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Rhys Elliott

@superhys.bsky.social
3.9K followers 444 following 511 posts

Head of market analysis at Alinea Analytics. Ex-Newzoo & Nielsen. Analysis in IGN, BBC, Giant Bomb, The Guardian, GameSpot, GIBiz and more. Lives on a canal in the Netherlands, but spends most of the time looking at screens instead. Very Welsh.

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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Wolverine has sold through 1.9M copies (1M in pre-launch digital pre-orders), generating $130M - Alinea estimates Of these revenues, 22.9% were physical. As always, these estimates don’t include unsold retail copies, which publishers often report in their sold-in numbers. Full analysis:
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Wolverine sells 1.9M, despite the online mauling
In three days, Wolverine has generated $130M, passing Death Stranding 2's entire PS5 lifetime revenue. You'd never guess from the discourse, though.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Wardogs has reached 2.2M copies sold on Steam, outpacing Arc Raiders (1.7M on Steam, launch aligned) and Helldivers 2 (1M) Wardogs has also generated over $70M, more revenue than Marathon has generated across ALL PLATFORMS to date. (Alinea Analytics estimates) Full blog post:
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Wardogs had a better Steam launch than Helldivers 2 and Arc Raiders
It’s sold 2.2M copies on Steam, generating $70M in week one. Wardogs has also already converted 11% of its wishlisters. We dive into its early success with Alinea estimates.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Steam has generated $15 BILLION in gross revenue so far this year (Alinea estimates) Valve's functional monopoly on the PC market really is a behemoth, already up 15% on the same period last year. This year will almost certainly end well above $20 billion for the first time. Article:
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Steam has already generated $15B in gross revenue this year
We look at the top-contributing new 2026 games, then evaluate whether or not mid-budget games are truly capturing Steam's middle class.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Mortal Shell 2 passed half-a-million copies sold over the weekend. It's also the best non-FromSoftware soulslike I've played! Write-up on the free Substack, including new data on How to Fish, Modern Warfare 4, and Helldivers 2 (fish, CoD, and diving...) alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/mortal-she...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Mortal Shell 2 passed half-a-million sold in its first weekend
The new soulslike has had a banging start, pushed by an awesome demo. Plus, some estimates on the new Call of Duty, ANOTHER new friendslop hit, and Helldivers 2.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Mortal Shell 2 passed half-a-million copies sold over the weekend. It's also the best non-FromSoftware soulslike I've played! Write-up on the free Substack, including new data on How to Fish, Modern Warfare 4, and Helldivers 2 (fish, CoD, and diving...) alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/mortal-she...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Mortal Shell 2 passed half-a-million sold in its first weekend
The new soulslike has had a banging start, pushed by an awesome demo. Plus, some estimates on the new Call of Duty, ANOTHER new friendslop hit, and Helldivers 2.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
In the week since Phantom Blade Zero pre-orders went live, it's sold 300K copies on Steam and generated $14.5M in revenue, with 10 weeks left until launch. It also just passed 1.6M Steam wishlists, comfortably the most of any 2026 game. It's almost certainly going to be a hit.
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Phantom Blade Zero is on track for a hit launch
The China-made, Sony-backed action game is already at 300K copies pre-sold on Steam with over two months to go. This is a big deal, if the game is as awesome as it looks.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Here's this gen’s top remakes by copies sold across PlayStation, Steam, and Xbox (Alinea Analytics estimates). We also cover why the hell there are so many bloody remakes these days. Big write-up: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/this-gens-...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
This gen’s top remakes & remasters by copies sold
Alinea estimates across PlayStation, Xbox, and Steam. Plus, why remakes keep getting more important, and why the AAA industry is in its current bind.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Palworld has sold over 30M copies, generating $700M! (Alinea Analytics estimates) Obviously, that makes Palworld one of the biggest new gaming IPs ever, and about 86% of the copies sold come via Steam. Big deep dive this way: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/palworld-1...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Palworld 1.0 pushes the hit over 30M copies sold
Plus, we answer the question: is console gaming doomed?
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Here's our estimates for the top-grossing Steam games released this year. Full analysis with a bunch of data: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/steam-is-h...
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Steam is having another record year for revenue. In the first half of 2026, games on Steam generated $11.1B in gross revenue, the platform’s highest-ever half-year. That’s up 14.5% on H1 2025, and up 8% even on the holiday-heavy H2 2025. Analysis: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/steam-is-h...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Steam is having another record year for revenue
Steam has generated $11B in the first half of 2026 alone, the platform’s biggest-ever six months, as per our estimates. Here’s the numbers and some of the games driving them.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Fields of Mistria is rad. Some estimates: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/two-summer...
