, all while waiting for a chance to become the next alpha." Or they may strike off on their own in search of more immediate breeding opportunities.

Predicting which dogs will stay + which will go “is as much of an art as a science,” says Ecology study co-author Matthew Becker, who serves as CEO + manager of the Zambia Carnivore Programme. Becker + his colleagues outfitted several soon-to-depart 3 y/o dogs with radio tracking collars. Thanks to their long legs, “otherworldly” gait + high endurance, African wild dogs “are built to move,” says Scott Creel, a conservation biologist at Montana State University + the new study’s lead author.

"Even though wild dogs are carnivores, they often find themselves at the mercy of other predators." Lions are a major threat for both adults + pups; hyenas are known to steal their hard-earned kills. "Swimming across rivers, meanwhile, carries a high risk of being devoured by crocodiles."

Three males traveled together a total of 4126 kilometers—the longest dispersal path recorded for any African mammal. "Wildebeest, by contrast, move up to 1800 kilometers during their epic annual migration between Kenya + Tanzania."

I've run marathons, but this is way beyond a human ultramarathon. Four legs dominate. Except for birds, obviously.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Grist: "More than 70% of new solar is being built in states that voted for Trump," by Austin Corona.

Tim Pawlenty, CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association + a former Republican governor of Minnesota, says, "Red states, as a general proposition, have sort of a pro-build mentality—they want to build things."

Recent years, Republican opposition to solar has mounted, with Trump making it more difficult to build solar on federal land + Congress scaling back federal tax credits for the industry. "But a new report from the Solar Energy Industries Association...found that states that voted for Trump in the last presidential election counted for 8 of the top 10 solar-building states in the country in the first half of the year."

US added more than 11 gigawatts [GW] of solar power in the second quarter of 2026, an increase of 45% compared to the same period in 2025. "Texas + Florida, the 2 largest Trump-supporting states by population, were ranked first + third, respectively." Those Sun Belt states have been consistent leaders in solar construction, as have Indiana, Ohio, + Arizona, which have also remained in the top 10 solar-building states since 2024. "Those red states are fostering solar development through their general pro-business attitude + booming electricity-hungry industries, even if don’t support solar for [expressly] climate-related reasons."

Republican-leaning states have > available land + easier permitting processes for energy projects. "Attractive business environment has also drawn electricity-consuming industries, like manufacturing + data centers...producing demand for quickly constructed, [affordable] energy sources like solar."

"Michigan, politically mixed state where majority chose Trump in 2024, reached the top 10 first time this year." State climbed steadily from 23rd place in 2024 to fourth in first half of 2026. Though the state voted for Trump in 2024, Michigan has a Democratic governor + Democrat-led state Senate.

Though I was born in Minnesota, I will just say 'Go Michigan" for solar + hope my home state starts scoring big as well.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Oil$: "UAE Rethinks 5-Gigawatt AI Campus After Iran Targets US Assets in Gulf," by Charles Kennedy.

"The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is considering significant changes to its plans to build a massive 5-GW AI data center in Abu Dhabi in partnership with U.S. tech giants, after Iran started targeting American air bases + U.S.-linked critical infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, multiple sources have told Reuters."

UAE, which aims to become not only a regional but also a global leader in AI development + computing, last year planned to build the 5-GW UAE-US AI [note combination] Campus in Abu Dhabi. "Sprawling campus was planned to include 5 GW of capacity for AI data centers in Abu Dhabi, providing a regional platform from which U.S. hyperscalers would be able to offer latency-friendly services to nearly half the global population living within 3,200 km (2,000 miles) of the UAE."

However, the Iran war + the frequent Iranian missile + drone launches targeting U.S. assets in America’s allies in the Gulf have now prompted the UAE’s authorities to consider spreading the campus into a network of data centers across the UAE, coupled with measures to better protect critical facilities from missile + drone attacks, according to Reuters’ anonymous sources, including a U.S. official, a Western diplomat, + industry executives.

"Earlier this year, Iranian drones damaged 3 Amazon Web Services (AWS) facilities in the region, with direct hits on 2 UAE facilities + 1 hit on a facility in Bahrain."

Apparently explosive kinetic attacks are not only treacherous for people + infrastructure, but even corporate strategy may be a casualty of warfare. Already the US has had to close most of its naval + army bases in the Middle East due to its ill-advised attack on Iran.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

CanaryMedia: "Heat pumps may soon outsell air conditioners in US," by Dan McCarthy. Over the last 4 yrs heat pumps have outsold gas furnaces in the US—now the superefficient appliances are coming for conventional air conditioners, too.

"A decade ago, two conventional air-conditioning systems were sold for every one heat pump." Now, heat pumps are on the verge of outselling standard ACs. In 2025, sales of the appliances were basically tied—and heat pumps even beat air conditioners in September, a first.

Through April of this year, the already-slim gap has narrowed further. Compared with same period last year, heat pump sales are up by about 1%, while AC sales are down by nearly 8%, according to data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute [AHRI], a trade group.

Heat pumps are essentially reversible ACs: The same unit can either heat or cool a space. Long popular in more moderate climates, like the southern US, but in recent years their cold-weather performance has improved, + they’ve caught on in more frigid regions, too. Heating is one of the largest sources of carbon emissions in the country, + heat pumps, which are 2 to 4 times more efficient than fossil-fueled systems, offer a much cleaner way to keep a space warm. The fact that they also cool homes is a climate benefit, as extreme heat makes air-conditioning a necessity rather than a luxury.

"Many states, municipalities, + utilities have incentivized the adoption of the energy-efficient, zero-emissions technology." Sometimes these incentives come in the form of direct rebates. "Other times they manifest in wonkier places, like pro-electric building codes or preferential electricity rates for homes with heat pumps." Some states, like cold + snowy Maine, have even set—and exceeded—explicit adoption targets. The federal government also subsidized heat pumps for several yrs, but as feared, in 2025 Trump + congressional Republicans repealed that support.

Someone should tell them that from 100,000 to 200,000 Americans die from FF-associated air pollution annually. And that tax subsidies for oil, gas + coal development reduced federal revenue by $12.9 billion from 2022 to 2026.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Oil$: "Copper Hits Record Highs While Smelters Lose Money on Every Ton," by Michael Kern. "Copper hit an all-time high of $14,779 a ton on the London Metal Exchange [LME] this week even as global smelting margins collapsed to zero."

The 2026 benchmark treatment + refining charge fell to $0 a ton, the lowest on record, with spot rates turning negative as smelters compete for scarce concentrate.

"China's smelting dominance, Indonesia's new capacity + looming US tariffs are reshaping who controls value across the global copper supply chain." Copper is trading at record prices, yet people who turn raw ore into usable metal can't make money doing it. "That's the copper market right now, and it says more about who actually controls the world's most important industrial metal than any single price headline does."

"COMEX copper in the US is trading near $6.75 a pound, pulled higher by the same forces driving London." None of that is showing up in smelter profits. The 2026 benchmark treatment + refining charge, the fee miners pay smelters to turn concentrate into finished metal, hit zero, down from $21.25 in 2025 + $80 in 2024. Spot rates went further, dropping to roughly negative $127 a ton by midyear, meaning smelters are effectively paying miners for the right to process their own ore.

China smelts roughly half the world's copper + has driven more than 90% of global smelting capacity growth since 2005, tightening its grip on the processing side of the business even as it squeezes its own margins. Beijing built that capacity assuming mine supply would keep pace—which failed to materialize—thus that gap is now the defining fact of the copper market.

Chile posted its weakest second-quarter output in at least 19 years. Antofagasta's first-half production fell 9.5%. Congo's Kamoa-Kakula + Indonesia's Freeport operations both saw disruptions, + Panama's Cobre Panama mine remains shut amid an ongoing legal fight with the government.

More capacity chasing the same shrinking pool of concentrate means negative treatment charges look less like a blip, more like the new normal. "Don't worry, be happy,' just doesn't cut it any more.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

ChinaSpecialReport: "Waning fossil fuels and green exports make China important for all of us," by Bob Haar. Notoriously, China has been the engine of fossil fuel [FF] demand growth for a full quarter-century.

Notoriously, China has been the engine of fossil fuel [FF] demand growth for a full quarter-century. Between 2000 + 2025, it accounted for ~ half of increase in world-wide oil demand + > 90% of growth in coal demand.

However, FF are now starting to wane as renewables drive more generation, in a new phase for the country’s energy transition. Coal generation has stopped growing in 17 of 26 provinces. The clean energy system is expanding while parts of the FF system are starting to shrink. Battery storage is increasingly central in balancing all that clean energy, allowing utilization to double over the past 2 years.

