iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Looking to 2025: Data center buildout continues but challenges remain - skilled labor shortages, multi-year waits for key equipment, permitting delays. Success will favor companies with established market positions and cash flows over pure-play, commoditized cleantech.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Manufacturing reshoring + data center construction now exceed $250B annual spend, 2x+ from 2021. Grid modernization capex up 25-50% from historical levels. Natural gas turbine orders hit decade-high growth rate.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

AI & data centers creating massive power demand. Utilities project 25-130GW new capacity needed by 2030 (current base ~25GW), driving grid infrastructure investments and benefiting established industrial players.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Post related to pod: 2024 saw major divergence in clean energy stocks: Traditional cleantech (solar, wind, batteries) fell 25-35% while cleantech-adjacent industries like power equipment and HVAC showed strength, particularly in data center infrastructure. www.shanumathew.com/2024-cleante...

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

We can and should try to overcome some of the industry's challenges around build timelines and cost overruns, some driven by regulatory constraints but others from poor operational track record too. Point is there are real obstacles to growth and its no silver bullet.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

"[Sizewell C] is due to start generating in 2029 at the earliest, and cost up to £46bn. That compares with initial expectations from 2016 that it would start at the end of 2025 and cost £18bn." Where else is 4 years and $30 billion off budget acceptable? ft.com/content/0b48...

ft.com

Cost of Sizewell C nuclear project expected to reach close to £40bn

Final price tag for building new power plant is likely to be double 2020 estimate

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

Despite being heralded as model nuclear nation, France's EDF faces mounting debt from delays & cost overruns. Auditors warn against new builds until better prepared, as their 6-reactor plan hits €80B & projects like Flamanville-3 finished 12 years late. bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

French Socialist Head Says May Be Near Accord With Government

France’s Socialist Party may be nearing an agreement with Prime Minister Francois Bayrou in which it would support the government in exchange for concessions on a contentious reform of the pension sys...

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

I'm all the above energy and pro-nukes + normal caveats. Nuke bros - keep the same energy when we see headlines & stories like this. -EDF Must Not Rush Into New Nuclear Projects, Auditor Says - Cost of Sizewell C nuclear project expected to reach close to £40bn

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

A fire-resistant home in LA survived devastating wildfires due to strategic design: minimal vegetation, concrete walls, simple roof lines, and fire-rated materials. This highlights how architectural choices could help protect homes as climate change intensifies wildfire risks.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

AI boom is fueling massive datacenter and power infrastructure buildout, but critical mismatch exists: compute adapts in months while power takes years to deploy. Lag is potentially causing overordering of power capacity, mirroring past boom-bust cycles but w/ long lead times.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

Biden's order fast-tracks AI infrastructure by letting companies build data centers on federal land and streamlines power grid connections. Key shift: federal sites can help speed up permitting and interconnection for both data centers and clean power facilities.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

Has anyone confirmed these $ or do they just assume a market price * the tons announced? "Microsoft, Google and others have recently invested close to $300 million in startups that believe they can realize that goal and develop carbon credits in the process."

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

"American household electricity consumption grew at an accelerated clip over the past five years amid hotter and longer summers, data going back to the late 1990s from the US Energy Information Administration show"

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

Fortress announces funds managed by affiliates have acquired assets of APR Energy, comprising 30 mobile gas-powered turbines with a combined energy generation capacity of 850 megawatts. The turbines are immediately available for deployment [for datacenters]

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

The US plans massive gas power expansion: Enverus forecasts 80 new plants by 2030 (+46GW, 20% more than last 5 years). Wood Mackenzie and S&P project it can get even faster growth at 35-66% increase over 5 years, driven by AI computing demands and need for reliable power.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

Excited to share that I got the opportunity to make an appearance on one of my favorite energy transition podcasts, 🎙Redefining Energy hosted by Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid! We discussed market performance and outlooks for Cleantech and 'Cleantech-adjacent' equities. Listen below!

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

+111% trailing 1Y* obvious if you look at 1Y chart but to avoid confusion

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

CEG +25% on the day (reminder was +111% pre-announce). Market telling you it likes purchase price. Believes in load growth. Likes angle of nuclear + gas & sees growth in TX and CA. Calpine operates 79 facilities totaling 27.7 GW, mainly in TX, PJM, & CA; mainly natural gas.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Moar Power deals (maybe): Virginia Transformer is exploring a sale that could value them at $6 billion+, amid soaring demand. "Hitachi Energy, the world’s largest producer of transformers, in November warned that the industry is overwhelmed and unable to meet exploding demand"

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Hold politicians accountable. Do deserve blame for being asleep at wheel. BUT ALSO keep the same energy when funding plans are proposed to invest proactively into infrastructure. Transparency & accountability key here. Need to see where $ go and if they're spent well vs. grift.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Over the MT-LT, Climate change AMPLIFIES CONSEQUENCES OF POOR PLANNING and INCREASES VULNERABILITY POINTS. This reality should drive preventative action and infrastructure hardening TODAY. Scorecard doesn't get judged until future but it's moot after crisis hits.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The pushback against using climate change as a universal scapegoat is HEALTHY SOCIETAL DISCOURSE. Rather than an excuse for inaction, climate risks should catalyze immediate, concrete steps to strengthen infrastructure and build community resilience IN ADVANCE OF DISASTER.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Power M&A is so back: AEP agreed to sell a minority stake in its transmission business to KKR & Co. and Canada’s PSP Investments for $2.8 billion. Acquire a ~20% interest in AEP’s Ohio, Indiana and Michigan transmission companies. Investing in tx as electricity use set to surge.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Deal driven by AI data center power demand boom. Merger combines nuclear leader with major gas/geothermal player, expanding footprint in key markets like TX/CA where AI computing is driving electricity demand growth. wsj.com/business/dea...

