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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 19h

#Isaias poised to bring several feet of coastal storm surge and the possibility of inland flooding. Here's an update to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) take-up map through September 30. Potential landfall counties w/ 10-25% take-up. Translation: A lot of water damage will be uninsured.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

October 7 AM: The sun rises on a clearly organizing Isaias. It's starting to show "that look" as it feeds on extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Anticipate a period of quick intensification today and tomorrow as it heads towards the northern Gulf Coast. AL / MS / LA / FL -- Prepare now.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Oct 6 4pm CT: Tropical Depression Nine (Isaias) is in the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC ramps this up to Category 2 (100 mph) prior to landfall in 3-4 days. Yes: October storms in the Gulf are normal. Yes: Many Gulf storms have overperformed in recent years as ocean waters grow warmer. TD9? Stay tuned.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

What a spectacular two nights in Las Vegas this weekend to see Metallica's opening shows at The Sphere. Absolutely mindbending experience! Of the 66 Metallica shows I've seen, these two were particularly memorable... (Here's an opening clip of "One")

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Quick stop to the Hoover Dam (Lake Mead + Boulder Basin) before Night 1 of Metallica at The Sphere. Breathtaking views and a true scientific marvel. Hard to mask the shock of the extremely low water levels. Major concern for the Colorado River system and the region's water / electrical supply.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

1926 Miami and Andrew (1992) are arguably Florida's most consequential storms. Both forced the need for building codes, storm preparation, and quality forecasting. If the 1926 event struck today, it would reasonably generate $200+ billion in economic damage; $120+ billion would be insured. (2/2)

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Today marks the 100th anniversary of the Great Miami Hurricane, which brought Category 4 wind / surge damage to a city which was still in its infancy. Things have changed A LOT since. Just look at the graphic below highlighting population and housing unit totals from 1900-2025. Staggering! (1/2)

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Spoke at an event at Torrey Pines today in San Diego. Not being able to play a round on the south course afterward is brutal. What a gorgeous place; spectacular views of the Pacific!

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

A reprieve from hurricane activity in the Atlantic is obviously welcome. But a consequence is fewer people feeling the need to have flood insurance. Latest statistics from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) shows continued active policy declines; notably in key states such as FL, TX, LA.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

When I walked out of Notre Dame Stadium yesterday, having watched Notre Dame put up 52 on the scoreboard, I'd never have imagined the Chicago Bears putting up 59 (!!!) 24 hours later.

static.klipy.com

Da Bears! Chicago Bears Fans Cheering

ALT: Da Bears! Chicago Bears Fans Cheering

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Summer 2026 (Jun-Aug) has set the new record for warmest in the Continental US dating to the late 1800s; surpassing 1936. NOAA data confirms what consensus climate change scientific literature tells us: Yes, max highs are getting hotter. But MUCH warmer min lows are driving temperature trends.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Thru Sept 4: The Atlantic hurricane season has produced the least amount of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) to-date (4.4) since 1941 (0.0). ACE is a measure of individual storm or seasonal intensity / longevity of tropical cyclone activity. (FYI: The Pacific Ocean has produced ~360 ACE thus far.)

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

The data is the data, but the caveat for the HURDAT2 dataset is that even with reanalysis pre-1966, there is some activity uncertainty during those seasons. Many papers (several by Vecchi) have tried to account for "misses," but they have not been adopted by the NHC.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Could the strength of this El Niño cause the 2026 Atlantic season to go without a hurricane? It's possible, but it's way too early to make a call like that with any certainty. Only two known Atlantic seasons since 1851 have gone without a hurricane: 1907 (ENSO Neutral) and 1914 (El Niño). (2/2)

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

The Atlantic remains without a hurricane in 2026. The attached graphic shows how many seasons had a later "first" calendar day hurricane formation after September 3. With the next two weeks looking to stay quiet, 2026 will keep heading towards a record for latest "first" hurricane. (1/2)

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

The compounding nature of extreme heat is accelerating the degradation of our aging infrastructure. This is yet another daily example of climate change impacts in real time.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Not yet. It looks like 2-6" in the hardest-hit suburban areas. Downtown Toronto had 1-2".