This shift away from FF is diffusing from power plants + vehicles to industrial sectors. In fact, 8 of their industrial sectors are now powered primarily by electricity, no longer dominated by FF.

Second quarter this year—with 75% of Chinese buses already electric & half the taxis, sales of EVs reaching 65%, electric trucks 30%, + vans 50%—1.5 million barrels per day [Mbpd] were displaced. That’s 1.5% of global demand, roughly France’s share.

Year earlier, the displacement from transport was 750K barrels daily, so the plunge in transportation oil doubled in a single year. Sinopac, China’s biggest oil company, saw demand down 9% Jan-June 2026.

Traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles saw steep drops month after month, leading to the point where 9 out of the top 10 best-selling cars in China now are plug-in hybrids [PHEV] or battery-electric vehicles [BEV]. Electric heavy trucks, jumping by roughly 90% year-on-year through the first half of 2026, became the fastest-growing source of oil displacement.

China’s green exports are helping many countries access cheap clean energy, which reached a record high of $20 B for August. To forestall repetitious comments, I will again assert that the country is an autocratic hypersurveillance state which mistreats minorities, especially Uyghurs + Tibetans.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

FinTimes: "The ‘water batteries’ that could be a crucial complement to renewables." "Water wheels were first used in ancient Greece, the foundations of modern hydraulic engineering were laid in the 1700s, while electricity was first generated by pumped hydropower stations ~ 120 yrs ago."

Now there is growing interest in pumped hydro because of the proliferation of renewables.

During generation of surplus electricity, the extra.quantum is used to pump water from a physically low point to a higher elevation, thus converting the electricity into gravitational potential energy. Historically, pumped storage stations require specific terrain, with the creation or presence of large bodies of water with significant differences in altitude.

"Companies are also experimenting with using mineral-rich fluids other than water." RheEnergise, a London-based pumped energy storage company, is testing a novel system. "Our fluid is two and a half times the density of water . . . it runs freely like a creamy milk,” says RheEnergise’s chief executive Stephen Crosher. The use of the higher-density fluid allows the company to build pumped hydro stations on hills instead of mountains, expanding the number of sites where stations can be built, plus the footprint is smaller.

The challenges include high upfront capital costs, geographic constraints—including having space for reservoirs at different heights + in locations close enough to the electricity grid, plus managing the environmental + social impacts of construction. “AI, electric vehicles, air conditioning—they are all putting enormous strain on the grid + will require 24/7 reliability,” says Eddie Rich, chief executive of the International Hydropower Association. “Overnight or over seasons where you need long-duration energy storage, pumped storage provides that.”

Globally, pumped hydro already provides 90% of energy storage, as opposed to lithium or other electrochemical batteries, which get most of the press. Wonderful to see feasible hydrologic innovations not requiring such rare geographies.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

NOAA: "Testing the Waters: A Day at the Nation’s Largest Oil Spill Simulation Tank." "Recently, NOAA’s Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) headed to a highly specialized facility to simulate ocean conditions + tackle one of the most complex questions in oil spill response."

Question is when + how should chemical dispersants be used? Dispersants are an alternative treatment technology, approved for use under special circumstances to enhance natural dispersion by breaking oil slicks into smaller droplets. "These smaller droplets are dispersed into the water column, removing some of the oil from the surface where the greatest harm may occur + lessening the amount of oil that reaches sensitive habitats such as coastal wetlands. Dispersed oil is more rapidly biodegraded by “oil-eating” microbes found throughout the ocean, which have adapted over time to use most of the chemicals in oil as “food.”

Deciding to apply chemical dispersants requires a careful, deliberate “tradeoff analysis” aimed at preventing the greatest overall harm. "The choice weighs the severe, concentrated impacts on surface-dwelling animals like seabirds + marine mammals, + the high risk of oil washing into sensitive nearshore or onshore habitats against dispersing the oil into the water column."

"To ensure decision-makers are armed with the best possible science, OR&R recently supported a hands-on workshop, hosted by the American Petroleum Institute [API], alongside government, industry, + academic experts at Ohmsett, the National Oil Spill Response Research and Renewable Energy Test Facility in Leonardo, New Jersey." Managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Ohmsett features a massive, 2.6-million-gallon outdoor saltwater wave tank that simulates real-world ocean conditions.

I am immediately suspicious about hosting by the API, main mouthpiece of the oil industry, but I would love to drop in a surf board + check out the ride. Without the oil of course.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

AAAS: "To prevent forest fires, Trump wants to end a road-building ban. Scientists are skeptical," by Warren Cornwall.

Administration claims decades-old “roadless rule” prevents efforts to improve forest health.

"It’s infuriating that the potential for reducing fire risk is even used as a justification for putting more roads into our national forests," says Jennifer Balch, a UC Boulder fire scientist. Balch’s work has shown that humans start 84% of all wildfires nationwide, + that roads are a major way people bring in matches, fireworks, + other spark-producing tools.

'The roadless area conservation rule banned road construction on more than 175,000 sq. km of roadless areas, nearly 1/4 of all national forest land. "Since then, it has been embroiled in a near-constant legal + political tug-of-war."

"In 2020, the first Trump administration rescinded the rule in Alaska’s Tongass National Forest, opening it to loggers." In 2021, Biden administration reversed that change. In 2026, the second Trump administration is going further + proposing to eliminate the rule nationwide. Public comments on the proposed change will be accepted through 21 September on a draft environmental impact statement, which spells out the science underpinning the proposed repeal.

USFS notes that > 29,000 sq. km of land lie within forests designated as high priority “firesheds”—places posing elevated wildfire risk to infrastructure + communities. In 2020, USFS ecologist Sean Healey published a paper in Environmental Research Letters reporting that from 1985 to 2016, national forest acreage burned at approximately same rate regardless of whether it was shielded from road construction.

"Alexandra Syphard, a wildfire scientist, began circulating a letter last month critiquing USFS’s environmental impact analysis." Some 30 prominent wildfire scientists added names to letter within days.

Scientists have also voiced concerns about detrimental ecosystem impacts of roads, as conduits for invasive plants like grasses—raising fire risks—construction can unleash more sediment pollution into nearby creeks + rivers.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

CanaryMedia: "Virginia to cut rooftop solar costs with nation-first bulk-buy program," by Elizabeth Ouzts.

"Last month, Virginia became the first state...to launch a bulk-purchasing campaign for rooftop solar—a move that promises to bring down the cost of installing panels for households across Old Dominion." Idea behind the program, called Switch Together, is simple: Solar panels come cheaper by the dozen, like that old Disney movie. "Trusted [+ vetted] solar installers can pool demand to purchase equipment in bulk + pass the discounts on to participants." Solar United Neighbors [SUN], the nonprofit running the initiative, is expanding statewide in Virginia at the urging of the office of Gov. Abigail Spanberger, a Democratl.

"If more people go solar, that’s less strain on the grid, and there’s less need to build costly infrastructure that the entire rate base would actually pay for," said Brandon Praileau, SUN’s Virginia program director, who joined the group in 2023 after rooftop solar helped his church in Norfolk cut utility bills by a quarter. "The state is not providing any funding for Switch Together, though its partnership promises to amplify the reach of the bulk-purchasing effort, which is focused on solar but also offers residents access to cheaper home batteries, EV chargers, and, in some locations, heat pumps."

By the time this year's bulk-purchasing drive is over, Praileau expects those figures will swell to 5,000 requests for info and about 500 signed contracts. "We’re talking about a utility-scale amount of solar with those numbers...almost 4 megawatts [MW].” The rooftop panels are expected to cut $2,200 off the average annual utility bill.

Exactly how much households save on installation varies across the state, but it ranges from 20% to 30% off—vital discounts after Trump + Republicans in Congress killed the 30% federal tax credit for households investing in renewable energy.

"Rooftop solar both slashes power costs for homes that install it and can drive down expenses for utility customers at large." We should help the Sun shine in.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Grist: "The fossil fuel industry is spending record amounts to keep California from regulating it," by Joseph Winters.

First 6 months of this year the fossil fuel industries poured $17 M into fighting climate + worker-safety legislation. "Much of spending was directed against legislation proposing new costs + liabilities for the FF industry, like a state bill that would make companies pay for rebuilding following climate-intensified natural disasters."

"Top spenders in the o + g lobbying category included Western States Petroleum Association, which spent $4.3 M over first half of the yar; Chevron, spending amounted to $3.7 M; + Phillips 66, an oil refiner that spent just over half a million dollars." Much of the money went to consultants and alleged “front groups” that present themselves as grassroots operations but are funded by the fossil fuel industry, like Californians for Energy Independence.

