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Statistics, Politics and Policy

@sppjournal.bsky.social
375 followers 44 following 56 posts

Applying statistical analysis to (public) policy: www.degruyter.com/journal/key/spp/h…

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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
How can cocoa prices in Ghana be predicted more accurately? In issue 1/2026, Mashud Wahab, Abubakari Abdul Ghaniyyu, Yakubu Amadu, and Suleman Nasiru use 15 machine learning models with hybrid decomposition methods to forecast cocoa prices. Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...
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Predicting Cocoa Prices in Ghana Using Machine Learning and Decomposition Based Hybrid Models
The contribution of cocoa to the economies of countries, especially producing countries cannot be understated. However, volatility in the prices of commodities affect all stakeholders in the productio...
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
How do young statistics graduates in Algeria transition into the labor market? In issue 1/2026, Chellai Fatih studies time-to-employment using a Cox model and finds language skills and cohort effects strongly shape job entry speed. Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...
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Time-To-Employment and Labor Market Integration of Young Statistics Graduates in Algeria: A Duration Model Approach
This study investigates the professional integration of young applied statistics graduates in Algeria using the Cox proportional hazards model. Analyzing time-to-employment duration, the study identif...
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
What role does education beyond secondary school play in shaping wage inequality in the Philippines? In issue 1/2026, Maria Francesca Tomaliwan and Mariel Monica Sauler examine how further education affects wage differentials before and during the K–12 reform. Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...
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The Role of Beyond-Secondary Levels of Education in Explaining Wage Differentials Across the Philippine Wage Distribution
The K-12 curriculum was implemented in the Philippines in 2013 and took effect in 2015. Despite the additional 2 years of secondary education, recent studies show a decline in returns to higher educat...
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
What drives Indonesia’s defense spending? How do economic and regional factors shape it? In issue 1/2026, Muchamad Bachtiar, Bambang Irwanto, Irdam Ahmad, Zainal Abidin Sahabuddin, and Trismadi Trismadi analyze Indonesia’s defense spending using an ARDL model. Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...
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Defense Spending Under Pressure: An ARDL Study of Indonesia’s Economic and Strategic Realities
This study examines the economic and geopolitical determinants of Indonesia’s defense expenditure from 1984 to 2022 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to capture both short-term and long-term dynamics. Recognizing the contextual relevance of Indonesia’s Total People’s Defense and Security System (SISHANKAMRATA), the analysis relies on conventional military expenditure data (% of GDP) due to the absence of consolidated multi-ministerial records. The results show that in the short run, defense spending is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shocks: inflation, exchange rate volatility, and foreign direct investment exert negative effects, while debt, trade openness, and regional military expenditure strengthen budgetary allocations. In the long run, macroeconomic fundamentals (debt, growth, inflation, and foreign investment) together with neighboring countries’ military spending drive defense expenditure, whereas regional average spending has a negative effect and U.S. military expenditure does not show a structural impact. These findings underscore the dual pressures of fiscal fragility and regional security competition in shaping Indonesia’s defense budget. Policy implications highlight the importance of inflation-adjusted and exchange rate–resilient budgeting, sustainable financing mechanisms such as defense bonds or a Defense Sovereign Wealth Fund (D-SWF), and deeper ASEAN defense cooperation to balance security needs with fiscal discipline. This study contributes a macro-level perspective on defense economics under conditions of institutional fragmentation, offering a framework for future comparative and panel-based research across decentralized security systems.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
How resilient are civil liberties in times of external threat, and how does political polarisation shape them? In his contribution to SPP's Issue 1/2026, Afiq bin Oslan shows: Partisan cues matter, but do not clearly increase the willingness to restrict liberties. Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...
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Liberties and Partisanship under Straining US-China Relations
How does support for civil liberties prevail in times of external threat? Simultaneously, how does internal polarisation affect how tightly citizens hold to these liberties? We argue citizens may follow partisanship in evaluating foreign threats, supporting erosion of liberties if co-partisans advocate it in favour of national security. We conduct a survey experiment on a representative sample of 3281 US citizens, treating them with vignettes of potential conflict with China attributed to randomly varying partisanship. We interact such treatments with respondents’ own partisanship, then measure support for various civil liberties. Our findings yield mixed results and we are unable to decisively demonstrate that co-partisans are better at encouraging the surrender of civil liberties. This is congruent with other recent research that also shows partisan polarisation may neither lighten nor worsen in times of external threat.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
📢 Introducing you to our issue 1/2026 in the coming days and weeks. You are welcome to delve into articles from around the globe 🌍 To start off, we share this issue's Editors' Note by Editor in Chief Uwe Wagschal and Managing Editors @judithreinbold.bsky.social & @ronaldschleehauf.bsky.social.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Which demographic groups are most at risk for rapid Tuberculosis onset? In issue 3/2025, Ernest Zamanah and Suleman Nasiru employ a Bayesian framework to analyze Tuberculosis cases in the Bolgatanga Municipality, Ghana. Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...
