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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 13/12/2025

Ein paar Gedanken zu »Zerstörungslust« von @camlinger.bsky.social und @onachtwey.bsky.social 🫰Spannende Interviews zur faschistoiden Gedankenwelt der Gegenwart. Doch die Analyse eines »demokratischen Faschismus« hat vier analytische Schwächen👇

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Die Brandmauer ist also für Linke kein "strategisches Hauptziel" sondern eine Lebensversicherung. 9/9

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Deshalb muss die AfD möglichst von der Staatsmacht isoliert bleiben. 8/9

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Mit der AfD an der Regierung werden die Repressionen so stark, dass es schwierig sein wird, die solidarischen Alternativen aufzubauen, die es in Kampf gegen Rechts braucht. 7/9

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Das macht die AfD mit ihrer neuen Jugendorganisation, die sich am 29. November in Gießen gründen will. 6/9

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Die anderen bürgerlichen Parteien wollen regieren. Sie sind taktische Rassisten. Merz baut kein militantes Vorfeld auf, um seine Ziele durchzusetzen. 5/9

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Die AfD arbeitet daran, die liberale Demokratie zu begraben, sie verfolgt ein völkisch-autoritäres Projekt. Auf jede politische Frage ist ihre Antwort: Ausländer raus. 4/9

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Trotzdem hat die AfD einen anderen Charakter als die restlichen bürgerlichen Parteien. 3/9

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Ja, die aktuellen Grundrechtsverschärfungen werden durchgesetzt, ohne dass die AfD in der Macht ist. 2/9

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Was für ein spannender, neuer Podcast von @sebfriedrich.bsky.social und @nschniederjann.bsky.social Nur am Ende biegt er falsch ab finde ich 1/9

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

Für Marx ist Bonaparte ein "Unfall", der durch die Uneinigkeit der herrschenden Klasse an die Macht kommt. Das passt auch heute. Er schreibt aber auch über das zu Grunde liegende Kräftegleichgewicht der Klassen. Das eher nicht.

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Das @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social gründete sich in Kritik an "rechtlichen Verpflichtungen" durch die Schuldenbremse im GG. In ihrem neuen Fiscal Space Indikator, sind 3,5% Militärausgaben auf einmal "nicht disponibel". So schnell kann's gehen, liebes Dezernat für Aufrüstung

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

while every economic recovery has become more profitable. That is the REAL problem of the U.S. economy but Trump’s agenda will increase these trends rather than curing them. 20/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

This was driven by a dual goal: to access cheaper labor abroad and to discipline labor at home. The surge in inequality has diminshed aggregate demand, investment and productivity in the U.S. over the past four decades 19/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

One last note: This should of course not glorify the Biden years! The socio-economic misery of manufactring workers is REAL but is mainly due to a deliberate strategy by U.S. capital to outsource production. 18/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

Therefore, when trying to pass-through the tariff costs, firms are competing for a shrinking pie of aggregate profits which further discourages investment. This was quite the reverse during the Biden administration where investment and government deficit increased. 17/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

And secondly, not only aggregate demand but also aggregate profits are likely to diminish. Aggregate gross profits are - by identity - given by the sum of the government deficit, investment, net exports and spending out of profits minus saving out of wages. 16/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

With such drags on aggregate demand, it is very unlikely that unemployment will reduce to a point were workers bargaining power increases to achieve higher real wages and hence offset the negative macro effect of the tariff shock. 15/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

Exports are unlikely to boom either due to reliatory tariffs by U.S. trading partners. 14/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

Looking forward, the response of investment to the tariffs and tax cuts during the first Trump administration was very low. Since they are again not accompanied by targeted fiscal measures, an investment boom is again unlikely. 13/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

At the same time, the all-time high of uncertainty indices is choking off the investment boom of the Biden administration 12/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

...while maintaining and expanding the tax cuts for the rich under the Tax Cuts and Investment Act. Income gains for the rich and declines for the bottom 40% 11/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

But this is fundamentally different under Trump. Instead of expansionary fiscal policy, the Budget resolution from February 25th mandates drastic cuts to fiscal spending to lower income households who have a low propensity to spend… 10/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

In the U.S., due to strong fiscal packages, unemployment was super low and real wages did increase. The strong U.S. recovery allowed for both: Increasing profit share in value added due to full pass-through AND increasing real wages. 9/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

In the paper, we show that these negative macroeconomic effects can be offsett by wage growth even when though this produces somewhat higher inflation. 8/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

Capitalists have a lower propensity to consume than workers which drags aggregate demand. Foreign price shocks hence have a contractionary macroeconomic effect 7/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

The expansion of tariffs by Trump seems like the optimal setting for Sellers Inflation 2.0 – they present the most synchronized sectoral cost shock one could think of. But two things are different: 5/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

There is also evidence for a behavioral interpretation according to which firms expanded profit margins in periods of supply chain disruptions, see acharya for Europe, and @franzfranzoni with a global dataset 4/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

There is ample evidence for a structuralist interpretation of the hypothesis according to which profits played an outsized role during the past years from a historical perspective and for a range of countries (a lit review on this forthcoming) 3/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

The Sellers’ Inflation Hypothesis by @weber stated that firms took the synchronized cost shocks of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine as an implicit coordination mechanism to increase prices and profitability 2/20

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

At first glance, the Trump tariffs seem like the perfect setting for Sellers’ Inflation 2.0 – but two dynamics are fundamentally different, making the macroeconomic outcome… worse! New blog with @mnikiforos.bsky.social at @ineteconomics.bsky.social 1/20

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Reposted by @simongrothe.bsky.social

Isabella M. Weber @isabellamweber.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

"The most likely outcome of the second Trump administration is a recession and an exacerbation of inequalities, and a further degradation of the living standards of working and middle-class Americans." Must read by @mnikiforos.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social

ineteconomics.org

Distributional and Macroeconomic Effects of Trump 2.0

The most likely outcome of the second Trump administration is a recession and an exacerbation of inequalities, and a further degradation of the living standards of working and middle-class Americans.

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simongrothe.bsky.social @simongrothe.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

🫶 Wie die Unternehmer lernten, die AfD zu lieben 🫶 Ein Essay für @jacobinmagazin.bsky.social über das Scheitern des grünen Wachstumsprojekts und die Offensive von CDU und AfD gegen Sozialstaat, Löhne und Sicherheit

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Reposted by @simongrothe.bsky.social

Fred Heussner @fredheussner.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

Ihr wollt verstehen wie Kapitalismus und Rechtsruck zusammen hängen? Auf nach Tübingen! Dort gibt es Workshops und Vorträge zur antifaschistischen Ökonomik mit @skaufmann.bsky.social, @sabinenuss.bsky.social, @maxinefowe.bsky.social, @simongrothe.bsky.social und Moritz Zeiler.

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