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Philip Brien

@statisticalphil.bsky.social
127 followers 41 following 84 posts

Researcher at the Commons Library. Public spending, local government, anything else that looks interesting.

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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Experimenting with 3D datavis in QGIS (this is using the Qgis2threejs plugin). The data shows railway station entries/exits for 2023/24. I'm enjoying the fact that this turns London into a horrifying gothic spire.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Interesting phrasing on today's Commons order paper. I haven't seen "the matter of" used for a general debate before - maybe it looked bad to say that the House "has considered giving every child the best start in life" as if it might say "nah, won't bother".
5. General Debate on giving every child the best start in life

Until 7.00pm (Standing Order No. 9(3))

The Prime Minister

That this House has considered the matter of giving every child the best start in life.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
On the investment side, defence is getting a larger increase than in recent years, but several departments will see fairly large decreases relative to existing budgets.
Chart showing the largest increases and decreases in annual average real terms growth in investment spending across the 2025 Spending Review period.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Here's a couple more charts to go with it. Relative to existing budgets, DSIT and the Single Intelligence Account are doing pretty well out of this; the FCDO is decidedly not (because of aid cuts).
Chart showing the five biggest increases and decreases in annual average real terms growth for day-to-day spending across the 2025 Spending Review period.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
On the investment spending side, it's the MOD that takes the lion's share, followed by Transport.
Chart showing that half of the increase in investment funding over the SR2025 period is going to defence.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Time for some initial Spending Review analysis! As expected, this is a very health-centric Spending Review - most of the day-to-day spending increase goes there. Depending how you count it, 20 or so departments will have to share about £5 billion of the remaining increases.
Chart showing day-to-day spending increases in the 2025 Spending Review. Over half of the increase is going to health.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
A little pope data for you all this fine morning. I like any dataset that goes back 2,000 years (although the chart only goes back to 1404). (Source: www.theguardian.com/news/datablo...)
Chart showing the ages at start and end of pontificate for all popes since Innocent VII. In general, papal reigns are getting longer and beginning later in life, although there's plenty of exceptions.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
That would be the so-called "Pole of Inaccessibility", which I reckon is just to the north-east of Birmingham (it's the blue flag on this map). There's not a lot in it, but Towcester (green star) is marginally closer to the Wash than the Pole is to any coastline.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
Today in Baffling Web Design Decisions: what on earth is going on with Glasgow City Council's year selection for their council meetings calendar?
A calendar of meetings for Glasgow City Council, from the council website. The year selection at the top is in no obvious order (the first four are 1998, 2004, 2010 and 2024).
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
Behold, a 91% rural local authority! (Why? Because the ONS defines "urban" as "within a built-up area which has a population of 10,000 or more", and "rural" as everything else. And in the 2021 Census, the City of London built-up area had a population of about 7,500.)
Skyline of the City of London. Source: GJMarshy, via Wikimedia Commons, CC-BY-SA.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 23/12/2024
The big news from 2024 that I missed at the time: HM Treasury have finally changed the font in their "official forecasts for the UK economy" document so that capital letters no longer have little "horns". (First image from March this year, second one from December.)
Screenshot from HM Treasury's "Forecasts for the UK economy: March 2024", showing odd visual artefacts on capital letters.Screenshot from HM Treasury's "Forecasts for the UK economy: December 2024", showing no visual artefacts on capital letters.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
FACT 4 (last one, thankfully): The boundaries of the Norfolk Broads National Park are pleasingly bonkers because water and reclaimed land don't play by your rules.
Map showing the boundaries of the Norfolk Broads National Park
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
FACT 3: The point on the British mainland where you are furthest from any National park is a field just north of Towcester (see red star on this map).
Map showing Towcester, with a small red star just off Watling Street to the north of the town
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
FACT 2: Eryri National Park (Snowdonia, as was) is the only one with a hole in it, because Blaenau Ffestiniog isn't part of the Park.
Map showing the boundaries of Eryri National Park
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Here are some National Park Facts (TM), occasioned by my having to look at the boundaries for something for work: FACT 1: The only non-contiguous National Park in Great Britain is Pembrokeshire Coast, which is divided into four main chunks and a few islands.
Map showing boundaries of Pembrokeshire Coast National Park
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 14/10/2024
Quick chart showing just how extraordinary last week's Test was. There have only been six occasions - ever - where a Test side scored as many runs in their first innings as Pakistan did and then went on to lose the match.
Scatter plot showing every time a Test side has scored at least 500 runs in their first innings since 1900. On most occasions, the team scoring this many goes on to win the match; on slightly fewer occasions the match is drawn; in a handful of cases they lose.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 11/10/2024
Shall we explore together why Google's "AI Overviews" are, um, somewhat less than helpful when you're looking for something specific? 🧵 (1/n)
Screenshot of a Google AI Overview for the search term "scotland office estimates memorandum 2024/25". Described in detail in later posts in the thread.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 01/10/2024
Going through old Commons Journals for something, and this keeps popping up: before the Royal Assent Act 1967, the Commons had to go and physically attend in the Lords for any bill to be passed. As this entry from November 1921 shows, this was often right in the middle of other business.
Screenshot from the Commons Journal. Key part of the text reads:

And a Motion being made, and the Question being proposed, That this House doth agree with the Committee in the said Resolution ;
Royal Assent. A Message was delivered by Lieutenant-General Sir William Pulteney, K.C.B., K.C.M.G., D.S.O., Gentleman Usher of the Black Rod :
Mr. Speaker,
The Lords authorised by virtue of His Majesty's Commission, for declaring His Royal Assent to several Acts agreed upon by both
Houses, desire the immediate attendance of this Honourable House in the House of Peers, to hear the Commission read.
Accordingly Mr. Speaker, with the House, went up to the House of Peers:- And having returned;
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 27/09/2024
Two things to note from the FCDO's latest aid stats: 1) In cash terms, the UK's aid budget in 2023 was the largest it's ever been; 2) If spending on refugees within the UK didn't count under OECD rules, aid spending would be below 2013 levels. (Source: FCDO, www.gov.uk/government/c...)
Line chart from 2009 to 2023, showing that UK aid spending went up to about £15 billion in 2019, fell after that, but as of 2023 is higher than ever in cash terms. A second line shows aid spending excluding spending within the UK on refugees - these lines are almost on top of each other for most of the period, but diverge sharply after 2021, and as of 2023 there's a gap of over £4 billion between them.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 26/09/2024
In an interesting but otherwise fairly unremarkable article about the North Korean women's football team, this sentence just comes out of nowhere. (article for the curious: www.theguardian.com/football/202...)
Screenshot of a paragraph from a Guardian article. Text is as follows:
Then came the great interruption. In 2011 five national‑team players tested positive for a rare steroid. [Highlight begins] The excuse offered was the use of a traditional medicine made from the glands of a musk deer, applied after the players were struck by lightning. [Highlight ends] Oddly enough, Fifa didn’t buy this and North Korea were banned from the 2015 World Cup, lost their ranking position, failed to qualify in 2019 partly as a result, then went into major isolation during the pandemic, re-emerging only towards the end of 2023.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 12/09/2024
If you had somehow invested in stamps in 1989, that investment would now be worth more than if you had invested in housing across the UK. (Sources: ONS series D7BT, HM Land Registry, priceofastamp.co.uk)
Line chart showing changes in price since January 1989 for houses in the UK, and first and second class stamps, compared to CPI inflation. Houses outpaced stamps until the global financial crisis, when second-class stamps caught up; as of 2023, first-class stamps are also above houses.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 06/09/2024
Just found this gloriously 90s cover on an old NAO report. I miss when the internet was this fresh and exciting thing. (Report comes from here, for reference: www.nao.org.uk/reports/gove...)
A beautifully 90s-styled cover of a National Audit Office report titled "Government on the Web" from 1999. A globe in the background is drawn in neon blue outlines; in the foreground there is a desktop PC with a chunky CRT monitor and a woman in a business suit with a no-nonsense short haircut, all composited onto each other with airbrushed outlines.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 14/08/2024
Great example of the counterintuitive nature of inflation stats in this morning's release. The main rate is largely up because of gas prices, but not because they've gone up - they haven't! It's because they haven't gone down as fast as they did a year ago.
Line chart showing changes in energy prices (gas and electricity) since March 2021. Both peaked in the winter of 2022 and have since partly fallen back, but as of July 2024 they remain 68% (gas) and 45% (electricity) above their March 2021 levels.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 02/08/2024
To give a little context to these pictures of Yusuf Dikec looking effortlessly cool: I used to shoot air pistol competitively, and there are really good reasons to kit yourself out like this. Short thread to follow...
Turkish pistol shooter Yusuf Dikec competing at the Paris 2024 Olympics, with little specialised equipment and his hand in his pocket.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 01/08/2024
In the latest round of "I can't believe there's data for that", it turns out that Redbridge is the animal carcass fly-tipping capital of England. (Source: Defra, Fly-tipping statistics for England, www.gov.uk/government/s...)
Bar chart showing animal carcass fly-tipping incidents per 10,000 people in 2022/23. Redbridge is top, at 25.7 incidents per 10,000, followed by Thurrock (16.9), Ealing (15.7), Brighton and Hove (14.1), Dartford (12.0) and all others (0.6).
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 17/07/2024
Important news from the State Opening of Parliament: the royal hat-on-a-stick is still present.
The King and Queen of the United Kingdom walking through the Royal Gallery at the State Opening of Parliament 2024, with the Cap of Maintenance being carried in front of them.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 09/07/2024
A minor point, but one you'd expect the BBC to get right: solemn affirmations were originally brought in for religious people who objected to swearing an oath (specifically Quakers), not non-believers.
Screenshot of a BBC News liveblog entry, text as follows:

What is swearing in?
published at 15:46

Parliament loves its traditions as afternoons like this show.

So, new and returning MPs begin as they are supposed to go on - with a ritual that dates back at least 400 years.

Before anyone can take part in a debate, vote or even sit down on the iconic green benches, they have to "swear in" with an oath of allegiance to the Crown.

They even risk not being paid if they don't take the oath in their first six months in the job.

Non-believers can instead make a "solemn affirmation" that leaves out any mention of God.

Anyone who refuses or forgets to swear in at the start of a new Parliament and tries to carry on regardless faces serious penalties.

They can be fined £500. And they lose their seat, too -"as if they were dead" say the rules, rather firmly.

So MPs start work after the election with a combination of two great British traditions: the oath of allegiance and a long queue.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 08/07/2024
Even after last week's election, you can still get from the Cotswolds to the Yorkshire Dales without ever leaving Conservative-held territory. (OK, to be fair you will have to swim across the Humber, because half the Humber Bridge is in the Labour-held Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice.)
Map of UK general election 2024 results, coloured by party, with a white line snaking across Conservative-held constituencies from the Cotswolds to the Yorkshire Dales
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 03/06/2024
Today in "articles you wouldn't get on most workplace intranets":
Screenshot of an intranet article headline: 
"Peregrine falcons on the parliamentary estate
What to do if you encounter a 'grounded' juvenile peregrine falcon"
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 30/05/2024
The Royal Proclamation is out - the 2019-24 Parliament is formally over.
Title of a royal proclamation:
BY THE KING

