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sizov-andre.bsky.social

@sizov-andre.bsky.social
78 followers 22 following 800 posts
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Wow. Looks like the US diesel crisis has just been solved. Russia will “immediately” supply 300K tons — roughly 0.6 days of US consumption — plus another 500K tons in Nov, or about 1 day. A “highly successful discussion,” indeed. Now the more interesting question: what did the Kremlin get?
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Are beans on their way to revisit 1273? And if yes, will it hold? If not, there’s a big air pocket below... Probably we’ll get the answer after tomorrow’s WASDE. #soybeans #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Another confirmation that the month-long pause in Ukrainian attacks on merchant vessels in the Black Sea is clearly over. An Aframax tanker, AFRAMAX RIO (~100K mt DWT), fully loaded with oil for India, was reportedly hit near Sochi this afternoon. #oatt #sizovreport #wheat #blacksea
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Big move in BRLUSD after Flávio Bolsonaro’s unexpectedly strong election result — one of the factors behind today’s strength in ags. #soybeans #corn #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Is CBOT #wheat finally starting to move? Saudi Arabia bought 0.6+ mmt last weekend. More importantly, Black Sea exports remain heavily restricted. In our view, things escalated substantially last week. #oatt #sizovreport #blacksea
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Bloomberg on Russia’s attempts to reroute #grain exports away from the Black Sea. Sizov: “The harsh reality is there are no export routes, in principle, that can replace the Black Sea.” 1/2 #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
#Wheat is clinging to the 675 level, but the chart still doesn't look great for bulls. New shorts piled in yesterday. 700 or 650 from here? #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
#Soybeans don't like the lack of new Chinese commitments... All ags could come under pressure unless the WH says something to make farmers "very happy." #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Plenty of #wheat. Not enough ways to ship it. Our latest September export estimates, cited by the WSJ: Russia: 2.1 mmt −56% YoY Ukraine: 0.9 mmt −52% YoY The Black Sea bottleneck is hitting both major wheat exporters at once. www.wsj.com/world/war-th... #wheat #BlackSea #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Oof. Black Sea #grain shipments remain extremely limited, but that 1 mmt figure for Russia's September #wheat exports (from Kpler) is simply wrong. More than 1 mmt was shipped in the 1H of the month alone. SovEcon estimates September exports at 2.1 mmt. Still extremely low vs the usual ~5 mmt.
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
My interview with BBC World Business Report on the current Black Sea disruption and what it means for global #wheat supply and prices (~14 min). open.spotify.com/episode/1TzL...
open.spotify.com
Fed raises US interest rates by 0.25%
World Business Report · Episode
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Deere ag machinery sales are sharply down and the outlook is grim. The stock is supported by strong construction and forestry sales... So not the best chart to prove that US farming is doing great.
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Algeria just paid ~$30/mt more for #wheat than in its previous tender. OAIC bought around 500–510K mt at an estimated $319–321/mt C&F for November shipment. In its previous tender on August 5, Algeria bought up to 720K mt at around $289–290/mt C&F. Pakistan next? #oatt #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Are importers rushing to secure wheat after the recent futures sell-off? Big tender week for #wheat. Pakistan is looking for 0.75 mmt, while Algeria just announced a nominal 50K tender that could easily turn into a 0.5 mmt+ purchase.
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
#Wheat bounced right off the 730 area yesterday — the July high and 20-day moving average — and has already made a higher high today. Dead-cat bounce or something bigger? Our view in the weekly market report: sizov.report/reports/3109... #oatt #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
So Saudi Arabia cancelled its 0.5+ mmt #wheat tender over "unsuitable" offers. Now Pakistan is announcing a 0.7 mmt tender. Not sure they'll find many "suitable" offers either — especially with Russia and Ukraine, the two biggest suppliers, heavily export-restricted.
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
The Black Sea disruption has gone physical. Asian buyers have booked at least 500kt of Australian and Argentine #wheat to replace delayed cargoes - Reuters. Alternatives cost $310–330/t C&F versus $260–280 for Black Sea wheat. #oatt #blacksea
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Erdogan and Putin just met for 1.5 hours in Bishkek. The Black Sea was the main topic. No de-escalation. A few hours later, two separate statements came out - one from Zelensky, one from Putin - that make the situation look considerably worse, not better. Our view: sizov.report/reports/3107...
