Sign in

Simon Jeffrey

@simonjeffrey.bsky.social
515 followers 702 following 2.6K posts

Personal opinions about transport and devolution policy.

PostsRepliesMedia
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Like the simplicity of this 'Bailouts for by-elections' policy for Metro Mayors as their powers and responsibilities grow. Couldn't be clearer where the buck stops - good for Mayors but as important if not more so for setting a clear boundary for central government attempts to interfere.
110
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Govt provides huge EV BiK tax discount (pay 4% vs 37% for ICEV) so fleets buy and generate the demand for newer better vehicles. After 3-4 years, get sold on cheaper into a bigger second hand market, helping more people switch to an EV.
131
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The Mag’s new crest released. Not much change of that, but fully expect this (new) castle ‘logo’ to get everywhere on the merch and branding. And over time…
100
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
We should chill out about the yellow line going down to zero at increasing marginal cost when other emissions sources are higher and decarbonisation/electrification of these depends on cheap electricity that reducing the yellow line inhibits.
100
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Was thinking of powerful sun year round actually. Installing two renewable capacities - wind and solar - to get year round just another level of redundancy our position imposes, on top of the gas generation capacity we'll have to pay a lot for but mostly leave sitting idle for decades to come.
100
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
People who believe we need urgent action to tackle climate change are arguing that they’re not cheaper for the UK when you include the system costs needed to ensure there is always power when we really need it and can’t rely on the wind or sun.
Dieter Helm - The price of energy and system cost of renewables - 26 August 2025
Are renewables cheap?
The argument is that exposure to gas prices is a temporary affair. Why? Because, it is argued, soon the renewables will be supplying most of our electricity, and they are "cheap". It is utopia postponed, but not cancelled. Go faster, build more wind and solar, and the UK's cheap global clean-energy superpower competitive advantage lies just around the corner.
It is here that the confusions about the concept of "cost" come into their own. The most simplistic argument is to point out that the marginal costs of wind and solar are close to zero. This is indeed the case, and in many respects it is uninteresting. Comparing the marginal cost of gas with wind and solar is comparing apples with oranges. Wind and solar are intermittent; gas supplies both firm and flexible power.
In the "Cost of Energy Review",[1] | set out how to ensure that the system could deliver the required firm power capacity through equivalent firm power (EFP) auctions. The renewables industry (and the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, DESNZ) went into a frenzy of lobbying against this idea. Why? Because it goes to the heart of the problem: a unit of solar or wind power is not of equivalent value to a unit of gas (or nuclear). Although the lobbyists keep trotting out that each new wind farm is enough to power x number of homes, they never put in the press releases "when the wind blows". Even the Financial Times repeats these misleading press statements without exception.
Solar and wind are intermittent, low-density, geographically distributed generating technologies. No modern economy could rely solely upon them. There has to be back-up. This back-up is an additional cost of renewables, and it would be reflected in the discounted EFP prices that renewables would achieve. No wonder the lobbyists for renewables hate the concept. To be clear, renewables don't pay the costs of the intermittency…Worse still, the demand for security of supply is rising, as the new communications and digital technologies gain ground. A data centre, a cyber link, and almost all the infrastructures that rely upon firm power are 24/7.
The events in Spain and Portugal in the Iberian Peninsula-wide power cut show how the value of security of supply has increased. The new infrastructures are highly energy-intensive.
These require not only back-up at scale in order to overcome longer winter periods of low wind, dark skies and cold, but also lots of short-term back-up too, like standby diesel and gas generation. This standby capacity needs to be added to the system requirements which are moving towards twice the capacity demand of the pre-renewables world. This is as much as 60GW of extra capacity on top of what is already required for the same output. The total cost of all this is obviously considerable, and these are all costs of deploying renewables at scale.
Transmission has been built up to take power from very large coal, nuclear and gas power stations to the centres of demand - from the coalfields, the coastal nuclear stations and remoter gas power stations to London and the South East. Now the transmission system is being required to take small-scale generation from offshore and from the north and east of Scotland to the South and from the east coast of England. In the offshore Scottish case, the CfD price is already around E113/MWh, before adding on the transmission costs and the intermittency costs (and paying for constrained-off power).
Far from being the case that energy-intensive industries would be flocking to locate in North East Scotland to get close to cheap offshore wind generation, a better argument would be not to generate there at all and then avoid all the extra transmission costs. Zonal pricing will not solve this problem: the advocates of zonal pricing for Scotland also fail to take account of the costs of balancing the Scottish system, notably in winter. The …
311
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
And it's not unusual for policies to deliver a goal eg NZ to shift over time. We're stuck in correct NZ policy from 2015-2022 but it's 2026. Grid right focus then but increasing costs of that vs falling cost EVs/heat pumps changes that. Policy shift should be cheapest electricity over greenest.
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Quite odd that we ended up with all the prices being the same, despite wildly different demand, value and cost.
010
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
And it's not unusual for policies to deliver a goal eg NZ to shift over time. We're stuck in correct NZ policy from 2015-2022 but it's 2026. That era of NZ (+low interest rates) made grid greener + Cambrian explosion of electrification. So policy shift should be everything else ->cheap electricity.
100
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Ok sounds like that was already in the works. Put the money into DSRB to circuitously self fund UK purchases via MDM maybe.
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Look forward to seeing where it sits on this
Michel Barnier’s ladder of relationship
1132
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Interesting chart from Dan showing impact of the policy proposal. (And some low hanging fruit for Burnham/Healey to pluck if they dare)
Tax cuts: bang for the buck £ of annual GDP boost per £ cost of tax cut
Abolish stamp duty on shares £4.47
Abolish £100k personal-allowance taper £1.67
Extend full expensing to leased assets and structures
£1.0O
Cut residential stamp duty by half
£0.80
Abolish High Income Child Benefit Charge
£0.60
Raise employer NI threshold to £6,500
£0.58
Cut employee NI by lIp
£0.56
Cut employer NI by 0.55p
£0.54
Cut Universal Credit taper from 55% to -45%
£0.50
Abolish the apprenticeship levy
£0.42
Raise personal allowance by £740
£0.35
Cut basic rate of income tax 0.85p
£0.33
Universities UK: no employer NI for under-25s
£0.20
Reform's tax-free overtime 
£0.07
10% hospitality VAT rate 
£0.04
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Surprised and delighted to see the tourist levy as top story on the BBC News
251
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Councillor Neighbour is a tremendous name for a council leader. More concept than man, like Citizen Journalist or Gentleman Farmer.
Hart DC leader David Neighbour (lib Dem) said the government's decision had left councils "in the dark" over when, or whether, the proposed new unitaries would be created.

