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Steven Dabdoub

@stevendabdoub.bsky.social
70 followers 60 following 724 posts

⚽ Analysis and Methodology Formerly: Real Madrid, Inter Miami, Dinamo Tbilisi, La Liga, CONCACAF

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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Over the past few months, @skillcorner.bsky.social rn have been releasing some absolutely top-quality content for the football analytics community that may have gone a little under the radar, but can be incredibly beneficial to those working in or aspiring to work in football analytics.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
After the 2–1 win vs Parma today, Fàbregas referenced Arsenal as an inspiration for his Como team, specifically mentioning goals from set-pieces and defenders. Based on that, I used Twelve Football’s Earpiece to take a look at how similar the two teams might just be, 🧵
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Not the first time I have written about this, and probably won't be the last! But it is always fascinating to see and explore how a country's culture can influence the way it plays football. www.nytimes.com/athletic/748...
nytimes.com
Spain’s collectivism, England’s hero worship and how a nation’s societal norms can shape its football
How much is footballing success determined by a country's culture? The Athletic takes a look...
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
The 2026 World Cup brought with it many talking points. VAR + Refereeing AI + Technology Commercialization + Politics Tactical Trends Spain’s Methodology I broke down what the tournament told us about football today 👇 stevendabdoub.netlify.app/blog#wc2026r...
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
This FIFA Training Centre research snippet on telestration is a good reminder that football analysis is not just about the processes, workflows and insights. The clear and actionable communication of those insights is arguably the most important part. www.fifatrainingcentre.com/en/environme...
fifatrainingcentre.com
Telestration for coaches: Finding the right balance
Dr John Francis examines how coaches can make the most of telestration to help get their messages across to their players.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Post World Cup and I'm happy to share what I have been working on since which is a relaunch of my personal website where you can see my experiences, references, portfolio work and blog articles. www.stevendabdoub.netlify.app/portfolio
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
A few weeks later and what exactly happened to England vs Argentina? There were different explanations after the match: did Tuchel tell his players to sit back, did they retreat themselves and he tried to reverse it, or did Argentina simply force them back? 🧵exploring below.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
104 matches. 48 teams. 38 days of football. Millions of data points. Now that the World Cup is over, I wanted to put together a quick summary of some of the tactical and data analysis work I did throughout the tournament.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Porro's position IP for Spain while they build on the left is absolutely critical. Always positioned in a safe position for rest defense in case of a turnover to be able to counter press, but well positioned to make that blindside run between the CB and FB like against France.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Based on line up, point here re 4v3 midfield for #Argentina likely means Messi drops in, Nico Gonzalez exploits space in behind Cucurella, since no Paredes.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
The last match before we wait 4 more years for another FIFA World Cup. #Spain vs #Argentina in a World Cup final. Messi, Yamal, La Masia, connections on and off the field in a fixture that hasn't been played competitively for over 50 years. Major Preview Thread!
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Although a lot may be different today considering no one really wants to play and the rotations, I expect my model to be right and favor #France to beat #England, possibly even by more than 1. Interesting territory battle as both teams are flexible given game state and moments.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Tuchel's game management was poor. But a deeper convo HAS to be had about the arrogance of the English methodology and the stubbornness/refusal to learn and innovate. That has promoted the culture that made Tuchel make the decisions he did. It continues to hurt English ftball.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
For me, #France #Spain was a much easier game to call than #England #Argentina. Today, again I am against a lot of models/bookies that have England as favorites. My model has Argentina more likely to win: 45.7% in 90 and 53.2% by 120, with a very close territory control battle.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
It's less about how bad #France were and more about Spain. France? A group of individuals whose talent carried them but unable to play as a cohesive system at the level required and when the day came to play #Spain, I was always confident the team would prevail over individuals.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
What is even more interesting here is France has the shot quality edge, Spain has the ball recovery edge. Which matters more? 👇
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Tonight #Spain and #France face off in what could have been a final. The best attack vs the best defense. But which prevails? France are slight favorites, but my prediction model disagrees giving ESP a slight edge.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
#FIFAWorldCup Quarter-Final match reviews. #France didn't have more possession vs #Morocco but pressed better and had more possession where it mattered (field tilt) hence the threat map. 2-0 win with more penalty area entries and a more symmetric centralized pass network
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
www.theguardian.com/football/202... First time the top 4 FIFA ranked teams have all gone to the semi-finals. FIFA gets, what FIFA wants. Disgraceful manipulation of the game.
theguardian.com
World Cup 2026 draw to adopt tennis-style system for the four top seeds
The world’s top four teams will not be able to meet until the World Cup semi-finals if they win their groups under a new seeding system
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
If I'm Ruben Vargas for #Switzerland, I'd be itching to come on. Dangerous carrier/progressor of the ball. Good chance creator, with high shot quality.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
#Argentina are now 1-0 up which is a problem for #Switzerland: 99 pctile passing/retention 95 pctile npxGA prevention 91 pctile box protection 89 pctile shot suppression
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
#Argentina are favorites, but #Switzerland could make this game very uncomfortable. My model gives #Argentina a 63.4% chance to win in 90 mins, with 1–0 the most likely score. But #Switzerland are projected to slightly control more territory 51-49.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
#Norway aren't favorites, but with Haaland who knows? My model has #England at 71.6% to win in 90 minutes and to control dangerous territory 57–43. But given England's RB issues, Schjelderup and Gordon getting starts. More than the STs, the LWs could decide today
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
