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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 01/10/2026

Texas Senate Money Pit Data Point: Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC's September spending amounts to ~ 1/3 of the cash on hand war chest (~$416 million) that MAGA Inc. reported at the end of August. (Plus MAGA Inc. itself spent $20 million on TX-SEN in September)

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 23/09/2026

The Republican Party has lost its advantage on several key issues in the eyes of voters, including immigration: 41% say the Democratic Party would do better while 38% say Republicans. In February 2024, it was 42% for Republicans and 30% for Democrats.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 23/09/2026

More than a year and a half into Trump's return to office, a solid majority of voters (59%) continue to disapprove of the president's performance in office while 39% approve. Overall disapproval has remained the same since May but the intensity of that disapproval has increased:

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 23/09/2026

President Trump told people earlier this month to pretend he’s on the ballot. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out today shows voters are already doing that… …just maybe not in the way he is hoping. More: www.npr.org/2026/09/23/n...

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 18/09/2026

Aside from the volume of money flowing into these races, it's notable where these ad reservations signal Republicans need the most help. Just look at the serious cash going to House races + states that supported Trump by 10-15+ point margins in 2024!

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 18/09/2026

According to an NPR analysis of AdImpact data, Republican candidates and groups have pledged to spend more than $557 million to Democrats' $343 million in the nine most competitive Senate races this fall. Republican reservations outpace Democrats in all but one of those.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 11/09/2026

Trump is quadrupling down on the arena being full to the rafters as you can clearly see thousand of empty seats with your own eyes.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 11/09/2026

As Donald Trump Jr. is speaking, before VP Vance and President Trump close out the RNC midterm convention, you can see the arena is a little emptier than it was last night.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 10/09/2026

Here’s a meta video of some of the large groups of empty seats you can see as President Trump is saying there aren’t any empty seats in the arena.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 10/09/2026

We are one UFC segment and Lee Greenwood performance before President Trump is set to speak at the RNC event and this is what the American Airlines arena looks like from the press box. The upper level is mostly empty, with pockets of empty seats interspersed elsewhere, too.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 10/09/2026

Reaction inside the RNC hall to the surprise Fetterman video was… muted.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 09/09/2026

Hello from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, where an unprecedented Republican National Committee midterm convention — dubbed “Trump-a-palooza” by supportive members — will soon get underway. For both parties, the final weeks of 2026 will be (mostly) all about Trump. More on @npr.org soon.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 06/09/2026

Good thing you can’t see what I look like on the radio because I am just going to be a giant pile of sweat covering the RNC midterm convention for you on NPR this week…

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 18/08/2026

In a move that is incredibly on brand for me, I have acquired (and approve of) the Grillo’s Pickle Liquid IV packets.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 12/08/2026

So to recap, the WI Gov Dem primary prediction markets: A) failed to capture the closeness of the final result B) failed to capture movement towards the winner C) saw wild swings related to topline vote changes instead of the bigger picture trajectory election analysts could see

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 23/07/2026

New AARP bipartisan poll of Georgia likely voters #gapol Jon Ossoff up over Mike Collins outside margin of error in Georgia Senate race Statistically tied governor race between Keisha Lance Bottoms/Rick Jackson More: www.aarp.org/content/dam/...

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 04/07/2026

Happy Fourth from the four(!) Fowlers

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 03/07/2026

Highly recommend documenting the first days with a new little sibling using a toddler-friendly camera. She’s really cooking with some of these.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 25/06/2026

Tired: 2026 midterm coverage Wired (and also tired): 2026 newborn coverage Inspired: Taking *some* of my parental leave between now + Labor Day to hang out with this cool little dude, his excited big sister and my awesome wife. See you on the radio and the campaign trail…. much later!

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 20/06/2026

This week’s @npr.org Politics newsletter: Trump’s Economic Summer Bummer and more view.nl.npr.org?vawpToken=R7...

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 17/06/2026

If you're following the advanced election tracking of prediction markets like Kalshi, the market for Georgia GOP governor nominee flipped to Rick Jackson based on the elite knowledge of... reading public election results that showed him with more votes.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 01/06/2026

"The national Democrats, we can't look to them to come in on a white steed and save the day," Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart told me. "We've got to save our own day here." www.npr.org/2026/05/31/n...

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 30/05/2026

FWIW, I checked the Chartbeat and I'm beginning to think that potentially people like to rage and comment on articles they haven't read?!?

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 30/05/2026

From this week’s @npr.org politics newsletter: What the Texas Senate runoffs say about the state of things, why Democrats feel optimistic and how the best way to think about red state races is a game of tug-of-war where Trump voters likely stay home. Subscribe: click.nl.npr.org?qs=ABB7InYiO...