Cllr Neighbour said the government's decision to withdraw the Hampshire and Solent proposals, alongside its commitment to hold existing district elections in May 2027, had created significant uncertainty.
120
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Discount cut first, and then huge eligibility restrictions. The problem with Thatcher’s policy (and Labour’s 1959 manifesto promise RtB) was it was a nationalisation of local council decision. Let councils decide (and fund) any housing support/supply decisions in there area.
New reforms to be brought forward will include:
• Increasing the minimum eligibility period from three to ten years before tenants can apply to buy their home.
• Amending discount rules so that discounts start at 5% of
the property value and increase by 1% each year up to the maximum discount of 15% of the property value or the cash cap (whichever is lower).
• A 35-year new build exemption period so new social homes cannot be sold under Right to Buy for 35 years after they are built.
111
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
AKA good luck Andy getting council homes built under a system that has people screaming blue murder about ‘luxury’ flats.
020
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Germany and Italy the current and future laggards.
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Are we going to end up with a real FIFA vs Pro-Evo but for real? How about a Free Trade World Cup for FIFA World Cup off-years? A celebration of (economic) openness. Coldplay railing against non-tariff barriers and calling for mutual recognition (of qualifications) during half-time show.
210
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
A sad day. But not sure anything will ever come close to the exhilaration, ecstasy and no small amount of agony King Kev brought to every and especially this young Newcastle fan in the Keegan Years. RIP.
010
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Curious how NPPF with zones around stations and small site and new medium site category could lead to a very s106-lite pattern of private development and focused on outer London. Developers pay nowt (1-9) or ~20% cash in lieu (10-49) for offsite. Less hassle, lower barrier to entry, faster turnover.
110
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
For a moment thought Maguire was going to do flip the column here and talk about NRL’s impending takeover of the ownership and running of Super League from the northern set.
Much has been written about the ideological complexion of Burnham's government-in-waiting this week. And that sort of thing will matter. But his defining critique of the Labour Party and its failures in government is cultural. "You have to stay connected, or you die," he told me in May, as he watched Wigan Warriors win the Challenge Cup final. "The difference between the Labour Party and rugby league is that, although rugby league has its challenges, it's run by the northern set - and the same can't always be said about the Labour Party."

