iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

RCs: Each RC gets a set of basic lands typical for the region where RC takes place. Top 100 gets additional foil, serialised set with RC location and date. Lands are changed every year but for a year each RC in the region gets the same promos. Congrats Australia ;) 5/

120

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Kamigawa: Titanbreach: 1st Ozolith, T8 Kodama of the West Tree, all: Tamiyo's Safekeeping Zhalfir: 1st: Solitude, T8: Grand Abolisher, all: Teferi, Time Raveler 4/

110

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

SC promos. Thematically linked. 1st - value commander textless, T8: Themed Value card, all: commander staple Nauctis: 1st: Force of Will, t8: Lord of Atlantis, all: Offer u can't refuse Darkhold Destiny*: 1st The Soul Stone, t8: Mjolnir, all: themed art Bolt Bend 2/

100

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

My idea for Magic promos: Spotlight: Fetch lands for the foreseeable future. 4 Spotlights reward one type of fetch, 16 Spotlights per year, so 4 fetches per year - we'd get 2.5 years of fetch promos. Normal for participation, foil SERIALISED for top 100 with spotlight name. 1/5

281

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

My latest Magic Numbers on early FRA data is out. This set is dope and dope sets make data tougher to interpret. No more straightforward looking up the win rate. But some interesting things pop out. Like G is a better support color you can splash in than base for 5C. 1/2

1151

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

In case you are wondering how busted is the R Ajani in FRA draft. I started measuring cross-format win rates in Midnight Hunt, by normalising win rates across sets. Since then only 34 cards of 7871 analysed got >60% WR. Zero cards got >63%, but Ajani is 65%. Outlier of outliers.

0292

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Today: evolutionary biology, ecology and draft metagames. A new format is upon us, so some thoughts on how to read an emerging limited metagame, and maybe metagames in general. Magic will appear, but first some biology, you can survive it - you are fit. 🧵 1/14

1181

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

New Magic Numbers are up on YT. Our eccentric, deck-centric set review looks at how my esteemed guest (see below for how to find them) would build decks for all 10 supported archetypes. Through that we learn about the set, synergies, removal data, etc. youtu.be/N99E4pfp0_w 1/4

161

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Join me, Rosemary Tea and Springbok7 live now for our traditional Skeleton Crew. We will be looking at Reality Fracture draft deck skeletons in out eccentric, deck-centric set review. twitch.tv/sierkovitz

051

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

My group coaching set review was a great experience - we spent hours talking about the FRA and evaluation strategies. So time to try it again - this time the aim of the session will be evaluation of early FRA data and learning on what to do and don't with early 17Lands data. 1/2

280

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Thanks to WotC I had the pleasure to participate at least a bit in the Early Access event and boy, do I regret I didn't have more time. Set played phenomenally. Wins, losses all felt fun. And it's a format like we didn't have in years: here's game duration from 3 drafts: 1/4

2210

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Lastly a funny discovery that may lead to something. Initially I looked at survival curves in half-turn intervals not full turn cycle. I noticed, the curve looks weird and thought there is an error - they go up and down all the time: 12/

110

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Lastly - how does winner's life total look like at the end of the game? For both sets there is a clear P/D effect. More games end with winner at 5 or less life: in MSH 19% of games on the draw end like this, only 13.5% on the play. Similar trends for 6-10 and 11-15 life. 9/

110

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

This is potentially set-specific, so I checked SOS too. But the curves look similar - the breaking point is slightly later at T8-9. Interestingly in both cases 17L users lose advantage earlier than their opponents. Still have to wrap my head around why would that be. 8/

110

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Here's where it gets interesting. In longer games on the play advantage is small but persists until resistance is finally broken in a couple of turns. On the draw, losing player has, on average, life total advantage until T7-8, when they run out of steam and collapse. 7/

110

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Otherwise, the sample sizes for each turn cycle would be uneven and potentially confusing. So here is a survival curve for MSH for games that lasted 7 turns. First thing that should strike you is similarity - those are pairs of basically identical graphs with flipped colors. 4/

110

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I've been thinking about life recently. But not as you know it. Life total and how it changes across a game of limited. So here is a thread based on 17L draft replay data for MSH and SOS. We'll see a cumulative trend survival curves and final life total. 1/15

290

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The consensus is W and R landcyclers are great. And I agree with that - landcycling removal spell and a practical Imperial Oath both look amazing. But I want to put a bit of a spotlight on this little? fella? instead and at least provide you with food for thought. 3/3

0110

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

It aligns well with what I think B wants to do, there's a promising reanimate spell, Honey Mammoth-ish in Black is a neat design, and it hits like a truck, making blocking favourably a nightmare. All those elements make me want to play a copy or two. 2/

170

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

OK - I will attempt a "hot" take. I think this might be sneakily the best landcycler in FRA draft. Not far miles off the Troll, despite being worse in every aspect. But being worse than a Vintage Cube staple banned in Legacy is not a knock on draft common. 1/3

2190

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Tuesday: a group session on card evaluation, using Fractured Reality commons. Limited card evaluation is a skill you can practise. This is practice with the reasoning shown — my process, out loud, card by card. 10 spots available! 1/2

1101

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

If you tend to blame your failings in Magic on variance while attributing successes to skill, you'll never become a good player. That's because your player mentality is defined by your sense of entitlement to win and not by your willingness to improve.

37511

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Had a work away day and they dropped some random stickers on the table and make a sticker based CV to use to introduce ourselves. I found this one too late but I guess thank Uni for providing it.