"One big target of the sector’s lobbying was California’s cap-and-invest program, which requires companies to pay for a finite—and declining—number of emissions permits each year...program covers roughly 80% of California’s economy + is considered critical to achieving the state’s climate targets, including carbon neutrality by 2045."

The sector also fought a bill, currently awaiting passage by the state Senate, to extend California’s Displaced Oil and Gas Workers Fund. "Established under a 2022 law, the $30 million fund distributes grants to help oil + gas industry workers transition to new careers."

Other pending bills that oil companies lobbied against propose creating a task force on safe staffing guidelines for oil refineries; preventing fossil fuel companies from abandoning methane-leaking oil wells; and adding new safety + public comment requirements for offshore oil pipelines.

As for those dastardly methane-leaking oil wells? There are > 100,000 of these wells in this state alone. Companies are often able to evade responsibility for plugging them.

Money equals power, even in what is often thought of as a blue state. So, let's color it blue with oil dripping down the sides.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

AAAS: "Ancient sheep virus found hiding in medieval parchment," by Andrew Curry. "In ancient Rome, shepherds feared the appearance of bumpy pustules on their sheep—a telltale sign of deadly sheeppox."

In a study in Science Advances, researchers pin the virus’ emergence to about 5000 years ago, roughly the same time people started to intensively shear sheep for wool. "The peek into the pathogen’s past came from an unusual source: dozens of medieval books + legal documents written on parchment, which is made from specially treated animal skins."

"Turns out parchment is an extremely good preserver of this type of biological data," says University of Leicester historian Joanna Story. "As part of a larger look at the origins of medieval manuscripts, researchers rubbed pages of the books with erasers, then extracted DNA from the rubbings."

Historically, cow, goat, + sheep skins were soaked for days in pits filled with lime, a caustic chemical, + then painstakingly scraped + stretched by hand. "It’s a pretty disgusting process," says University College Dublin geneticist Kevin Daly.

"Manuscripts were often written on + handled, giving DNA trapped in the parchment ample time to degrade or become contaminated." Yet even after centuries on the shelves of monasteries + archives, the manuscripts contained enough intact DNA to identify the species skinned...as well as viruses + other pathogens that afflicted the animals, including dozens of extinct sheeppox strains.

The average medieval manuscript was a huge investment, requiring anywhere from a few dozen animals to hundreds of skins for the largest Bibles. “When you pick up a book, you’re picking up a flock of sheep or herd of cattle.”

Though not as well-known as its distant cousin, smallpox, farmers in Europe + Africa still consider sheeppox a major threat. 'An outbreak can kill between 50% + 80% of a flock’s young.' Comparing various strains taken from medieval manuscripts from between 700 C.E. + 1450 C.E., the team estimated the samples all had a common ancestor that evolved into a sheep-specific disease ~ 5000 yrs ago.

So, allow me 2 deductions. DNA is a very tough molecule. And sheep are not just detectives.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Guardian: "China’s falling emissions amid Iran war spark hope of decarbonisation watershed," by Jonathan Watts.

"China’sCO2 emissions fell by 1% after outbreak of US-Israeli war on Iran, due to a sharp reduction in oil consumption + steady rise in EVs + public transport." Report reinforces hopes that the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter may be nearing a turning point in decarbonising its economy.

"China was able to increase overall transportation...despite cutting oil imports by 32%, according to Q2 energy data reported by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics + analysed for Carbon Brief by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air." The reduction—equivalent to about a million barrels a day—from world’s biggest petro-customer helped to stabilise global oil prices, which nevertheless surged by about 60% in weeks + months after first US airstrikes in late February "

About 2/3 of the fall in imports came from running down, rather than building up, strategic oil stockpiles." Remaining 1/3 was largely covered by a reduction in demand. "The country’s use of oil fell by 9% overall + for transport by 16%." While large numbers of petrol + diesel vehicles stayed off the roads, there was a surge in journeys by electric cars, buses, trains + trucks.

“In a qualitative sense, there’s no question that the transport sector decarbonisation has been accelerated," said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. "It’s a validation of the energy security strategy China has in place...clear that electrification is the winning strategy to insure against these kinds of shocks."

Impressively, Myllyvirta noted this was the first time China’s overall emissions had fallen due to a reduction in oil use rather than in coal consumption.

In fact, coal generation rose during the quarter due to shifting economic incentives + delays in adapting the country’s grid, which caused considerable curtailment or wasting of wind + solar power.

Delay in adapting power gird to the new realities—does that sound like any great power you recognize?

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Grist: "How Florida quietly removed climate change content from textbooks," by Jessica Meszaros, WUSF & Katie Worth.

"Had Florida’s high school marine biology students read the original draft of their textbook, they would have learned about research that found climate change is killing at least 150,000 people per year, and another 1ºC of warming would double that." Instead, they learned that “human health will also be affected by the increase in CO2 and another 1ºC will further increase the impact.” Also, an environmental science textbook by publisher Cengage removed the word “polluting” in front of “coal burning power plants.”

"These count among the changes that Florida education officials asked science textbook publishers to make in the summer of 2024 that either watered down or eliminated content about the climate crisis, an investigation by WUSF + The Hechinger Report has found."

"Not changes that were required to bring the textbooks in line with the [existing] state science standards," said Glenn Branch, deputy director of the National Center for Science Education, a nonprofit that tracks how climate is taught in classrooms across the country.

"These revelations come as the state is quietly updating its science standards for the first time since 2008." Academic standards outline what knowledge + skills a student should master in each grade + subject; the existing science standards mandate that students be taught about human-caused CC in several high school electives—including earth science, marine science, + environmental science—and leaves room for the subject to arise in several other classes.

"But it’s unclear whether Florida’s updated science standards will include education about CC, which has already shaped the lives of many of the state’s 3 M students. The reasons are obvious, but state education officials did not respond to repeated questions on the topic.

Governor Ron DeSantis officially removed references to CC from state statutes in May 2024. Morally, censorship ranks right up there with book burning. Officials ought to end up in a certain level in Hades.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Ember: "Supply: solar is now the less capital-intensive option." "Solar now requires less upfront investment (capital intensity) than fossil power plants.

Continued drop in solar costs. Financing for solar projects (cost of capital) is cheaper than for fossil fuels; batteries are more affordable than extending electricity grids to remote areas; and the price of electric end-use technologies has fallen by up to 95%." What's not to like?

"Conventional wisdom [held] that renewables carry a higher upfront cost than fossil fuels, and that in emerging markets, where borrowing costs are high, solar + wind faced a double disadvantage; they [required] more capital + more expensive financing than fossil power." Both assumptions have now been inverted.

A decade ago, a solar plant could require up to 5 times the upfront investment of a comparable coal or gas plant per megawatt-hr [MWh] delivered. Solar then could still be competitive over its full lifetime through avoided fuel costs; but where capital is scarce, lifetime economics rarely determine investment decisions. Upfront costs do, and on that measure solar used to lose. But—drum roll please.

"Solar alone is now competitive with fossil power on a pure capital expenditure (capex) basis, + solar-plus-storage is expected to follow by around 2030." By 2035, both will be cheaper to build than new fossil alternatives.

"It is now fossil fuels, not solar, that carry the burden of [upfront] capital intensity."

And once built, solar has no fuel costs: it beats fossil alternatives from day one and widens its advantage with every year of operation.

Like I said, what's not to like? Unless you are perchance invested in more expensive + more polluting fossil fuels. Or haven't started your own personal transition to the electrostate, which would be smart because it's affordable more + more as time goes by.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

CanaryMedia: "Gary power outage underscores stakes of Solar for All Cancellations," by Kari Lydersen. Last month violent storms + tornadoes struck NW Indiana, + thousands went without power for as long as 2 full weeks following the storms.g

Graphic of energy resilience. "Many of the homes were underinsured or uninsured, many people in the community had underlying health issues."

The preparation should have been "solar panels + batteries spread throughout Gary, which could have allowed people to charge their phones + computers, chill their food + medicine, operate their medical devices, + simply turn on the lights while they dealt with all the other damage + turmoil."

Last year the city could have received federal funding to 'outfit Gary with hundreds of rooftop solar arrays, battery storage, community solar, + microgrids, plus at least one resiliency hub at a downtown community center, where people could come for power and support. "[That] effort was put on hold when Trump canceled the federal Solar for All program in 2025. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called the larger program it was a part of a “boondoggle.”