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Russian #wheat exports could be more than 50% below last year - for the second month in a row - SovEcon. First September estimate: 1.8-2.3 mmt, versus 4.8 mmt a year ago and a 4.9 mmt average. August came in at 2.0 mmt. Also the lowest since 2010. Also down more than 50% YoY. #oatt
sizov.report
Weekly Global & Russian Market Commentary | The Sizov Report
<p><strong>August 24 - August 28, 2026</strong></p><p><strong><u>Wheat FOB Prices and Futures Rally on Black Sea Supply Shock</u></strong></p><p><strong>Summary</strong></p><p><strong>Wheat Futures Hi...
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
#Wheat is at a three-year high, approaching limit-up — up 30% since June. We've been bullish the whole way, telling clients the market was severely underestimating the scale of the Black Sea disruption. Are the risks priced in by now? Our view: sizov.report?utm_source=b... #blacksea #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Wheat reversed sharply lower on news that Russia is temporarily lifting export taxes. The key question: will it actually help export flows? Our quick take: sizov.report/reports/3099... #wheat #Russia #blacksea #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
We just cut our August Russian #wheat export estimate again - down another 0.3 mmt to 1.9 mmt. Novorossiysk terminals remain shut. We expected to see some activity resume, but shipments stayed at zero last week. It will be the lowest August since 2010 - right as global wheat demand is picking up.
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Asian #wheat traders: "fears are growing that several Black Sea shipments might not arrive on time" - Reuters I'd call that a very optimistic take. How about "they'll be lucky to get anything out of the Black Sea at all"? #wheat #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Russian #Wheat Exports Set for Lowest August Since 2010 SovEcon cut its August wheat export forecast to 2.2 mmt from 3.2 mmt, versus 4.5 mmt a year ago and a 5.0 mmt average. Free note: blog.sizov.report/russian-whea...
blog.sizov.report
Russian Wheat Exports Set for Lowest August Since 2010 - The Sizov Report blog
Russian wheat exports are set to fall sharply in August as disruptions at key Black Sea ports continue to restrict shipments, according to a new SovEcon report. We have cut our August wheat export ...
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Ukrainian #grain exports are set to hit their lowest level since April 2022 — the worst month on record since the war began in February that year. SovEcon's August estimate: just 0.8 mmt, as Odesa terminals remain shut.
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Russian August #wheat export estimate cut last week by SovEcon from 3.2 to 2.2 mmt - the lowest since August 2010. But 2010/11 was different: Moscow banned grain exports outright on August 15 amid a poor crop. #Russia #blacksea #sizovreport #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Reuters: "The persistent hopes of a significant number of market participants that the situation in the Azov and Black Sea would return to normal have been confronted with the inescapable reality of even greater escalation. The market is severely underestimating this situation," Andrey Sizov. #wheat
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Russian August #wheat exports could be the lowest since 2016/17 - SovEcon First estimate: 3.0-3.4 mmt, down from 4.5 mmt a year ago and a 5.0 mmt average. And that's before accounting for this week's terminal damage in Novorossiysk. Free note: blog.sizov.report/august-wheat... #sizovreport
blog.sizov.report
August Wheat Exports Could Be Lowest Since 2016/17 - The Sizov Report blog
Black Sea disruptions and weak demand weigh on shipments
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
#Wheat is rallying hard after key Russian #grain terminals were hit last night. Damage to NZT is limited, while the grain loading gallery collapsed at NKHP - this is big and could require months of repairs. For now, only one of three terminals is operating at the port. #oatt #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Looks like a big long liquidation is going on in Matif #wheat on Black Sea de-escalation rumours. Funds were pretty long — +89K contracts, or 92% of their 5-year max, as of last Friday. #wheat #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Sep CBOT #wheat: +4 cents WOW! 🚀🚀🚀 #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Funds continue to buy Euronext #wheat. Makes sense given the situation in the Black Sea. At the same time, their net long is near record levels — 92% of the 5-year high. That could be a concern for bulls. Will those longs make profit? Let's see... #wheat #oatt #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Russian #wheat exports in July: lowest since 2017/18, driven by Azov/Black Sea disruption. Futures are tumbling anyway. Makes sense? Not really. Here's what we think is going on: sizov.report/reports/3068... #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Once again, Europe wakes up and buys #wheat, and Chicago wakes up and sells. Who's right? #wheat #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Reuters - China's state-run trading companies bought 14-16 cargoes of U.S. #soybeans on Friday, four Asian traders told Reuters on Monday, taking advantage of lower prices in a flurry of ​purchases ahead of President Xi Jinping's expected U.S. visit next month. #oatt #china
