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Sinem Hacioglu Hoke @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

4) Survey linked to transaction data shows middle-income households drove the pullback, reallocating toward essentials and trading down to cheaper varieties 5) Is it stockpiling which unwinds? No. The spending drop is sustained, not front-loaded

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Sinem Hacioglu Hoke @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

2) But households cut spending by around 4%, which is 3-4 times more than the price increase 3) Heterogeneity across the income distribution. E.g. price pass through to low-income households’ basket is larger; low-income households bear a much larger welfare cost

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Reposted by Sinem Hacioglu Hoke

FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 06/03/2026

This #FEDSNote shows that price pressures developed gradually in 2025 rather than showing up as a one-time price spike and tariff effects have been greatest for goods imported from China with 8.5% year-over-year price increase by December 2025. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Figure 4. Price changes in 2025 by country of origin

This is a bar chart showing monthly 12-month percent changes in the country-specific Numerator Fisher Price Indices for January through December 2025. The y-axis shows percent values ranging from approximately -1 to 8.5 percent. The chart displays five variables: USA (blue bars), Canada (green bars), Mexico (yellow bars), China (purple bars), and Others (orange bars).

The data reveals a pattern of increasing price changes throughout the year, particularly for China and the Others category. In January and February, most countries show modest changes between -0.5 and 1 percent, with some negative values. From March through July, price changes generally remain below 2.5 percent across all countries. Starting in August, China's price changes accelerate significantly, reaching approximately 5.7 percent, then continue climbing to peak at about 8.3 percent in December. The Others category follows a similar but less dramatic upward trend, reaching about 5.3 percent by December. USA, Canada, and Mexico maintain more moderate price changes throughout the year, typically staying below 2.5 percent.

Note: 12-month percent changes in the country-specific Numerator Fisher Price Indices for January through December 2025. The key identifies bars in order from left to right. Source: Matched Numerator Panel Data and Label Insight Data, authors' calculations.

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Sinem Hacioglu Hoke @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

In summary, what consumers have been saying differs from what they have been doing during the post-pandemic period. We should exercise caution when using consumer sentiment surveys to infer future consumer behavior given this recent disconnect between what consumers say and do.

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Sinem Hacioglu Hoke @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

The more people thought the prices they paid rose faster than their incomes, the worse they said they were doing. And consumers were more likely to overestimate than to underestimate the inflation they experienced.

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Sinem Hacioglu Hoke @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

We show that verified spending on everyday retail items (which we merged with the survey results) remained strong even among those who said they felt worse about the economy in 2024 compared with 2019.

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Sinem Hacioglu Hoke @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Our new FEDS note is out! It summarizes the results of a household survey that aims to understand how changes in household incomes and spending between 2019 and 2024 shaped their economic sentiment. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

federalreserve.gov

Tracking consumer sentiment versus how consumers are doing based on verified retail purchases

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

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Sinem Hacioglu Hoke @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

After years of hard work, our new paper is out as a Bank of England working paper. Joint work with Daniel Ostry, Hélène Rey, Adrien Rousset Planat, Vania Stavrakeva and Jenny Tang. www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

bankofengland.co.uk

Topography of the FX derivatives market: a view from London

Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

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Reposted by Sinem Hacioglu Hoke

Adam @adamshap.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Got the ball rolling on a Fed Economists starter pack go.bsky.app/GudXeoo Fed economists, let me know if you’re on Bluesky and I’ll add you

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Reposted by Sinem Hacioglu Hoke

Christian Zimmermann @czimm-economist.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

You can now list your Bluesky account in your RePEc profile, like you already could for Mastodon and Twitter. Log in at the RePEc Author Service, click on "contacts", enter it and save. It will be listed on your profile at IDEAS after the next nightly refresh. authors.repec.org #econsky #RePEc

authors.repec.org

RePEc Author Service

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Sinem Hacioglu Hoke @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

Who is driving consumer spending? It's middle- and high-income households. We released this FEDS note last month and are now working on releasing regular updates to the series we report in the note. Stay tuned for our updates and follow up work! www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

federalreserve.gov

A Better Way of Understanding the US Consumer: Decomposing Retail Spending by Household Income

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

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Sinem Hacioglu Hoke @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

Thanks for this! I’d love to be added please.

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