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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Oh yeah, LNG market has been pretty quiet for the last 4 months

Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

I actually think we may all agree on this — I call LNG the champagne of fuels (who says I can’t say cringe things here too?)

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

Meanwhile, stocks for turbine suppliers have rallied

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

This is how the turbine shortage could play out: Without gas, developing nations may be forced to keep using coal for longer Meanwhile, developed countries may be pushed to more quickly adopt solar and wind farms backed up with batteries

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

The good news is that suppliers are taking step to lift production capacity GE Vernova announced plans to expand capacity to 70-80 heavy-duty gas turbines a year from 2026, up from 55 turbines Mitsubishi Heavy is urgently seeking to add gas-turbine capacity in the next 2 years

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

This is also driving up the cost of power plants A new combined cycle-gas plant cost about $800/kW in 2021 Now it is as high as $2,800/kW So in developed nations relying on more gas, power prices could also rise even higher

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

Turbine manufacturers also are favoring projects in developed nations, or tied to power requirements for major companies, because of the reduced risks of financing shortfalls or complex approvals

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

Anyway, so as rich nations scoop up more gas turbines that risks leaving fewer for emerging nations (which had adopted aggressive gas power strategies) Lets take Vietnam. They want to build at least 22 gas-fired power plants by 2030. This isnt an AI boom thing, its just growth

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

🇺🇸 US power demand is slated to grow 25% by 2030, a reversal of relatively flat consumption since 2010. This is due in part to the AI boom, and data centers are turning to gas to feed energy needs

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

Many countries are shifting from coal to gas as part of their decarbonization efforts. Solar and wind are now the cheapest sources in most regions, but even paired with batteries they cannot yet provide continuous supply that coal or gas do

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

So why are orders for turbines surging? There are a number of reasons Power demand is growing from consumers and industries as households, transportation and manufacturing are electrifying. Emerging nations are using more air conditioning Plus, the AI boom

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

The three suppliers have tight control over their IP. You cant easily enter the space because you need decades of testing and experience While China is trying to develop their own turbine, theyre still far behind. China depends on equipment from the big three

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

That history, along with a few decades of lackluster sales and plateauing power requirements in the US and Europe, meant the suppliers were largely unprepared when electricity consumption accelerated after the pandemic, ushering in the new race for turbines

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

Yet that boom was short-lived as gas prices climbed and the resulting downturn triggered a wave of industry consolidation that concentrated manufacturing capability with the current three main suppliers And so today there are really only three suppliers of the biggest turbines

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

The technology’s deployment surged in the 1990s with the US power market’s deregulation. Gas turbines were favored for their speed of installation and efficiency, triggering a rush in orders

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

Since the 1960s, the hot gas exiting the process has often been harnessed to generate steam and power a second turbine, creating the combined cycle design that’s more efficient at converting fuel into electricity and has become the standard in large power plants

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

So, what is a gas turbine? Its a 500-ton machine that is just like the jet engine, but to produce electricity instead of flight Natural gas is burned to spin blades at speeds higher than 3,000 rotations a minute to powers a connected generator

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

The crux of the issue is that the gas turbine market is dominated by three companies -- Siemens Energy, GE Vernova, Mitsubishi Heavy Theyve been caught flat footed by an acceleration in orders over the last few years. And they aren’t able (or willing) to quickly boost output

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

GAS TURBINE SHORTAGE 🚨⚡ Orders for turbines for natural gas power plants are vastly outpacing supply, threatening the world’s ability to keep pace with rising electricity demand 🧵 Thread on how we got here and what it means for power-hungry nations www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 01/10/2025

NEW LNG IMPORTER SOON? 🇳🇿🚢 New Zealand moves forward with plans to build a new LNG import terminal as domestic gas production falters www.1news.co.nz/2025/10/01/g...

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 01/10/2025

Weak Chinese LNG demand is good news for Europe 🇨🇳🤝🇪🇺 📉 China's imports are poised to fall 22% in Sept due in part to milder weather, rising domestic output. China is the world's top LNG buyer 👍 That'll free-up supply for gas-hungry rivals elsewhere (like those in Europe)

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 01/10/2025

The facility is ending a 2 month planned maintenance. Likely related to that?

