iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 15/11/2025

Most points in an #AFLW final: 1. Adelaide 23 SF v Syd: 82 2. Fremantle 20 FW1 v GCS: 80 3. Carlton 25 SF v Haw: 79

000

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

Imagine if they called it Bounce. They would've had a hit on their hands.

000

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

Essendon have just gone 1.2 (8) up to the Kangaroos' 0 points. This is the biggest deficit the Roos have faced this season, breaking the previous best of 6 points held by Geelong. #AFLW

010

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 06/09/2025

And here are the women's projections. Janja Garnbret is once again the rampaging favourite to take it. Seo, McNeice and Rogora are in a good position to pounce if she doesn't. #WorldClimbing

A table showing predictions of the IFSC Koper 2025 women's lead final. The list of athletes and their chances of winning are as follows:
1. Janja Garnbret 44.8%
2. Seo Chaehyun 17%
3. Erin McNeice 15.2%
4. Laura Rogora 12.4%
5. Lucka Rakovec 5.6%
6. Rosa Rekar 2%
7. Heloïse Doumont 1.9%
8. Lucija Tarkus 1%

020

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 06/09/2025

Here are the Koper #WorldClimbing final projections. Jakob Schubert has come roaring back to competition and he's the firm favourite. Anraku, Roberts, Ginés López and Ondra are all good chances of taking the title as well.

A table showing predictions of the IFSC Koper 2025 men's lead final. The list of athletes and their chances of winning are as follows:
1. Jakob Schubert 23.4%
2. Anraku Sorato 16.5%
3. Toby Roberts 14.8%
4. Alberto Ginés López 14.1%
5. Adam Ondra 11.6%
6. Suzuki Neo 8.7%
7. Yoshida Satone 8.3%
8. Putra Tri Ramadani 2.7%

120

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

For the women's lead, Janja Garnbret is of course the runaway favourite since Mori Ai isn't in attendance. Seo, McNeice, Rogora, Pilz and Kim are all decent shots. #WorldClimbing

Table showing predictions for IFSC Koper 2025. Following is the top 6 athletes and their win percentages in women's lead.
Janja Garnbret 47%
Seo Chaehyun 13.4%
Erin McNeice 12.6%
Laura Rogora 8.6%
Jessica Pilz 6.6%
Kim Jain 4.3%

100

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

IFSC Koper is about to kick off! Here's what I've got for results. Anraku, Ginés López and Roberts are the favourites for the men's lead. Suzuki and Yoshida aren't far behind either. #WorldClimbing

Table showing predictions for IFSC Koper 2025. Following is the top 5 athletes and their win percentages in men's lead.
Anraku Sorato 21.1%
Alberto Ginés López 19.6%
Toby Roberts 17.4%
Suzuki Neo 10%
Yoshida Satone 8.7%

110

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 30/08/2025

#AFLW players to lead (or jointly lead) goals, hitouts, clearances, inside 50s, metres gained and score involvements in one match: Matilda Scholz (PA, Rd 3 2025) (Erin Phillips x2, Dana Hooker, Mon Conti and Mim Strom have each lead 5 of these 6 categories)

000

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 30/08/2025

Most goals in an #AFLW game while leading hitouts: 1. M Scholz, 4 (PA, Rd 3 2025) =2. E King, 3 (NM, Rd 4 2019) =2. E King, 3 (NM, Rd 1 2021) =2. M Scholz, 3 (PA, Rd 10 2023 =5. 9 players, 2

110

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 30/08/2025

Jas Grierson has just kicked her second career goal, for Sydney. Her first goal was Melbourne's first goal in the #AFLW way back in round 1 2017.

040

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 28/08/2025

#AFL Benchwarmers of the Year 1. Angus Sheldrick (SY), estimated 17h 50m spent on the bench 2. Harry Sharp (ME) 17h 49m 3. Cooper Lord (CA) 16h 30m 4. Jacob Konstanty (NM) 14h 56m 5. Josh Sinn (PA) 14h 34m

031

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

Yes I'm aware that this is ridiculously specific.