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Bayesian Analysis of Tuberculosis Cases in Bolgatanga Municipality, Ghana–West Africa
Tuberculosis (TB) represents a major threat to global health security and is currently the world most deadly infectious disease. TB is noted to affect people of all age groups and exposure to the disease has been shown to exhibit variation in the risk of infection across different factors. This study was therefore carried out to identify possible disease associations of some risk factors in relation to time until onset of TB among TB infected individuals in the Bolgatanga Municipality of the Upper East Region of Ghana. To this end, secondary data on time until onset of TB was obtained from the Bolgatanga Regional Hospital of the Upper East Region of Ghana and used for statistical analysis. In order to obtain appropriate underlying disease associations, the Bayesian approach to the modelling of survival time was employed in the statistical analyses. Thus, different parametric models including; skew normal, lognormal, shifted lognormal, exponential, Weibull and Fréchet models were fitted to the TB data within the Bayesian framework. The Weibull was the overall best fitted model. Based on the estimation results of the Bayesian Weibull regression model; individuals with no education, individuals with diabetes and males were identified as high-risk groups with shorter time frame for the onset of TB in the Bolgatanga Municipality. The study was concluded by indicating the need for Ghana Health Service to institute targeted interventions aimed at preventing and controlling the TB with special emphasis to the high-risk groups in the Bolgatanga Municipality.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Can international remittances safeguard public debt sustainability? In issue 3/2025, Anjana Sabu and Vineeth Mohandas analyze the financial landscape of Kerala, India and find deteriorating debt sustainability despite substantial remittance inflows. Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...
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The Impact of International Remittances on Public Debt Sustainability in Kerala: Evidence from the FMOLS Approach
Remittances from Kerala’s migrant workers and professionals constitute a vital financial inflow, surpassing their relative significance in most other Indian states. With public debt nearing 60 % of NS...
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
What are key drivers of political instability in West Africa? In issue 3/2025, Richard Gbemudia and Stanley Akachukwu highlight GDP per capita, military expenditure, and unemployment as decisive factors to explain why only some ECOWAS nations experienced coups. Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...
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Determinants of Political Instability in ECOWAS (1991–2022)
This study examined GDP per Capita, military expenditure, trade openness capital formation, inflation and unemployment as determinants of political instability in ECOWAS from 1991 to 2022. Four countr...
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
How do emotional reactions to protective policies vary across the political spectrum? In issue 3/2025, Marta Penczek-Zapała and @kasiahamer.bsky.social of @polskaakademianauk.bsky.social analyze the emotions evoked by protective policies in Poland. Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...
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Emotional Reactions to Protective Policies on the Political Spectrum
The need for safety is one of the basic human needs. States implement different protective policies to fulfil the task of granting safety to their citizens. Aim of the present study conducted online o...
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
How do emotions influence political responsiveness? In his contribution to our issue 3/2025, Georg Wenzelburger of @politicsunisaar.bsky.social argues that by focusing on preference-policy linkages, previous research has often underestimated the role of emotions. Read more: doi.org/10.1515/spp-...
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Bringing Emotions into the Study of Responsiveness: The Case of Protective Policies
Research on representation and responsiveness is based on the idea that voters have concerns about certain policy problems and that representatives respond to these concerns with concrete policy outpu...