That is about to change - and change profoundly. Labour's northern set is back in business. This is their party now, and in little more than 72 hours it will be their government. You would be
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
City of London considered Historic England's proposals and said 'disagree'. Planning Inspectorate found that decision to be sound. Great things can (will) happen when you choose to be a living city and don't give in to Unesco attempts to fossilise you.
Picture of the new Everton FC stadium
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Yeah no change Nov to June but Cons supporters split pro-vs-anti Net Zero (and even then the pros are all at soft end of 'try' vs 'every reasonable measure') but Reform voters fully anti. Could say the elite consensus on the right was probably out of whack with popular opinion in their bloc.
YouGov polling from June 2026 showing support as described in postYouGov polling from November 2025 showing support as described in post
010
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Rye Lane jubilant
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Arsenal in Champions League final. Starmer writes letter saying £4.99 awful. Doesn’t attend despite being season-ticket holder and it’s in newly post-Orban Budapest so chance to visit Magyar. Knicks in Finals, Trump says ‘$100k tickets? Oh well, watch on cable. And shut the city down, I’m going.’
BBC article quote: Many of the team's devoted fans can't afford tickets to the first home game of the series, with the cheapest online resale tickets currently going for more than $10,000 (E7,468) and running up to more than $100,000.
Regular Knicks games already rank among the most expensive in the NBA.
"That's the way life goes," Trump told reporters on Friday when asked about the extreme ticket prices. "It's sort of semi-free to watch it on television."
The president recently said he accepted an invitation from Knicks owner James Dolan to attend Monday - indicating that he might also attend the fourth game on Wednesday.
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Where does it say ‘abandon net zero’? Clean Power 2030 isn’t ‘Net Zero’. It’s a very expensive way to push the last bit of gas off the grid while making petrols cars/gas boilers less attractive to replace. Today’s the perfect day to reflect on whether we’re getting this right/why no one copying us.
100
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Not sure this has even been a great period for London’s economy. But London’s high nominal wages/house prices mean taxman takes a bigger wedge while disposable income is pretty flat vs rest of the country. And 20 years of tax policy has tilted that even further.
010
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Common unscientific opinion: Birmingham partly underperforms relative to Manchester - at the very least in brand and swagger terms - due to recent football underperformance. Villa and potentially Birmingham City renaissance are good omens.
120
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
People kicking off about fuel duty pause are getting Coalition flashbacks. But there are certain (Cameron-Osborne) downward slopes on this chart during low inflation when freezes were indefensible, and other, upward bits/high inflation where it’s not so clear cut.
200
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Miliband wimped out of the biggest policy decision he’s had to make. North Sea oil and gas in there too.
Greg Jackson & @g_J
X.com
According to independent experts, Zonal Pricing would conservatively have saved £50-100/year on household bills (perhaps more if it improved infrastructure decisions) - within a couple of years - whilst making energy cleaner.
The government says its solution - Reformed National Pricing - could save £20-40/year by
2040. A fraction the saving and a decade late.
Zonal pricing was itself a compromise between nodal pricing and the current system.
It's like nodal was the real deal. Freshly squeezed orange juice. Zonal was a nearly as good substitute - orange juice from concentrate, and reformed national pricing is so diluted it's more like flavoured water.
This isn't reopening old wounds - but surely a cost-benefit analysis of zonal vs the alternatives should have been done before the decision.
And this is all assuming that these plans survive incumbent lobbying....
222
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Never understood why wording of tax red lines didn’t lead govt to say eg … ‘our aging population is something we need to adapt to. Only fair those with wealth in pension pots contribute as part of that. So a new 3p basic and 5p higher rate Health and Social Care Levy paid by over65s for over65s’
010
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
First Labour-adjacent document I’ve read with an actual theory and method behind it. Luckily it’s one I largely share. More power to them.
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
If Prince William is going to Turkey for the final should prove he’s a man of the people and make a proper trip of it
230
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Very inefficient and ultimately doomed system trying to do a redistributive tax and benefit system alongside industrial and environmental policy through the electricity bills rather than have low prices and govt paying for things through tax
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
