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Seth Lazar

@sethlazar.org
5.6K followers 1.5K following 146 posts

Philosopher working on AI alignment, governance and adaptation Lab: mintresearch.org Self: sethlazar.org Newsletter: philosophyofcomputing.substack.com

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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 05/09/2025
And there's a great paper by @_FelixSimon_ and Sacha Altay on the actual impact of generative AI on elections. And more that I'll be writing about later, (incl great art from Seb Krier). Read them all at buff.ly/zTrRirO. Thanks so much to @knightcolumbia (and especially Katy) for making it happen
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 05/09/2025
My symposium on AI & Democratic Freedoms (edited with @katygb.bsky.social) is shaping up amazingly. @random_walker and @sayashk 's already influential 'AI as Normal Technology' is there. So is @danielsusskind's insightful investigation of what will remain for humans to do in our automated future.
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 05/09/2025
Building democratic resilience for the era of AI agents, and for AGI beyond, is an urgent challenge. If you're building civic agents, I'd love to talk. The paper—written with the visionary Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar—is published here: buff.ly/dMM0r7K
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 05/09/2025
More important still, if we want to preserve democratic values in this radical period of transition, is to make democratic institutions more resilient to the changes ahead. This can't just be about going back to how things were. Their stressors are not all exogenous.
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 05/09/2025
But computing has always been janus-faced for democracy, and this time won't be different. We could build civic agents that advance democratic values and disrupt concentrated power. Some features of modern AI could help. But civic agents must be built, they're not the default.
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 05/09/2025
And there will be novel threats—the erosion of cognitive autonomy, accelerated cyberwarfare, the ability for executives to wear the administrative state like a mech suit that implements without question their every whim.
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 05/09/2025
Soaring inequality? Check. Concentration of corporate power? Also check. Stuffed-up information ecosystem? Yep that too. Backsliding as the 'autocratic legalism' playbook gets rolled out in one nation after the next? Agents could be a helpful software Stasi.
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 05/09/2025
Capable LLM-based agents are already here. For any domain where you can build a good RL verifier, current knowledge will get us to human-level performance and better. Further advances are on the horizon. Agents are bound to exacerbate the trends already stressing democracies.
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 05/09/2025
How will AI agents impact democratic values? Democracies are—for independent reasons—already under acute pressure. Since WWII Moore's Law and democratisation went up and to the right in lockstep. Not any more.
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 23/12/2024
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 23/12/2024
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 23/12/2024
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 23/12/2024
Busy shopping day in Causeway Bay (long exposures handheld with Spectre App)
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 20/12/2024
🤔
Container ship with the word ‘HMM’ on the side
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 17/12/2024
Sunset and container shipSunset and container shipSunset and container ship
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 17/12/2024
Really love the container ships we can see from our balcony. We now have an app to track them…
Sunset and container ships
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 17/12/2024
Much enjoyed first @neuripsconf.bsky.social—fantastic to see the number (in absolute if not relative terms) of ML researchers seriously concerned with questions of ethics and safety. The coming months and years will try your integrity: I’m hopeful you’ll hold fast!
Mountain over the water at sunset Vancouver
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 30/11/2024
This is cool but there’s a logical leap here from ‘it’s complicated’ to ‘it’s all subjective’. I think what you’re probably after is just a kind of reasonable pluralism, rather than ‘anything goes’, right?
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 27/11/2024
Sold the trailer we did our Big Lap in today, to a young family planning to head off for nine months next year. Such a wonderful time we had, and I love that this is a rite of passage here in 🇦🇺
The camper trailer we just sold
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 22/11/2024
King Charles red portrait
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 22/11/2024
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 21/11/2024
This paper by Yu Gu et al looks *fascinating* arxiv.org/abs/2411.06559 “Language agents have demonstrated promising capabilities in automating web-based tasks, though their current reactive approaches still underperform largely compared to humans.
Computer Science > Artificial Intelligence
arXiv:2411.06559 (cs)
[Submitted on 10 Nov 2024]
Is Your LLM Secretly a World Model of the Internet? Model-Based Planning for Web Agents
Yu Gu, Boyuan Zheng, Boyu Gou, Kai Zhang, Cheng Chang, Sanjari Srivastava, Yanan Xie, Peng Qi, Huan Sun, Yu Su
View PDF
HTML (experimental)
Language agents have demonstrated promising capabilities in automating web-based tasks, though their current reactive approaches still underperform largely compared to humans. While incorporating advanced planning algorithms, particularly tree search methods, could enhance these agents' performance, implementing tree search directly on live websites poses significant safety risks and practical constraints due to irreversible actions such as confirming a purchase. In this paper, we introduce a novel paradigm that augments language agents with model-based planning, pioneering the innovative use of large language models (LLMs) as world models in complex web environments. Our method, WebDreamer, builds on the key insight that LLMs inherently encode comprehensive knowledge about website structures and functionalities. Specifically, WebDreamer uses LLMs to simulate outcomes for each candidate action (e.g., "what would happen if I click this button?") using natural language descriptions, and then evaluates these imagined outcomes to determine the optimal action at each step. Empirical results on two representative web agent benchmarks with online interaction -- VisualWebArena and Mind2Web-live -- demonstrate that WebDreamer achieves substantial improvements over reactive baselines. By establishing the viability of LLMs as world models in web environments, this work lays the groundwork for a paradigm shift in automated web interaction. More broadly, our findings open exciting new avenues for future research into 1) optimizing LLMs specifically for world modeling in complex, dynamic environments, and 2) model-based speculative planning for language agents.
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Seth Lazar @sethlazar.org · 17/11/2024
Abstract:
Frontier artificial intelligence (AI) systems pose increasing risks to society, making
it essential for developers to provide assurances about their safety. One approach
to offering such assurances is through a safety case: a structured, evidence-based
argument aimed at demonstrating why the risk associated with a safety-critical
system is acceptable. In this article, we propose a safety case template for offensive
cyber capabilities. We illustrate how developers could argue that a model does
not have capabilities posing unacceptable cyber risks by breaking down the main
claim into progressively specific sub-claims, each supported by evidence. In our
template, we identify a number of risk models, derive proxy tasks from the risk
models, define evaluation settings for the proxy tasks, and connect those with
evaluation results. Elements of current frontier safety techniques—such as risk
models, proxy tasks, and capability evaluations—use implicit arguments for overall
system safety. This safety case template integrates these elements using the Claims
Arguments Evidence (CAE) framework in order to make safety arguments coherent
and explicit. While uncertainties around the specifics remain, this template serves
as a proof of concept, aiming to foster discussion on AI safety cases and advance
AI assurance
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