Indiana had been awarded $117 M for solar, battery, + microgrid installations for marginalized communities under the program, created by the IRA. "Tens of millions of those dollars had been earmarked to pay for the Gary projects, which would have also brought 100 jobs to the once-thriving industrial city now notorious for disinvestment."

Adding to the difficulty is rate increases by NIPSCO, the utility that serves northwest Indiana. "Gary residents bear a steep energy burden, + electric rates for a typical household rose by around $83 a month between 2023 and 2025."

Indiana has now already seen 84 tornadoes in 2026, breaking the annual record of 72 set in 2014, not to mention the derechos, floods, + other storms battering the state in recent months.

There may well be a climate signature here, as increased storminess is part of the story, but that would require an evaluation by a group such as World Weather Attribution [WWA].

Especially important now as we need to batten down the hatches for the Super El Niño coming to a theater near you.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

AAAS: "Oh, swell: Scientists identify a new way for your car to corrode," by Adrian Cho. "Corrosion constantly destroys the integrity of metal objects ranging from bridges to cars, driving a global market for anti-corrosion coatings," which protect the metal from water.

Water especially corrosive if it contains salt or acid. 'Zhongyuan Ni + Hans-Jürgen Butt, interfacial physicists, now report that static electricity can breech such barriers. Polytetrafluoroethylene [PTFE]—commonly know as Teflon™—contains fluorine, carbon + hydrogen. "PTFE is inert to virtually all chemicals + considered the most slippery material in existence, making it one of the most valuable, versatile technologies invented."

The physicists let droplets of slightly salty water fall from a syringe onto a copper surface coated with 60 nanometers [nm] of PTFE. Falling directly onto the surface, they rolled off harmlessly. But first running down a tilted insulating surface, the coated copper became pitted after a few thousand drops.

"A trip down a few cm of window glass, a plastic building material, even a leaf from a potted plant was enough to make the droplets corrosive." Atomic force microscopy showed that some pits reached into the copper. "Fluorescence microscopy revealed that the copper exposed by the pits was reacting with the water."

Electrodes revealed that neutral droplets gained up to 2 nanocoulombs before reaching the sample. When the droplets came within 10 micrometers of the surface, the tiny charge produced an electric field strong enough to cause PTFE to break down. "Engineers...may have missed the effect because they usually use coatings about 100 nm thick, too thick to be thus damaged." Coatings often include conductive layers, meant to prevent the buildup of static electricity + dust; those layers would short-circuit the corrosive effect.

Junwoo Park, a physical chemist at Sogang University, says “industry has effectively been operating in the safe zone without knowing it,” adding that the trend is to make coatings thinner. When coatings fail, experts typically blame pinholes, abrasion, or moisture ingress.

This new mechanism is death by a thousand cuts, as it were.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Substack: "Less than 300 million barrels left: the engineering limits threatening the American Strategic Petroleum Reserve," by Siddharth Misra.

"The oil market is not being stabilized by fresh supply growth but by aggressive depletion of emergency inventories, a strategy that only buys time rather than solving the imbalance." As crude inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve [SPR] drain toward their operational limits, America is left supplied with just 300 M barrels. "This dwindling buffer forces the nation into a high-stakes standoff against the uncompromising laws of fluid dynamics, immense geological forces, strict federal statutes, + relentless geopolitical pressure."

The SPR is a subsurface engineering marvel. "Spanning 60 massive underground salt caverns across four storage sites in Texas + Louisiana, the system holds a combined authorized capacity of 714 million barrels."

"These solution-mined cavities are gigantic, often 300 feet wide + 2,000 feet tall, large enough to stack the Empire State Building inside." Because these caverns operate entirely on a liquid displacement system, they can never be left empty, for if the fluids were removed without replacement, the immense geological weight of the overlying earth would cause the salt domes to [irreparably] collapse inward like a crushed shield.

"The crude oil volume currently stands at approximately 293 M barrels." The remainder is entirely heavy salt brine used to push the oil out. "Operating below this 300-million-barrel threshold pushes the aging infrastructure into uncharted and hazardous territory."

"According to the Department of Energy, the absolute physical minimum crude oil inventory is approximately 70 million barrels." This cushion is required at the very top of the caverns to keep the extraction pipes safely submerged in oil rather than the underlying water. "But while 70 M barrels is the structural floor where the salt rock might physically hold together, the practical operational floor is much higher, around 250 M barrels."

My math suggests the SPR is only 43 M barrels from rock bottom. You should be glad I'm driving an EV.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

APNews: "Wave energy testing site opens off Oregon, a green energy milestone in the Trump administration," by Jennifer McDermott. "The first large site in the continental U.S. for testing technologies that generate electricity from ocean waves is now open."

Open after securing a key green-energy approval from the Trump administration." Federal approval is notable because Trump has created massive hurdles for clean energy, particularly offshore wind.

"[He] has implemented policies that slow energy permitting + development, canceled billions in grants for hundreds of clean energy projects + spent nearly $4 B to buy back leases to stop offshore wind projects."

But Trump officials see promise in harnessing the power of the ocean’s waves. "Companies can now bring wave energy [designs] off the coast of Oregon to PacWave South to test their ability to generate power in the open + and deliver it to the local grid."

The complex developed by Oregon State University is open to all comers. PacWave had to pass a “go/no-go” review at the Energy Department to open. "But the facility has yet to generate any electricity because no wave energy devices have arrived, [as they faced] delays in federal funding."

Marine energy refers to power generated from tides, currents or waves. "Bringing PacWave South online will help streamline the testing and permitting process that has held back marine energy such as point absorbers, oscillating water columns + attenuators for decades." Federal estimates are that these technologies have the potential to power a whopping 57% of U.S. electrical needs.

PacWave South is “pre-permitted,” which means developers can bring several types of wave energy converters there without having to acquire permits on their own for testing, saving them time + money.

Ever been in a stadium as the wave circled around the stands? That's the potential for all coastal nations.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

AAAS: "Previously collected fossils prove a treasure trove for understanding the origin of insects," by Elizabeth Pennissi. A team of paleontologists challenge the concept that all insects have 6 legs after re-examining 4 enigmatic fossils found in Illinois, Texas, + Scotland.

"Insects are the most successful + diverse land animals, with millions of species." The finds, reported in Nature, "suggest many-legged critters represent missing links between modern winged insects and their predecessors."

“But we know almost nothing about where they came from,” says Erik Tihelka, a paleontologist at the University of Cambridge. “Their ancestors were seagoing crustaceans such as shrimp and krill.” But what crawled onto land was a mystery because there are so few fossils of early insects.

Tihelka examined an unusual fossil in the San Diego Natural History Museum more closely using polarized light. “[He] and his colleagues realized the critter was part insect, part crustacean.” It had a 3-part midsection with 3 pairs of walking legs, a rear end with 11 segments, a long tail filament, an egg-laying tube, + a pair of unbranched antennae. "Collectively, those traits are associated with things you’d see in modern-day insects, not crustaceans, but it also had multiple pairs of legs on its [hindquarters], a decidedly crustacean trait."

"Because in the Navajo creation story, Earth’s first inhabitants were insectlike beings, Tihelka and his team named the fossil Chosha praecursor, from the Navajo word for insect, opting for something more poetic than a Latin moniker."

"Next, they looked at 3 other puzzling fossils that similarly had legs or leglike stubs on their bellies. "The Scottish specimen, which had been named Leverhulmia and was originally thought to be a relative of millipedes, lived 405 M years ago." The 2 from Illinois lived about 100 M years later.

Intriguingly, "they [all] retained some traits that would have allowed them to flit between life on land and in the sea." For example, Chosha’s hind belly legs broadened into “paddles” at their ends, which might have helped them move in water—or possibly served as gills.

Paleontology continues to amaze me.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Stanford: "A blueprint for mapping melting ice sheets," by Corey Binns. "Ice-penetrating radar is a core tool used by glaciologists monitoring how ice sheets contribute to rising sea levels."

