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Shane Oliver

@shaneoliver.bsky.social
215 followers 5 following 1.9K posts

Chief Economist & Head of Inv Strategy, AMP. Into boats, pop music, nature, economics, investing, my family…& being nice. I don’t solicit funds or spruik trading schemes.

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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Eurozone shares +0.5% US shares +0.6%, Nas +0.5%…with optimism for Sept qtr earnings growth US 10 yr yld -3bp to 5.28% Brent oil +1% to $101.1..with rise in Iran ship attacks Gold +0.5% to $4163.8 Iron ore -0.3% to $91.15 Bitcoin $85.5k ASX futures -0.01% $A 0.6981 with $US -0.2%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Westpac/MI consumer confidence -4.7% to 80.4, with readings post the rate hike falling to just 67.2%. Higher fuel prices also impacting. Falls were largest for those with a mortgage. Points to a slump in consumer spending & may help head off the need for another RBA hike.
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Eurozone shares +0.1% US shares +0.1%, Nas +0.7% US 10 yr yld +3bp to 5.31% Brent oil -2.5% to $100.1 Gold flat $4142.7 Iron ore +0.1% to $91.45 Bitcoin $85.8k ASX futures +0.3% $A 0.697 with $US flat
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 53%=final ~53%,Oct avg 64 Mel 56%=final ~53%,Oct avg 64 Long wkend in Syd & clearances helped by listings being around -30%yoy, but rising spring listings & weak demand due to rate hikes, tax hikes & poor confidence will keep clearances depressed. #ausecon
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Eurozone shares +0.9% (-1.2% wk) US shares +0.7% (-0.3% wk)..as benign jobs data cooled Fed rate fears a bit US 10 yr yld +3bp to 5.27% Brent oil +0.4% to $102.7..G7 releasing 100m barrels crude & diesel Gold-0.9% to $4141 Iron ore -0.4% to $91.4 Bitcoin $84.5k ASX futures +0.3% $A 0.694 w $US -0.2%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
US Sep payrolls just +29k, prior 2 mths revised -60k, 3 mth avg fell to 51k, unemp +0.1 to 4.2% but due to a higher participation. Wages just 0.1%mom/3%yoy. A goldilocks report - not too hot/not too cold - eases overheating fears & takes some pressure of Fed. (EvercoreISI charts)
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Rising bond yields - from TINA to TARA; low risk premiums & correction risk; RBA may have done enough…but hi risk of another hike; home prices have more to fall; booming tax revenue => Aust budget should be in surplus www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
amp.com.au
Weekly Market Update - 02-10-2026 - AMP
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
In our latest podcast My & I discuss how the AI boom, chip and energy costs, gov spending & geo pressures are adding to inflation. We also explore how higher rates bring infl down, whether there are fairer alternatives & what next for RBA. youtube.com/watch?v=-vWn...
youtube.com
Is AI Making Inflation Worse? #184
YouTube video by Simplifying Investing Podcast
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Eurozone shares -1.5% US shares +0.2% with Jefferson signalling patience on rates US 10 yr yld -4bp to 5.24% Brent oil flat at $103.5…US considering carrier & troops for mid East Gold +0.5% to $4180 Iron ore -1.4% to $91.9 Bitcoin $84.5k ASX futures +0.5% $A 0.793 w $US +0.4%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Sept Cotality data shows Aust home prices down again with prior months getting revised down. Expect more falls ahead as poor affordability, rising rates, tax hikes, poor confidence depress demand with a rising risk of higher distressed sales on rate hikes & rising unemp.
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Eurozone shares -0.8% US shares -0.25%, Nas +0.2%…despite downwards revision to core PCE, oil up US 10 yr yld +5bp to 5.29%..ditto Brent oil +0.9% to $103.5 Gold +1.7% to $90.4 Iron ore -3.6% to $93.2 Bitcoin $83.7k ASX futures -0.5% $A 0.6945 w $US index flat
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
amp.com.au
Olivers Insights - A hawkish hike from the RBA - AMP
As widely expected, the RBA hikes 0.25% to 4.6%, as upside risks to inflation have “materialised.”
