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Sébastien Roblin

@sebastienroblin.bsky.social
837 followers 166 following 860 posts

I write about defense, history and aviation for Popular Mechanics, 19Fortyfive, Forbes, CNN, NBC, Inside Unmanned Systems. In past, National Interest. Former Peace Corps China.

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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
It's good Gepard has a modern day successor in Skyranger and like systems. The radar, large caliber (helping impart greater range) and airbursts are critical to making point defenses more effective. And we have a key historical precedent supporting this: fighting Nazi buzz bombs during World War 2!
nationalinterest.org
Here's How The Allies Survived Hitler's Missile Bombardment On London
Here’s What You Need To Remember: By the end of the main V-1 campaign against London, only one out of five V-1s on average was reaching its target. When Germany redirected V-1 strikes against Antwerp ...
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
A likely inevitable progression in my view. Low-cost drone warfare (tactical as well as long-range strike) is finally a conventional warfare capability North Korea can feasibly self-generate and field effectively, and that is suited for its geographic context and doctrine. South Korea must prepare.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Great quote in this article about the allure of causality to historians when recounting tales of tactics and technology.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
This summer U.S. soldiers at Fort Carson evaluated cheap FPV kamikaze drones from 19 companies for strikes up to 12 miles away or at close quarters in urban environments, all under jamming. Now the Army will order 60,000 of the 10 best designs. Read on for a brief on the winning companies & drones.
insideunmannedsystems.com
Nine Companies Win DDP Gauntlet 2 FPV Drone Competition
The Pentagon’s Drone Dominance Program just dropped a new leaderboard showing the rankings of nine companies that submitted the ten top-performing First Perso
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Great analysis of options to stand up a dedicated counter-drone squadron, landing in favor of the L-39 as the most efficient option (the available turboprop aircraft not being fast enough to keep pace with jet-Shaheds.) Poland's new FA-50s could prove of unexpected value to this mission too...
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Developing countries will increasingly deploy missile-armed drones for strikes like those U.S. pioneered in War on Terror. One of the more objectionable practices inherited is considering some areas 'free fire zones' where any military-age males spotted are assumed members of insurgent group. 1/2
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Amazing details in this quite moving article about the armored sarcophagi on tracks saving lives...named after Darth Maul! One figure: 2 UGVs lost per 5 soldiers rescued.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
News at 11: do not answer recruitment adds on TikTok for jobs as well-paid security guards (in Russia)! But in truth, a sinister story all around, including the part where these guys do actually do get paid only to have it subsequently stolen by their handlers after buying their uniforms.
united24media.com
Russia Sent Latin American Recruits to War. They Shot Their Way Out and Surrendered to Ukraine
Two Latin American men say they were lured to Russia to fight in Ukraine and shot at when trying to surrender.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Pretty lame for the new Starcraft game to give up on the RTS genre! (It will be an open world shooter.) Very grimdark trailer, though it definitely emphasizes Starcraft Space Marines aren't Warhammer Space Marines!
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Northrop Grumman's jet-powered Lumberjack multi-role drone just successfully flew a roundtrip using magnetic navigation tech combining Large Quantitative Model AI with a quantum sensor. Read on for more on Lumberjack and how quantum MagNav works and has promise as an un-jammable GPS substitute.
insideunmannedsystems.com
Northrop Grumman Lumberjack's Un-jammable Quantum-Powered Magnetic Navigation
Northrop Grumman’s jet-powered Group 3 Lumberjack drone—an attritable UAS capable of ISR, electronic warfare and attack missions—has successfully executed
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Oddly downer take on Ukraine from Eric Schmidt, ex-Google CEO developer of Merops/Surveyor interceptors & Hornet mid-range strike drones for Ukraine. Says there's insufficient drone production, though Ukraine builds millions more yearly than Russia.
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Ukraine’s way of fighting war can’t match what’s coming
Russia is shifting its strategy to erase Kyiv’s battlefield advantages.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Intrigue on the high seas! Russian cable-tapping team from GUGI apparently disrupted near Svalbard. A long-running phenomenon as you can read in my older article below, though chasing off a cable-tapping team caught in flagrante seems much rarer... nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ru...
nationalinterest.org
Russian Spy Submarines Are Tampering with Undersea Cables That Make the Internet Work. Should We Be Worried?
