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Switchbox @switch.box · 15/08/2025

But would it make homes’ winter energy bills lower than before they installed heat pumps? For the large majority of homes in Massachusetts, yes: 82% would see savings from switching to a heat pump, up from 45% today.

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Switchbox @switch.box · 15/08/2025

Our report models new rates (“2.0 rates”) proposed by MA’s own Department of Energy Resources (DOER)that would correct the overcharge. For the average household with heat pumps, the 2.0 rates would cut electricity bills by 23%.

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Switchbox @switch.box · 15/08/2025

Massachusetts has started rolling out new rates that offer lower delivery rates during winter for heat pump homes (“1.0” rates). It’s a step in the right direction—but not enough to fully correct the overcharge, or close the operating cost gap. 4/

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Switchbox @switch.box · 15/08/2025

Today, utilities are paying back loans for the grid they’ve already built to serve the summer peak. Because these costs are fixed, increased revenue from electrifying households allows utilities to reduce rates, which lowers electric bills for non-heat pump customers.

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Switchbox @switch.box · 15/08/2025

📢 New report drop: Heat Pump Rates in Massachusetts Heat pumps could cut bills for thousands of MA households—but only if the state gets the rates right. Right now, many heat pump users are being *overcharged* for their share of the grid. 1/🧵 🔗 www.switch.box/mahprates #energysky #climatesky

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Switchbox @switch.box · 09/05/2025

Probably nothing could have stopped the blackout once the 2 big plants went offline @ 12:33:16.5 (an "N-2" event). But the grid _did_ manage the initial generation loss ("N-1") at 12:32:57.3.

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Switchbox @switch.box · 09/05/2025

It was the worst of inverters: Grid-following inverter controls can interact in weird ways, and this _could be_ (we don’t know yet!) one contributor to the sub-synchronous oscillations that were observed right before the blackout. Read this paper www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... or 👇(6/9)

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Switchbox @switch.box · 09/05/2025

Generation loss was the proximate cause, but many blame solar plants for the conditions that made the Spanish grid unstable. Grids need inertia, and indeed _rotational_ inertia was low, but inverter-based resources can contribute synthetic inertia to achieve the same levels of resilience. (3/9)

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Switchbox @switch.box · 28/03/2025

Our analysis found this approach could save $4.7 billion through 2050 while electrifying over 313,000 homes. In the most suitable areas, it's about $10,465 cheaper per home to go electric than to replace the pipes—with savings growing to nearly $52,000 by 2050! 5/6

The median upfront costs per household to replace leak-prone pipleine in 2025 (2025 USD) by utility

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Switchbox @switch.box · 28/03/2025

Here's the situation: We estimate NY utilities plan to spend $43 billion to replace leak-prone gas pipes by 2050, all of which will be paid back by hiking gas bills. But, gas use in homes and biz fell by 13% 2019-2024 and will likely continue falling as the climate warms and homes go electric. 2/6

Map of leak prone pipe replacement costs per mile across utility service territories (2025 USD)

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Switchbox @switch.box · 28/03/2025

Our latest report asks a simple question: What if, instead of spending billions replacing aging gas pipes, utilities helped nearby homes switch to electric heating? The data shows this would often cost less, lower utility bills, AND cut pollution.Full report: switch.box/lpp Let's break it down: 1/6

Illustration of the leak prone pipe replacement vs. targeted electrification

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Switchbox @switch.box · 28/03/2025

Here's the situation: We estimate NY utilities plan to spend $43 billion to replace leak-prone gas pipes by 2050, all of which will be paid back by hiking gas bills. But gas use in homes and biz fell by 13% 2019-2024 and will likely continue falling as the climate warms and more homes go electric.

Map of leak prone pipe replacement costs per mile across utiltiy service territories (2025 USD)

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Switchbox @switch.box · 21/01/2025

Preview! Dandelion Energy CEO Kathy Hannun will talk at this Thursday's Speaker Series event about what state's are getting right and wrong when supporting deployment of ground source heat pumps. Don't miss it! RSVP here: lnkd.in/g4XF8A9s

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Switchbox @switch.box · 13/01/2025

The state would have 2x revenue to invest under high price scenario compared to low. Crucially, we find most households would be protected under higher prices—45% would be completely insulated, and 26% would pay $40 or less / month. High income households would pay 0.4% of their annual income. 14/14

Chart showing the change in energy costs experienced by New York households after receiving a proposed rebated, under a low and high carbon price scenario.

