sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Iran not exporting anything is certainly not sustainable so the “ fear premium” in ffa is going to resolve one way or another, and I would think pretty soon! 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 02/10/2026suezmax is going crazy for last couple of days! 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 02/10/2026I have lost more money in buying puts “capping the downside” vs being short a stock/call! 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 01/10/2026That’s right. I need a reminder every once a while how bad I am at predicting Lol 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 01/10/2026There is no political will for that. Politicians are always managing the next election! Hope market forces does its magic but they are very manipulated as well so I am not holding my breath!! 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 30/09/2026stock market down 80% but people have employment may be good for the society long term. I think China did a great thing by popping real estate bubble and I think US should do that as well to improve family formation and all the other societal problems that come with inflation! 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 30/09/2026I think inflation has done real damage and I know folks who are spending all that they make. I think downturn is going to happen probably soon. But the part I struggle with is home equity which is very high right now. do you think a major downturn can happen with so much of home equity? 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 30/09/2026I guess it’s a well established point the bulls have been making that after the normalization, demand will be strong. It is possible for a bit but supply coming online is quite significant and not going to be a blip as you may expect in demand.. demand growth is short term but supply is not 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 30/09/2026I guess the bulls are betting on geopolitics getting worse. Quite asymmetrical if you think about max pain point and supply that is coming soon. The equity guys I guess are holding tanker stocks for dividends. I don’t see any other reason 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Iran is also suffering economically. I feel it’s closer to max pain point. Some sort of relief should come. Prez also probably want to take a victory lap before the election.. let’s see how it plays out on geopolitical front. 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Out for 300 new construction about 100 is expected to be commissioned in 2027. There are 900 total in the world right now. There is a lot of supply coming but I guess for BWET the question is geopolitical and short term FFAs of a specific route 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Ah I was waiting for one last pump with a new deal with Iran before the mid term elections. I was planning to move from BWET to qqq puts!! I guess we are not getting the last pump lol 011
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 25/09/2026It never got to 80 I think. It got really close at 72! 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Time to short the index? Breadth is really bad! 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 24/09/2026My understanding is that this happened when BWET was $150!! 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 21/09/2026how do you usually leg into a mean reversion trade? would you put 25% of the full size and wait for the change in weather? for example, a trade like bwet, if the trade can potentially double on you, how do you anticipate the turning point? TIA 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 21/09/2026The borrow rate on short bwet is more than 100%. My prime exercised my short call position from last week over the weekend. It will be interesting to see how it behaves if prez comes up with another (temp) deal with Iran before election! 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 21/09/2026bull crowd is hoping for a demand increase when situation normalizes.... x.com/LSREnergy/st...x.comLakshmi Sreekumar (@LSREnergy) on XIf war continues, rates remain strong on high risk. If war ends, rates remain strong on competition from higher volumes. Overall lower availability for at least ~2y. The bear case is if we go into a g... 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 17/09/2026What is the instrument of choice? Refiners or producers? 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 14/09/2026The worst I feel is the emails and text messages. People think those are private but tech companies are reading it. when I started in banking 20 years ago, my boss said don't write anything on email which you will be embarrassed to have published on front page of WSJ! I think it was a great advice 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 28/07/2026Do you short index? Or do you prefer just individual names? I am thinking of financials in general to add to the short list. 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Oh that’s horrible! Sorry you had to go through that! 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 23/07/2026which one is the favorite to express this view? AMD? 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 23/07/2026Welcome back. CRWV and DELL has come back up again. Waiting for the earning season/ August opex. I think we can go again after that! 030
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 10/07/2026take care sparty! hope to see you soon here... 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 09/07/2026yeah it's become harder to read monthly OI due to 0dte. Thanks 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 09/07/2026What do you think of July opex next week? A non event or a bit of bounce and selling intensifies after opex? 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 01/07/2026There are many, whole bunch but I think CRWV is the one where momentum is completely broken. 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 24/04/2026I remember 2008 episode so clearly. I was new to the industry. I was at Bear Stearns and had recently moved to JPM commod that summer. wild times! 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 24/04/2026what is the instrument of the choice here? Sep/oct puts? or short dated? 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 16/04/2026I think the tax refunds due to BBB this year is the last and final stimulus which probably runs out by this summer. Then the bear market is what my thesis is right now unless something new comes up. 020
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 23/02/2026Totally agree. I saw Fintwit going crazy on Citrini article this weekend which claims negative impact on Indian IT industry. to me, AI is a bigger risk for SF based expensive software engineers. Thanks 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 23/02/2026What do you think about India's IT industry? winner or loser due to AI resources. If they lose I think it is a severe risk for their economy too. 010
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 21/02/2026I have been recently trying (successfully) the same mindset for stocks. I shorted the latest Jan pop in RKLB, ASTS and few other momo names but only when their market cap went almost $30B. They are down 30% in few weeks. I think anything less than $5b in this market is untouchable to short! 000
sukcap.bsky.social @sukcap.bsky.social · 12/10/2025do you think this crypto event will have impact on stocks, especially the shitcos on Monday? I tend to believe the investor base of shitcos are similar/same! 010