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Eurozone shares +0.3% US shares -0.2%, Nas -0.1% US 10 yr yld flat at 4.24% Brent oil -3.2% to $102.6 with Saudi Arabia restoring East West pipeline to half capacity Gold +1.2% to $4182.6 Iron ore flat at $96.7 Bitcoin $83.5k ASX futures -0.1% $A 0.6973 with $US index +0.2%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
RBA +0.25 to 4.6%, citing materialising upside infl risks, higher energy prices & their flow thru, AI demand & capacity constraints. The RBA warned it will hike again if needed. We think it wont need to hike again & see an extended hold to mid 2027, but risk of another hike is hi
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Aust Aug household spending was flat & -0.3% ex fuel, with weakness in discretionary. May be the start of a slowdown on the back of rate hikes, -ve wealth effects, higher fuel. Its too early to tell for sure as it followed 3 strong mths, but it warns against multiple rate hikes
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Eurozone shares flat US shares -0.8%, Nas -0.9%..as oil prices & bond yields up US 10 yr yld +8bp to 5.24% Brent oil +1.4% to $105.9 with fading hopes for US/Iran deal Gold -3.6% to $4131.4 Iron ore -0.2% to $96.7 Bitcoin $83.4 ASX futures +0.1% $A 0.7017 with $US index +0.3%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 51=final ~51%,Aug avg 66 Mel 52%=final ~49%,Aug avg 66 Long wkend in Mel, but rising spring listings in Syd & weak demand on the back of rate hikes, tax hikes & poor confidence is depressing clearances. Expect further weakness. #ausecon
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Eurozone shares +0.5% (+0.8% wk) US shares +0.5% (+1.2% wk),Nas +0.5%..with oil down on hopes for deal (altho Irans offer sounds like Jun deal) US 10 yr yld -4bp to 5.16% Brent oil -2.1% to $104.4 Gold +0.2% to $4284.8 Iron ore +0.1% to $96.85 Bitcoin $83.9k $A 0.7019 w $US -0.2%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Weekly economic and market update - ongoing bond yield surge; the threat to shares; petrol prices; AI-nnihilation exaggerated; expect a hawkish hike from the RBA; IGR highlights need for spending cuts; Evie parts 1, 2 & 3 www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
amp.com.au
Weekly market update - 25-09-2026 - AMP
Global share markets mostly rose over the last week helped by strong US economic data, a return of AI optimism and renewed hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Strait of Hormuz blockage.
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Eurozone shares -0.4% US shares flat with oil up (despite reports of US/Iran talking of deal to reopen Hormuz) & bond yields up US 10 yr yld +9bp to 5.2% Brent oil +3.3% to $106.8 Gold -0.2% to $4272 Iron ore -0.1% to $96.8 Bitcoin $84.3k ASX futures -0.3% $A 0.701 w $US +0.3%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Messy Aust jobs report: unemp up to 4.646% & full time emp -6k but total emp +40k, hrs worked rose 0.7%mom, underemp fell to 6.2% & participation rose to 67.1%. Also some statistical noise with an incoming sample having higher unemp than outgoing. Unlikely to prevent a hike Tues
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Here’s a webinar I did yesterday with the ABA on the Australian housing market. youtube.com/watch?v=yGHU...
