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Simon Stephan

@simonstephan.bsky.social
53 followers 74 following 8 posts

Psychologist/ Cognitive Scientist @uniGoettingen Causal Reasoning, Computational Modelling, Statistics, Guitars and Harmonicas. Cats.

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Reposted by Simon Stephan
Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
The Stanford Psychology Department is having a search for a tenure-track Assistant Professor with a research focus on developmental and/or social psychology. Application deadline is 10/15. More infos here: facultypositions.stanford.edu/jobs/assista...
facultypositions.stanford.edu
Assistant Professor, Psychology - Stanford University, California, United States
The Department of Psychology at Stanford University is seeking applicants for a tenure-track Assistant Professor position, with a research focus on developmental and/or social psychology. In addition ...
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Reposted by Simon Stephan
Tomer Ullman @tomerullman.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
new paper out: *~*~*~*~ "Revisiting the 5- to 7-Y ear Shift: The Age of Metacognitive Control?" (by Brod @garvinbrod.bsky.social , McAuliffe @katiemcauliffe.bsky.social , Ullman) *~*~*~*~ sharable paper link: bit.ly/5to7_2026 free pdf draft: www.tomerullman.org/papers/5to7s...
bit.ly
Revisiting the 5- to 7-year shift: The age of metacognitive control?
Abstract. The term 5- to 7-year shift refers to the marked changes in behavior observed as children transition from preschool age to school age. In 1996, a
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Reposted by Simon Stephan
Claudio Tennie @ctennie.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
A 2025 Science paper reported that bonobos combine calls to create new meanings. We analyzed its stats and then reanalysed the data. --> The claim did not hold up. Our paper (open access): doi.org/10.7717/peer... With @johanlind.bsky.social @annajonand.bsky.social
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Simon Stephan @simonstephan.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
(7/7) Bottom line: apparent causal illusions can be a rational response to ambiguous data, not a reasoning flaw — though some participants did show non-normative updating too. All materials and data are available here: github.com/SimonStephan...
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Simon Stephan @simonstephan.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
(6/7) Exp. 3 replicated with a different test query; Exp. 4 showed the same pattern using purely statistical (non-visual) causal structure priors. The source of the prior (visual vs. statistical information) didn't matter — only its size did.
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Simon Stephan @simonstephan.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
(5/7) Exp. 2 ruled out that people were just ignoring the data: a high-prior condition + disconfirming data produced clear downward belief revision. People update — they just start from different priors.
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Simon Stephan @simonstephan.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
(4/7) Exp. 1: When the mechanism visibly ruled out a link, the "illusion" nearly vanished — ratings dropped to near zero. When hidden, the classic illusion appeared, scaling with outcome density exactly as Bayesian models predict.
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Simon Stephan @simonstephan.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
(3/7) We built a "ball-device" paradigm where participants could see (or not see) a device's internal mechanism before learning from zero-contingency data. Seeing a blocked mechanism should instill a low prior; an open path, a high prior.
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Simon Stephan @simonstephan.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
(2/7) This seeming "causal illusion" is often framed as irrational bias. Bayesian models say otherwise: it emerges when non-zero causal priors aren't fully overridden by the data. We manipulated participants' causal priors, which affected the formation of "causal illusions"(N=1,860, 4 experiments).
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Simon Stephan @simonstephan.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
(1/7) New paper in @cognitionjournal.bsky.social: "Manipulating Prior Causal Beliefs Affects the Formation of Apparent Causal Illusions" Why do people sometimes "see" causal links in zero-contingency data? We tested if this is rational updating, not bias. 🧵 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Manipulating prior causal beliefs affects the formation of apparent causal illusions
Non-contingent learning data can produce an apparent “illusory” or “false” perception of causality (“causal illusion”), especially if a potential caus…
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Simon Stephan @simonstephan.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
Interesting new paper on the development of probabilistic reasoning. While young kids seem to rely on different heuristic strategies to solve probability problems (like urn tasks), older ones (around 5y) calculate proportions. Methodological message: control for alternative reasoning strategies.
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Reposted by Simon Stephan
Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
New paper in Psychological Review! In "Causation, Meaning, and Communication" Ari Beller (cicl.stanford.edu/member/ari_b...) develops a computational model of how people use & understand expressions like "caused", "enabled", and "affected". 📃 osf.io/preprints/ps... 📎 github.com/cicl-stanfor... 🧵
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Reposted by Simon Stephan
Jim AC Everett @jimaceverett.bsky.social · 15/11/2023
New paper in Psych Science led by Clara Colombatto in which we show that, contra expectations of policymakers, vaccine nationalism actually decreases trust in leaders. Redistributive leaders are trusted more than nationalistic leaders —even by more nationalistic participants.
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