iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

On elasticity: there will be more spending on services (where productivity gains are difficult or ~impossible). So more hours worked and/or higher service wages. Which and how much seems mysterious to me.

010

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 14h

“what used to be common sense: as goods become less costly to produce, their prices ought to fall.“

121

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 18h

Also, this. Sheesh. PLUS those taxes have been deferred for years or even many decades. You're paying the taxes in super-cheap 2026 $s. I'm like, "GOI." (I do prefer interest-only mortgages though there's a significant rate penalty. Didn't go for it on my last mortgage.)

110

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 18h

If you need/want cash for spending, Save on capital gains taxes today, borrow instead, and pay interest on the loan until you die? I dunno. How will the NPV play out? In big diverse portfolios instead, just sell assets that haven’t appreciated much or even gone down?

110

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 21h

There are lots of ways for the very rich to avoid capital gains taxes. Borrowing against assets is small potatoes at best. Here's one famous and !!!! example: share.google/aimode/g31dA...

111

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 21h

I’ve long suspected that this was true, and indeed: “‘buy, borrow, die’ is not a dominant tax avoidance strategy for the rich” repository.law.umich.edu/law_econ_cur... “The Role of Unrealized Gains and Borrowing in the Taxation of the Rich”

010

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Makes sense. Surprising how few understand that sectoral accounting.

020

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

So assuming that households, non-financial firms, and government liabilities are ~all payable to financial sector & ROW?

110

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Got accounting handy? Always curious about what cross debts get netted out in these multi sector analyses.

120

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Likewise on liberal currents but I’ll be more direct: that is a terribly-reasoned article in at least three different ways. Sorry, I don’t have time to write about them.

030

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

There is definitely nothing in the Constitution about states having to provide or operate the forum and mechanisms for parties to choose their candidates.

010

Reposted by Steve Roth

Steve Randy Waldman @interfluidity.com · 29/09/2026

The House of Representatives should be elected by proportional representation. The President and Senate by approval voting. There should be no formal primary system, parties should be allowed to choose their nominees as they see fit.

2144

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This is eye-popping. Details a dozen donations to Trump's $400M MAGA "campaign" fund over which he claims complete control. Bald-faced Pay To Play deals. Bribery. Corruption. popular.info/p/how-maga-i...

popular.info

How MAGA Inc. raised so much money

Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump, who is constitutionally prohibited from running for president again, has raised over $400 million through his super PAC, MAGA Inc.

43427

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

In real dollar terms, deflation (a decline in the price level) transfers wealth from debtors to wealthier creditors. So it’s not all a rosy picture.

100

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

@creatinganewworld.bsky.social V interested in checking out the alternative. But wd really like to just browse some before account creation. ?? Thx.

000

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Abstruse economic abstractions derived from dimensionless S/D diagrams (intentionally?) can’t grasp that simple story.

000

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The minimum-wage effect — at least the most obvious part — is really easy to understand. High MW means more HH income, and (hence) more HH spending. So firms spend more on labor and get move revenues. It’s NOT complicated, and it’s v well documented, empirically. /1

120

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Something changed in the 90s. I blame the commodities futures modernization act. 😛

020

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Not just ADHD. As someone who enjoys and is pretty good at sustained focused attention to detail stuff, I totally agree that specifying the task for others to do is often/frequently more “labor” than just doing it.

050

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

What are the dotted versus solid lines? Thanks.

100

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Well… He didn’t show them that. Quite the contrary.

070

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

A Turing test is about judging based on observed behavior/speech. We can't observe Hal's (or another humans') internal experience. 🙄

000

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/09/27/o... "I would like to propose a better Turing test than Turing’s: Can a machine experience social anxiety? Can it lie awake at 4 in the morning replaying the stupid thing it said at dinner?" This is not a Turing test! 1/

100

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Thanks! Why was I not following him? Fixed.

000

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Don't just take my word for it. "we show that the propensity to spend out of wealth has declined over the past 20 years, and that this decline can be well-explained by changes in the distribution of wealth." www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

federalreserve.gov

Wealth Heterogeneity and Consumer Spending

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

020

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Graph and data: fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Z31E And here's another graph explaining: Velocity of Wealth. Top 20% spend ~6% of their wealth each year. Bottom 80% spend more like 25% Do the arithmetic: less concentrated wealth means more spending. Which causes production. Which creates wealth.

120

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Rich people just sit on their wealth like Smaug the Dragon, don't turn it over in spend which causes production which creates more wealth... Updating this year-old post with recent Velocity of Wealth numbers. Using somewhat different measures but the story’s the same. Graph/data link in reply. ⬇️

2129

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Red counties are only maintaining population growth due to immigrants flooding in, from: 1. Other countries (until recently), and 2. Bluer places (60% from Blue or competitive counties). Not a Red-happy electoral picture… shorturl.at/8iFuS (I was able to read this w/ my unpaid login account.)

030

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

This is wild, new from @economist.com. Link below. Republican counties have (increasingly) higher birth rates than Dem counties. But they also have (increasingly) higher mortality rates. So Red counties’ “natural” population growth has gone negative since 2019. So... 1/

142

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

!!! Link to source, graph creator please! URL or it never happened.

000

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

(NOT blind to the reality, vs the aspiration, of that religion and scripture. But the aspiration has really mattered, across the world and across centuries.)

000

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Dang, I wish I could read this. Is it worth eight dollars to subscribe for a month? Does it give actual numbers? Thanks.

000

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

In its blindness, that line epitomizes the core conflict at the heart of classical liberalism: between property rights and human rights. Citizens United epitomizes the conclusion that has been delivered unto us.

1171

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Republicans and 2024 Trump voters here don't look anything like Real Americans to me... www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-25...

000

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Likewise us lifetime liberals. Ingested America's Civic Religion (and scripture) with my mother's milk. "Fourscore and seven years ago..."

120

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

That's not deflation. Falling CPI is disinflation. (Not just a quibble!)

100

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

I'm suggesting econ uncertainty (currently: chaos) is the driver. ("May you live in interesting times." ?)

010

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Full-throated, unapolagetic, New Deal-style economic populism FTW. It won FDR four terms, resoundingly every time. Dems ever since JFK's massive tax cuts for the rich (LBJ excepted!) have been weak-kneed collaborators (at best) in Right-wing economic messaging ever since.

000

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

My graph shows monthly average of daily ECU btw.

110

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Yeah, sure, I've just been looking for an explanation/understanding that doesn't involve a bunch of "Discourse." 🙄 Ppl really don't like econ uncertainty (esp inflation)? And they don't recover from it fast (as w inflation)? *Just* recovering from covid, then…Trump. Then tarrifs. Then Iran...

110

Steve Roth @steveroth.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

News-based: www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.h...

110