$Researchers in the Stanford Radio Glaciology lab use radio waves to understand rapidly changing ice sheets and their contributions to global sea-level rise. This technique has revealed open water beneath Greenland, the long-term impacts of extreme melt, a process that could accelerate ice sheet mass loss, in Antarctica, the potential instability of an ice sheet that could raise sea levels by 10 feet, and more. Now, PhD students within the group have created an open-source tool so other scientists can construct ice-penetrating radar systems at a fraction of the cost of current methods. "The Open Radar Code Architecture (ORCA) offers scientists a cheaper, easier, + more efficient way to build both airborne + ground-based radars, even if they lack a technical engineering background." Ice-penetrating radars can cost tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars, while the lowest-cost version of the team’s open-source radar costs only $1,500—not that you will find these in a big box store near you anytime soon. 'The ice sheets + glaciers atop Greenland + Antarctica are critically important, providing habitats to wildlife, storing > half of the planet’s freshwater, and contributing to evolution of the climate.' They are major contributors to the sea-level rise that threatens the 680 M people who live in low-lying coastal zones—yet the uncertainty of projections may be underestimating that threat. Earth’s ice sheets represent the largest contribution to uncertainty in average sea-level rise by 2100, according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models. “I think we’re going to see some really exciting and first-of-their kind experiments enabled by this system,” said Principal Investigator Dustin Schroeder, whom I met at a school reunion well over a decade ago.$

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

AAAS: "Medieval Europe was battered with 16 catastrophic floods in just 2 years," by Julia Vaz. "The intense deluges, never before documented, represent the highest number of back-to-back extreme weather events in the past 700 years."

“It’s kind of bad luck to be alive in the 1340s,” says medieval historian Martin Bauch of the Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe. Published this month in Nature, scientists saw evidence of ~16 cascading floods that wreaked havoc between late 1341 + 1343—the largest number of back-to-back flooding events documented in the past 700 years."

Flood after flood would have been particularly devastating for medieval Europe. "Many towns + villages relied heavily on rivers for transportation, trade, + water-powered mills. "Deluges would have drowned thousands, while many more perished from resulting food shortages + diseases."

'These events were closely followed by the arrival of the Black Death [Yersinia pestis, causing bubonic plague], that killed millions in Europe.' As a result, geographer + medieval historian Andrea Kiss of the Vienna University of Technology, spent “immeasurable hours” in medieval archives looking for any mention of flooding. "Patchworking > 1000 sources, it became clear to her the accounts didn’t point to a singular flood occurring in 1342."

"Kiss’s work first started in Hungary, where more detailed administrative records painted a picture of multiple floods in a short period of time." Authorities moved from providing only religious services to also building inland levees and floodways.

Work helps shed light on a period of climatic transition that brought about the start of the "Little Ice Age", marked by extreme weather with an increase in high-intensity cyclones, volcanic eruptions, + changes in Arctic sea ice.

Modern Europe’s flood risk is expected to increase as the climate warms. 'A better picture of past deluges could help improve...future climate modeling + mitigate flood risk.'

For all those who long for the good life in the old days, perhaps a reconsideration is in order. For one thing, no vaccinations yet existed.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Book Lovers & Ukraine Guardian: "The week around the world in 20 pictures," by Jim Powell. The photo was taken by Oleksandr Ratushniak for Reuters.

I have been a supporter of the Guardian for yrs, but had forgotten until now that they had a weekly photo essay. The title of this single piece is simply "Kyiv,Ukraine."

The description simply states 'charred books after a fire at the country’s biggest book market, caused by a Russian missile attack,' which is simply desolation.

Another example of how warfare releases huge carbon emissions.

"The Ukrainian Book Institute has called on the international publishing community to support Ukrainian publishers after Russian attacks in July and early August destroyed about 10 M books and a significant share of the country’s book production capacity."

I don't commonly address politicized reports already extensively covered in the mainstream press, but as a writer + book lover myself, this is one of the more poignant pictures from Kyiv that I have ever seen.

Which is why I found it impossible to resist. If you go to the website, you can peruse all 20 great photographs from around the world. Outside our shop, we have both the Stars and Strips + Ukrainian flags flying proudly.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

This is a companion piece to what I posted yesterday, Commenters in general sounds pretty serious when they claim that we can't afford solar + wind + storage 'because they make power less affordable.'

$This graph of all 50 states + D.C. + US territories plots residential retail electricity price against the fraction of electricity generation from renewable or sustainable power. The red line is the average price per kWh for the twelve months up through the end of March this year, though actually at the moment the price is 18.44¢ per kWh, up 6.2% year-over-year. This is represented by the horizontal red line—flat as a pancake. States such as Virginia + Louisiana + Kentucky on the left lie near the basement in terms of proportion of renewables on their grid. Conversely, Montana + South Dakota on the right annually produce something l 120% of their demand, obviously exporting a lot of electricity to neighboring states. The blue line shows the inverse correlation between cost of electricity + higher fraction of renewables. In 1932, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis in an opinion used the phrase "states are the laboratories of democracy", which means individual state governments can try out + test new laws and social policies. With the data from yesterday + today we can see how these electrical laboratory experiments are playing out. Therefore, what we now know is 2 things. First—while there are multitudinous influences on the grid—states that successfully experimented with renewables have lower electricity costs in 2026. Second—solar + wind + storage in the grid of 2050 will take up less space than fossil fuels do right now. I would like to argue that the data from yesterday + today should lay to rest at least some of the misinformation about solar + wind. Call me unrealistic, but I think of myself as rationally optimistic. Always.$

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Attended a virtual Stanford lecture a few days ago, + wanted to share the first of 2 fascinating slides. A number of commenters on posts I have published recently have been dismissive of wind + solar based chiefly on the land area needed for deployment.

Attended a virtual Stanford lecture a few days ago, + wanted to share a fascinating slide. Number of commenters on recent posts dismiss wind + solar based chiefly on land area needed for deployment. They argue valuable agricultural land is sacrificed, denying the demonstrated utilitarian use of all the free space between the onshore turbines or utility-scale solar for crops + livestock. Mark Jacobson's hypothetical projection for 2050 with full electrification includes almost all transportation. Coal is eliminated except for some metallurgical purposes, no longer for power. Petroleum + fossil methane + propane are limited to petrochemicals but no longer power. Nuclear is limited to research reactors, generation of medically useful isotopes + a dwindling number of legacy power reactors.

On the slide note that for the midcentury US, using only sustainable energy types [indicated by the blue arrows], onshore wind would take up on 0.24% of land area + utility-scale solar [ignoring rooftop solar which does not] + centralized solar power [of which I am not a fan] would use a further 0.87%.

Compare that to 2026, where already 1.24% of land area is committed just to corn-based biofuel [a huge boondoggle, wasting taxpayer money] + 1.16% of land for the various fossil fuel industries, with all their pollution + despoliation [indicated by the red arrows]. The comparison then is simple addition.

Total US land area in 2050 committed to just wind + solar would be only 1.11%. Compare that to US land area even now in 2026 committed to fossil fuels + corn-based ethanol 2.4%, more than twice as much.

Folks who may be ambivalent about climate science should stop using the argument wind + solar use too much space. Second point is that for the others who will argue that I'm hopelessly utopian in promoting this vision, I argue that the true utopians are those who think we can burn fossil fuels + build nuclear forever. What cannot continue forever will stop. Full stop.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Bellingham Herald: "Drought, fires, floods: Super El Niño could prove devastating for Whatcom County," by Robert Mittendorf. This winter could be the fifth snow drought year in a row for Whatcom County, + our water is already over-allocated.

This year’s “super El Niño” could be bad news for not just this county but also the rest of Western Washington in several other ways, say meteorologists + climate researchers.

"Not just that a warmer, drier winter could make it tough for the mountain resorts that require snow." Warmer ocean temperatures can also harm salmon populations, cause flooding in low-lying coastal areas, + worsen the state’s drought, leading to water shortages + wildfires next year as well.

"During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950." El Niño is the warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures west of equatorial South America, part of a cyclical climate pattern that influences weather conditions around the globe. "For the Pacific Northwest, an El Niño generally means warmer average winter temperatures, along with a lower mountain snowpack + less lowland rain."

Our state climatologist stated sea levels can rise 6-12" during an El Niño year, probably due to a combination of shifting currents + wind. "Rising ocean height can be especially destructive when storms coincide with extreme high tides in winter." According to a "story map” of natural hazards for Whatcom County, coastal flooding is possible from Blaine to Chuckanut Bay, and especially in Birch Bay, Point Roberts, Sandy Point, Lummi Island + the Lummi Peninsula.

"If the warmer ocean temperatures linger into spring, Whatcom County could see more algal blooms that result in shellfish poisoning." But to reiterate, by far the most serious environmental threat from a super El Niño is to our local salmon populations.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

AAAS: "Slavery linked to mortality gap between Black and white Americans today," by Laura Martín Agudelo. 'In 1953, civil rights activist James Baldwin wrote that “people are trapped in history and history is trapped in them.”

"Black people in the U.S. are already well-known to have a lower life expectancy at birth than white people, but the new analysis finds that [from] 2010 to 2020, they had significantly increased mortality rates in U.S. counties [notice, counties, not states] that relied the most on slavery just before the Civil War." In fact, 'mortality rates during that decade was 20 times greater in those counties compared with ones with no slavery recorded in the 1860 U.S. census.'