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 01/10/2025

AI data centers are sending US power bills soaring, Bloomberg analysis shows 🇺🇸⚡📈 Wholesale prices more than doubled since 2020 in some markets, but those increases arent equal Of the nodes where prices rose, over 70% are within 50 miles of significant data center activity

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

MANY SUCH CASES: Louisiana’s utility regulator approved Entergy’s plan to build three new gas-fired plants to power Meta’s data center

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 25/01/2025

Power demand on the largest US grid is poised to surge thanks to the AI boom 🇺🇸 ⚡️📈 PJM Interconnection, which manages the 13-state system stretching from Washington DC to Illinois, expects peak summer demand to jump by 38% by 2035 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

More countries are looking to buy US oil & gas to make Trump happy 🇺🇸🛢️ 🇰🇷 South Korea's trade minister said the country will consider buying more to reduce their trade surplus with the US ⚠️ Vietnam, EU & Taiwan are considering to do the same to avoid Trump's proposed tariffs

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

Vietnam aims to complete its first nuclear power plant by 2030 to boost energy security 🇻🇳❤️☢️ 📝 Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh ordered the REMARKABLY ambitious target today ⚠️ This comes after Vietnam was hit with blackouts in 2023 due to hot weather, coal power malfunctions

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

More LNG ships divert to Europe in search of better profits 🚢🚢 🇪🇺 At least 6 ships changed course away from Asia to Europe since last week 📈 Europe needs more LNG after losing Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine 🙅‍♂️ Asia demand is subdued as winter ends (and prices too high)

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

This person isn’t me! Report them if you can please bsky.app/profile/s-st...

bsky.app

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

More LNG vessels are diverting to Europe to take advantage of better prices 🚢 📈 Four diversions from Asia to Europe in the last week. Europe needs LNG to replace the lost Russian pipeline gas supply via Ukraine 📉 Asia doesn't need the LNG as demand remains subdued

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 11/01/2025

The US sanctioned two of Russia’s active LNG export plants 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 ⚠️ 📝The restrictions targeted Portovaya and Vysotsk, Russia’s smaller LNG plants 🚢 The US (the world’s biggest LNG exporter) has been focused on halting Russia’s plans to expand gas sales

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

China will keep tapping coal 🇨🇳❤️🪨 📈 China's top industry coal group expects output to rise to 1.5% in 2025, the ninth consecutive annual increase 🔥 Demand also seen rising 1% ⛏️ China has expanded mining capacity so that supply runs ahead of demand www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

China to Keep Tapping Coal to Meet Its Energy Security Needs

Cheap coal will continue to provide the ballast for China’s energy security in the coming year, according to the country’s top industry grouping.

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

The UK’s wind turbines have overtaken gas plants for the first time as the number one source of power 🇬🇧🌬️ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

Thanks for joining! Always nice to see you on the big screen

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

Correct. Most of the vessels in its fleet go to other ports

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

Japan’s shipowners plan to spend $6 billion to boost its fleet of LNG tankers through 2030 🇯🇵 🚢 💰 Top three shipowners to increase fleet 40% by end of decade 👉 This big investments will ensure a stable supply of energy and profit from the growing market

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

US gas traders checking the weather at end of 2024

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 04/01/2025

Biden will order a ban on new offshore oil and gas drilling 🇺🇸🛢️ Unlike other executive actions that can be easily undone, Biden’s declaration is rooted in a 72-year-old law that gives the White House wide discretion to permanently protect US waters www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

Biden to Ban New Oil Drilling Over Vast Stretch of US Atlantic, Pacific Waters

President Joe Biden is set to order a ban on new offshore oil and gas development across some 625 million acres of US coastal territory, ruling out the sale of drilling rights in Atlantic and Pacific ...

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 03/01/2025

Ok, fair fair. I was goofing on the how some policymakers saying they could replace Russian gas with US LNG

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 03/01/2025

Austria says other natural gas sources are compensating for the loss of Russian fuel via Ukraine 🇦🇹 👍 Gas imports via Germany and Italy are sufficient, says Austria‘s grid manager “Domestic supply to end users is currently being managed from imports, storage and production.”

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

Europe has been shifting away from Russian pipe gas since 2022 But the closure of the Ukraine route, which survived the Cold War and massive regime change, piles more uncertainty ontop of Europe's energy dilemma And it signals a more volatile (and potentially expensive) future

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

Russia provided half of Germany’s gas in 2021. It's now (basically) zero Due in part to the loss of Russian energy and other factors, Germany's economy is 5% smaller than it would have been if the pre-pandemic growth trend had been maintained www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

“Cheap" Russian gas was the backbone of some European economies for essentially half a century That's now ending. And Europe is set to face higher-for-longer gas prices

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

While the route accounts for just 5% of Europe’s needs, nations are still reeling from the aftershocks of an energy crisis Europe is now increasingly exposed to market volatility as it leans on LNG imports Gas prices are up 50% year-on-year (but still far from the 2022 record)

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

The Ukraine route now isn't sending Russian gas to Europe. And it isn't clear if/when that will be resolved Both sides don't seem near a new deal anytime soon

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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

Ukraine was still the main route for Russian pipeline gas to Europe until about a decade ago with the start of Nord Stream and then Turkstream Contract disputes after the invasion of Ukraine, coupled with the Nord Stream explosion, resulted in total flows falling since 2022

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