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Funds were actively buying Euronext #wheat last week amid Black Sea and Azov Sea disruption. This week? Probably selling — as if the region suddenly went quiet. It didn't. No signs of de-escalation, and importer demand should be picking up. #wheat #oatt #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Why is #wheat rallying hard again today? More attacks in the Black Sea. A few days ago I broke down what's happening — and why wheat is called a "widowmaker" — on The Telegraph podcast "Ukraine: the latest." www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzG-... #oatt #Russia #Ukraine #blacksea #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Wow. #Wheat is up 2 cents — thanks to rallying crude. (Meanwhile the global market is staring down its largest supply shock in years, thanks to Azov/Black Sea disruption. But who cares about such tiny details, right?) #wheat #oatt #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Another vessel hit near Odesa today. The pattern continues. #wheat #corn #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Friday's sell-off on Black Sea de-escalation rumours — overdone? The deal talk is coming from Ukraine. From Russia? Silence. Hard to imagine a deal without Moscow at the table. Things to watch this week: UN Security Council (Mon), Zelensky-Trump meeting (Tue), and probably more attacks.
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
European and U.S. wheat traders keep disagreeing lately. Europe wakes up, buys. Chicago wakes up, sells. Same story again today. Who's got it right? #wheat #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Front-month Euronext #wheat just hit the highest since June 2024 and CBOT is approaching $7 handle again. Here's what we wrote last week: "Until Russia finds an effective way to repel Ukrainian attacks, its export flows will remain under pressure - the rally has further room to run." #sizovreport
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Reposted by @sizov-andre.bsky.social
sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
French #corn ratings: 90% good/excellent in early May. 44% now. That's the fastest collapse on record. EU S&D could see substantial revisions: bigger corn imports, larger #wheat feed use? #oatt #sizovreport #agwx
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
We just cut our July Russian #wheat export estimate to 1.5 mmt from 2.0 mmt. That's roughly half the 5-year average of 3.1 mmt. Azov Sea closure is the main reason - but muted demand from Egypt and Turkey isn't helping either. Full breakdown: sizov.report/reports/3053... #sizovreport #oatt
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
French #corn ratings: 90% good/excellent in early May. 44% now. That's the fastest collapse on record. EU S&D could see substantial revisions: bigger corn imports, larger #wheat feed use? #oatt #sizovreport #agwx
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Headlines: Russian #wheat harvest badly delayed! Reality: yes, behind 2025 - but that was a relatively early campaign. Versus the average, it's close to normal pace. The real story is yields in the South, the #1 growing region. Surprises there. #wheat #Russia #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Fact check: true
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
CBOT #wheat, 10 cents from limit up. Everyone's watching Azov Sea disruptions. Fewer are watching Odesa - Russian strikes there overnight were what actually triggered today's spike. The key takeaway: both RU and UA 26/27 export estimates could be cut substantially. More room to run? #sizovreport
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sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Why did #wheat turn green today? Maybe some people caught our podcast with @StandardGrain and realized "sell the Black Sea spike" might not be the best playbook this time. share.vidyard.com/watch/t3ViNX... #wheat #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport #kerch
share.vidyard.com
Is Wheat Underpriced? Russia/Ukraine War Update 7/14/26
Andrey Sizov discusses the current state of grain markets, focusing on the importance of the Black Sea region for global wheat supply, particularly amid ongoing conflicts. He explains that, while rece...
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Reposted by @sizov-andre.bsky.social
sizov-andre.bsky.social @sizov-andre.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
French #corn ratings dropping like a rock. With heat still persistent, I don't think it's over. France is the EU's top corn grower. Is U.S. corn taking notes? #agwx #oatt #agwx #sizovreport
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