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced is on course to be a much-needed hit for Ubisoft. Resynced looks poised for a HEARTY PC showing, already clearing 300K copies sold on Steam ahead of launch, worth almost $14M in gross revenue. Analysis: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/two-summer...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Two summer games due to make a BIG splash
An Assassin’s Creed remake and an early-access farming sim are both shaping up for solid summer success.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Fields of Mistria is rad. Some estimates: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/two-summer...
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
PlayStation's top games by copies sold in 2026, including some VERY topical physical game splits (Alinea estimates) open.substack.com/pub/alineaan...
open.substack.com
2026’s top PlayStation games by copies sold, including physical splits
It’s all blockbusters all the time, and perhaps a bit more data on PlayStation’s rationale for the death of the disc. Let's look at Alinea's estimates for 2026 copies sold (so far).
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
This year's top games by copies sold so far (Alinea Analytics estimates) open.substack.com/pub/alineaan...
open.substack.com
2026’s top games by copies sold (so far)
We dig into our estimates for H1 2026’s top games across Steam, Xbox, and PlayStation. Spoiler: the #1 game came out three weeks ago, but there’s more to it… Also, Sony is done with dis
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
This year's top games by copies sold so far (Alinea Analytics estimates) open.substack.com/pub/alineaan...
open.substack.com
2026’s top games by copies sold (so far)
We dig into our estimates for H1 2026’s top games across Steam, Xbox, and PlayStation. Spoiler: the #1 game came out three weeks ago, but there’s more to it… Also, Sony is done with dis
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
As H1 comes to a close, here's my GOTY list so far: 1. Mina the Hollower 2. Slay the Spire 2 (Early Access) 3. Mewgenics 4. 007 First Light 5. Forza Horizon 6 6. Marathon 7. Resident Evil Requiem 8. Saros 9. Pokémon Pokopia 10 Vampire Crawlers I can't bloody believe we're only halfway through.
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Jordan Middler @jordanmiddler.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Top 10 Aura Moments
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
We got the Bungie layoff news on the same day GTA 6 preorders opened. What a coincidence!
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
007 First Light has sold 2.2M+ copies across platforms ( Alinea estimates), mostly via PS5. It's at $150M in gross revenue. What a result for an absolutely fantastic game. Likely going to have a long tail, too, this one. More data on Substack: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/mays-top-p...
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Dropped some Lego Batman sales estimates today (Alinea Analytics) Lots more data and analysis on the new free Substack: open.substack.com/pub/alineaan...
open.substack.com
Lego Batman: 1.2M sold in a week
Legacy of the Dark Knight has had a quiet but solid debut. We swoop into platform splits, audience composition, review sentiment, and why the release timing wasn't quite the mistake it seems.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Forza Horizon 6 has sold almost 5M copies already! (Alinea estimates) Its gross revenue across platforms now exceeds $325M, with around 1.7M players opting for the premium advanced-access edition (including the Game Pass add-on). Free Substack write-up: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/forza-hori...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Forza Horizon 6 has already sold almost 5M copies
Forza Horizon 6 is a certified HIT. We use Alinea Analytics' Steam and Xbox estimates to dig into the launch, Game Pass, the cross-platform split, and what comes next.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Roguelikes have generated almost $500M on Steam so far this year, as per our estimates. And it turns out the 2026 roguelike DLC is selling pretty damn good, too! New free Substack: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/steam-dlc-...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Steam DLC data: High attach rates for 2026 roguelike DLC
Roguelike fans are OBSESSED, so it's no surprise we're happy to fork out for DLC (it helps that the DLC is cheap!) Keep reading to learn which four 2026 roguelike DLCs sold over 100K copies on Steam.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Roguelikes have generated almost $500M on Steam so far this year, as per our estimates. And it turns out the 2026 roguelike DLC is selling pretty damn good, too! New free Substack: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/steam-dlc-...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Steam DLC data: High attach rates for 2026 roguelike DLC
Roguelike fans are OBSESSED, so it's no surprise we're happy to fork out for DLC (it helps that the DLC is cheap!) Keep reading to learn which four 2026 roguelike DLCs sold over 100K copies on Steam.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Published some of our SAROS estimates! open.substack.com/pub/alineaan...
open.substack.com
Saros sells 300K+ in its first two weeks
Sony's first big 2026 exclusive is here. Housemarque's spiritual follow-up to Returnal has had a slow but interesting start. Let's see what the Alinea estimates say about Saros. Also, a peek at Forza.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Saros is like Returnal x Control, with a bit of Infamous Second Son thrown in. It's fucking awesome.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Some new Alinea Analytics estimates: open.substack.com/pub/alineaan...
open.substack.com
Which Xbox games have sold over 100K copies on PlayStation?