youtube.com
Economics Webinar - Housing What's Happening in Australia's Housing Market Property Crash or Cycli
YouTube video by Australian Banking Association
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Eurozone shares +0.1% US shares flat, Nas +0.5% US 10 yr yld +1bp to 4.96% Oil -1.3% to $94.6 on Saudi moves to open pipe,Trump said “very good” US/Iran meeting despite renewed annihilation threat Gold +0.4% to $4362 Iron ore -0.5% to $97.05 Bitcoin $86.2k ASX futures +0.2% $A 0.7108 w $US flat
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Eurozone shares +1.3% US shares +1.5%, Nas +2.3% with AI optimism and oil down on signs of more ships thru Strait & hopes for diplomacy US 10 yr yld -5bp to 4.95% Oil -4.5% to $95.8 Gold -0.8% to $4343 Iron ore -0.1% to $97.5 Bitcoin $86.6k ASX futures +0.3% $A 0.712 w $US +0.1%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Aust petrol prices ~$2.35/litre have caught up to the rebound in oil prices pushing the wkly petrol bill back to near Mar record hi. If oil keeps pushing up to say $150 petrol could easily push thru $2.70. Another cut to fuel excise is possible but is just another band aid solution
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Cotality Aust home prices Sept mth to date: Syd -0.9% (-1.4% mthly rate) Mel -0.5% Bri -0.9% Ade -0.9% Per -0.7% 5 city avg -0.8% (-1.2% mthly rate) The downturn continues driven by rate hikes, tax hikes on investors & poor confidence. Likely to continue out to around the Jun qtr
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 48%=final ~46%,Aug avg 66 Mel 57%=final ~54%,Aug avg 66 A rise in listings with demand hit further by talk of 2 rate hikes on investors, with ongoing impact of tax hikes & poor conf saw clearances fall. Syd back to mid yr lows. Expect further weakness. #ausecon
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Eurozone shares -1.4% (-1.4% wk) US shares +0.2% (-0.1% wk), Nas +0.7%..chipmakers up US 10 yr yld +7bp to 5% Oil -0.9% to $100.3 Gold +0.9% to $4378.6 Iron ore +0.5% to $97.55 Bitcoin $80.9k ASX futures -0.65% $A 0.7112 with $US 0.03%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Hard to be precise…but One Nation’s immigration policy announced this week implies a fall in Australia’s population for three years then about 0.8% growth pa v around 1.1% pa under Labor. It would imply about 110k pa less underlying housing demand for 3 years then about 30k pa less.
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
RBA Governor Bullock’s parliamentary testimony is hawkish seeing upside risks to inflation materialising including around energy costs, the AI boom & excess capacity, but not too concerned about house prices. We expect a hike this mth and see another Nov as 50/50.
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Eurozone shares +0.9% US shares +1.1%, Nas +1.7%..oil down on some easing in supply fears & a bit of sell on rumour buy on fact re Fed US 10 yr yld -9bp to 4.93% Oil -0.8% to $101.1 Gold +1.6% to $4344 Iron ore +0.1% to $97.05 Bitcoin $76.4k ASX futures +0.5% $A 0.7109 w $US flat
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Population growth remains strongest in WA followed by Queensland and Victoria. Tasmania is the weakest.
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Aust Mar qtr population grth +0.5%qoq/+1.4%yoy to 27.9m Net migration was +292k y yoy, down from hi of 556k over yr to Sep 2023. Natural grth was 101k yoy The fall in net migration has slowed which is why further measures are needed if Gov is to hit its +225k forecast in 2027-28
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
No surprise that President Trump is upset with the Fed’s rate hike but 1/ were it not for the tariffs & the Iran War’s impact on energy prices the Fed probably would not have had to hike 2/ the main reason the US has a trade/current account deficit is because of its huge budget deficit!
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Fed 0.25% to 3.75-4% as exp with Warsh citing concerning inflation & solid labour mkt. Grth & infl forecasts revised up. Fed was hawkish with the hike being unanimous, dot plot showing another hike this yr & Warsh implying Fed still accommodative. Nothing to add to my note on Fed
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Eurozone shares +0.5% US shares -0.45%, Nas flat…Fed hiked as expected but was more hawkish than expected US 10 yr yld +2bp 5.02% Oil -3.2% to $101.9 Gold -0.5% to $4274.2 Iron ore +0.5% to $97 Bitcoin $76.1k ASX futures -0.7% $A 0.7089 with $US index +0.5%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
US shares (-2.7% from their high) are at high risk of following Australian shares (-6.5% from their high) into a correction. There are plenty of triggers - likely Fed & RBA rate hikes, rising bond yields, rising oil prices and weak seasonality.
