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Simon Donner

@simondonner.bsky.social
15K followers 733 following 871 posts

Climate scientist, prof at UBC, writer, speaker, aquatic mammal, dragger of sand into the house.

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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
That reduces incentive to invest in emissions reductions beyond what is stated in the agreement. It also does so in exchange for working towards, but not necessarily achieving, the additional reductions. In sum, emissions are likely to increase even if Pathways meets the wildest expectations.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The Pathways companies could invest in other ways to cut emissions. However, this summer's agreement gave them a break on the performance benchmark tightening rate in the industrial pricing system in exchange for working towards that additional 10 Mt by 2045...
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The emissions associated with producing the bitumen for said pipeline is ~18 Mt (assuming 1 million b/day pipeline, 80% capacity, continued 1%/yr decline in emissions intensity to 2035). That exceeds the max potential removal via Pathways... meaning that oil sands emissions would keep increasing...
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
This summer's agreement between the federal government, Alberta and the five companies has Pathways down to only 6 Mt of reductions by 2035, and "pursuit" of additional 10 Mt by 2045. All of this, however, is tied to the new pipeline....
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Oil sands emissions were actually 82 Mt, not 68 Mt, at the time according to Canada's national inventory, so the plan was never truly net-zero. Since then, oil sands emissions have increased to 92 Mt (2024 data) and the ambition of Pathways has decreased.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The original Pathways plan--that of the TV, YouTube, and bus shelter ads removed because of anti-greenwashing legislation--was to reduce emissions by 68 Mt/yr to reach net-zero by 2050. The carbon capture project was the foundation of the plan...
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The fast-tracked Pacific Link pipeline is supposed to be contingent on the major oil sands companies going ahead with the Pathways carbon capture project. Let's review the math of this.🧵
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Happy National Day of Truth and Reconciliation www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
cbc.ca
West Coast oil pipeline becomes 1st project designated in national interest | CBC News
The federal and Alberta governments have announced that a proposed pipeline carrying one million barrels of oil a day from Alberta to the B.C. coast has become the first project designated in the nati...
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
In discussions outside the climate research community, I find that folks often don't realize or appreciate the permanence, on human time-scales, of today's actions and choices. What we do and choose now is vital because it will determine the future of the climate for centuries.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Folks in positions of power and authority need to internalize the fact that climate change, once it happens, is essentially irreversible. Even if we stopped adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere tomorrow, we're still stuck living with the warming to date for centuries.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Shout out to the folks at NOAA Coral Reef Watch for the daily analysis.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Global warming is juicing this El Niño event. Here's a map of satellite-derived surface ocean temperatures anomalies from Sept 21, 1997, the start of the then record-shattering 1997-98 El Niño... and the same map 29 years later.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
I appreciate how the Marvel movies are going full Fast and the Furious, just bringing back characters that definitely died or disappeared in a previous film.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
History shows us that the transformational change needed to deeply reduce emissions won't happen that way, no matter how apocalyptic the images. People also need to see the benefits of the solutions, of the world we are trying to create, not just the horrors of the one we're trying to avoid. (2/2)
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
I too wish that the wildfire smoke spreading across the eastern US and Canada would inspire deep, sustained action to reduce climate-warming emissions. We've been here many times before, mistakenly thinking that "this" will be the event that tips the scale towards action. (1/2)
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Maybe the colour bar on the maps should just be the colour of the sky at midday.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Let's not fuel this BS again, it is purely about getting attention... the four Republicans or their social media teams probably don't even believe what they are saying. www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
cbc.ca
4 Republicans in U.S. Congress accuse Canada of failing to do enough to prevent wildfires | CBC News
Republican members of U.S. Congress are slamming Canada's federal and provincial governments over what they claim is inaction in preventing the wildfires currently spreading smoke and poor air quality...
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
As smoke from heatwave-fueled wildfires spreads across eastern US and Canada, the National Academy of Sciences releases a report confirming the link between extreme events and climate change. Coincidence? Yes... but a likely one given the rise in extremes. www.nationalacademies.org/publications...
nationalacademies.org
Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts 2026
Decades of data and research indicate that human-caused climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of several types of extreme events, such as...