There’s a lot of talk about Xbox exclusivity right now. So, we use our estimates to give you an idea of how many copies – and how much revenue – Xbox is shifting on Sony’s platform.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Starfield has sold 140K copies on PS5 (Alinea estimates). Big data deep dive in the new free Substack: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/starfield-...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Starfield has sold 140K copies on PS5
The high-profile port has had a middling start, raising questions about the long-term viability of delayed multiplatform releases and the true cost of exclusivity and subscriptions.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Starfield has sold 140K copies on PS5 (Alinea estimates). Big data deep dive in the new free Substack: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/starfield-...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Starfield has sold 140K copies on PS5
The high-profile port has had a middling start, raising questions about the long-term viability of delayed multiplatform releases and the true cost of exclusivity and subscriptions.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Here's the March top 5 for Steam. Fucking GREAT to see Slay the Spire 2 smashing it. alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/marchs-top...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
March’s top Steam games: Indies, AAA, early access, and revivals
Steam’s ranking by copies sold is as diverse as ever. We dive into March's Alinea estimates for Slay the Spire 2, Crimson Desert, an indie revival and more.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Here's the March top 5 for Steam. Fucking GREAT to see Slay the Spire 2 smashing it. alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/marchs-top...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
March’s top Steam games: Indies, AAA, early access, and revivals
Steam’s ranking by copies sold is as diverse as ever. We dive into March's Alinea estimates for Slay the Spire 2, Crimson Desert, an indie revival and more.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
New Alinea estimates: March 2026's top PlayStation games by copies sold: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/march-2026...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
March 2026’s top PlayStation games
A sports titan keeps momentum at a vital time, Crimson Desert finds a big audience, and Resident Evil Requiem solidifies its successful launch.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
One of the more fascinating data points from Death Stranding 2’s PC launch is the halo effect it triggered on PS5. Noticeably boosted copies sold, even accounting for the 29% discount on PS5 (same discount had far lower spikes previously). More here: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/death-stra...
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
One of the more fascinating data points from Death Stranding 2’s PC launch is the halo effect it triggered on PS5. Noticeably boosted copies sold, even accounting for the 29% discount on PS5 (same discount had far lower spikes previously). More here: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/death-stra...
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
New free newsletter on Death Stranding 2's PC launch: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/death-stra...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Death Stranding 2’s PC port helped DS2 pass 2M copies sold and $150M overall
Death Stranding 2 had a middling start on PS5 when it launched last June, but the recent PC port has boosted the title past a major commercial milestone. Plus, Slay the Spire 2 sells 5M.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Estimates just dropped for Marathon. open.substack.com/pub/alineaan...
open.substack.com
Marathon has sold 1.2M copies across Steam, PS5, and Xbox
Marathon hasn't exactly made the splash Sony and Bungie wanted, even if the game underneath the surface is a masterwork of design. There’s a lot to love about Marathon – and the show ain’t over yet.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Estimates just dropped for Marathon. open.substack.com/pub/alineaan...
open.substack.com
Marathon has sold 1.2M copies across Steam, PS5, and Xbox
Marathon hasn't exactly made the splash Sony and Bungie wanted, even if the game underneath the surface is a masterwork of design. There’s a lot to love about Marathon – and the show ain’t over yet.