000

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

Highest point total cleared by two teams in one #AFLW round: 103: Sydney & Brisbane (Rd 2, 2025)* 99: Gold Coast & Melbourne (Rd 2, 2023) 87: Adelaide & North Melbourne (Rd 7, 2024) 83: Brisbane & Melbourne (Rd 3, 2023) 82: Essendon & Brisbane (Rd 3, S7) and North Melbourne & Melbourne (Rd 7, 2023)

110

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

Biggest single match goal hauls in #AFLW: B Lochland (WB, 2018 Rd 4) - 7.3 C Molloy (SY, 2025 Rd 2) - 7.3 J Stanton (GC, 2023 Rd 2) - 6.2 G Bodey (HW, 2024 Wk 4) - 6.0 A Moloney (GE, 2024 Wk 9) - 6.0

020

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

Lucia Painter is now only the 4th AFLW player to kick 3 goal on debut and the first since 2019. Darcy Vescio (2017) and Courteney Munn (2019) kicked 4, Erin Phillips (2017) kicked 3 in their first games. #AFLWEaglesSuns

020

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

Highest disposal counts in the 2025 #AFLW practice matches: 40: Georgie Prespakis (GE) 35: Laura Gardiner (SY) 33: Ash Riddell (NM) 31: Ebony Marinoff (AD) 30: Alyce Parker (GW) 28: Eliza McNamara (ME) 27: Kiara Bowers (FR), Madeleine Guerin (CA), Anne Hatchard (AD)

000

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 02/08/2025

Most disposals by players with at least 20 hitouts in a match 1. Graham Farmer, 43 (1966 Rd 9 vs. Fitzroy) 2. Gary Dempsey, 40 (1980 Rd 20 vs. Essendon) 3. Brodie Grundy, 39 (2025 Rd 21 vs. Essendon) #AFL

010

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 27/07/2025

With 2 matches left to be played, round 20 already has the 11th biggest sum of margins for a round in the 21st century. 1st. Round 18, 2012: 572 points (margins of 120, 98, 94, 76, 72, 54, 27, 27, 4) --- 11th. Round 20, 2025: 475 points (101, 98, 93, 66, 49, 44, 24, ?, ?)

000

Reposted by Stattraction

Max Barry @squiggle.au · 29/04/2025

Squiggle Football - Trailer #2 for PC, Mac + Linux... August 2025 Wishlist now --> store.steampowered.com/app/1543960/...

171

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 26/04/2025

In the men's, Roberts, Homma, Omata and Lehmann have all exited in semis which has really opened up the podium. Anraku and Ginés López are the clear favourites for gold and silver. After that is anyone's guess, it's wide open.

000

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 26/04/2025

IFSC Wujiang heads into finals and not a lot changed from yesterday in the women's. Seo Chaehyun is still expected to win with Rogora and Sanders completing the podium. Apel wasn't given much of a chance to make it this far, so good on her.

130

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

In the men's, Ginés López has a decent chance of winning now, while Suzuki has shot into the top 10 after being originally projected in second-to-last due to his prolonged absence from the lead climbing circuit. The big names all made semis, here.

000

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

I don't think there's much of a sport climbing scene on bsky but hey, why not. IFSC Wujiang 2025 Qualis are over and I figured I'd sim the rest of the tournament. For women's, McNeice & Mackenzie have shot up the standings while Kotake has shockingly fallen before semis.

130

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

It's just so silly. You never know when a team is going to random turn it on and win 5 games in a row.

000

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

STaRS has already reduced the finals contenders to 11 teams which feels a little premature. I really need to work on the projection code because it's not working for me right now. Oh well! stattraction.au/afl-round-5-...

stattraction.au

AFL: Round 5, 2025

Hihi. 6/8 tips, 2.5 Bits and 22.1 MAE is a good result…

110

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

Adelaide are the number 1 attacking team in the competition per STaRS, and it's not even particularly close. The post for the week is up here: stattraction.au/afl-round-4-...

A cropped table of STaRS' ratings, showing Adelaide in first with a 100% attack rating. In 2nd is Geelong with 71%, and Collingwood, GWS and Hawthorn filling out the remainder of the top 5.

010

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

I have a feeling my model is going to do quite poorly this year if it doesn't stop backing in Essendon. Anyway, my round 3 post is up, the site is updated, and the data I send to Squiggle is updated. stattraction.au/afl-round-3-...

stattraction.au

AFL: Round 3, 2025

4/8 tips (bad!), 0.14 Bits (bad!), and 32.13 MAE (mid!). I am…

110

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

Using free kick counts as a substitute for actual reasoning in the umpire debate has always been extremely silly, but I'll indulge it for a moment.

