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Sub-Prime Goals

@spgoals7.bsky.social
294 followers 127 following 160 posts

Football fan writing on finance in football/sport. Have worked in banking, venture capital and most recently as a CFO. Substack: spgoals.substack.com

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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 5m
There’s been a £1.7bn financial gap between the two Manchester clubs over the last 20 years due to their owners. ICYMI this week, #MUFC now have a potential path to change their future. If you want a change from reading about City, this might be one for you 👇
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 20h
Earlier this week, United's loan notes set out an intended path for #MUFC's future Today, how to there: cash operating costs down £53mn and a cost base pointed at revenue. For the first time since 2022, EBITDA is converting fully into cash. Five takeaways from United's FY26 results bit.ly/4hDtlNr
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Beyond the cost cuts: what United's FY26 results really show
Wages down £63mn in two years, cash conversion for the first time since 2022, and constrained by UEFA's rules. Five takeaways on how INEOS are running the club.
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No Question About That @nqatpod.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Buried in last week's full year financials a real path to paying off the Glazer's LBO debt alongside stadium financing. Plus some fun with City. w/ @spgoals7.bsky.social Audio - tr.ee/nqatpodcast Ad-free - tr.ee/nqatpatreon Video - tr.ee/nqatyoutube
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
🧱 🏟️ Can INEOS clear Manchester United's debt and build a New Old Trafford? United's new $550mn loan points to a clear window from June 2029, and a change of control clause written around INEOS. What it means for ownership and stadium funding 👉 bit.ly/4dc7ATK
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Can INEOS clear Manchester United’s debt and build a New Old Trafford: what the $550mn loan reveals
We’ve been given the clearest signal on Manchester United’s future
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No Question About That @nqatpod.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
United's full year financials. Prepping for investment? Record revenue, costs under control, debt ugly but manageable. Plus INEOS finances and ownership speculation. @spgoals7.bsky.social Audio - tr.ee/nqatpodcast Ad-free - tr.ee/nqatpatreon Video - tr.ee/nqatyoutube
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Latest breakdown on #MUFC financial results 👉 bit.ly/4xMuGYt United beat their raised financial guidance and cash flow improved. It appears they are trying to not live off their credit facility, and be cash generative ahead of their stadium build. FY27 Guidance looks cautious in a UCL year.
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FIRST TAKE: Manchester United prepping for investment?
FY27 guidance is cautious but they are signalling strong cash flow profile
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Prudent, Punishable or Prepping for Investment? 📈 United will print strong '26/27 financial guidance (my forecast in article). #MUFC will have some financial flexibility, regardless of UCL qualification. We'll also see how land purchase, player sales impacted the window. More here 👉 bit.ly/4AflTRl
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MUFC FY26 results preview: Prudent, Punishable or Prepping for Investment
Cash position will drive fan sentiment, EBITDA will drive investor appetite
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No Question About That @nqatpod.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
New United Inc football finance pod! Digging in to the economics of the transfer market and why Premier League clubs acted the way they did with @spgoals7.bsky.social Audio - tr.ee/nqatpodcast Ad-free - tr.ee/nqatpatreon Video - tr.ee/nqatyoutube
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Latest United Inc now out...filmed pre Hull. So if you need a lift there's plenty of healthy optimism in there 😅 as well as: - Liverpool deal valuation and what it means for them and #MUFC - United's window and what can be done in the last week - How uncompetitive is SCR?
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Villa can exit their UEFA settlement agreement early due to the Rogers sale. It may revise thinking on whether the rules actually hold challenger clubs back (probably won't). Bridging the £100mn revenue gap to the European elite, needs more time though. Full analysis here 👉 bit.ly/3TyvwK1
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Aston Villa can exit their UEFA Settlement Agreement early
A talent pipeline and building a global brand must now be the focus
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
What is New Old Trafford worth and how it can be financed I look at potential size of New OT prize and what that may mean for funding options. Potential investors will look at stadium & #MUFC value. Putting together a financing package will be tricky, but not impossible. New report 👉 bit.ly/4vHFp67
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What is New Old Trafford worth and how it can be financed
Debt, equity or hybrid investors may look at the value of the stadium project or whole club
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Latest United Inc. out to fill the gaps between World Cup games. We go through: - Will #MUFC financial debt actually not change after this financing round? - Amazon doc and the long term strategy that might be behind it. - United won’t really save £10mn from Amorim going to Milan, will they?