#Belgium’s path today is not control. It is escape. #Spain are 68.2% favorites in my model to win and control territory 59–41. Belgium need to escape Spain’s counter-press — over, through or around it, to threaten Spain.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Unlike the 2022 team, this #Morocco team is much more possession sequence oriented and dynamic in their defensive approach hence the EFI Dashboard spending a solid share of time counter-pressing in a low block or a mid block. Efficient and flexible. stevendabdoub.shinyapps.io/2026FIFAWorl...
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Is revenge on the cards for #Morocco tonight? In 2022, #France forced a Morocco team then built on compact defending, to have 62.7% possession and 67.7% field tilt in a 2–0 loss. 2026 Morocco seeks more territory, but my model still favors France to control enough and win.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
#FIFAWorldCup QFs start tomorrow. The bracket is not balanced. Left half? #France, #Morocco, #Spain, #Belgium. Avg strength: 88.5 Right half? More open. #Norway, #England, #Argentina, #Switzerland. Avg strength: 80.4 Closest tie? ESP vs BEL. ENG on paper have the easiest game.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
#Argentina dominated and almost got shocked. #Colombia created more with less territory but were out on PKs. ARG: 82% field tilt, 2.8 xG, 3–2 #Messi escape. COL: 15 shots, 1.03 xG vs 0.35 for #Switzerland Knockout football does not reward domination or territory but survival.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Here we are again with Switzerland and Colombia. Keeping my eyes to see if the data holds up again.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Well it's not a surprise that #Colombia #Switzerland is this cagey and in ET considering it being by far the closest/most competitive Ro16 game based on my bracket.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
#Switzerland? Slightly better pressing than #Colombia with slightly better ball recovery time, more forced turnovers with similar amount of pressures applied (i.e. more effective/efficient pressing) and 83rd pctile for counter pressing. via my EFI Dashboard
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Stylistically? Besides Spain vs Portugal, #Colombia #Switzerland could be one of the closest games, with similar pressing numbers and final third control. With a 1-1 draw projected at 12.5% the margins in this game could be some of the finest in the Ro16, but Colombia favored.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
#Argentina are heavy favorites — 75.9% to win in 90, with 2–0 the most likely score. But the projected territory is only 52–48. #Egypt may not need to dominate the ball, but may also have opportunities to do so and should make them count.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Not even sure if the data on a match dashboard or any tactical discussions because the #USMNT did not show up today. Late to fight for any loose balls, second duels, everything. Absolutely lax and outplayed by what hass been a poor #Belgium team.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Well hello there
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
#USMNT looking absolutely out of it, zoned out, phased out, non existent in the game
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
The headlines around #USMNT vs #Belgium are already massive and controversial. My model projects the US to control the game and territory, but favors an underwhelming Belgium to win. For all the news surround, data and tactics may be irrelevant and fight/mentality may prevail.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
An absolutely dull and passive game from #Portugal, that even with their talent, struggled to take the game to #Spain and allowed Spain to control the game even with slightly more possession (56.4%), much more field tilt (62.1%) and almost 3x as much xG and better pressing.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
3 separate incidents showing how well #Portugal have been closing down #Spain's vertical passing lanes especially closer to the box, forcing Spain to have often sterile and lateral possession. Solutions needed, diagonal runs/passes, 1v1s, rotations + wide overloads.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
23 mins in and #Portugal's high man to man press in #Spain's build stands out, forcing #Spain often to force not even around or through #Portugal but to play long and over. Spain have done it to Portugal a few times as well, and 2nd balls will be crucial as this game goes on.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Expecting a very very intense and close battle for territory here between #Portugal and #Spain. It could also come down to who takes advantage of territory when they have it
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
An instant World Cup classic. Two brilliant moments from Jude Bellingham and #England with a red card completely changed the game, it's state and respective game plans which saw #Mexico control territory and the ball but limited by an organized and sturdy defense.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Questionable decisions from Ancelotti today, I think he got it way wrong. But even with more xG, #Norway clearly controlled the penalty area and dangerous territory and took their chances which #Brazil didn't. Huge upset? Not even in an upset if you ask me.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Today’s games are less about who is better, and more about who can make the favorite uncomfortable. #Brazil are 74.6% to win in 90, but #Norway + Haaland won't make it that easy for sure. #England are favored, but #Mexico at the Azteca with 0 goals conceded? Not a free pass.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Football in 1 lesson: moments matter. #Canada controlled territory and were better, but one set piece changed the game state and #Morocco punished late in transition. #France had the ball, but #Paraguay controlled space, and 1 penalty decided it. Control matters. Moments win.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
#Paraguay. According to the data, not good at much. But what they are good at, they near perfect compared to other teams which is pressuring and forcing turnovers of the ball. via my ShinyWebApp with FIFA EFI Data! stevendabdoub.shinyapps.io/2026FIFAWorl...
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
#France should win this comfortably. My model has them at 82.1% to win in 90, with 2–0 and 3–0 among the likeliest scorelines. #Paraguay’s only real chance is to make this the opposite of a normal France game: nasty, scrappy, chaotic.
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Reposted by Steven Dabdoub
Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
via @gradientsports.bsky.social Very contestable point I know, but Tillman imo is more important to the #USMNT than Pulisic and/or Balo. Absolutely clutch player on and off the ball. Especially as it relates to breaking lines and progressing the ball.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
#Colombia - the most impressive team today, and the scoreline didn't reflect their performance. #Argentina and Messi won but were exposed, despite controlling territory just like Egypt who drew 1-1. 3 matches and it still shows, performance and results are separate. 1 matters.
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Steven Dabdoub @stevendabdoub.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
Before the #WorldCup I examined the strength and competitiveness of each group with D as a toss up, F, A and B also pretty competitive. But how did results fare? I, J, and A were pretty uncompetitive, while G and H were more competitive than expected for sure.
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