James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Agreed - took a deep dive into BYD recently and overall the glass looks more half full than half empty: www.stromepartners.com/energized-24stromepartners.comThe Battery Revolution Part 2: Mobile Batteries (EVs) - The Rise, Fall and Redemption of BYD — Strome PartnersThe global EV revolution is inevitable, but is only just getting started. Analysis of BYD's growth strategy to pivot from domestic champion to global EV behemoth. 000 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 02/10/2026"Unable to stop" is an understatement - maybe more accurate would be "Helping to accelerate"? 000 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 02/10/2026No doubt, the next crude price crash is only a matter of time. If refining capacity remains short, impact on diesel & gasoline markets may take longer to filter through, but demand destruction is still coming either way and will likely prove irreversible. 010 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 02/10/2026It's encouraging, great to see the acceleration, although it's taken a while and tbf 25% share is not exceptional vs several other markets. But most likely it'll rise very fast towards & beyond 50%. Will be interesting to see if e-vans and e-trucks start taking off in the Aus market too? 000 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Great intro thread - can't wait to check out this beautiful area in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada 010 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 02/10/2026My mum had two hip replacements, then a knee replacement, then a second knee replacement - at that point I decided it was time to introduce her to the concept of Trigger's Broom 010 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 01/10/2026For sure. Any discount rate prob has some element of discretion / subjectivity, but that doesn't invalidate the exercise. We can't know the future, we can only take our best guess with a healthy awareness of our assumptions, and find out later if we were more right than wrong...! 020 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Maybe the real story here is that mortgage lenders are starting to think / act more seriously about helping to fund energy efficiency home retrofits that are otherwise very challenging for people to fund but can still make long-term sense 110 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Good question - instinctively would say the latter but willing to be corrected! 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Yep that would go in the mix to reinforce the case. Obvs it needs various assumptions eg on future energy prices (feeding into avoided costs), future mtge refinancings & rates, etc etc. But even so, some estimate of the overall value could help underpin the up-front decision to borrow & invest? 010 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 01/10/2026NPV would be helpful to show how it all makes sense overall, not just month to month. Should be fairly easy to calculate, with house price & value gain, mtge size/term/rate. Not nitpicking here - point is to make the economic case as clear and robust as possible as a template for others to follow! 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Thanks. Monthly net €90 gain makes sense, but NPV also useful? (IRR not viable as 100% debt funded). Value driven by 1) lower mtge int rate & 2) avoided energy costs. So depends on mtge size + future energy price assumptions. With investment back-ended, I'm guessing 25-yr NPV maybe in €15-25k range? 120 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Thanks for this nice explainer series Adrian. Just to make sure I understand your financial calcs correctly. Sounds like what you're saying is you borrowed the €37k capex to fund it. Cost: €160/mo (€1,920/pa) - is that interest only or principal + interest repayment and what is the loan term? 120 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Nice, the strawberry theory of electricity: eat delicious fruit when it's in season, consume power when it's cheap and plentiful. Automated smart tariff being like having the strawberries delivered straight to your door for free (or even being paid to eat them). 340 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Fantastic @adrianhiel.bsky.social - showing the way forward. Interesting to see that insulation made up around half of the total capex. 121 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Full detail in the Energized analysis – free to read & subscribe via link above Full credit & thanks to @electric-nick.bsky.social & @leraffl.bsky.social for their outstanding charts used there to illustrate key dynamics. Be sure to follow them if you're not already! Not investment advice. ENDS 010 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026However, several key risks will need careful monitoring to validate the thesis, e.g. international price & margin pressure, plus FX, tariff & share dilution exposure. Operating & net margins over 4Q26 & 1Q27 in particular will also help to clarify the real level of progress. 17/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026The recent share price weakness, falling to a forward P/E of ~13x and <6x EV/EBITDA, offers a potentially opportune long-term entry point as the next phase of growth starts to ramp up, which may be reflected in better Q3 and Q4 numbers 16/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Latest data suggests capacity investments & strategic pivot are starting to bear fruit: BYD’s net margin recovered to 4.2% in 2Q26 from its 2.7% low in 1Q26 After yoy sales declined for 8 months to Apr 2026, intl growth pushed August sales up 17.8% yoy to 440,293, a 4th straight monthly high 15/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Plus, of course, BYD is also much more than just a car story: it includes buses, trucks and fast-charging infrastructure, while as the world's #2 battery maker it offers exposure to rapid growth in stationary battery energy storage systems (BESS) 14/x 110 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026(2) Scaling up international manufacturing capacity to expand tariff-resistant access to key global markets (3) More than doubling its already industry-leading export fleet from 8 to 18 roll-on/roll-off ships, reaching total export capacity of 130,000 cars by 2029 13/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Three crucial factors will underpin BYD’s ability to deliver at global scale and uphold profit margins: (1) Completion of its Blade 2.0 battery retooling to ramp up production of the next generation of ultra-fast charging, much longer-range models 12/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026That’s why its sales volumes and revenues are already shifting decisively from domestic to more profitable international markets and from PHEVs to BEVs. Fast-adopting developing markets without legacy incumbent manufacturers looks like especially fertile ground. 