wsj.com

Constellation Energy Agrees to Buy Calpine for $16.4 Billion

The merger combines two of the country’s largest power generators as demand for electricity surges.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Constellation buying Calpine for $16.4B in stock/cash + $12.7B debt (8x '26 EBITDA). Combined co. will have ~60GW capacity across nuclear, gas, renewables spanning US coast-to-coast. Major presence in TX, CA, NY, PA. Creates leading retail energy provider serving 2.5M customers.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

NYT article mentioned: "Fires in 2017 and 2018 wiped out a full quarter-century of profits for insurers, leading many carriers to reduce the number of homeowners they covered." nytimes.com/2025/01/08/c...

nytimes.com

California Wildfires Threaten Insurers Already Teetering From Climate Shocks

Companies started pulling back from the state as earlier fires made it harder to turn a profit. Experts warn the exodus could grow.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Good summary from Claude after feeding a few articles, will share a helpful NYT one in the replies to this. It's a doom loop. "The fundamental challenge is pricing climate risk accurately while keeping insurance accessible"

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

+Munich Re published 2024's natural disasters caused $320B in losses ($140B insured), w/ weather events driving 93%. $136B from floods/fires, $135B from cyclones. Year ranked 3rd for insured losses since 1980, exceeding 10/30yr averages ($236B/$181B total, $94B/$61B insured).

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

The preliminary estimate of financial impacts from the LA fires rank the incident among the costliest ever natural disasters in US, and likely nation’s most expensive ever wildfire.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Pros: Merging at 9x EBITDA creates one of largest U.S. IPP company with $400M+ savings and solid growth, below current IPP valuations. Cons: Losing nuclear focus and adding debt raises concerns, while PE selling could signal peak valuations and trigger wider consolidation.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Constellation in talks to buy Calpine in a deal close to $30 billion. Calpine is a privately held independent power producer w/ 77 generation facilities across 22 states and Canada. Adds fuel diversity with experience in gas, geothermal and renewables to CEG's nuke fleet.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Nuanced takes here! CA wildfires increasing due to climate change and fire suppression policies. While current fire levels match pre-1800s, climate change is amplifying trend. Solutions need to focus on future mgmt rather than debating historical causes. nintil.com/wildfires-ca...

nintil.com

Nintil - Wildfires in California (I)

The internet's best blog!

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

As insurers quit California over wildfire costs, residents are forced into the state's FAIR Plan—now covering $458B in property. But last-resort insurance pool could collapse in a major fire, leaving all Californians to cover the losses. FL same issue diff cause.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Winds have always sparked CA fires, but climate change has created pattern: wet springs grow more vegetation that becomes kindling during dry summers. When winter winds hit parched landscape packed w/ homes traditional ways of managing risk via insurance collapse.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

Remember when NVIDIA was a gaming company? How quickly fortunes can change - right time, right place.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

Apparently at the press conference today, Trump also suggested: -Need to double electricity capacity with AI coming along -Building electric facilities alongside plant and selling extra output back to the public

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

Damac Group CEO Hussain Sajwani announced a planned $20+ billion investment to build data centers across 8 US states: Texas, Arizona, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and Indiana. The announcement was made alongside President-elect Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

McKinsey forecasts data center demand growth: 31GW (+6GW) in 2025, 9GW in 2026, 11GW in 2027-28, and 9-13GW annually in 2029-30. Major acceleration expected late 2027, raising questions about timing of forward curve pricing impacts.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

McKinsey: Companies are expanding their environment/nature-related targets to beyond carbon and the proportion of companies focusing on multiple dimensions of targets is increasing. Biodiversity saw the largest percentage increase.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

EIA provides net capacity additions (or in some fuel sources, net subtractions) over time as well as forward capacity installation projections and the additional capacity figure continues to tick up materially. Net additions of Nat Gas towards back half of decade picking up.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

What a visual: CA interconnection applications accepted per month

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

Meeting the total unconstrained amount means: -Doubling current solar deployment rates -Building one 1,500 MW gas plant every 2 years for 15 years -40% increase in transmission capacity -More than doubling energy imports from other states

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

[Virginia's] state’s energy demand was flat 2006-2020 b/c, even though population increased, offset by energy efficiency. However, independent forecast shows that unconstrained demand for power in VA would 2x w/in next 10yrs, w/ data center industry being main driver.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

Great piece w/ 2 big ideas 1) Cloud providers need cost-efficient models while AI labs chase performance at any price 2) As compute gets cheaper, we're approaching an inflection point: when does AI reasoning power per dollar overtake knowledge worker salaries?

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

"US-built infrastructure and lots of it... it is wild how difficult it has become to build things in the US. Power plants, data centers, any of that kind of stuff. I understand how bureaucratic cruft builds up, but it’s not helpful to the country in general... And the US really needs to lead AI."

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

"One of my learnings, looking back, is everybody says they’re not going to screw up the relative ranking of important versus urgent, and everybody gets tricked by urgent." Love the Eisenhower matrix.

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Shanu Mathew @shanumathew.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

"Electric vehicles are expected to outsell cars with internal combustion engines in China for the first time next year, in a historic inflection point that puts the world’s biggest car market years ahead of western rivals."

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