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GameSpot @gamespot.com · 17/03/2026
dlvr.it
Xbox Project Helix Could Be A Make-Or-Break Moment For Microsoft
Last week at the Game Developers Conference, Microsoft shared more details about its upcoming console/PC platform, Project Helix, including more information on the high-level technical details and that the platform will begin shipping to developers in 2027. In the wake of the announcements, GameSpot caught up with industry analysts to get their take on Microsoft's plans for Helix and more. Mat Piscatella of Circana told GameSpot that Microsoft targeting a 2027 distribution of alpha Helix devkits to developers likely means the consumer version isn't coming until "at least 2028." Project Helix was announced by new Microsoft Gaming CEO Asha Sharma earlier this month, though a console/PC platform with the name Project Helix has been rumored for more than a decade.Continue Reading at GameSpot
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GameSpot @gamespot.com · 17/03/2026
dlvr.it
Crimson Desert Is Going To Be A Big Deal On Steam, Early Numbers Suggest
After over five years of development, Crimson Desert is just days away from its debut. And if the early numbers from Steam are any indication, Crimson Desert is on course to have a very big launch. According to Alinea Analytics, Crimson Desert is currently tracking even higher than Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 and Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 at the same point in their release cycles. As reported by Alinea, Crimson Desert has sold approximately 400,000 pre-launch copies on Steam, which at $70 per game, would come close to $20 million in revenue three days before its release. By comparison, Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 had $5.2 million in pre-launch sales on Steam three days before its release, while Expedition 33 had only $2.4 million in the same period. However, both Expedition 33 and Deliverance 2 enjoyed sustained success on Steam, with $95.5 million and $101.3 million earned respectively after 120 days. There's no guarantee that Crimson Desert will be able to match those numbers, since it's going to come down to how players receive the game and whether word of mouth will carry it forward to even higher sales. Continue Reading at GameSpot
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Posted about this, using the same examples, last year: I don't agree with the timing emphasis, though. The novelty is just wearing off. Different audiences. alineaanalytics.com/blog/steamps/
alineaanalytics.com
The top-selling PlayStation games on Steam
We asked our audience (that’s you!) about the Alinea estimates you wanted to see most. The clear winner was ‘‘PS5 games on Steam.’’ We’ve got you.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Posted about this, using the same examples, last year: I don't agree with the timing emphasis, though. The novelty is just wearing off. Different audiences. alineaanalytics.com/blog/steamps/
alineaanalytics.com
The top-selling PlayStation games on Steam
We asked our audience (that’s you!) about the Alinea estimates you wanted to see most. The clear winner was ‘‘PS5 games on Steam.’’ We’ve got you.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Alinea estimates show that as of March 4, just six days post-launch, Requiem had sold through 4.3M+ copies across Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox. Our estimates focus on the sales to consumers (no unsold retailer copies) and don’t include Switch or Epic. alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/steam-is-r...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Steam is Resident Evil Requiem’s top platform
Requiem has sold through 4.3M+ copies across Steam, Xbox, and PlayStation, with over half of these coming from Steam.
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Lawrence Sonntag @sirlarr.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Whoa this is awesome! I've been desperate for any kind of externally trackable game pass metrics.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
January had a lot of neat Game Pass additions. Here's how many new players they brought in via the service (Alinea Analytics estimates): alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/game-pass-...
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
We looked at our data on January's PS Plus monthly games, as well as the three headline Game Catalog games: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/how-did-ja...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
How did January’s PlayStation Plus games do?
Today, we're looking at our PS Plus player numbers for January’s monthly games and the three major additions to the Game Catalog. Also, some exciting new news!
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
We looked at our data on January's PS Plus monthly games, as well as the three headline Game Catalog games: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/how-did-ja...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
How did January’s PlayStation Plus games do?
Today, we're looking at our PS Plus player numbers for January’s monthly games and the three major additions to the Game Catalog. Also, some exciting new news!
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Mewgenics has sold 1M copies (Alinea estimates). And over a fifth of players have already played for over 20 hours (including me!) Absolutely phenomenal game. Early GOTY contender for me. Big deep dive on the free Tuesday Substack: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/mewgenics-...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Mewgenics pounces to 1M sold
Mewgenics launched on Thursday, and it’s blown up. It’s difficult, it’s uncompromising, a little risqué (okay, a lot risqué), and it’s bloody incredible. Let’s look at the Alinea estimates.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Mewgenics has sold 1M copies (Alinea estimates). And over a fifth of players have already played for over 20 hours (including me!) Absolutely phenomenal game. Early GOTY contender for me. Big deep dive on the free Tuesday Substack: alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/mewgenics-...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
Mewgenics pounces to 1M sold
Mewgenics launched on Thursday, and it’s blown up. It’s difficult, it’s uncompromising, a little risqué (okay, a lot risqué), and it’s bloody incredible. Let’s look at the Alinea estimates.
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Rhys Elliott @superhys.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
New free Substack post on the top 2026 Steam games (confirmed release dates) by wishlisht balance on Steam (Alinea estimates). Also includes data on Steam pre-sales for Forza Horizon 6 (220K+ sold) and RE9 (250K+) alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/the-top-20...
alineaanalytics.substack.com
The top 2026 games by Steam wishlists
We look at our 2026 wishlist data, including pre-launch Steam revenue and copies sold for Forza Horizon 6 and Resident Evil 9. We also answer the question ''How can I track wishlist conversion?''
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