"According to a 2025 Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, a Black person born in the U.S. in 2023 could expect to live to the age of 74 on average, about 4 years less than their white counterpart." Black mothers are 3 times as likely as white mothers to die within 1 year of giving birth. Their babies have higher rates of prematurity + low birth weight. "Black people also have higher death rates related to conditions such as cancer, diabetes, or heart disease."

Manuel Galvan, a social psychologist at the University of California, Berkeley is the lead author on this Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences study just published. In counties where 92% of the population had been enslaved, there were more than 200 additional deaths per 100,000 people among Black people in the 2010s, compared with white people—a gap about 20 times greater than the one observed in counties with no slavery. "Slavery’s reach into the present…operates through how slavery shaped poverty or educational [or health care access] disparities.”

The current administration cannot white-wash slavery out of American history, but it's surely making the attempt. "During President Donald Trump’s second administration, officials at the National Institutes of Health have repeatedly sought to terminate grants funding research on health disparities, including a fresh round of cuts that Science reported last month."

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

AAAS: "Drought may have driven Brazil’s first yellow fever outbreak in nearly 80 years," by Ailie McWhinnie. "Dry conditions forced forest-dwelling primates into the cities, bringing with them mosquitoes—and disease."

The country hadn’t seen a single outbreak of the devastating disease—whose flulike symptoms can develop into jaundice, bleeding + organ failure—since 1942, thanks primarily to widespread vaccination plus mosquito control efforts.

In 2017, the disease made a dramatic comeback. "Cases spread through several cities, infecting more than 2000 people in just 2 years; more than 700 died."

Scientists concocted a counterintuitive hypothesis for the sudden spread of the virus. Although wet weather often increases the risk of mosquito-borne diseases, it was actually a severe drought affecting Brazil in 2017 that pushed the country into the outbreak, according to a modeling study published in Science Advances.

"Although Brazil had long controlled urban transmission of yellow fever—which depends on the infamous Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that have evolved to live around humans—the disease has continued to circulate in the forest among nonhuman primates, transmitted by mosquito species such as Haemagogus." In rural + forest communities, people who are bitten by these mosquitoes occasionally catch the virus, resulting in about 20 yellow fever cases each year.

The researchers built a mathematical model simulating virus transmission between the 2 mosquito species + howler monkeys, marmosets, + humans, incorporating data on animal life spans, incubation intervals, probabilities of infection after biting, + recovery rates. Interestingly, prior research had suggested that mosquitoes may bite more frequently in dry conditions to avoid desiccation.

Combine that with the idea that because the virus had been so well controlled, many people no longer deemed it a risk, resulting in low vaccination coverage. In that sense, the parallel with measles vaccination in the US is compelling.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

CLOUD Award However immodestly, I would like to trumpet that I have just received notification of another award for CLOUD DRAGON, published in 2025. The Storytrade Award is for books set in the northeastern United States, rewarding "craft, excellence and innovation." Here is the jacket blurb:

"Climate fiction Without the End of the World

"Electrical engineering professor Jake Harper maintains his laser focus on the repair and re-engineering of the North American electric grids.

"Abbey London is the junior partner in an infectious disease practice with principal interest and expertise in novel vector-borne disorders.

"Together they operate Dragonfly Inn in nearby Virginia and care for their infant daughter with support from an au pair.

"Jake identifies evidence of a looming kinetic attack against the grid from photographs taken by his students, while Abbey discovers yet again an infection never before encountered in this hemisphere."

All three books in my Trilogy of Dragons may be ordered from the website—swlawrence.com—online from almost anywhere, or perhaps best of all—independent bookstores. I will shortly be announcing launch events for FOSSIL DRAGON in several states, after starting with a delightful remote event in the Philippines just yesterday as a matter of fact. I'm still scratching my head on that one.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

ClimateCentral: "Warming U.S. Cities Face Higher Cooling Demand and Energy Bills." "This Climate Matters analysis is based on open-access data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (U.S. EIA)."

Demand for cooling is rising across the U.S., contributing to higher energy bills as households rely more on air conditioning in our warming climate—instead of the superior option of heat pumps for combination heating + cooling throughout the yr. "Cooling degree days—a temperature-based metric used to estimate the demand for energy to cool buildings—have increased since 1970 in 97% of the 241 major U.S. cities analyzed," with Austin, Texas just chosen as the poster child.

"Based on long-term trends in cooling degree days, these cities have seen a 37% increase in cooling demand, on average, since the early 1970s," essentially the last half century. Logically, "households tend to spend more on cooling in warmer U.S. states that have higher annual cooling degree days." In the 10 states with the highest average cooling costs, households spent between $378 (in Hawaii) and $712 (in Arizona) on cooling in 2020, a metric which shows that finding updated figures—even, or perhaps especially, from governments—can be more difficult than pulling teeth.

As you can imagine, those most at risk are the poor, more equaterward located + extremes of age.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Guardian: "Fossils show huge carbon emissions harm forests, not ‘green the planet," by Oliver Milman. Study of 56m-year-old leaves counters claims from Trump administration members of ‘benefits’ of fossil fuel pollution.

'An analysis of fossilized leaf cells from a period known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), which occurred about 56m years ago, helped reconstruct how the world’s forests responded when planet-heating gases were last previously released rapidly.' The current galloping pace of carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is unmatched in historic + prehistoric records except for the PETM, when huge amounts of carbon were emitted over 130,000-yr period. The world heated up by as much as 8ºC = 14ºF.

"Authors of new paper found this prehistoric change caused a retreat in forests that blanketed the Paleocene-Eocene world, causing die off as the Earth browned rather than greened, a finding [with] “chilling implications."

“What we see is that as CO2 ramped up, forests became very dense, then subsequently collapsed, opening up dramatically,” said Regan Dunn, a researcher at La Brea Tar Pits + the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County." “Around 60% of the biomass of the standing vegetation was gone; it was a huge loss." This is a concern because the rate of carbon release has never been higher than the present.

"Once the world started to burn coal, oil + gas in huge volumes from the industrial revolution onwards, the amount of emitted carbon dioxide surged at an unprecedented rate, with atmospheric concentrations of CO2 rising by > 50% in little over a century." Idiotically, prominent figures in Trump’s administration argue that burning fossil fuels benefits the environment.

“CO2 was never a pollutant,” Doug Burgum, the interior secretary, told Fox Business earlier this year. Same TV network last year, Last yr on the same TV network, Chris Wright, the energy secretary, said that there were “pluses” to global heating as well as negatives.

In hindsight, all I can see is the north ends of two horses galloping south.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

CanaryMedia: "In this Brooklyn warehouse, stoves are turned into batteries," by Maria Gallucci. "Startup Electra is outfitting induction stoves with slender batteries that enable the electric appliances to be plugged into a standard outlet—and [support] the grid."

Unlike many induction stoves on the market, Electra’s model can plug into a standard 120-volt outlet and draw power to charge a 5-kWh battery. "Induction cooktop heats pans directly using electromagnetism, while the oven cooks food using [conventional] electric-resistance elements."

Customers can choose to use their batteries for ancillary grid storage. "With its software partners, Electra directs the batteries to charge up during the most beneficial times—for example, when solar power production is most abundant—and to discharge power during the grid’s peak demand periods."

'Induction cooks faster and more efficiently than old-school gas + electric appliances, and, unlike gas stoves, it doesn’t release pollutants that can harm people’s health.' Although federal rebates for electrification expired abruptly under the Trump administration, some states + utilities still offer incentives to help defray the upfront cost of going electric.

'Electra’s induction stove costs $3,999, more than triple the price of Wirecutter’s highest-rated electric range—although because that model uses 240 volts, this might require upgrading a home’s electrical panel, rewiring the kitchen, or hiring electricians to hook it up.' Electra says its unit avoids those added costs and, thanks to its battery, can even operate for several meals in a blackout. "Early data show that people who cook frequently are still using only about a fifth of the battery’s power per day, which bodes well for the lithium iron phosphate [LFP] device’s longevity."

"The company is also developing a pilot program with the city of Burbank, California, to help residents electrify their kitchens." And it’s partnering with a property owner closer to home, in the Bronx, to equip an 80-unit apartment building with its stoves.

It's a startup + early mover, which tend to have hiccups. I love the concept, + I like the startup. Time will tell.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

ClimateForwardNewsletter: "Birds are dying. Clues point to El Niño," by Catrin Einhorn. "Every month, Giovanny Suárez Espín walks a beach near his home in southern Ecuador, monitoring for dead seabirds." On recent surveys, the sand has been littered with carcasses.