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Switchbox @switch.box · 13/01/2025

As a result, 46% of NY households—overwhelmingly low- and moderate-income ones—would be fully insulated from rising fossil fuel costs under a low price scenario. Another 40% would pay between $0-40 a month—assuming nobody reduces their fossil fuel use or switches to heat pumps / EVs. 13/14

Chart showing the change in energy costs experienced by New York households after receiving a proposed rebated, under a low carbon price scenario.

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Switchbox @switch.box · 13/01/2025

Finally, direct rebates. To offset rising fossil fuel prices, the state would return at least 30% of NYCI revenue back to households. Our report recommends 40% & proposes a rebate scheme that gives more money to households based on income, household size, local cost-of-living & cost of energy. 12/14

A chart showing dollar values of rebate that would be received by four-person households of different income levels in Bronx, Dutchess, and Nassau county, New York. Rebates would be more generous under higher carbon price scenarios.

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Switchbox @switch.box · 13/01/2025

Under TCC, communities decide what climate mitigation and adaptations they want, and the state gives them C&I dollars in the form of ~$30M grants, to build green affordable housing, free rooftop solar, EV charges, job training, tree planting, etc. 11/14

A photo of workers installing new solar panels on a residence. Photo credit: Transform Fresno

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Switchbox @switch.box · 13/01/2025

Would NYCI generate enough $ every year to pay for all this? Yes, under high allowance price scenario (if added to IRA & existing state funds). Under low scenario, giving 1/4 of NYCI revenue to the program would cover 3/4 of its costs. Full funding would mean no $ for transport, workforce... 9/14

A chart showing what percent of the cost of a proposed heat pump and weatherization incentive program would be covered by a combination of federal IRA funds, existing NYS ratepayer funds, and NYCI revenue would result, under a high and low allowance price scenario.

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Switchbox @switch.box · 13/01/2025

This incentive program would cost the gov. $5-6B a year over the next decade. If fully funded, NYS would be installing ~300K heat pumps and weatherizing ~179K units a year, a 10x jump from today. The result: 46% of homes electrified by 2035 + the state on track to decarb buildings by 2050. 8/14

A chart showing the cost of a proposed heat pump and weatherization incentive program, between 2025 and 2050.

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Switchbox @switch.box · 13/01/2025

Okay, so those are the savings if people switch to heat pumps & in many cases weatherize. Where does C&I revenue come in? Our report models what would happen if the state used 1/4 of it to offer generous incentives, so everyone can afford these upgrades when their current heating system dies. 7/14

A chart showing the number of boilers and furnaces that are expected to die every year in New York State, between 2025 and 2050.

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Switchbox @switch.box · 13/01/2025

What kinds of savings are we talking about? Depends on the home, of course, but the median household would save an average of $54 a month, or $648 a year. Under higher allowance prices, savings go up: to $804/yr under the low price scenario, $1020 under the high. 5/14

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Switchbox @switch.box · 13/01/2025

Let's dig into the spending. First, buildings. It turns out that 88% of dwellings in NY could lower their energy bills if they switched to heat pumps today, though 58% of these would first need to weatherize before seeing savings. (Under higher carbon prices, both of these numbers improve.) 4/14

A chart of NY households, classified according to the upgrades they would need to lower their bills when installing heat pumps. Also shown is how these numbers would change as the price of carbon rises in NYS.

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Switchbox @switch.box · 13/01/2025

Using data from @nyserda.bsky.social, we looked at two different scenarios: one with high allowance prices, and one with low ones (first chart). Because polluters must buy these allowances from the state, that creates revenue the state can spend on decarb or return to consumers (second chart). 3/14

A chart of high and low allowance price scenarios for New York State's planned cap-and-invest program. Data source: NYSERDA

Estimated NYCI annual revenue under a low and high allowance price scenario. Adjusted for inflation to 2024 USD. Data source: NYSERDA

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Switchbox @switch.box · 02/01/2025

📣 Tune in to learn about how Minnesota is forcing utilities to consider the future of gas and plan for net zero emissions by 2050 and the winter storm that started it all. #energysky #climatesky Register: us06web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

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Switchbox @switch.box · 11/12/2024

📢 Tune in next Thurs to learn about the 'digital twin' simulation that Ithaca is using to equitably electrify their entire building stock. You'll get to meet the first-of-its kind 'digital twin' and the Cornell researchers behind it's creation! #energysky #climatesky Register: bit.ly/sb-digitaltwin

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