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Simon Rosenberg

@simonwdc.bsky.social
134K followers 1.1K following 5K posts

Democratic political strategist, analyst, commentator. Hopium purveyor. More than 30 years in the fight. My primary political home is on Substack. Join me there too - www.hopiumchronicles.com

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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 12h
Non-zero chance Trump has begun to truly unravel as the reality of his impending ass whooping sinks in.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Adding insult to injury Trump isn't actually getting that much oil from Russia. Huge PR boost for Putin, money in his pocket, and the US gets very, very little in return. Unless there was something for the Trump family that we don't know about yet. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/10/u...
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
While it's still early one early voting trend we are seeing in many states is a surge of voters of color, a bit of an ominous sign for the rancid, racist party of Trump. Here's today's national update from TargetEarly:
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Trump drops to 30% approval for the first time this term in a high-quality, independent poll.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Most significant early vote trend we are seeing so far (yes it is early) is heightened performance among people of color. Here's this morning's national early vote tally from #TargetEarly broken out demographically:
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Here’s what we are seeing Virginia: 2022 D+29 2024 D+15 2026 D+31
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Here’s what we are seeing so far in Pennsylvania's early vote: 2022 D+48 2024 D+49 2026 D+58
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
While it's early we are seeing very strong Dem early vote performance in three states now - New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. All data via TargetEarly, this day vs comparable days in 2022 and 2024: Here's New Jersey: 2022 D+37 2024 D+45 2026 D+48 1/
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
These guys are traitors.....I really don't know any other word that can capture the savage assault Trumpworld has unleashed against our democracy, NATO, and the West.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Daily national early vote update via #TargetEarly: 2022 Ds + 24 2024 Ds + 24 2026 Ds + 31
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Rs have now dropped 48 polls in 14 states from 6 different pollsters. Here's my updated chart......
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
It's still early but here's today's TargetEarly national look at the early vote. What you are seeing is the early vote that has come in so far compared to this day in 2022 and 2018. The partisan breakdown is "modeled party" from Target Smart's voter file. We are off to a good start.......
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This could become one of the iconic images of this time....just jawdropping wtf is MAGA doing 24/7/365....
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The upper end of the generic ballot range is looking very, very blue wavey.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Here's my update on the flood of right-aligned polls into the battleground Senate races - 36 polls, 14 states, 7 pollsters, 15 days.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Staggering levels of repudiation, rejection, and decay.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Remember Trump told us why they run ops like this - to "demoralize" the other side. 2/
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Rs dropped six new polls today. So in the last 9 days they've dropped 32 Senate polls in 14 states by 7 pollsters. It's a manic, desperate effort, and no one should be fooled by what they are doing. 1/
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
So in the last 8 days desperate Rs have dropped 26 Senate polls by 7 pollsters in 14 states. They've done this kind of stuff before but the manic intensity of the effort suggests a level of desperation consistent with spiking gas prices, escalating global chaos, and a deteriorating battlefield.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
So in the last 8 days desperate have dropped 26 Senate polls by 7 pollsters in 14 states. They've done this kind of stuff before but the manic intensity of the effort suggests a level of desperation consistent with spiking gas prices, escalating global chaos, and a deteriorating battlefield.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Trumpists are holding back COVID vaccines for poor kids, and only for poorer kids. Monsters they are. Monsters.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
So Rs are now up to 6 pollsters, 20 polls, 13 Senate battleground states, and lots and lots of bullsh-t over 7 days. No one should treat any of this as legit.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Our rapacious leader is a deeply deranged man. Stomping all over the legacy of an assassinated President. It's horrific.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Here's a breakdown of a similar effort with many of the same pollsters in New Jersey last year. They all had the race close. Stories were written about the race "tightening," "being too close to call," abt the R candidate gaining/strengthening, and ours losing/weakening. Sherrill won by 14 pts. 3/
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
A few weeks ago Trump told us why they do these types of campaigns - to demoralize, demobilize the other side. 2/
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
In the past six days six right-aligned pollsters have begun "flooding the zone," releasing eighteen polls in eleven battleground Senate races. While they've done this before the pace and intensity of this effort is unprecedented, a reflection of their desperation. 1/
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
In the last five days five right-aligned pollsters have released 14 polls in 11 battleground Senate races. Here's the current list. The "red waving" of the 2026 election has begun.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
4 of these 5 pollsters - co/efficient, Insider Advantage, Quantus, Trafalgar - also participated in a polling op against Mikie Sherrill last November. In the final days of the election they all had her race close, "tightening." She won by 14.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
So in 2022 Rs "flooded the zone" with polls in battleground Senate races to create a false impression that a red wave was coming. In the last three days Rs have released a torrent of polls in the 2026 battlegrounds. 11 polls, 5 pollsters, 11 states. Hard to not see this as 2022 red wave redux.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Just so we all understand the play here. Release initial polls showing Senate Dem candidates with modest leads. Release more in coming weeks showing the races "tightening," and their candidate gaining and ours losing ground. It's 2022 red wave, redux. No one should fall for it this time.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
For some reasons my wife and I decided to go back and watch the Terminator movies this weekend. First one down. #2 loading up….
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Meanwhile, over at Twitter, Elon is just making sh-t up about the Texas Senate race. This was the lead story in my Today's News/trending topics - completely made up narrative about Paxton gaining, Talarico slipping.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
I know the Fight Agency has had some impressive wins but man Fetterman AND Platner is a lot to overcome.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Watch this video. The conversation about him stepping down has to become louder. He's not capable of leading us any more. Doesn't understand what is happening around him. Everything is going to sh*t. It's ridiculous that this great nation is allowing this to happen to us.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
This story about the head of the NYC DSA is bonkers… www.nytimes.com/2026/08/22/n...
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
In a new Senate Majority PAC poll of Michigan Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers by 6, 50%-44%. For more - www.politico.com/newsletters/....
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Look at this chart from the new Fox News poll of Maine that has Troy Jackson up 48%-46% over Susan Collins. She's in a load of sh-t.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
19% of the vote sitting right here.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Never gets old…. @nationals.com
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Trump is a titanic f*ck up 5/
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Since the Cold War ended 50 million of the 52 million net new jobs created in America have been created under Democratic Presidents. Essentially all of them. 4/
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Trump now has the worst jobs record of any President since Hoover. 3/
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
GDP growth has also slowed under Trump. 2/
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Some charts on what an incredible failure Trump's economic policies have been. Tariffs, war, mass deportation, the big ugly bill have resulted in much slower job growth. 1/
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
How bat shit crazy is this? Hong is too out there for Bernie?
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Live MI Sen via NYT..... Less than a point, only 15k votes separate them now
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
My assumption is that if El-Sayed wins and gets the party to rally around him he’ll get a meaningful bump in the polls. But in last week of the primary 3 general election polls had him trailing Rogers. It’s some of the worst polling we’ve seen from any battleground Senate candidate this cycle.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
In the closing days of the primary El-Sayed trailed Rogers in three separate polls, while Stevens lead in all three. But the coverage of these polls were overwhelmed by the partisan primary polls showing El-Sayed blowing it out.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Here's the last poll released by El-Sayed's SuperPAC. If the current results hold it was off by 14 points.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Understand why folks may be confused about recent polling in the Michigan Senate race - for it's confusing! Here's a summary I did last week of MI Senate primary polls by type via NYT 👇 Whitmer would have only endorsed if Stevens was likely to win, and if the endorsement would seal it.
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