parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 30/01/2026certainly a factor, and that's a good extension! i'll see what i can pull 010
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 30/01/2026tl;dr - explosive rates fell in 2025. I use a shift-share approach to understand why they're falling, and offer some thoughts on what this means going forward 1100
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 30/01/2026New on the substack: Where'd the explosives go? cfbgraphs.substack.com/p/footballno... 2153
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 23/01/2026DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD is now live on cfb-graphs.com. You can net success rates for all games in a week, or for a specific team, see their net success rate in every game. 1223
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 23/01/2026playing around with just making this a square. the rectangle does look better on social, IMO, but the square is nice too 3161
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 23/01/2026📊🏈COLLEGE FOOTBALL'S MOST EFFICIENT TEAMS 2025 FULL SEASON ↗️🟢: Good Offense, Good Defense ↖️🔵: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work ↘️🟡: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work ↙️🔴: We're Trying Our Best! 6296
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 23/01/2026📊🏈DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD? Season Net Success Rate FBS vs FBS 2025 ~DISASTER GRAPH~ 6648
Reposted by parker flemingRyan Nanni @celebrityhottub.bsky.social · 23/01/2026Today, for paid subscribers of Phantom Island: @statsowar.bsky.social joins me to talk about what roster lessons other teams can take from Indiana and Miami (and what red herrings we should avoid) podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...podcasts.apple.comNumbers & Words: The Roster Lessons to learn from Indiana and Miami with Parker Fleming (PREVIEW)Podcast Episode · Phantom Island · 01/23/2026 · 6m 0101
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 23/01/2026For Phantom Island subscribers, I'm back on with Ryan Nanni talking about the roster-building lessons we can learn from Indiana and Miami this year. Enjoy. 0111
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 21/01/2026i thought the graph was funny, but for those of you who are interested, Indiana had a negative net success rate: -0.0140 2241
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 21/01/2026📊🏈DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD? Net Success Rate in the National Championship 5303
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 15/01/2026Enjoyed this conversation with UM Professor Justin Angle and Montana's Chief Revenue Officer Marcus Welnel about the state of money in college athletics. Check out A New Angle wherever you listen to podcasts! 0100
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 08/01/2026🏈📊CFP SEMI-FINAL 1 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW MIAMI VS OLE MISS 031
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 31/12/2025🏈📊New Year's Eve Bowls Advanced Stats Previews RELIAQUEST BOWL: IOWA v VANDERBILT SUN BOWL: ARIZONA STATE v DUKE CITRUS BOWL: NEBRASKA v UTAH LAS VEGAS BOWL: TEXAS v MICHIGAN cfb-graphs.com 1102
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 29/12/2025a reminder that rushing overview cards are live on cfb-graphs.com 040
Reposted by parker flemingBill Connelly @espnbillc.bsky.social · 24/12/2025Tech’s defense against Oregon’s offense is gonna be some absolute heavyweight stuff. Can’t wait. 3804
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 24/12/20251000 yard rushers (regular season only) in FBS: 2025: 31 (4 QBs) 2024: 39 (5 QBs) 2023: 39 (2 QBs) 2022: 38 (1 QBs) 2021: 46 (2 QBs) 093
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 24/12/20251000 yard receivers (regular season only) in FBS: 2025: 11 2024: 21 2023: 24 2022: 23 2021: 30 3143
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 23/12/2025www.cfb-graphs.com/protected/ru... new feature 0110
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 09/12/2025"Wins Above What An Avg Team Would Be Expected to Have Against Your Schedule" v1 1 IND +7.21 2 UGA +6.75 3 OHST +6.31 4 TAMU +6.12 5 BYU +5.64 6 OKLA +5.55 7 ORE +5.50 8 BAMA +5.37 9 TT +5.31 10 OM +5.29 11 ND +4.79 12 VAN +4.62 13 MIA +4.29 14 UTA +4.16 15 MICH +4.16 16 TUL +4.05 ... 19 JMU +3.34 2224
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 08/12/2025📊🏈 College Football's Most Efficient Teams Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play Through the Regular Season 🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense 🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work 🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work 🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best 2175
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 01/12/2025🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 14 🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense 🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work 🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work 🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best! 1122
Reposted by parker flemingRyan Nanni @celebrityhottub.bsky.social · 26/11/20252. @espnbillc.bsky.social and @statsowar.bsky.social on strength of schedule podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...podcasts.apple.comNumbers & Words: How to Talk about Strength of Schedule with Bill Connelly and Parker FlemingPodcast Episode · Phantom Island · 10/31/2025 · 50m 2121
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 25/11/2025Obviously, good teams are going to be good across situations, but could serve as the basis for some personnel diagnostics for teams - why are we under/over-performing out of schedule? What groupings do those situations force us to be in that we need to supplement? 060
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 25/11/2025Teams like Ole Miss and Tennessee thrive in "off-schedule" plays, relatively, while teams like Oregon, USF, Oregon, A&M are capitalizing on "on-schedule" situations. 280
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 25/11/2025Was curious about which FBS offenses thrived in normal vs non-normal situations. Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s. ➡️Better "normal" efficiency ⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency 2293
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 25/11/2025definitely important to keep the "one way" caveat in there 130
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 25/11/2025One way to evaluate run games in college football is to compare scheme and OL (yards before contact) with RB ability (yards after contact): Further right => Better scheme/OL Further up => Better RB talent/ability 4344
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 25/11/2025yes, I would think of this more in terms of "how did arizona get to garbage time" 010
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 24/11/2025📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13 🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense 🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work 🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work 🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best! 0192
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 18/11/2025everything i post here is something i posted on X/twitter that i remembered to post over here too 1110
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 17/11/2025FIRST HALF NET SUCCESS RATE: South Carolina +.168 SECOND HALF NET SUCCESS RATE: Texas A&M +.391 1131
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 10/11/2025🏈📊WEEK 12 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS OKLAHOMA AT ALABAMA IOWA AT USC TEXAS AT GEORGIA NOTRE DAME AT PITT 1112
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 10/11/2025🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 11 🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense 🔵⬆️⬅️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work 🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work 🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best! 1192
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 10/11/2025🏈📊DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD? NET SUCCESS RATES IN WEEK 11 8457
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 05/11/2025🏈📊WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS Kent State @ Ball State NIU @ Toledo 171
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 05/11/2025How are offenses doing in creating quality drives and finishing those quality drives? Quality Drive Rate and Points Per Quality Drive FBS vs FBS through Week 10 2413
parker fleming @statsowar.bsky.social · 04/11/2025Texas: Lots of motion, rarely targeting the motioned player. West Virginia: When they motion, they're definitely throwing it to that guy 5211