‘It’s gas that makes us vulnerable to high prices’ - apparently not (much, at least). High policy costs to make up 75% of bills by 2030 mean we will be neither hugely vulnerable to high wholesale costs or zero wholesale costs, whatever the source.
100
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
Centre for London haven’t even published the report and research this is apparently based on. It was a presentation. Where are the charts?! Crazy that it gets published next to BBC News and looks identical to it. If BBC Sport can get its own section and style, BBC Local News should too.
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
We have the highest minimum wage in the world. Don’t think Resolution Foundation are anti-high minimum wage but honest about costs and benefits of it overshooting. And this about reaching highest in world 66% of median salary.
100
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Inflation in sectors that are significantly low wage now good indicator of future for an economy with 10m+ jobs set by NMW. Can’t absorb so pass through e.g. supermarkets. LPC says 0.06-0.24pp of CPI now. Impact of increase from 66%-75% will be non-linear.
100
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
He’s good at this. Does seem a bit odd to not name check UK on this if Nordics and Australia included.
010
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
That is a ridiculous claim. Those are tiny tweaks that will make a small difference at the margin. The system of funding is quite plainly not ‘setting Wales up to fail’ - it’s providing greater spend than local revenues could sustain, or need would imply. The IFS crystal clear just last month.
Taking these updates into account, our revised findings are:
• After adjusting for changes in responsibilities over time, Welsh Government funding in 2025-26 is projected to be 18.3% higher in real terms than in 2019-20 (previously estimated at 16.3%). On a per-person basis, and after accounting for population growth, this represents an increase of 13.8% (previously 11.9%).
• On as close to a like-for-like basis as possible, Welsh Government resource funding in 2025-26 will be 15.0 higher in real terms than in 2010-11 (previously 13.0% After accounting for population growth, this equates to 9.6% higher funding per person (previously 7.4%).
く
• Official forecasts now show average real-terms growth of 1.0% per year over the next three years (previously 1.1%).
Growth is expected to be 1.8% in 2026-27 (previously 1.4%), followed by average growth of 0.6% per year in the subsequent two years (previously 1.0%).Using this long-standing official approach, we estimate that in 2024-25 the Welsh Government's funding per person from the UK government was equivalent to 124.5% of the amount departments spent per person on comparable services in England. Accounting for devolved revenues (such as net revenue from the Welsh rates of income tax), the figure increases to 126.8%. These estimates, based on the official HM Treasury methodology, therefore suggest that the Welsh Government receives substantially higher funding relative to England than the Holtham Commission's 2010 estimates of Wales's relative needs (114 - 117%) would imply it would
require.
100
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
And how much does that affect electricity prices and the electrification of heating and transport that will support much greater decarbonisation than any marginal reduction in gas use? And the grid is absolutely fine with dispatchable supply close to demand. Getting it from North Sea is the issue.
000
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
‘Headroom’ is good… why? Pushes prices up vs max utilisation, delays take-up of EV and heat pump. Cheap power and a bit more gas on grid to cover higher demand in 2030 so it’s 7% rather than 5% is great deal for 100s of 1000s more EVs and heat pumps on 93% clean electricity not 100% fossil fuel
100
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
Nuclear has ticked up again, now towards 5.3GW. Highest availability in a couple of years. Great to see but, also, couldn’t have picked a less helpful time of day, week or year to step up output. Sunny Saturdays in April not when we need that baseload so much.
010
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Not so fun facts about uninsured drivers: they kill and maim a lot of people.
• Every 20 minutes, someone is the victim of an uninsured or hit-and-run driver. That's three an hour, 72 a day, more than
26,000 a year.
• Every day, at least one person is so seriously injured by an uninsured or hit-and-run driver that they need lifelong care.
That's more than 360 people a year whose lives are forever changed for the worse.
• Every week, at least one person is killed by a driver who is not insured. That's more than 50 people a year whose lives are cut short, more than 50 families a year who lose a loved one.
• Every day, there is an average of 300,000 uninsured vehicles on UK roads. The total number across the year is over 1
million.
• Every year, using government figures, we estimate that uninsured and hit-and-run drivers cost the economy almost
£2.4 billion.
65710
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Interesting to read from some in the EU who also think Commission sticking to the pre-Ukraine/Trump trade deal playbook with neighbours like the UK is dogmatic and geopolitically short-sighted.
BBC News article excerpt:

The European Commission - the bloc's executive arm that negotiates trade deals on behalf of EU member states, has also drawn criticism.
Countries that do a lot of trade and feel a particular affinity with the UK complain off the record that while it is important to safeguard EU interests, the commission is being "too rigid" and should be more imaginative and flexible when it comes to doing bespoke deals with the UK.
Especially, EU diplomats have told me, bearing in mind the threats to Europe economically and in security terms by China, Russia and of late, the US too.
310
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
John Kingman presented the clearest off-the-shelf option for Reeves that could fund military capital spend increase over next decade in his piece last year. Pension funds are forming their own, building with and buying stock from housing associations. Keen to buy more. Let them.
111
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Hadn't realised quite how impeccable Sheinbaum's Green credentials were.
Passage from El Pais article: 
The president’s stance is paradoxical. Sheinbaum studied physics and energy engineering. Before entering politics, in the 1990s, she published several articles in specialized journals that established her as a pioneer in climate change studies in Mexico. Years later, she served on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), where she co-authored a study on greenhouse gas emissions from the industrial sector. In 2007, the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its contributions to understanding climate change, which was already considered to be one of humanity’s greatest challenges.

Even during her 2024 presidential campaign, Sheinbaum pledged to maintain the fracking ban implemented by her predecessor. In December 2023, she stated that the activity “requires large quantities of water.” She added that “the water used [for fracking] is difficult to reuse.”

As president, however, Sheinbaum has had to put those environmental concerns on the back burner and give way to pragmatism, prioritizing Mexico’s energy sovereignty vis-à-vis the United States. This transition has been quiet. One of the first signs of change — though it was difficult to understand at the time — was when, in Congress, Morena rejected a constitutional amendment through which López Obrador wanted to prohibit hydraulic fracturing. A legislator from Morena — with access to the National Palace — confirmed to EL PAÍS that this refusal was intentional, meant to keep open the window that now allows the government to fully embrace fracking.
031
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Great stuff. Hardly in the village and very much hidden from view by trees and the much larger ELECTRICITY SUB-STATION with GIANT PYLONS it’s not entirely coincidentally located next to.
031
Simon Jeffrey @simonjeffrey.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
The power for electricity is pretty clean already, it’s the lack of electrification of energy that’s the problem.
031