In 2018 reports have multiplied in the United States and Europe that Russian has intensified its submarine activity around the undersea cables which are essential for the global operation of the inter...
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Anduril Dive LD costing $2.5-3 million. Fundamentally an acceptable loss (UUVs at that price point are meant to be put at some risk) though a bit embarrassing for Anduril.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The Air Force is inducting air-to-air 'loyal wingman' drones--but the Navy just requested industry proposals for something very different: a stealthy carrier-based strike jet carrying 5 tons of weapons over long range with fuel to spare. Read on for spec details & analysis of Navy's different focus.
insideunmannedsystems.com
New RFI Shows Navy Wants Very Different Collaborative Combat Aircraft Than Air Force
A year ago the Navy issued initial contract to Anduril, Boeing, General Atomics and Northrop Grumman to finally begin conceptual studies for developing loy
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Some investigative verification of a JSOW glide bomb strike that hit a wedding-related gathering in Iran. :(
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
This report is honestly pretty dire on the hand-to-mouth supply of air-to-air missiles for the UAF. Honestly, had hoped they were not using very many against drones given the unfavorable cost differential but I guess not.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Very interesting that South Korea is already kicking off a more advanced 6th gen stealth fighter program while still only midway through introducing the KF-21, a 4.5 Gen fighter which could evolve into a 5th gen stealth fighter in its Block III variant. Or not if this new design overtakes it? 1/2
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
So I finally got through Starfleet Academy & actually enjoyed it overall! (Heresy, I know!) But I was annoyed with the ending where they prove to the villain that Star Fleet could never, ever do anything unfortunate or slightly unjust. And I say this as a *fan* of Federation being utopian!1/3
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
In March, U.S.'s Drone Dominance program ordered 22,320 cheap FPV kamikaze drones from 11 companies for delivery in 4.5 months. But 5 months on, DDP's website shows only 13,440 delivered. Read on for why the U.S. struggles to deliver just 2 day's production of Ukrainian drones. (Hint: components!)
insideunmannedsystems.com
Component Shortages Slow FPV Deliveries From Drone Dominance Gauntlet 1 Winners
The Pentagon’s Drone Dominance Program wanted the eleven companies that made the leaderboard of its Gauntlet 1 competition concluded in March to deliver thous
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
New Chotiner interview on the situation on the West Bank.
newyorker.com
Why Israeli Authorities Are Encouraging Settler Violence Against Palestinians
Retired I.D.F. colonel Doron Meiner, who was arrested while trying to protect a Palestinian community from settlers in the West Bank, discusses Israel’s strategy in the run-up to October’s election.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
This weekend the Navy revealed it's testing a new AIM-424 Malice air-to-air missile with 290+ miles range--yet that fits *inside* an F-35C stealth jet. Read on for the complex tactics + tech needed to make such missiles work, lessons from Ukraine & why Navy not Air Force is publicly leading charge.
19fortyfive.com
The US Navy's New AIM-424 Malice Missile Can Kill From 287 Miles Away. The Fighter Carrying It Cannot See Anywhere Near That Far
The AIM-424 Malice outranges the radar of every aircraft that carries it, which means someone else has to tell the pilot where to shoot.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
An interesting bit of reporting, though I fear it collapses some historical context. Ukraine urgently requested Western tanks in 2022/2023 for maneuver counteroffensives that took place those years; and remember FPV kamikaze drones didn't begin scaling up in use *until 2023*.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
While Trump degrades the relationship with Seoul, the U.S. Army has decided to buy a test batch of K9MH self-propelled howitzer systems. After 80 years of tracked artillery, the service is ready to try a combo of an 8x8 truck with a longer-range gun--read my article for why. And...1/2
19fortyfive.com
South Korea's K9 Thunder 'Shoot-and-Scoot' Artillery Is Joining the US Army
The Army's Mobile Tactical Cannon program selected the Hanwha K9MH, a truck-mounted spinoff of the K9 Thunder that can be emplaced and firing in 30 seconds.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
45 MQ-9s lost, or 25% of fleet; kinetic kills plus crashes after losing control signal (sounds like EW kills to me.) I think we can safely say Iran's air defenses weren't ineffectual in this war. U.S. really needs a more expendable MALE drone for such ops.