11/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026BYD has big ambitions to win the race for international growth markets - and with some justification. It can leverage the same attributes that drove its domestic success: - manufacturing scale - battery leadership - cost competitiveness - distribution network. 10/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026BYD had a particularly weak start to 2026. But this was likely a brief interlude on its longer journey of growth from domestic powerhouse to full global behemoth. Resilient domestic BEV demand provides the foundation while rapid international adoption offers the big growth potential. 9/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Even so, it’s still very early days. The real opportunity for EV OEMs lies ahead. NEVs account for barely 5% of vehicles on the road today & <10% market share in many countries. Adoption will accelerate over the next decade then eventually taper off. Full fleet transition will take beyond 2050. 8/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026As these effects play out, we project worldwide NEV sales to double from 20.7m (25% share) in 2025 to ~40m (~50% share) by 2030, dominated by BEV rather than PHEV. Further out is harder to assess, but if that first milestone is reached, then ~65m (~80% share) by 2035 looks plausible. 7/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026BYD and its peers are redefining driving as a high-tech, AI-enhanced, increasingly autonomous experience supported by an expanding fast-charging ecosystem. The stage is set to accelerate the inevitable global shift in road transport from inefficient combustion to digitalised electrification. 6/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026But commodity price insulation is far from the only compelling factor driving adoption curves esp for BEVs: see also fast-improving consumer economics, variety of models on offer, superior driver experience, lower maintenance burdens, expanding charging infrastructure, rise of flash-charging… 5/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Painfully high gasoline & diesel prices driven by intractable conflicts (forever wars?) in Middle East & Rus-Ukr are reinforcing the 1/3 drop in global ICE sales since their 2017 peak & pushing NEV sales past tipping points in many markets, not least China (ICE sales down 40% since March). 4/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Yes, the Chinese market is evolving and maturing and the price war is fiercely competitive, but the death of BEVs in China seems to have been greatly exaggerated: the real crash is in petrol/diesel (ICE) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales. 3/x 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Summary verdict: the outlook for BYD remains robust, and as an investor it looks one of the best ways to deploy capital into the transport electrification megatrend over the years to come, but it’s clearly not without its risks 2/x 110 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Why I doubled down on BYD, despite being -20% YTD As a long-term energy transformation investor, road transport electrification is a key portfolio theme. We are still in the early stages of a global EV megatrend. So it was time for a deep-dive on whether BYD is a solid long-term investment... 1/xstromepartners.comThe Battery Revolution Part 2: Mobile Batteries (EVs) - The Rise, Fall and Redemption of BYD — Strome PartnersThe global EV revolution is inevitable, but is only just getting started. Analysis of BYD's growth strategy to pivot from domestic champion to global EV behemoth. 120 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 12/08/2026Hi Tom, to be clear, not saying renewables investment has peaked (far from it), but that at a global level renewables will cede relative *share* of energy investment to electrification, grids and battery storage (of course lots of variation at national/regional levels too) 010 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 12/08/2026This is just the start. You ain't seen nothing yet. 110 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 11/08/2026Great quote and a point that people often seem to miss when it comes to energy system change 100 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 10/08/2026Milk-source heat pump with 2 year payback was not on my bingo card, impressive 000 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 10/08/2026Excellent analysis. I recall @nafeez.bsky.social also did a very solid debunking of Fressoz in his Age of Transformation series a few months back. 231 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 06/08/2026Haha, yes. The sharp drop in ICE sales is clearly the key driver of China's car market slump. NEVs are holding up relatively much better, now nearly 2/3 of total sales. Their attractiveness vs ICE will only increase. OEM competition is intense, but export markets for NEVs are also growing fast. 010 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 05/08/2026Good to see. Eyeballing the chart, it looks like more or less the first time that pure BEV sales overtake petrol car sales in UK. The future is accelerating... 220 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 05/08/2026Feels a bit counterintuitive that the pilgrimage to Virgen de las Nieves is in high summer, when the snow is at its minimum (or even non-existent?). Or was there still plenty of snow in the high Sierra in August in bygone days? 110 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 05/08/2026Outstanding episode - two leading energy systems thinkers go head to head to join all the dots across energy, markets, geopolitics, some essential insights Top quote from Currie in there: "Crude is the noise, products are the signal" Keep up the great work, TGS 000 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 05/08/2026CATL's market dominance and the overall growth of both EV and stationary storage batter markets is why they are top holding in my long-term Energy Transformation investment portfolio www.stromepartners.com/energized-22stromepartners.comBatteries will change energy for good - and the revolution is just getting started — Strome PartnersBatteries will change energy for good - and the revolution is just getting started. Analysis of the role and growth of stationary energy storage and of CATL's prospects as the industry's leading suppl... 032 0
James Chance @stromepartners.bsky.social · 05/08/2026Thank you :) Yes this was my (basic) impression - an even bigger focus going forward on further buildout of grids & flexibility capacity to keep the whole system as efficient as possible. I guess it's maybe more important to look at actual investment & buildout rates rather than official targets... 010 0