050

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Join me in the recording of the latest Magic Numbers. Today I will be looking at how is pick 2 draft different from the regular one. If you like pick 2 draft - learn more. If you hate it - at least you will end up with an evidence-based hatred. ttv // Sierkovitz

1100

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Thoughts about growth today. And I know a lot about that - I am a microbiologist in the end. I have seen it 100s of times. The humble beginnings, the dynamic growth, that feeling of nothing can go wrong, stagnation and then the inevitable death phase of bacterial culture. 1/15

1276

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Join me now if you want to hear me rambling merrily about the right cards for right decks in Hobbit draft! ttv // sierkovitz

050

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

So, some new developments in my Magic career: I decided to join Metafy for coaching. If you are struggling with Limited, want to improve, or just cant get enough of my dad-jokes, this might be for you. Check out my profile and join the free membership while you ponder. 1/3

181

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Early data for Hobbit from 17Lands is here and you can join me now to get the info that will help you win more of your draft. What are the hidden gems? What are the traps? What makes each color pair tick? Join me at ttv // sierkovitz

0131

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

So obviously there are multiple caveats, and Shock comparison was not possible so I took next best things from Arena Powered cube. Looking at card baseline win, format baseline win and deck inclusion rates, here are the extra wins that can be contributed to those 4 cards:

2131

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

I'm on a roll with my bargain hunting. New mail day resulted in some Beta and Arabian Nights cards. I never owned any, so that's the first. And a pile of Unlimited lands and OG Snow-Covered ones. £16 this time.

3170

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

As for Uncommons - this is where removal lives. Bothersome Noisemaker and Prowler have >67% opening hand win rate, showing the importance of impactful 2-drops. And we finally see some W and G cards. Mirkwood Pathmaker was particularly impressive when I played against it. 10/

181

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Card to watch: Gandalf, Wandering Wizard. Win Rate is mid, but it's played in bad decks. On a small sample size it has an impressive 11%p IIH Worth maybe giving it a spin in one f the games to see how it performs. I'm not making any promises, but it potentially underrated. 9/

230

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

The R deal 3 spell is finally good. Pinecone strike is not as dominant as I thought it would be but certainly is strong. As one of the few optionsto stem the early bleeding - it looked impressive. I think it just is not great in BR decks and does much better in slower WR. 8/

130

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

U commons focus on drawing the 2nd card. I was low on Long Lake Nuisance but numbers prove I was wrong about it. A consolation is the high WR of Tarmogoyf, sorry, Lakeshore Apothecary I was high on in previews. Bilbo and Instructor were a shoe-in for top commons and delivered. 7/

130

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Last 2 B cards in the top 10 commons look more like they are piggybacking, meaning their win rate is a corollary of color pairs they are in being just strong. Still, we need solid playables in our deck and Bilbo's Deadly Slice and Stony-Voiced Goblins certainly are those. 6/

120

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Next we have a powerful Equipment package in black: Crude Bent Blade and Goblin Plate Mail both impressed me and I already had high hopes for those. Especially Blade - the power boost, cheap equip cost make any 2/2 into a proper threat. Those 2 also have a high IIH. 5/

130

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

The shocking top card after day 1 is Gollum, Silent Slinker (cross your Ts next time WotC). But this may not be a fluke. The lead is substantial and it also has a very high Improvement In Hand - usually indicating card is driving deck's win rate rather than piggybacking. 4/

140

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

As for individual cards, at common B is dominating. But U seems to be close behind, given low win rates of U decks this is a strong suggestion U might be the most powerful individual color that gets slightly hampered by its companion colors. 3/

150

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Early data for the format is out and it's better than I predicted. Yes, Simic is trailing, but the difference between Rakdos and the rest is not big. Community came prepared and drafted RB high enough that the lane was not outrageously open. Other pairs did well too. 1/11

1214

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Important day 1 of the format PSA. Bifur doubles triggers on Dwarves with Enduring Story. There is plenty of Ward going around too. Ward is a triggered ability. So targeting something with removal with one extra mana to pay Ward 1, is not a good idea with storied Bifur on board.

1270

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Skeleton episode is up and I try to lay out my predictions for the format. Starting with how removal looks like and what are the consequences of that, through some, what I think are, ground rules for day 1 up to a neat collection of decks I built based on my pondering. youtu.be/xbswbxO6beQ

091

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Going live with the Skeletons stream, this time solo. I will be talking about the upcoming set through the lens of decks rather than individual cards. Join me at ttv / Sierkovitz

050

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Here are some of my 5+ win decks from the last week (RG one 7-1ed). They don't look anything like what will people remember format by. Had the color power been more balanced, we may have gotten this healthy meta earlier. 3/4

130

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

🏆 I wanted to send Marvel Super Heroes on a high and behold this absolute masterpiece. Tons of micro synergies but not going ham on any of them. Rewrite history (that is the blue plan you see P13 in the pack) was smashing here. Ant-Men, Moon Girl all triggered reliably. 1/4

2120

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Furthermore both in WR, BR and BG there are some incredibly aggressive 1-drop into 2-drop curveouts available, I selected a couple to showcase it, and decks without R or W will have a hard time dealing with those. That makes me very sceptical of UG in this set. 6/

2110

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

The unprecedented abundance of X/2s has, of course, some knock on effect on other sizings. Both X/3s and X/4s are both at all-time lows. There are reasonable numbers of creatures with toughness 5 or greater so the whole set is designed on a U-Curve - another first. 5/

180

Sierkovitz @sierkovitz.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

That is an unprecedented number. If we look at sizing of the common creatures since Kaldheim, Hobbit is first. And yes, it is a small set so there can be larger stat swings, but SPM and TMT were also small sets and were not even close to HOB, so something is definitely on. 3/

180