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Hope they are okay! Environment Canada had a "red-level" thunderstorm warning out for this cluster. Hope everyone was able to receive the notifications ahead of time.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

September 2 PM: The suburbs of Toronto just took a significant hailswath in addition to gusty winds and heavy rainfall. A lot of exposed areas were affected and this is very likely going to be quite an expensive event.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

At the inaugural NOAA Industry Partnerships Summit and, as always, @kellyhereid.bsky.social and @mcb-wxclimaterisk.bsky.social are putting on a masterclass in describing NOAA's critical relevance to how the private sector is able to assess catastrophe risk.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

The human toll from the horrific flood disaster in Nepal and Tibet is enormous. A devastating tragedy. The economic damage cost will run into the billions (USD). For a country with a ~$46bn GDP, that is sizeable and will require international help to rebuild. www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/n...

hindustantimes.com

Nepal flash flood losses could run into ‘few billions’, says minister; seeks ‘different fundraising campaign’

“I think the losses and damages when they will be finally quantified in a week or so, will amount to at least a few billion dollars,” the minister said. | World News

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

For the seismology nerds out there: Interesting to note that today's M6.0 earthquake off the coast of Somalia was the 16th tremor of M6.0+ intensity in this part of the world in the past 100+ years.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Katrina (2005) -- Obvious. Andrew (1992) -- Changed the game entirely for building codes, insurance, and storm forecasting. Harvey (2017) -- Set the standard for what happens when a big storm drops prodigious rains in a major metro. Miami (1926) -- The ultimate "if it happened today" storm.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

At least 44% of the US Lower 48 is in moderate or worse drought conditions (as of August 18). With CONUS wildfire activity already running well above the decadal average for acres burned (>7.4M in 2026 vs ~4.0M avg), many parts of the US remain highly vulnerable to fire risk if an ignition occurs.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Damage assessments continue in Hawaii following the passage of Hurricane Lala. Much of the damage on Hawaii (island) is flood-related. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) take-up rate on the island is less than 5%, which sadly means that a large portion of incurred damage will be uninsured.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Producer Price Index for construction materials and asphalt shingles / siding and coating materials continue reaching new heights. The cycle of why it matters: Catastrophe event → Greater replacement costs during recovery → Higher insurance claims costs → More price pressure on premium renewals

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Very intense wind gusts, power outages, and subsequent damage reported all throughout the Chicago metro region from the derecho. Peak gust of 96 mph now reported in Will County. Winds topping 70-80 mph across a very heavily populated part of Illinois.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Reminder: The climatological peak months for US derecho occurrences are May / June / July. August is also a prime month given summer heat and "Ring of Fire" patterns that can establish. A derecho can occur in any month if the conditions are right (including December -- notably Iowa in 2021.)

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Latest from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Heads up for all of northern Illinois and eventually Indiana as this line continues to mature (intensify) as it enters a very favorable atmospheric environment. www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/...

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

August 11 8:45AM CT: Heads up to the Chicago metro area. An intensifying line of thunderstorms is approaching, and already has a history of >85 mph straight-line wind gusts. This will likely meet the derecho definition. Could be a very impactful / damaging few hours ahead.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Dolphin became the second storm of 2026 with 50+ ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). 2025 and 1957 are the only calendar years with more 50+ ACE storms (3) globally since 1950. Five years have had two (2026, 2018, 2016, 2004, 1997). ACE: A measure of storm / seasonal intensity and longevity. (2/2)

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

August 9: Typhoon #Dolphin continues to come ashore in China following landfall earlier today. The large system continues to bring very heavy rainfall and gusty winds across a large swath of eastern China. (1/2)

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Cookie Monster coming back to sing the 7th inning stretch at Wrigley Field again tonight is what we all needed. Legend.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