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Bouaddi being just 18 has broken my brain.
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
United have switched to lower cost debt which could limit headline interest cost increases. As previously discussed, more cash = more flexibility to do deals. +ve/-ve financial risks haven't changed. The march to being self-funded again continues, its critical for a new stadium. bit.ly/4e6huXQ
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Baby steps to the bigger goal United’s finances are slowly improving, but full financial stability isn’t secure. This window the club are making the same bet last. Get the right Men’s players at the right cost for the near and long term. It’s critical for the financial plan. bit.ly/4afZOXe
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Baby steps to the bigger goal
United’s finances are slowly moving in the right direction, but player recruitment and cost control remains critical for the rebuild
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
#MUFC full interim report out. £110mn repayment on credit facility post year end. £250mn available going into the summer (consistent with my forecasts). £360mn net transfer fees owed, £209mn due in a yr. Likely fall by next results. Cash a constraint but easing. £2.7mn profit on Hojlund sale.
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
🚨 📉 #CFC will likely breach their UEFA Settlement agreement in 2025/26 or 2026/27 Will their elite players risk 2 years without UCL football? Will Chelsea pay them more to stay? This will define Xabi Alonso’s remit, Chelsea's long term valuation and ownership structure 👇 bit.ly/3Q5ADQo
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Chelsea’s Reset: Why the Next Two Years Could Define the Clearlake Era
Will Chelsea pay their stars to stay upon a UEFA breach and no Champions League football at the bridge until 2028/29
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Latest thoughts on #MUFC financial results available for you already with @nqatpod . We go through: - What drove the uplift in profit expectations for this season - Cash flow dynamics and why United still need to be conscious of it - Player trading (pre news on Gordon, but some thoughts on Bayern).
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
🔴⚪️⚫️ United were budgeting for Europa League this season and Carrick helped them outperform. Cash management now the dish of the day at #MUFC Consistent UCL qualification needed to continue the rebuild. READ MORE 👉 bit.ly/4nVTYA7
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FIRST TAKE: Carrick drives better near term financials, cash constraints still present
Cash flow management continues to be the dish of the day at Old Trafford
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
This is how much United should spend this summer UCL qualification was the minimum #MUFC needed for their summer rebuild. They've got £400mn+ headroom to spend but a lot of risk to manage. I think they should spend £250mn. They could go to £300mn in a positive scenario. Latest here👉 bit.ly/3PmrVwQ
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This is how much United should spend this summer
United have qualified for the Champions League, it is a platform to rebuild from
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
They're going to be dancing on the tables at Stamford Bridge sipping Moet as the post goal music plays (when #CFC score). Chelsea announced Moet Hennessy as Champagne supplier and a new 80 seat hospitality venue in collaboration with Bagatelle this week. www.chelseafc.com/en/news/arti...
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Chelsea and Bagatelle unveil exclusive matchday hospitality experience at Stamford Bridge
Chelsea Football Club, in partnership with world-renowned hospitality brand Bagatelle, today announces the creation of the Bagatelle Experience at Chelsea Football Club, a new exclusive 80-seat hospit...
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
📉📈Can Chelsea’s financial model work? #CFC needs a £5.6bn valuation for a direct ROI. That's increasingly reliant on a new or bigger stadium. Near term, losses need to fall by £270mn so UEFA don’t expel them from Europe - which will probably need record player trading profits. bit.ly/4ctJliL
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Can Chelsea's financial model work?
Chelsea need to reduce losses quickly to carry on playing in Europe, and then get a bigger stadium
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Latest finance pod now out, we look at #MUFC finances in the context of what's going on elsewhere in Premier League finance world. Teaser, there are a fair few issues elsewhere.
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
CONFIRMED: Spurs' underlying loss significantly worsened in '24/25 24/25 pre-tax losses at £121mn. Non-wage operating costs up £42m, roughly half of the worsening losses. Last week's piece highlighting this bit.ly/4bIXRCK Underlying wage bill up 12% too. www.tottenhamhotspur.com/media/qopovw...
