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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 01/09/2026

The only way to get ready for a night of MA results coverage

Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 19/06/2026

It’s an American exacta at Royal Ascot! Wesley Ward’s Bacio and George Weaver’s Sandal’s Song go 1-2 in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes.

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 09/06/2026

Where to set the bar for Platner in tonight's Maine Dem primary? A late May UNH poll -- taken after Mills dropped out and before the new round of controversies -- gave him a 76-21% advantage over the others on the ballot (and a write-in candidate).

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 26/05/2026

Three hours from (most) polls closing in Texas. Come on along and watch the map light up county by county with me. And let your friends know too. The link is below.

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 16/05/2026

4-7pm: Preakness coverage on NBC. Who do you like? 9pm - ???: Non-stop, just the results livestream coverage of the Louisiana GOP Senate primary. Will Cassidy survive?? Hope you’ll tune in for both!

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 02/05/2026

Happy Derby Day from a chilly but thankfully dry Churchill Downs! NBC’s coverage picks up at 2:30. Make it an afternoon with us as the anticipation builds to the 152nd Run for the Roses. I have Potente - how about you??

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 22/04/2026

So what happened? We set benchmarks in each county/city for the NO side last night. NO met or exceeded it in 48 of 134 counties/cities in VA. It was within 1.5 points in another 46. But its biggest misses were in the state's biggest, Dem-heavy counties:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 22/04/2026

Meanwhile, some of the biggest Dem/Yes vote-producing counties/cities had the lowest turnout numbers relative to 2024:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 22/04/2026

Where was turnout the highest? Relative to the 2024 WH election, it was heavily GOP/NO counties that saw the highest levels:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 22/04/2026

The 16 counties/independent cities that voted for both Spanberger (D) in '25 and Youngkin (R) in '21:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 17/04/2026

Dem municipalities with substantial Jewish populations:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 17/04/2026

Dem municipalities with substantial Jewish populations:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 17/04/2026

House special elections, Trump 2nd term (updated with NJ-11):

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 08/04/2026

The GA-14 result represents the largest net-shift toward Democrats (25 points) in a House special election during Trump's 2nd term so far:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 07/04/2026

It’s the second week of April. The NCAA Tournament is over. And all eyes are on Georgia for the renewal of what has become a tradition. It can only mean one thing:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/04/2026

We’ll be back Tuesday night with a just-the-results election night livestream for GA-14 and the WI Supreme Court. Details to follow but I wanted to get the word out now so no one makes any other plans! Our April schedule:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 17/03/2026

A homemade poster to hype tonight's livestream of the Illinois primary!

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 10/03/2026

We’ll be live in less than 3 hours — very excited to try out a different set tonight with this gigantic board! Link for the livestream is below, you won’t want to miss it!

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 03/03/2026

Expectations are all over the place for the Crockett--Talarico Dem Senate primary in Texas today. A useful point of reference may be the closely contested 2020 Democratic run-off for US Senate between M.J. Hegar and Royce West:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 02/03/2026

7:30 EST tomorrow night: Polls close in NC and I'll go live from this set and won't stop until all the key races in NC and Texas are decided. Nothing but results all night long. Spread the word -- livestream links are in the next tweet....

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 17/02/2026

A few years ago, I put together a state-by-state look at the black vote in Democratic WH contests since 1976. On the impact of Jesse Jackson's 1984 and '88 bids:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 08/02/2026

Happy Super Bowl Sunday! Our coverage of starts in 1 hour on NBC

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

NBC has not made a call in NJ-11 and we expect no more votes tonight. Here is where things stand at the end of the night:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

The same-day onslaught continues for Mejia, who is starting to build a lead over Malinowski in NJ-11. A late flood of anti-Malinowski attacks from outside groups backing another candidate (Tahesha Way) may have given Mejia a crucial assist.

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

A shocker in NJ-11, where Analilia Mejia has now pulled ahead of former Rep. Tom Malinowski in the Democratic primary, powered by a massive margin over Malinowski in same-day votes.

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

Mejia is now within a point as more Morris same-day comes in. There is more outstanding vote.

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

Bloomfield in Essex County comes in massive for Mejia -- she is now within 2 points of Malinowski in NJ-11

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

Another update. Still some more same-day in Essex and even more in Morris to come. Still only ~500 same-day counted in Passaic. Mejia cuts Malinowski lead under 4 points, continues to lead same-day tallies in each county.

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

*Finally* some same-day from Passaic - about 500 votes, Mejia cleans up in it. She's leading same day tallies in all three counties right now.

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

Some more Morris same-day - with a lot still to come. Mejia again leads this batch, brings the Malinowski margin to 4.7 district-wide.

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

Here's the NJ-11 tally now. Mejia is up big in same-day vote in Essex. Only about 2k same-day are counted in Morris but she is bow leading that count too. No same-day at all from Passaic. Malinowski lead is 5.3 currently and has been dropping.

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

Still not a ton counted in Morris, but Mejia now leads Malinowski in the same-day tally there. Continues to pour it on in Essex same-day. Overall malinowski lead just under 6:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

While Mejia is winning the same-day in Essex pretty big, Malinowski is leading it over her in Morris by 22. And appears to be more outstanding vote there than in Essex.

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

Big same-day batch just added in Essex -- Mejia gains more and now leads Essex overall. But a lot to overcome still for her. She trails Malinowski by 9% with plenty of Malinowski strength in Morris left.

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

Now getting same-day in Essex and Morris. Mejia doing much better w/ Election Day vote but Malinowski holding his own and still up 12 overall:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

Morris hasn't posted to its site, but @wildstein has obtained the tally - Malinowksi, with party backing, cleans up in early/VBM w/ 49%. He leads district-wide 2-1 over nearest foe in early/VBM. Would take a monumental change in same day to stop his comeback bid tonight.

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

Similar story in Passaic, the smallest part of the district. Malinowski again leads early/mail. Here Way and Bartlett had official support. Still missing is Morris, where Malinowski has the party endorsement and was already expected to do well

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/02/2026

This looks like the early vote/mail for Essex (which makes up about 1/2 of the NJ-11 Dem universe). Encouraging for Malinowski, who didn't have the party's backing here. Gill did -- he'll need that support to translate into a big same-day number to turn this around:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 06/01/2026

The passing of Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) will trigger a special election in California's 1st District. In previous special elections this Congress, Dems have posted net improvements of between 9 and 22 points relative to the '24 WH margin -- which in CA-1 was Trump +25:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 16/12/2025

Interesting from our NBC Decision Desk poll -- the economy and healthcare are broadly resonant issues with all Americans, but among Democrats a different issue ranks #1: threats to democracy. This is largely driven by the party's white college-educated voters:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 03/12/2025

2025 House special elections (updated with TN-7)

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 02/12/2025

A useful metric as the TN-7 results come in: the 2018 U.S. Senate race between Marsha Blackburn (R) and Phil Bredesen (D). It was close to dead even in TN-7, with Blackburn finishing 0.5 points ahead of Bredesen:

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Steve Kornacki (unofficial bot) @stevekornacki.bluesky.bot · 02/12/2025

It turns out, he was off by 16, but today McGreeey's name is again on the ballot in the run-off election for mayor of Jersey City. He's the prohibitive underdog.

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