A PROCLAMATION

FOR DISSOLVING THE PRESENT PARLIAMENT AND DECLARING THE CALLING OF ANOTHER
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 24/05/2024
New broadband means new network name.
A mobile Internet screen, showing the connected WiFi network "The WiFi of Noble Character".
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 14/05/2024
Be honest, BBC News editors - you just wanted to use the phrase "ousting Joost", didn't you?
A BBC News website headline: "Eurovision organisers defend ousting Joost from contest"
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 08/05/2024
Updated version after @carlbaker.bsky.social pointed out that I'd mixed up a few constituency results. Ahem. Good thing it's still a draft.
Map of London Assembly constituencies, showing percentage point leads for Sadiq Khan and Susan Hall in the 2024 London mayoral election.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 08/05/2024
Work in progress to (possibly) include in an upcoming briefing. Sadiq Khan got more votes than Susan Hall in 9 of the 14 London Assembly constituencies, but also tended to win more heavily in those where he was ahead.
Map of London Assembly constituencies, showing percentage point leads for Sadiq Khan and Susan Hall in the 2024 London mayoral election.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 01/05/2024
Great Britain, split up into sectors by nearest railway station (calculated using Voronoi polygons in case you're interested). Colours are randomised, which gives quite a nice "psychedelic stained glass window" effect.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 30/04/2024
Based on the headline of a Guardian article (www.theguardian.com/travel/2024/...), I thought I'd see where in England is the furthest from a train. As far as I can tell, this chunk of Northumberland is the only bit of mainland England that is more than 30km from a railway line.
Map showing a rough rectangle, roughly 10km x 12km, in Northumberland National Park (just north of the A68).
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 26/04/2024
Experimenting with Democracy Club's candidate data (democracyclub.org.uk). Next Thursday there will be four local elections with 1⅓ candidates per seat, where the electorate gets to decide if the dominant local party gets three seats in that ward or merely two.
Table showing the least competitive local elections in England on 2 May 2024. Each ward has 3 seats available with only four candidates. They are:
Warrington: Poulton North (3 Labour, 1 Conservative)
North Tyneside: Camperdown (3 Lab, 1 Green)
Epping Forest: Waltham Abbey South & Rural (3 Con, 1 Lab)
Epping Forest: Waltham Abbey West (3 Con, 1 Lab)
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 23/04/2024
To celebrate NASA managing to revive Voyager 1, a quick chart on its apparent speed relative to Earth. Because of earth's orbit, we're actually catching up to it for about 3 months of the year. From tomorrow, it starts heading away again!
Line chart showing Voyager 1's speed relative to Earth. This is basically a sine wave with a period of 1 year, ranging from nearly 4m km per day to nearly -1m km per day.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 15/04/2024
Quick experiment with OS Terrain 50 open data, rendered in Aerialod (vertical scale is heavily exaggerated). Not sure how I'd use this for work, but...pretty!
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 15/04/2024
This is fun! "-borough" vs "-burg(h)" is an interesting comparison. I suspect a Viking connection.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 12/04/2024
You may have seen the two big MRPs last week from Survation and YouGov, both predicting hefty Labour majorities at the next election. As this shows, behind the headlines their predictions have some interesting differences.
Chart showing the forecast Labour majority for each seat in GB, according to recent MRP models from Survation and YouGov. Both agree on Labour winning a majority of seats, but YouGov thinks the vote will be more polarised (higher margins of both victory and loss) than Survation, and predicts a smaller overall majority.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 12/04/2024
Data on average happiness levels in Great Britain. I love this because although you can see some small movements (people got slightly more unhappy in the lockdowns at the end of 2020), the main story is that when you ask a British person how happy they are, they say "err...I dunno, about 7?"
Line chart showing mean scores for happiness out of 10, as measured by the ONS. Apart from a few small movements (particularly a small dip near the end of 2020), the line stays pretty firmly on 7 between March 2020 and March 2024.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 10/04/2024
Provisional aid spending data for 2023 is now out from the FCDO. Despite the cut to 0.5% of GNI, aid spending is now higher in cash terms than ever before, largely because of spending on refugees within the UK.
A column chart showing UK aid spending from 1970 to 2023. The amounts began to rise sharply in the 2000s, levelled off in 2020, fell in 2021 with the cut to spending 0.5% of GNI, then increased sharply thereafter as in-donor refugee spending went up.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 22/03/2024
Noticed a lot of hyphenated surnames popping up in the news recently and wondered about the trend. Based on IMDb's dataset of people, hyphenating your surname has been getting steadily more popular since about the 1940s.
Line chart showing the proportion of surnames in IMDb's name.basics dataset that contained at least one hyphen, by year of birth between 1900 and 2000. The trend has steadily risen from about 1% in 1940 to nearly 2.5% in 2000.
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Philip Brien @statisticalphil.bsky.social · 20/03/2024
Highlights/lowlights of this morning's ONS inflation release: - Olive oil is about 39% more expensive than it was this time last year - I wasn't imagining it when getting quotes the other day, car insurance really has gone up by about a third - But gas and electricity are way down
Chart showing the % change in prices for specific categories over the past 12 months, as measured by the ONS.
Olive oil: 38.9%
Car insurance: 35.5%
Sugar: 17.6%
Cigarettes: 15.3%
Books: 13.3%
Newspapers: 12%
Pork: 9.8%
Chocolate: 8.9%
Tea: 7.2%
Funeral services: 7.2%
Hairdressing (women): 4.4%
New cars: 3.1%
Coffee: 0.1%
Motorbikes: -3.6%
Second-hand cars: -7.3%
Butter: -7.6%
Electricity: -13%
Gas: -26.5%
Book-binding & ebooks: -38.1%
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