Table showing the amount of times AFL teams have won a lopsided free kick count that meets two criteria set by the 2025 round 2 match where Collingwood received 19 more free kicks than the Bulldogs, accounting for 70% of the free kicks given. The Bulldogs have been the beneficiary of most of these games with 18, with Collingwood 2nd with 15.

010

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

You know projecting the AFL season this early in the year is a fruitless endeavour when you get this garbage happening. Teams are jumping everywhere all over the ladder. Anyway, this round's post is up. stattraction.au/afl-round-2-...

A graphic shows Adelaide, Collingwood and Gold Coast moving up the projected ladder by 4, 6 and 6 places respectively, while Port Adelaide dropped by 5 places.

040

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

It's taken a bit of elbow grease, but I've finally got a new website up and I'll be archiving my old one. To new beginnings 🎉 stattraction.au

stattraction.au

Stattraction

011

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

I know some models use head to head history in predictions? That would accomplish this.

110

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 21/12/2024

I didn't give you much to work with haha Thank you, Tony! And merry Christmas.

010

Reposted by Stattraction

Wheelo Ratings @wheeloratings.com · 26/11/2024

Thanks to @stattraction.bsky.social, AFLW B&F votes are available on the player stats page back to 2017: www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.ht... #AFL #AFLW

051

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Here's the top ten for AFLW B&F career averages. Just like the pre-count tally, there aren't any players with tiny sample sizes, but we now have Nanscawen with just 23 games in the mix. Bowers is still in first, and that wasn't likely to change since she didn't play this season.

Table with each player's name, the teams they've played for, their mean career votes, their total votes, and the amount of home & away games they've played in their career. The player and mean vote columns are as follows: Kiara Bowers 1.45
Monique Conti 1.39
Madison Prespakis 1.32
Ebony Marinoff 1.27
Ash Riddell 1.26
Ellie Blackburn 1.14
Georgia Nanscawen 1.13
Anne Hatchard 1.03
Paxy Paxman 1.01
Georgie Prespakis 0.97

000

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Here are the new career AFLW B&F vote leaders after tonight's count. As I not-so-boldly predicted yesterday, Marinoff has taken first with a small gap to Conti. Prespakis has jumped up to third from equal sixth after a great count for her.

Table with each player's name, the teams they've played for, their career votes, their average votes, and the amount of home & away games they've played this year. The player and total vote columns are as follows: Ebony Marinoff 98
Monique Conti 96
Madison Prespakis 82
Ellie Blackburn 79
Anne Hatchard 74
Ash Riddell 73
Emily Bates 70
Paxy Paxman 68
Jasmine Garner 66
Kiara Bowers 64

141

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

And for completeness' sake, here's the highest averages. It's interesting that everyone involved has a pretty big sample size thus far. No players playing a couple of games and dominating. Everyone here is established.

010

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

Heading into tomorrow, here are the top 12 career vote getters in the AFLW league B&F so far. Mon Conti holds a narrow lead in front of Ellie Blackburn and Ebony Marinoff. If things fall as expected tomorrow night, Noffy might become the new number 1.

130

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

That's fair, I figured if I was counting Mihocek then it's only fair I count Fritsch as well but you're right.

010

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

We do have some premiership key forward combos that are underwhelming, like Cox/Mihocek and McDonald/Fritsch vs. Hawkins/Cameron and Darling/Kennedy, so I do tend to agree.

110

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Tall players are also likely to not be playing at best 22 level at 18 years old, so their value isn't as readily apparent compared to the smalls.

110

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

It could prove difficult to win a premiership with this pattern.

010

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

I'd really appreciate it if you did. Half the battle with predictive modelling is finding data lmao

000

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

I've been turning over the idea of getting something like this up and running but I haven't modeled hockey before and may not have the time amongst my other projects. I'll give it some thought!

100

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

It's honestly pretty genius scheduling.

010

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Bright yellow on white is a sin.

000

Stattraction @stattraction.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

Biggest inside 50 deficit to win the match anyway, AFLW: 1. -23, Kangaroos (16) def. Cats (14), S7 EF 2. ***-22, Power (50) def. Hawks (49), 2024 SF*** =3. -20, Lions (38) def. Crows (20), 2021 GF =3. -20, Lions (33) def. Kangaroos (26), S7 Rd7 5. -19, Bulldogs (37) def. Demons (24), 2021 Rd4

030