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Eurozone shares -0.4% US shares -0.45%, Nas -0.8%…as oil and bond yields up further US 10 yr yld +1 bp to 5.002% Oil +3.8% to $105.3 with more attacks Gold -0.1% to $4295.1 Iron ore -0.3% to $96.5 Bitcoin $75.6k ASX futures +0.4% $A 0.713 with $US +0.2%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Eurozone shares -1% US shares -0.5%, Nas -0.6%.. with talk of AI slowdown weighing on chipmakers US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.99% Oil +1.1% to $101.4 Gold -1.1% to $4299.6 Iron ore -0.5% to $96.7 Bitcoin $78.9k ASX futures -0.2% ‘$A 0.7133 with $US index +0.4%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
amp.com.au
Oliver's insights - US rate hikes and implications for Australian investors - AMP
After much debate and anticipation, the US Federal Reserve looks likely to raise interest rates at its meeting this week by 0.25% taking the Fed Funds rate to a range of 3.75-4%. This will be its firs...
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 53%=final ~51%,Aug avg 66 Mel 63%=final ~60%,Aug avg 66 Clearances up from low with slump in listings. Rate hikes, investor tax hikes & poor confidence will keep mkt weak for a while yet. Rising spring listings will be big test. Mel stronger than Syd #ausecon
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
US Aug CPI wasn’t all bad with core CPI dipping to 2.4%yoy & less items with 3 mth annualised infl > 3%yoy, but the core CPI rose +0.29%m suggesting mthly core PCE will be 2 hi esp in face of renewed oil rise. So Fed likely to hike Wed. Money mkt now pricing 3.5 hikes..which looks OTT!
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Eurozone shares +0.8% (-0.9%) US shares +0.9% (-1.2% wk)..as oil prices dipped, hi CPI but rate hike already discounted US 10 yr flat at 4.97% Oil -2.4% to $100.05..may be temp w Saudi pipeline closure Gold +0.7% to $4349 Iron ore -1.3% to $97 Bitcoin $77.1k ASX futures +0.2% $A 0.716 w $US +0.1%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Weekly economic and market update - surging oil prices and bond yields; high correction risk for shares; more rises ahead in petrol prices; RBA to hike in Sept; Qld rating downgrade www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
amp.com.au
Weekly Market Update - 11-09-2026 - AMP
Global share markets fell again over the last week as both oil prices and bond yields pushed higher with more upwards pressure on central bank interest rate expectations.
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Eurozone shares -0.7% US shares -0.6%, Nas -0.65%..with oil & bond ylds up not helped by PPI components pointing to upside for core PCE US 10 yr yld +12bp to 4.96% Oil +6.7% to $102.5 Gold -1.7% to $4322.9 Bitcoin $77.1k ASX futures -0.9% $A 0.716 w $US +0.3%
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
I had a great chat with Lin Lin on the ABC Business Daily podcast regarding the collapse of Bathla and wider implications including around higher interest rates, rising blding costs, housing supply & private credit. www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
abc.net.au
Breaking down Bathla - ABC listen
Bathla Group has collapsed owing billions, with hundreds of projects caught up in the fallout. But when a developer that big goes under, the bigger question is what it tells us about the wider market...
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Eurozone shares -1.6% US shares -0.5%, Nas -0.6% as oil prices & bond yields up US 10 yr yld +5bp to $4.84 despite Bessent tripling bond buyback to $6bn Oil +3.2% to $96 Gold +0.9% to $4398.6 Iron ore -0.8% to $99 Bitcoin $78.1k ASX futures -1% $A 0.721 with $US flat
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The attached note looks at the rising trend in bond yields since 2020, what’s driving it and implications for investors. www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
amp.com.au
Oliver's insights - Super cycle bear market in bonds - AMP
Bond yields are being pushed higher by concerns about inflation, high public debt, rising corporate borrowing, rising Japanese bond yields and increasing economic uncertainty.
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Eurozone shares +0.1% US shares -0.6%, Nas -0.3%..oil up with strikes on/near Kharg Island & new Houthis strikes US 10 yr yld +1bp to 4.79% Gold -1% to $4361 Iron ore _0.6% to $99.8 Bitcoin $78.5k ASX futures +0.2% $A 0.7218 w $US index flat
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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Aust consumer confidence fell again in September with the index back to a soft 84 and pointing to softer consumer spending ahead. Most components fell, esp family finances with mortgage holders seeing the biggest fall on rate hike talk. Unemployment expectations trending up.
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