"It’s too soon to say for certain what has caused the spike in deaths, which has affected various species, including sooty shearwaters, Peruvian and blue-footed boobies, cormorants, petrels + the critically endangered waved albatross. Die-offs in sea birds aren’t uncommon, but these are unusually emaciated.

During an El Niño in the Pacific, the normal upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters weakens. Fewer nutrients near the surface lead to less phytoplankton, which leads to fewer small fish like sardines and anchovies, and so on up the food chain. “Larger fish have the opportunity to feed deeper if there are deeper resources available or to move out of the region, but the seabirds don’t have that luxury.

"Historically, seabird populations were much more robust than they have been in recent decades, which gave them better resilience during natural El Niño cycles." But between 1950 and 2010 alone, monitored seabird populations decreased by 70%. ”Coastal development is taking over habitats." Introduced predators like snakes and rats are decimating seabird eggs. "Fishing hooks [+ plastic] are choking them." Nets are drowning them.

"Then there is the bird-killing ocean heat, which isn’t always tied to El Niño but is intensified by climate change." About half of Alaska’s common murres, some four million birds, died as a result of a marine heat wave from 2015-16. In March and April, a marine heat wave in California may have been behind a brief increase in reports of dead birds, including brown pelicans, loons and grebes, said Krysta Rogers, environmental scientist focusing on avian investigations in California.

Since we are speaking of birds, recall the analogy of the canary in the coal mine. To extend this back further, link that coal burning to the devolving climate to the loss of seabirds. The connections are clear.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

AAAS: "Halted dam releases threaten Colorado river ecosystems." "Last week, Lake Mead reached its lowest water level on record, and is now at only 27% of its [design] capacity." It was last full in 1983 + has declined almost continuously over this century .

Most of the water going to growing cities + thirsty crops in Arizona, California, and Nevada. "If levels continue to fall, it could jeopardize production of hydropower from the dams, which generate enough electricity for 1.6 million homes."

In 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) opened outlets at the base of the Colorado River’s mighty Glen Canyon Dam, unleashing gushers of water in an experiment meant to cool waters downstream. The strategy, called a “cool mix” release, aimed to thwart breeding of invasive smallmouth bass and protect native species. “It was very effective,” says Kevin Bestgen, a fish biologist at Colorado State University, so much so that the release was repeated in 2025.

"But with the Colorado’s reservoirs at historically low levels, there may be little political will to release water to protect ecosystems." In August, USBR, which operates dams on the river, canceled this year’s cool mix release. In April, the agency also nixed one of the periodic “controlled floods,” a much larger cascade intended to redistribute sediment and build sandbars that provide habitat for fish.

"This year saw record low snowpack levels in the Rocky Mountains, which means less water flowing downstream into the two largest reservoirs in North America: Lake Powell behind the Glen Canyon Dam and, [downriver], Lake Mead behind the Hoover Dam." The new management plan gives USBR the right to cut back significantly how much water is released from the reservoirs. "Alongside reliable water delivery, a long-standing USBR priority has been hydropower."

Most people can see the fingerprints of climate change all over this scenario. We are in an era of protracted drought for the southwestern US. This is not manageable unless we fix the climate system.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

YaleNews: "Removing ‘forever chemicals’ from farmlands—at a fraction of the cost." A Yale-led research team has proposed a less expensive—and more environmentally friendly method—for removing certain “forever chemicals” from millions of acres of farmland in the US + around the world.

"The new process, which is based on data from agricultural sites in Maine, has the potential to address two connected environmental challenges: remediating per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) that have contaminated agricultural land for decades and scaling up the use of enhanced weathering to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere."

PFAS are a class of toxic, man-made chemicals that have been used for decades in hundreds of products, from dental floss [yuck] + lipstick [yuck again] to frying pans + pizza boxes [another reason home-made pizza is better]. PFAS are ubiquitous in the United States, having made their way into groundwater and soil, and then eventually croplands.

Just as important, the new approach allows previously contaminated cropland to once again be used for an agricultural purpose—unlike current remediation methods. Noah Planavsky, a professor of Earth and planetary science in Yale’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences, and the son and brother of farmers, is also a faculty member of the Yale Center for Natural Carbon Capture and principal investigator for a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences which describes the new method.

“Though this study is U.S.-focused, based on the available data, PFAS are a challenge globally,” said Jake Thompson, an associate researcher in the Planavsky Lab and first author of the study.

"There has been a lot of work on enhanced weathering (EW), a promising natural solution for durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) that builds on the longstanding practice of applying crushed rock (such as limestone [also serpentinite]) to agricultural lands to mitigate soil acidification."

EW uses the same method to accelerate the Earth’s natural geologic carbon cycle by spreading finely ground alkaline material (e.g. silicate rock such as basalt [+ serpentinite]) over agricultural fields.

Two birds with two stones, as it were.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

EIA: "Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years." 'Utility-scale battery storage capacity in US pole-vaulted over the Moon in last 3 years, with annualized average growth rate of 70%.'

"By end of 2025, U.S. had operational battery storage capacity of 43.6 gigawatts (GW)." During the first 6 months of 2026, operators added another 8.3 GW, based on EIA's latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.

"Operators anticipate bringing an additional 54 GW of battery storage capacity online over the next two and half years. Projections are for an additional 26 GW in 2027 + 14 GW in 2028, but I suspect this queue will expand, perhaps dramatically.

Recall also that this does not include all the distributed batteries in companies + homes, of which more + more will be made available for balancing the grid. I myself have been waiting impatiently in line for my own EV battery to get connected.

Solar arrays host the largest battery storage capacity units. "The Bellefield Solar and Energy Storage Farm, which began operations in December 2025, couples 500 megawatts (MW) of photovoltaic capacity with 500 MW of nameplate power storage for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)."

Plans for the Bellefield facility call for a doubling of the PV + storage capacity of the facility and for the new capacity to be operational by November this year. "If those plans materialize, the facility will become the largest power storage facility in the United States."

Detractors will jump on this sort of post with the argument that batteries don't actually 'generate' electricity. To forestall this argument, let me just say that I am happy to state that batteries 'usefully release' electricity. Hope this calms them down, as I am always striving for civility.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

AAAS: "COVID-19 can wake up dormant viruses in the body, large study confirms." Incidentally, the virus in the electron micrograph is not covid, rather the Epstein-Barr virus.

Incidentally, the virus in the electron micrograph is not covid, rather the Epstein-Barr virus.

"The human body is usually efficient at clearing viruses...but some, such as EBV, a herpesvirus that causes mononucleosis, stick around quietly in pockets of cells called reservoirs, until certain illnesses or other stressors unleash them." In COVID-19 patients, scientists have documented numerous instances of reactivation of EBV and other herpesviruses, including cytomegalovirus (CMV), which causes flulike symptoms in some people.

Esther Melamed, a neuroimmunologist at the University of Texas at Austin, in 2020 initiated a study to collect symptom reports + tissue samples including blood + nasal swabs from 1154 people with severe COVID-19 during the 12 months following their hospitalization. "EBV + CMV showed up frequently in the samples, albeit at different points in the course of COVID-19: EBV was often detected at hospitalization, whereas CMV detections spiked a few weeks later."

Anelloviruses, a group of extremely widespread, seemingly harmless human viruses, were also common around the time of hospitalization and several weeks afterward. Unlike earlier studies, they didn’t detect a link between EBV and these signs of Long Covid, but the team did find an association between anellovirus reactivation + fatigue or other physical challenges.

"So far, Long Covid has been blamed on everything from autoimmune-like responses to so-called microclots to trace amounts of SARS-CoV-2 that persist beyond initial infection." Danny Altmann, an immunologist at Imperial College London, says he’s pleased to see the possible role of virus reactivation getting attention amid this complicated debate.

To which I can only say "hear, hear."

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Grist: "This Texas coal mine will soon be home to a 1.2GW solar farm." "The project will use some of the land + assets from the adjacent Twin Oaks coal-fired power plant + Calvert surface coal mine, both of which will continue operating."

The clean energy project will be among the largest in the nation—and biggest solar array ever built at a brownfield site in North America.

"The giant installation will further boost Texas’ thriving solar sector, which this year is expected to generate more electricity than coal in the Lone Star State." The renewable resource is helping meet the state’s energy demand from the triple demands of data centers, manufacturing facilities, + rising air-conditioning.

"Work has started on the first phase of the solar farm, a 491-MW section that is set to go online in August 2028." The remaining 658 MW could start producing power in August 2029.