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
📉Spur of the moment: £350mn at stake #THFC 24/25 pre-tax losses were £128mn (UEFA) They'll have a £350mn hole to comply with Championship P&S rules Cash flow was already pressured. If ENIC need to provide more, will the Lewis family provide it all or will Levy be asked for his share? bit.ly/4bIXRCK
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Spur of the Moment, the Cost of a Season: £350m at Stake
UEFA showed Tottenham's losses are widening when their cash flow can't cover their transfer obligations, it has significant implications for the club and its ownership
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Hi @makemufcgreatagain.bsky.social covered this in my last post bit.ly/4cjEcLB Net transfer debts will remain high for squad rebuild - will suck up most of the cash the club generates. Cost of doing business. But if continue to recruit well and stay in the UCL we'll cycle through it.
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United: Proceed, with caution
United have maximised access to cash to help negotiate in the transfer market – on and off pitch performance will still say how much they can spend sustainably
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
⚠️⚽️ United: Proceed, with caution #MUFC have maximised access to cash to help negotiate in the transfer market – like paying more up front for players. On and off pitch performance will still say how much they can spend sustainably. bit.ly/4cjEcLB
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United: Proceed, with caution
United have maximised access to cash to help negotiate in the transfer market – on and off pitch performance will still say how much they can spend sustainably
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
#MUFC financial results pod with @nqatpod.bsky.social we cover: - How I think we could get £250mn+ EBITDA with UCL qualification - Why matchday rev fell just £2.5mn despite 3 less games - United's negotiating power in the transfer market - Pros/Cons of falling wage bill + outlook - A bit on debt
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
🔴⚽️ United's cost reset taking effect, they now need the Men's team to deliver on the pitch #MUFC total wage bill set to be £300mn in 2025/26. That’s around 30% more than Arsenal when they rest (with 40% higher revenue). bit.ly/4tV3t58
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United's cost reset taking effect, they now need the Men's team to deliver on the pitch
Total wages look to be reset to £300mn, the upside looks like Arsenal's resurgence but its not a given
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
In a world where managerial hiring and firing is increasingly costly. Reminder that #THFC paid £6.7mn to get Frank and his team from Brentford (reported today). Within a year they are probably paying at least the same again (presumably 1 yr salary) for some of those folks to leave.
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Potential Glazer bid for IPL franchise…BCCI rules prohibit leveraged buyouts so how might they fund a bid: 1. Glazers head up consortium through Lancer. 2. Self-fund a bid through: A. Own cash B. Stake sale/ secured loan on Buccs. C. Stake sale in #MUFC 1 and 2B most likely. Hope it’s 2C.
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
#MUFC’s academy isn’t a platitude, it’s a necessity. They’ll need to let more players go than they bring in to fund a £250mn summer transfer window. That will leave opportunities for a “Class of 2026” – read more here 👉 bit.ly/4rvOgFD
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United’s academy isn’t a platitude, it’s a necessity
In a world where United need to sell more players than they'll buy, it creates opportunity for a "Class of 2026"
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Bournemouth owners, Black Knight Football, acquire remaining 60% of French club L'Orient. L'Orient president mentioned a deal was potentially in the works in Nov 2025. www.cannaeholdings.com/news-release...
cannaeholdings.com
Cannae Holdings, Inc. Announces Black Knight Football Club’s (BKFC) Acquisition of Remaining 60% of FC Lorient | Cannae Holdings, Inc.
The Investor Relations website contains information about Cannae Holdings, Inc.'s business for stockholders, potential investors, and financial analysts.
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
Latest episode of United, Inc. We cover: - Latest Deloitte Money League figures, inc. United's slide. - 75% of the Prem being in the list and what it means for football. - How clubs spend their money. - The commercial growth in the women's game. - Latest musings on #MUFC transfer strategy.
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Had some #AVFC fans ask me r.e. squad cost position. Updated my model post Deloitte and I have them just inside the limits. Very tight c.£10mn margin on my numbers. Whisper it quietly but Villa have the 10th largest total wage bill in global football.