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 30/05/2026

Just the other day I got a multi-paragraph message from someone who said I was “personally helping erase” efforts by Trump and others to overturn the 2020 election… …because a 3:45 segment on Up First about the Texas Senate runoff and 2026 didn’t spend 5 minutes talking about Paxton back then. 🤔

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 20/05/2026

Here's a mostly-final breakdown of who pulled what party/nonpartisan ballot by vote type in Georgia Republicans were still outvoted by ~10k votes on Election Day. D enthusiasm advantage continues... but we'll see how that fares for supreme court races.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 16/05/2026

👀👀👀 These aren't the *final final* Georgia early voting numbers but after an expected mammoth final day... Democrats have a nearly 15% advantage (56.6% - 41.9%) over Republicans. The 2026 midterm trend of D enthusiasm + GOP apathy continues apace, for now. #gapol

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 15/05/2026

Four of my bellwether counties that Trump won in 2024 that have varying degrees of D early vote dominance that are worth watching Tuesday / say a lot for November Fayette in the metro ATL suburbs Lowndes in South Georgia Houston in middle Georgia Washington in East Georgia

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 15/05/2026

👀 Democrats in Georgia have a ~100k vote advantage with one more EV day to go before Tuesday's primary. #gapol That's a ~12% margin. (For reference, D's won ~65% of the early vote while winning 63% overall in the landslide Public Service Commission elections upset last November)

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 14/05/2026

With two days left of early voting ahead of Tuesday's Georgia primary + two state supreme court races, a huge surge of Democratic votes reported. (Gov. Brian Kemp announcing a June special session that'll include redistricting for 2028 is likely to juice D turnout even more)

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 13/05/2026

Tuesday's early voting in Georgia saw the most Republicans vote so far... but even more Democrats. Less than a week until Election Day.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 12/05/2026

After Monday, Democrats have extended their early voting advantage over Republicans in Georgia's primary with the highest day so far. If recent EV patterns continue, the total daily turnout (and D-R gap) will rise before final day of voting Friday. #gapol

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 11/05/2026

Good morning from Memphis, where GOP lawmakers split a majority-Black D House seat into 3 Republican-dominated districts last week. I’ll be driving the length of the new TN-09 to talk with folks about the map and what representation means to them in this moment in politics.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 10/05/2026

After the last Saturday of early voting, Democrats still have a sizable advantage in Georgia's primary. Sunday data will be weird because many counties don't usually offer EV then, and other large ones aren't today because of Mother's Day. #gapol

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 09/05/2026

Highest day of in-person early voting turnout so far in Georgia by a fair bit, and Democrats extend their advantage after a one day GOP bump. #gapol

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 08/05/2026

Also, was super easy to early vote this evening, in and out with no line or stress!

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 08/05/2026

Thursday is the first narrow Republican EV advantage in Georgia's primary as of 7:30 p.m. update. Democrats still account for ~53% of the overall vote. #gapol

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 07/05/2026

A belated post, but still tracking more Democrats than Republicans early voting in Georgia's primary. There's the nonpartisan state Supreme Court seats that are worth watching, but I'm starting to look at regional trends and what it could mean for governor/Senate primaries.👀

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 06/05/2026

With two weeks until the primary, Democrats continue to outvote Republicans in Georgia during early voting, accounting for ~55% of the ballots cast. #gapol

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 05/05/2026

NEW: The Justice Department is seeking personal info about a broad range of 2020 election workers in Fulton County, Ga. Asks for "residential and email addresses" and "personal telephone number(s)" via subpoena. The county is trying to stop it. www.documentcloud.org/documents/28...

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 05/05/2026

Democrats continue to widen the turnout gap in Georgia heading into another week of early voting.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 04/05/2026

After the first full 7 days of Georgia early voting, Democrats have an ~11 point advantage over Republicans, compared to Republicans leading by ~16 at the same point in 2022. Still two weeks of EV (and Election Day!) to go…

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 03/05/2026

At the end of the first week of early voting, Democrats continue to outvote Republicans in Georgia’s May 19 primary. There continues to be a notable shift from prior election cycles. #gapol

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 02/05/2026

Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart told me when she took over three years ago the vibe of the party was "depressed." Now? "We've come a long ways... We have good candidates. We've got the organizational structure to get the job done."

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 02/05/2026

I’m at the Iowa Democratic Party’s 1st District Convention today in Iowa City. The party is positioning itself to be Dems In Array with its first coordinated campaign since 2020 as they look to flip the Senate, Governor and multiple House races.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 02/05/2026

Democrats still continue to outvote Republicans in Georgia during in-person early voting. Given this week’s redistricting ruling and the two state Supreme Court seats on the ballot D’s are targeting, we could very well see Democrats continue to do well in lower-turnout races.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 01/05/2026

Hello from the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition’s Spring kickoff, featuring Ted Cruz, Iowa GOP’s candidates for governor and a sold out crowd of people who probably agree with me that the state is super important in the midterms.

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 01/05/2026

Another day, another "more Democrats than Republicans early voted in Georgia's primary" data point. #gapol

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stephen fowler @stphnfwlr.com · 30/04/2026

👀👀 For Georgia’s May 19 primary, Democrats continue to outpace Republicans after the third day of in person early voting (and overall) Still 2.5 weeks of EV to go, but a thing to watch, especially with two nonpartisan state Supreme Court seats on the ballot. #gapol

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