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Stephen Wertheim

@stephenwertheim.bsky.social
3.5K followers 417 following 384 posts

America in the world, past and present / Senior Fellow, American Statecraft Program, @carnegieendowment.org / Visiting Lecturer, Yale Law School / Historian and author of Tomorrow, the World: The Birth of U.S. Global Supremacy / Views my own, obviously

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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Presidents have long promised to draw down in the Middle East. Instead, Trump's war with Iran has poured munitions into the region and depleted U.S. capabilities everywhere. I shared thoughts with The Atlantic:
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Look forward to joining this @chathamhouse.org conversation, October 6 in London. Register here: www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
going in for the socialist fraternal kiss
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Some in the Trump administration see the problem I see—that America is militarily overextended and allies should step up. The National Security Strategy rightly says we should no longer hold up the globe like Atlas. But you don't have to drop the globe and start kicking it around, either.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The Iran war is a crisis of American governance. Nobody voted for it. Trump ripped up the nuclear deal for partisan reasons and then launched an attack he thought would be quick but that every decent analyst said would unfold basically as it has. Even so, Congress won't end it.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Trump's Iran paradox: he wants to squeeze Iran without returning to all-out war, but the more effectively he squeezes Iran, the more incentive Iran has to escalate and force him to back to all-out war.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Courage, in this account, is ordering subordinates to bomb a country for reasons you can't explain and might not know yourself, being surprised when the war goes exactly as predicted by people you ignored, claiming victory when you've lost, and
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
A banger avant la lettre www.nytimes.com/1998/04/27/o...
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Gaping holes in this @washingtonpost.com editorial: "Containment is working." To do what — choke Iran's economy while Iran chokes the strait and raises prices for Americans?
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Three longstanding elements of U.S. policy have led the United States to war and defeat in Iran:
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
U.S. foreign policy is beset by virtue-signaling moralism claiming to save the world and vice-signaling immoralism seeking to dominate the world — often amounting to the same thing.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
If this is the logic Trump is acting on, he’ll be at war with Iran for the rest of his presidency.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Forget freedom of navigation: it’s now a battle for whose piracy will prevail. Perfect example of what happens when liberal internationalists hitch their wagon to Trump.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
started / going
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
As Trump seeks a massive hike in military spending to $1.5 trillion per year, a majority of Americans, 55%, want to decrease military spending. Only 12% want to increase it.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
"Asked who is most responsible for the war, a plurality of Americans (30%) blame the United States. About as many blame Iran (28%) and slightly fewer blame Israel (24%)." So 54% of Americans blame the United States or Israel for the war. Just 28% blame Iran.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
When I criticized Trump's National Security Strategy in January for renouncing but maintaining U.S. military primacy, I worried I was being unfair. Unfortunately I worry no longer.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Just 28% of Americans now see China as an enemy as opposed to a competitor or partner.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
What caused Iran to do one of the very few things that can genuinely damage the permanent interest the United States has in the Middle East, to close down the Strait of Hormuz? A U.S. attack on Iran. An attack aimed at the survival of the regime, which gave it the incentive to close the strait.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
More Americans need to connect the hubris behind unwise wars with the hubris behind the larger strategy of "peace through strength"
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
It's a Basil Fawlty market on Wall Street
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Trump's war is unpopular in the United States, I told @aljazeera.com, but tragically that may lead Trump to escalate in a bid to force Iran to capitulate or theatrically appear to have ended the war on Trump's terms.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
3. This war has historically low support from the American public. But Trump is mainly playing to the history books, as he imagines them, rather than actual living people.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
2. U.S. domestic politics — its inflation of Iran's threat and intolerance of diplomatic deals — made this war possible. Trump talks of deals but breaks them more than he makes them.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
I joined @news.dw.com to discuss the latest on the Iran war. I argued: 1. The maximalist ceasefire proposals from both sides suggest the war's escalation is more likely than its termination.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
This Delcys of the World map can help Trump figure out which countries have Delcys and which do not
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
I told @nytimes.com that Trump practices the "punch down doctrine": Bully small countries he thinks he can dominate. Where he can't, try to accommodate.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Solid weekend cover
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
I told @thetimes.com that @aoc.bsky.social's answer on Taiwan was not only reasonable but better than Biden's:
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
There will be U.S. foreign policy after Trump. I look forward to discussing its contours on Friday 9 am at @munsecconf.bsky.social. Spots are open for registration.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Only 35% of Americans say the United States has more global power and influence than China does. I am with the 19% who say the United States is more powerful than China — but that’s the least popular of the three options polled in the new @carnegieendowment.org / YouGov survey.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
President Biden said the United States was “the indispensable nation” that “holds the world together.” But a large majority of Democrats say the United States is one of several powerful nations — not the single most powerful.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Another remarkable finding: A solid majority of Americans — 62 percent — say their lives would not get worse if China surpassed the United States in global power and influence.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
This finding surprised me: 47% of Americans say China is already more powerful than the United States or will be within 5 years. Only one-quarter think China will never overtake the United States.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Q: As President Donald Trump approaches the first anniversary of his inauguration, if you were to choose a single word to characterize the defining feature of his foreign policy over the past year, what would it be? Me: Thuggish. Extortionate. Frenzied. Myopic.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
Can Democrats tell a compelling story about America's role in the world?
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
No need for analysis when he's just saying it.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
Trump gets way too much credit for talking about peace without delivering it. (And much of what he says — "peace through strength," no nation-building wars — is nothing new.) Full podcast here: youtu.be/TvXCbfwQfKM?...
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
I joined Morning Joe to discuss Trump's failure to end wars and avoid new ones — the standard he set for himself in his inaugural address.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Our Middle East delusion, shared by Trump and the establishment: www.vox.com/world-politi...
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Ir...
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
If the United States joins Israel’s fight to try to finish Israel’s job, it will enter into a war of unknowable scope against a country of 90 million people in a region of marginal strategic significance. My essay co-published this morning in the Guardian and The American Conservative:
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
I told @nytimes.com that the best evidence of Trump's pursuit of "spheres of influence" lies in his ambition to assert American power in the Western Hemisphere. But the evidence remains thin that he'd like to grant the same prerogatives to China or Russia in their regions.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Trump should get credit for repudiating nation-building wars — but not too much credit. Avoiding wars in the Middle East ultimately requires backing away from the very Gulf autocrats Trump hailed. www.cbc.ca/news/world/f...
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
I told @newsweek.com: “Between Trump's threats to annex territory hither and yonder, and his erratic moves on all manner of matters, Trump erodes the attractiveness of the United States as a partner for other countries."
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
In Taiwan's CommonWealth Magazine, @jekavanagh.bsky.social and I write that if Taiwan doesn't became capable of fending off Chinese forces once they land on the island, it will be in big trouble — and America won't save it.
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Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim.bsky.social · 27/04/2025
I told @washingtonpost.com: "Trump may think he's creating pressure on Beijing, but he’s imposed probably more pressure on himself than Xi Jinping feels." www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
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