'The 10,000-acre Big Rooter site will also include 1.6 GW-hours of battery storage, an upgraded electrical substation + 20 miles new extra-high-voltage transmission lines.'

Much less beneficially, the investment firm says it also has the infrastructure + fossil gas access needed to build at least 800 MW of gas-fired generation, either for the grid or for customers like data center developers.

Seems to me a sad story of 1-step forward, 1-step backward, in terms of reaching the critically need transition to an electrostate. Not to mention the smoke emissions of coal + fossil gas will require nearly constant washing of the solar panels.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

SkepticalScience: "New Mexico’s clean energy success story." "July is the most electricity-intensive time of yr in U.S., + the grid [works] hard to keep up." Many places, high electricity demand equals high pollution, which used to be true in New Mexico.

The state’s electricity supply flipped from majority climate-warming fossil fuels to majority renewables in just 5 yrs. Think on that, just 5 yrs. "Spurred by an ambitious clean energy law called Energy Transition Act, utilities [got] busy building solar arrays, wind turbines, batteries, + transmission." A major coal plant was retired + decommissioned. "Solar panels proliferated on homes, schools, businesses."

"Even while New Mexico was building out its clean energy future, electricity prices remained cheaper than average." New Mexico’s largest utility is Public Service Company of New Mexico, or PNM. "Only 5 yrs ago, most of PNM’s cooling needs were met by coal + gas, which made up 83% of its electricity generation in July of 2021."

Now abundant sunshine provides much of the region’s electricity. The 'golden' line on the graph shows [only] grid-scale solar every day for wk of July 6th, when solar flux generated 41% of the power.

Second, the 'green' line shows electricity stored + released by utility-scale batteries. During daytime, the line dips below zero when the batteries are pulling electricity off the grid to charge up. In the hot summer evenings, the green lines spike upward, as PNM’s battery fleet comes to life, delivering the solar energy stored just a few hours earlier.

The next big player is wind, the 'blue' line on the graph, when the wind blows strongest in the evening—it’s the perfect complement to solar in this region. Thus, wind accounted for 20% of electricity generation during the week shown.

Fourth, the 'brown' line on the graph shows electricity generated from fossil gas.

Finally, the nearly flat 'black' line exemplifies how coal works best at a constant pace.

Take a deep breath, close your eyes for a moment, + imagine if every state + territory could accomplish such an abrupt transition simultaneously. It never hurts to dream.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

CanaryMedia: "States join fight against Trump administration’s wind farm blockade." An addled as Don Quixote, Trump continues to tilt at windmills. "The Defense Department has essentially frozen permitting for new wind installations over last year, preventing > 155 projects from moving forward."

Sheep seeking shade. Pushing back, 'a coalition of 18 states and Washington, D.C., has moved to join an industry lawsuit challenging the freeze on onshore wind projects in America.'

Trump's attacks on offshore wind have been the loudest + most brazen, but onshore wind has not been spared. Last July, the Interior Department created a “choke point” for permitting new wind and solar projects on federal lands. "One month later, in August 2025, the Defense Department quietly stopped issuing national-security approvals to onshore wind project—a move that has impacted dozens of gigawatts of wind projects across both public + private land." In May, industry groups + wind developers filed suit against the freeze, arguing that the delays created by the agency may threaten the viability of certain projects by causing them to miss deadlines to lock in expiring federal tax credits—or just as seriously—to interconnect to the grid.

"Trump claims the pause is necessary due to national security concerns." Laughably, he provided a similar justification when halting work on all 5 in-progress offshore wind farms last year, but the argument was swiftly rebuked by federal judges five different times. “For more than a decade, DoD engaged in a predictable review process and worked with developers to mitigate potential concerns,” according to Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell. The DoD’s delay tactics could negatively affect grid reliability, energy affordability, climate goals, and jobs—and undermine state sovereignty.

I would have to use much stronger insults than quixotic to describe what Trump is doing.

BTW, note in the photograph that sheep while may not be detectives but certainly find shade where they deduce it to be.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

DW: "Why is Germany building roads for yesterday's climate?" "As the Autobahn buckles under heat waves, Germany is still paving roads for a past climate." Engineers know how to fix that—so what's the holdup?

"Multi-day European heat waves with temperatures topping 40ºC (104ºF) are increasingly leaving a mark on Germany's famed Autobahn—buckling concrete slabs, deforming asphalt + forcing temporary speed limits." In early July alone, seven stretches of the country's highways had to be shut down completely for a time."

"The cause often lies in the bitumen—the petroleum-derived binder in asphalt. It's elastic and can soften at high temperatures, from around 60ºC [140ºF]," said Autobahn GmbH." Bitumen is a component in most of the country's roads. When outdoor temperatures climb above 30ºC, the surface of dark asphalt can quickly heat to double that or more in the sun and then deform.

Using modern, bitumen-free asphalt mixes lowers the risk of such damage. "The composition of the road surface is based on experience from the last 30 or 50 years," not on the increasingly noticeable shifts in the climate. "A 2019 study...found that dark asphalt heated up by 7ºC less when light-colored quartzite was mixed in."

Germany isn't alone in facing increasingly hot roads. "Tokyo, for example, already uses reflective, water-retaining road surfaces as standard when resurfacing streets". These can lower the surface temperature by 8 to 10ºC. "By 2030, some 245 kilometers (152 miles) of roads in the Japanese capital are to be fitted with them."

In Phoenix, light-colored coatings have also already been applied to numerous streets. They reflect more sunlight, so absorb less heat, but at the same time, this noticeably warms the surrounding air for passersby.

"Even as average temperatures keep rising, the challenge remains that the road surface also has to stay stable in freezing winter conditions." As an alternative to bitumen, high-performance binders that can survive both extremes—frost and heat—are currently being developed. Otherwise this begs a comparison to generals who plan to fight the last war.

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

AAAS: "These moths smell with their wings." "Like most insects, the wings of tobacco hawk moths (Manduca sexta) are covered in tiny hairs." These microscopic strands help insects taste and stay stable in flight.

"But the tobacco hawk moth’s wing hairs do something researchers haven’t documented in any other insect: they help the animal smell, researchers report this week in the Journal of Experimental Biology." When the scientists looked at the tiny wing hairs with both light and scanning electron microscopy, they found the hairs were porous: a telltale sign of olfactory function.

"Using a technique aptly named 'electrowingography,' the team placed the delicate detached wings between two electrodes and wafted odor molecules representing various chemical classes over them, hoping for a response." Two amines—a group of smelly organic compounds derived from ammonia, called pyrrolidine + piperidine—hit the mark.

"Further testing with artificial intelligence predicted these molecules would fit perfectly into two of the receptors present on the hairs, suggesting that the hairs are fine-tuned to pick up on these particular scents." The two amines are found in pungent, rotting smells, but also in the olfactory bouquet of tobacco plants, the insects’ preferred location for laying eggs.

"As such, their wings may work as accessory noses, helping guide them to these favorite spots."

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S. W. Lawrence, MD @swlawrence.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

OilPricedotcom: "Tidal Energy Could Cover 57% of US Electricity Demand, NREL Study Finds." While the National Renewable Energy Lab is a reliable source of data, it is more than ironic that this article appears on OilPrice.com, basically a bastion of support for all things fossil fuel.

"NREL estimates US marine energy sources could generate 2,300 terawatt-hours a year, or 57% of the country's 2019 electricity output, yet the US has zero commercial tidal plants running today."

An Alaska-based startup is piloting a small modular tidal turbine in Cape Cod's fast-moving currents to test its durability. "Similar pilots are underway in the Great Lakes and off the California coast, as US works to close the gap with Europe's lead in tidal and wave energy investment." Tapping into the country’s tidal energy potential could be a major game changer for homegrown energy security in America.

"While the US + Canada boast the highest surveyed levels of wave energy potential, the technology could provide a significant amount of the world’s energy needs if fully exploited." A new report from Ocean Energy Europe concluded that ocean energy has the potential to supply 21% of the European Union’s current energy consumption + a whopping 13% of global electricity demand.

"This could be revolutionary for Europe as the continent struggles to establish energy independence and wean itself off of fossil fuel imports against the backdrop of seemingly endless energy crises." Europe is currently leading in terms of spending on tidal energy research and development, but the US is quickly catching up thanks to ‘substantial’ funding programs from the Department of Energy. I would add that the USDOE is also lending full support for geothermal energy, in spite of crippling hostility to wind + solar.

So let us hope that in graphs of electric generation sectors will begin to blossom with tidal + geothermal categories. Incidentally, the graphic for this post is only 1 of many types of design.

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