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
True, granted the Trump administration also cut wildfire prevention: www.npr.org/2026/05/04/n...
npr.org
Trump administration falls behind on wildfire prevention with risky fire season ahead
Many of the nation's overgrown forests are at high risk of burning. Under the Trump administration, work to reduce flammable vegetation fell by more than a million acres compared to previous years.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Appreciate how the U.S. media coverage of the terrible wildfire smoke pretty much always labels the wildfires "Canadian", as if our Parliament met and voted to export smoke to the U.S.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
When I resigned from chairing Canada's Net-Zero Advisory Body last December, we had completed an annual report (www.nzab2050.ca/publications...) full of climate policy advice. I recommend reading the introduction to the report, if not the whole report, which remains timely. Here's an excerpt:
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Read Alan's post for details on the dangerously warm overnight low temperatures during the July 4th weekend heatwave.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
True. We say "overnight" low even though the lowest temperature of the 24-hr cycle often happens shortly after (or before) sunrise.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Agreed--while I understand logistical and security challenges of keeping a library or other public building open overnight, it could really make a difference for people.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
The trends are from Canada's national observed temperature dataset, which is based on careful analysis of weather station records www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Canada’s Fourth Generation of Homogenized Surface Air Temperature and its Trends for 1948–2023
This study presents a newly developed homogenized temperature dataset aimed at enhancing the reliability of the observed temperature records for computing long-term trends. The dataset includes two...
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
High overnight temperatures are a key fingerprint of human activity on the climate. The planet is warming faster when you are asleep, in part because unlike the sun, greenhouse gases warm the planet 24 hrs a day. Here is the daytime high vs. overnight low temperature trends for Canada since 1948.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
When I look at heatwave forecasts, I focus on that overnight low, like the shocking 27 C for NYC. "Tropical nights", when temps stayed above 20 C / 68 F, drove much of the mortality during past European heatwaves, and 2021 Pacific NW heat dome. Inability to cool off overnight is the silent killer.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Record daytime high temperatures and heat indices are getting all the attention in this N American heatwave, as in the recent European heatwave. As big a health risk is the high overnight temperatures; inability to cool off overnight is a primary driver of sickness and death during heatwaves.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Definitely would not have predicted that the only player remaining from the Raptors championship team seven years later would be Kawhi Leonard.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Just suggesting that the benefits of the solutions may be a more effective way to inspire the public.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
When you are making a big decision, you need something to run toward, not just something to run away from. Climate action needs to be about the world we are trying to create--one with less air pollution, more efficient machines, etc.--not only the world we are trying to avoid. (3/3)
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
I certainly hope the devastating European heat wave, and the El Niño-juiced forecast for the next year, inspires people and governments to take deep climate action. Yet history and the complexity of the transformation required, suggests that no one event, no matter how bad, will be enough. (2/3)
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Since the sweltering day 38 years ago that James Hansen sat in front of the US Congress and announced that global warming "is here", we keep making the mistake of thinking this will be the heat wave, the storm, the flood that forces the world to take climate action. (1/3)
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Great interview about our Urban Future Walks project! You can register for a free tour here: urbanfuturewalks.com podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/c...
podcasts.apple.com
Can a Walk Downtown Change Your Mind on Climate?
Podcast Episode · The Jas Johal Show · June 24 · Bonus · 13m
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
The European heatwave is not the new normal. "Normal" is going to keep changing until we stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The more we emit, the more the planet warms, the more people suffer, that is the basic math of climate change.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
A Q&A about our Urban Future Walks project, which involves completely free guided tours of downtown Vancouver news.ubc.ca/2026/06/down... (Register here: urbanfuturewalks.com)
news.ubc.ca
Can a walk through downtown Vancouver change how we think about climate change? - UBC News
UBC researchers are exploring new ways to engage people on climate change through Urban Future Walks, an experience that highlights real-world sustainability solutions in Vancouver through guided, vir...