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
📢 Call for Papers – Special Issue on The Politics of Public Finance Guest Editor: Bernhard Kittel 📅 Submission deadline: October 31st, 2026 📩 Submit your manuscript here: mc.manuscriptcentral.com/dgspp 📧 Questions? Contact us at: spp@politik.uni-freiburg.de
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
📢 Call for Papers – Special Issue on China: Politics and Policy Guest Editors: @ettensperger.bsky.social & Lars Konheiser 📅 Submission deadline: January 16, 2026 📩 Submit your manuscript here: mc.manuscriptcentral.com/dgspp 📧 Questions? Contact us at: spp@politik.uni-freiburg.de
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
In issue 1/2025, Muchamad Bachtiar, Irdam Ahmad, Zainal Abidin Sahabuddin, and Trismadi Trismadi conduct a meta-analysis of military expenditure determinants across 15 studies. They find war, ongoing spending, and external threats to be key drivers - while national conditions correlate negatively.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
In issue 1/2025, Osafu Augustine Egbon and Ezra Gayawan present a spatio-temporal model of violent conflict and fatalities in Nigeria. Using a Cox point process and SPDE approach, they analyze georeferenced conflict data to identify regional patterns and high-risk areas.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
In our issue 1/2025, Aaron Cooke and John Vivian develop a restricted data-rich dynamic factor model to evaluate vaccination efficacy during the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. Their model can be used for other populations, as they provide an open-source Python package.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
In issue 1/2025, John O’Reilly proposes the County-Elector Plan to revitalize the Electoral College. Implementable by states, it would avoid a constitutional change and future gerrymandering. Thereby, electoral competition would be shifted from a few battleground states to several hundred counties.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
📢 Call for Papers – Special Issue on Elections We welcome contributions on: 🔹 Electoral outcomes & voting behavior 🔹 Campaigns & debates 🔹 Electoral systems & reforms 🔹 Comparative perspectives 🔹 Innovations in electoral analysis 📩 Submit your manuscript here: lnkd.in/e23ee9ik
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
Issue 1/2025 of SPP is available online! It features 4 articles showing the power of quantitative methods in addressing some of the most pressing political challenges: 📌 Electoral Reform 📌 Pandemic Response 📌 Conflict Analysis 📌 Military Expenditure Access: www.degruyterbrill.com/journal/key/...
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
What drives GDP growth in Ghana? Emmanuel Amoako Koranteng, Gideon Mensah Engmann, and Dioggban Jakperik apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyze key macroeconomic variables in our issue 3/2024: real exchange rates, manufacturing, and government expenditure positively impact GDP growth.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Declining U.S. influence, particularly in Asia, and rising Chinese engagement: in their contribution to our issue 3/2024, Elizabeth G., Steven Kim, Nicholas Sobrepena, Stone Goethe, and Eric E. analyze media coverage across 96 African and Asian nations and find geopolitical influence.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
How can we better predict municipal solid waste? In issue 3/2024, Chellai Fatih explores the power of hybrid modeling techniques to forecast municipal solid waste (MSW) generation across OECD countries. The article's findings highlight the need for data-driven waste management policies.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
How predictable are election outcomes? In issue 3/2024, Richard J. Heggen and Alfred G. Cuzán develop a geometric model to analyze 1,825 elections across five federal democracies. The model incorporates the rate of incumbency decay and predicts election outcomes within a 2–3 point margin.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Can Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) capture party relations? In our issue 3/2024, Felix Wieland analyzes data from 63 editions of the German Wahl-O-Mat to track party proximities. His findings suggest that design changes have significantly altered measured proximities between major parties.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Talknice Saungweme, Glenda Maluleke, and Nicholas M. Odhiambo of the University of South Africa use a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to study the impact of financial development on Mauritius' economic growth. The results reveal an asymmetric relationship between the two.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Marwah S. Siam, Hussein A. Sayed, and Laila O. El-Zeini of Cairo University apply a mixture-function mortality model to examine lifespan length and variation in Egypt from 1950 to 2021. The study reveals increasing longevity and a declining variation in age at death over time.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Addressing the pension conundrum, Gustavo De Santis of Università di Firenze explores a novel approach, called IPAYGO. Including demographic and economic challenges, like differential mortality and low fertility rates, IPAYGO offers a sustainable and equitable approach to pensions.
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
The impact of an aging electorate on democratic processes is at the core of Christopher-David Preclik's introduction of "political adultism". He describes "the socially-accepted interpersonal, structural, and institutional discrimination of young and younger people in politics".
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Statistics, Politics and Policy @sppjournal.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Is Intending to have children rightist? This is explored by @brunoarpino.bsky.social and @ryomogi.bsky.social who find that individuals on the far-right of the political spectrum are more likely to express positive intentions to have children, controlling for socio-demographic and economic factors.
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