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
#MUFC have the same total wage bill as Arsenal, despite not being in the Champions League. Food for thought. Villa the next highest (in world football). They have a total wage bill higher than: Atletico Madrid Dortmund Inter Milan Juventus AC Milan
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
75% of the Premier League is now in the Deloitte Money League i.e. top 30 revenue generators in the world. The idea that challengers can't compete seems odd to me.
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Women’s Football valuations have rocketed due to growth expectations. The latest Deloitte Women’s Money League showed revenue growth of just 35% for top clubs. The Women’s game should focus on exposure and sponsors to drive growth. Broadcasting money can be a dangerous drug. bit.ly/4r5oWpW #WSL
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Is Women's Football worth its growth multiple?
There's lots of opportunity but the latest revenue figures should give execs food for thought on their priorities
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Brahim Diaz needs to be awarded the peace prize for that penalty 😂
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
A spectacular end to AFCON unfolding here. And not in a good way. Senegal coach now ordering his team off the pitch. Wow.
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Quiet start to the year with an emergency #MUFC pod…
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
#Napoli likely facing transfer restrictions for breaking Serie A’s 80% squad cost rule target this season. Risk of breaching UEFA’s 70% SCR too. Any new buys have to be funded from player sales first (like UEFA List A rule). football-italia.net/napoli-risk-...
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Napoli risk transfer ban & Lazio free after Serie A financial review: the situation - Football Italia
Fresh from lifting the Supercoppa Italiana, Napoli could soon be dealing with a transfer-related issue away from the pitch, as reports indicate that Lazio
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
Because there’s nothing else being talked about in the world of #MUFC… immerse yourself in some INEOS financials chat and deals, deals deals deals. Suitable for pre or post war of the roses consumption.
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makemufcgreatagain.bsky.social @makemufcgreatagain.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Have a listen to @spgoals7.bsky.social ‘s latest on No Question About That…. Apparently our scope to use the credit card is v low after splashing out on the front 3 during the summer. So not sure we can expect much unfortunately
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
It's Friday then...so learn about #MUFC financial results, what?...I'll get my coat...we cover - Why revenue dipped by only a few million despite no Europe and some sponsorship losses - Underlying wage bill changes - Just how much did the debt move by and how much was new news? (spoiler, none of it)
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
FIRST TAKE: #MUFC report small improvement in underlying losses for 1Q26 bit.ly/48xKDZh Rev fell £3mn despite no European football, sponsorship losses more than offset by lower wage costs (Men's player departures). Resulted in £2mn reduction in underlying losses vs. 1Q25.
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FIRST TAKE: Manchester United 1Q26 results show small improvements in underlying operating losses
United showed only small revenue declines despite no European football, which was offset by lower staff costs due to Men's playing and non-playing staff changes
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
£30mn owed (excl. transfers), expiring contracts and sale options will provide a transfer kitty. So could more sponsorships. Countless footballing reasons for #MUFC to bring forward spend. But any big mistakes will slow down a full recovery. Do INEOS think that’s a gamble worth taking bit.ly/4pM3cOX
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United can spend in January, but should they?
United have further savings and incoming funds that provide the means to do business, but it might be the sort of bet that got previous regimes into trouble
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
🐺 #Wolves on course for the lowest points total in Premier League history. Their underlying financials? Ex. Player trading losses are £80-100mn/yr. Cash flow supported by debt and just £25mn of infrastructure investment. Could #wwfc value drop 85% with relegation? Subscribe here 👉 bit.ly/4awcs5k
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Wolves wandering into the wilderness
The midlands side are facing the biggest threat to their Premier League status since their return in 2018. What is their underlying financial situation?
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
One for all those who really love tue details on the rules and what they might mean. We cover: - SCR/ SSR etc etc - Whether it changes much for #MUFC - How it might impact rivals.
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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
A moment of reflection that might be a nice listen in the run up to today’s #MUFC game vs Spurs. We cover: 🏦 True cost of rebuilding United 🧮 Finances and PSR 🤨 Opportunity costs from a year of learning ⏳The next two years 🧱 What foundations Wilcox still needs to tweak
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