While long anticipated, it is confirmed that 2025's Eaton Fire was ignited by "electrical arcing on an out-of-service transmission tower." Expect subrogation recoveries by insurance carriers from the California Wildfire Fund; which has $21 billion. FULL REPORT: file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/lac...

file.lacounty.gov

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Agreed. Our data shows the 1989 Manitoba fires as having a <USD300 million economic loss in today's dollars. Here's a bit of info on costs from the Calgary Herald. @drjeffmasters.bsky.social

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

We've got Fort McMurray (Horse Creek Fire) at USD6.3 billion in today's dollars; nominal loss (time of occurrence) at USD4.5 billion. This is the direct economic damage / loss. @drjeffmasters.bsky.social

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

UPDATE: It appears that local fire officials are now confirming that 640 structures were destroyed in Spokane's Old Trails Fire. (HT: @kellyhereid.bsky.social) www.spokesman.com/stories/2026...

spokesman.com

Wildfire destroys 640 structures

The Old Trails wildfire destroyed 640 structures Saturday, according to Cody Rohrbach, fire chief of Spokane District 3.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

August 2 AM: Latest NFIC wildfire perimeters suggest that a sizeable number of homes and structures were likely affected in the Old Trails Fire in Spokane, Washington. Awaiting official word from state / local firefighters as assessments begin.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

There certainly is room for just the facts as far as I'm concerned. It's absolutely essential. Of course, climate change is playing a role. No serious person would dispute. But as people are evacuating their homes with fires raging, immediate priority must be on life and property. This isn't hard.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

I may add "oddly un end of the world social media post" to my professional bio moving forward. 😂

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

August 1 5:30 PM PT: Active fires burning uncomfortably close to the Spokane (WA) metro area. Evacuations are underway for some city residents. Extreme / Critical fire conditions in place across much of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana today.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Latest USGS ShakeMap (Version 6) suggests a significant rupture just south of the city of Kumamoto, Japan. An even larger number of people (>700,000) are estimated to have been exposed to "Severe" or "Violent" shaking. USGS now suggests a ~50% chance of economic damage exceeding $10 billion.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

CORRECTION: The 2016 Kumamoto sequence featured a M7.0 and a M6.2 in April. Today's EQ was rated a M6.8 by the USGS.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Here is initial info from the USGS from today's earthquake in southern Japan in Kumamoto Prefecture. This will likely be a damaging and expensive event. FYI: The 2016 Kumamoto EQ sequence (M7.0 & M6.8) resulted in $53 billion in economic losses; of which $8 billion were insured (2026 USD).

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

With El Niño continuing to ramp up, it is not a surprise that the Pacific basin is becoming so active even prior to "peak" TC months. Previous year number of explosive global RI storms: 2017: 9 2018: 20 2019: 15 2020: 15 2021: 10 2022: 10 2023: 18 2024: 14 2025: 12 2026: 9 -- thru July 26 (2/2)

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

July 26: Genevieve becomes the 9th global tropical cyclone in calendar year 2026 to undergo extreme rapid intensification (>50 knots in a 24-hour period). Of the 19 TCs to reach hurricane intensity this year, 11 have reached Category 3+ intensity. Eight (8) of those have been Category 4/5. (1/2)

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Six years old. It was time for her to experience the Original NES. "Dad! Is this like Nintendo Switch? Where is Luigi? Is Jack Black in this game?" I've never felt older.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Significant wildfire situation across parts of France and Spain amid record-setting summer heat in Europe. Yes, humans are a leading igniter of wildfires. Yes, climate change has absolutely enhanced conditions that bring such rapid fire spread / extreme fire behavior. apnews.com/article/spai...

apnews.com

More than 200,000 people flee raging wildfires in France and Spain, some escaping by boat

Massive forest fires are raging out of control in southwestern France and central Spain, forcing authorities to evacuate around 200,000 people.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

A little bit of both. The New Orleans NWS office has a good technical discussion about it this afternoon. I've highlighted the portion that gets into the heat / tropical storm dichotomy.

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