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
It is very reminiscent of the 2021 heat dome here in the Pacific Northwest, which started just after the solstice, when there's ~18 hours of daylight in much of British Columbia.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
A key feature of the devastating European heatwave is the timing. Summer heatwaves are most common in late July and early August, as in 2003 when >70,000 people died. This one is right at the summer solstice, which while early, means longer days and less time for the land to cool off overnight.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Check out this new limited podcast from @nationalobserver.com that traces the five stages of grief about our rapidly changing world. In episode 2, I have some blunt things to say about the harms done by clickbait climate doom-ism.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Thanks Stephen!
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Reposted by Simon Donner
UBC Oceans @ubcoceans.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
"You can't be saying these deals are still compatible with net-zero by 2050. They're not. The deal is not compatible with it. Just be honest with Canadians about this." said @simondonner.bsky.social @ubcgeography.bsky.social @ires.ubc.ca www.cbc.ca/news/politic... via @cbcnews.ca
cbc.ca
'Be honest with Canadians': Ex-member of top climate body criticizes Alberta pipeline deal | CBC News
A former member of Canada's top climate body said the pipeline deal Canada signed with Alberta is incompatible with Carney government's net-zero target.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
I am testifying before the House of Commons' Environment and Sustainable Development committee on Tues June 9 at 3:30 pm EDT about why I resigned from Canada's Net-Zero Advisory Body. You can watch live, if that's your jam... www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentView...
ourcommons.ca
Notice of Meeting - ENVI (45-1) - No. 43 - House of Commons of Canada
Notice of Meeting - ENVI (45-1) - No. 43 - House of Commons of Canada
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
The business case for LNG just keeps getting weaker... www.nationalobserver.com/2026/06/03/o...
nationalobserver.com
The business case for LNG just keeps getting weaker
Sorry, haters: Justin Trudeau is still right about the lack of a business case for east coast LNG exports. There might not be very good one for west coast exports, either.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
New modelling supports what many have been saying about the Canada-Alberta deal. It is bad emissions math. This may lock Canada into a industrial C pricing system that is far too weak to make up for concessions around a new pipeline, carbon capture, etc. 440megatonnes.ca/insight/cana...
440megatonnes.ca
New analysis finds Canada-Alberta MOU leaves emissions largely unchanged
The Canada-Alberta MOU substantially changes how climate policy works in Canada, but does little to improve Canada's long-term emissions ...
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Interesting debate about the limits of pressuring investors on climate change action, which is essentially an argument for strengthening climate policy. www.climatechangenews.com/2026/06/03/i...
climatechangenews.com
Green group closes down, blaming "limits" of shareholder activism
Canadian campaign group Investors for Paris Compliance shut in May, saying efforts to push companies to tackle climate change have become less effective
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Reposted by Simon Donner
Mark Mac Lean @marktmaclean.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
This is a devastating loss. Dr Raúl Pacheco-Vega, a UBC alumnus and former UBC faculty member, was a warm and engaging human being who put great effort into supporting students and other early career researchers develop their scholarship. Such an authentic person. He will be greatly missed.
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
How the Words "Be Average" Saved Me open.substack.com/pub/mypublis...
open.substack.com
How the Words "Be Average" Saved Me
Getting past the inner perfectionist that hates everything you do
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Why I'm worried: i) lack of details in the Alberta deal about the benchmark tightening rate (given ample research and advice), ii) deal's language around "cost sharing" on contracts for difference; could turn a good idea into subsidizing high-emitting companies that can afford emissions cuts
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Hope for meaningful emissions cuts from industrial pricing now rest heavily on negotiations around tightening the emissions benchmarks and the delivery of "contracts for difference", which encourage companies to act by locking in the future carbon price (regardless of future policy changes). (1/2)
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Simon Donner @simondonner.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
... and there it is. The Canadian gov't has officially cut the rate of increase in the industrial carbon price by 75%, matching the deal with Alberta. Sadly predictable. You let one province weaken a federal policy, and it reverberates nationally. www.canada.ca/en/environme...
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