washingtonpost.com
U.S. military has lost roughly 25% of its Reaper drones as Iran war depletes arsenal
The aircraft, which cost up to $50 million each, have seen heavy use around the Strait of Hormuz — but they are relatively easy targets for Iran and its proxies.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Such a ballsy raid. Perhaps U.S. failure is due to absence of 360-degree coverage from Patriot radars (something new LTAMDS radar meant to address) combined with absence of secondary Short-Range Air Defenses on ground; nor overhead CAPs by aircraft.
twz.com
Iranian F-5s Bombing U.S. Forces In Kuwait Should Be A Wake-Up Call: Ex-USAF General
Retired NORAD commander gives new credence to the reported Iranian bombing mission and says it shows an urgent need for new thinking about air defenses.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Aspired to work there in the 2000s (could have gone down a very different career path!) What a sad fate. Hope it will be reborn from ashes...
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
9 years ago, @mjgault.bsky.social and I wrote opposing reviews of Dunkirk for warisboring.com; he panned it, I liked it. Sadly, I can't find either of our reviews as the site is dead (can anyone recover them?) Here's a screenshot though of the draft I submitted.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
The UK plans to buy a 'Storm Fighter' Loyal Wingman drone (CCA)-and BAE just unveiled a Brontanax prototype it secretly developed to team with Typhoon fighters. Can it beat already flying rivals? Read on for details on Brontanax's development & design, and Europe's highly competitive CCA market.
insideunmannedsystems.com
BAE Bets on Sovereignty, Unveils Brontanax Loyal Wingman to British Military in Search of 'Storm Fighter'
BAE Systems unveiled a Loyal Wingman drone fighter called Brontanax at the UK’s Farnborough airshow: a prototype the company’s FalconWorks branch began secr
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Nice AV thread on the jets transferred from West to Ukraine (including Polish MiG-29s). In one video a pilot estimates Ukraine will operate its MiG-29s through 2030 and mentions a 'hunter-hunted' risk versus Shaheds. Either a reference to collision risks or that some carry air-to-air missiles?
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Quite a rundown of the severe technical problems and parts shortages crippling Russia's Su-57 'stealth' fighter, particularly due to outdated software capabilities.
xxtomcooperxx.substack.com
Sarcastosaurus | Substack
Personal Substack by Tom Cooper (from Austria; we've got no Kangaroos... except in a few zoos). Any misuse of the content by the mainstream media - no matter if in the USA, Italy, Germany, Austria on ...
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Amazing graphical visualization by Reuters in this article.
reuters.com
Inside Ukraine’s Kill Zone
Drones now dominate the war in Ukraine. Fly through the front line’s deadly “kill zone” and discover how surveillance, kamikaze drones and new tactics are reshaping modern warfare. An immersive Reuter...
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
The Pentagon's Drone Dominance program seeking to stimulate production of cheap kamikaze drones is launching a new $32 million competition this October for a formerly neglected category: heavy gravity bomber drones. Read on for requirements + why heavy bombers have proven so effective in Ukraine.
insideunmannedsystems.com
Drone Dominance Program Launches New ‘Gauntlet’ Mission C Competition for Heavy Gravity-Bomber Drones
The Pentagon’s multi-phase Drone Dominance Gauntlet competition seeking to stimulate development and mass production of low-cost first-person view (FPV) kamik
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Last weekend, three Saronic Corsair drone boats kamikazed into Iran's Bandar Abbas naval base, catching a minisub hoisted for maintenance--smoother performance than the last U.S. combat op using one-way USVs 82 years ago. Read on for why it still raises questions on how U.S. Navy can best use USVs.
insideunmannedsystems.com
U.S. Navy Corsairs Just Conducted Its First Kamikaze Drone Boat Attack Since World War II
Just a over a month after the U.S. Navy used a small unmanned surface vehicle (USV) for the first time to recover personnel in a search-and-rescue operation, on
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
A qualifying event for phase 2 of the Pentagon's Gauntlet program seeking a stable of cheap but deadly First Person View (FPV) kamikaze drones ended in a bloodbath--for competitors. Read on for details on all 19 qualifying companies (out of 49!), and those that shockingly didn't make the mark.
insideunmannedsystems.com
19 Companies Out of 49 Contenders Qualify For Drone Dominance Gauntlet 2 Trial
The Pentagon’s $1.1 billion Drone Dominance Program has taken another step forward. Aimed at identifying and nurturing a championship stable of manufacturers
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
NATO infantry are getting all kinds of drones lately--vehicles not so much. The builder of palm-sized Black Hornet drones just unveiled a vehicle-borne Black Recon spinoff to fill that gap that rotates launch/recovery/recharge of 3 drones continuously.1/2 insideunmannedsystems.com/teledynes-bl...
The 2-3 times larger Black Recon drone next to the pocket-sized but similar-looking Black Hornet nanodrone widely used by infantry.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
This. The latest form of tiresome headline-writing bait & switch until our brains can be trained to new heights of cynicism. :(
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
As warships struggle to deploy enough affordable long-range strike weapons, DIU's RIMES program proposes a radical solution: give destroyers recoverable strike planes! 3short-takeoff/landing prototype drones are now contracted in 12 months. We only know about 1, and it uses 24 electric lift fans!1/3
insideunmannedsystems.com
DIU’s RIMES Program Taps Mach and Whisper Aero for Shipboard-Capable Strike UAS Prototype
The U.S. Navy wants long-range unmanned aircraft that can operate without a runway, a carrier deck or elaborate launch-and-recovery equipment. The Defense Innov
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Ukraine has been striking the Volnya Kupol Garant ("Wave Dome Guarantor") EW system Russia has deployed to protect its highway to Crimea from Starlink-controlled drones. It consists of 8 jammers distributed between 6 trailers. How effective is this counter-Starlink system? 1/5
insideunmannedsystems.com
Russia’s Guarantor Jammer Points to a New Tactical Threat to Starlink-Enabled Drones
Russia is reportedly deploying a truck-mounted satellite jamming system designed to deny Starlink access to Ukrainian drones over a localized area. What it can
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
For its first future loyal wingman fighter drone the Air Force was supposed to choose between the General Atomics YFQ-42A Dark Merlin and Anduril YFQ-44A Merlin--but instead announced yesterday it's buying both. Separately, it's still trying to choose between 3 autonomy systems. Read on for details!
insideunmannedsystems.com
Air Force Goes Split Buy: Fury and Dark Merlin Both Enter CCA Production
Following months of flight testing, in 2026 the Air Force was expected to choose between two competing drone combat jets of class generally called ‘Loyal Wing
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Two FPV kamikaze drones competing in the Pentagon's Gauntlet 2 competition offer a study in contrasts. FLEX comes from Canada's Draganfly-which began selling quadcopters in 1999! Meanwhile AG3 Lab's SPADE was built by students still enrolled in Michigan State University. Read on for details!
insideunmannedsystems.com
Mountain Horse Brings Draganfly Flex and AG3 SPADE to Drone Dominance Gauntlet 2
Mountain Horse Solutions is partnered with two companies battling in the second round of the Army’s Drone Dominance Gauntlet competition s
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
The ship in question, USS Porter, was absurdly cursed before & after nearly killing FDR. (Navy vessels took to broadcasting "Don't shoot. We're Republicans!") The destroyer's saving grace was the manner of her sinking in combat...remarkably, evacuated with 0 killed.
share.google
Friendly Fire Happens, But in 1943 It Nearly Killed a U.S. President
Here’s What You Need to Know: The taskforce’s commander had had enough. He ordered the Porter to report to Bermuda. There, the Navy held an inquiry to evaluate why exactly things had gone so spectacul...
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Clarifying thread on what dazzle camouflage is good for--making it hard to discern heading & speed for torpedo intercepts--and what it isn't (actually hiding vehicles, especially ones moving predictably down highways.)
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Reposted by Sébastien Roblin
Shipwreck @shipwreck75.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Yikes… Blue Origin's New Glenn just blew up at LC-36 while attempting to Static Fire ahead of NG-4.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
JAS39C/Ds are very decent 4th gen fighters (like F-16s) with great ability to operate dispersed from austere conditions (like highways) & very cheap to operate per flight hour. Will also help Ukraine prepare to integrate 4.5-gen Gripen-Es Kyiv plans to buy.
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Reposted by Sébastien Roblin
War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Accountability in the military rests on the willingness to ask hard questions, even when the answers are uncomfortable. warontherocks.com/2026/05/the-...
warontherocks.com
The Kid Rock Flyby Controversy and the Erosion of Military Professionalism
During Congressional testimony from Department of Defense leadership last week, Representative George Whitesides asked Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth,
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
The title says it aptly. Though a nuclear attack sub (SSN) is *not* nuclear armed (SSNs have agility/endurance to aid hunting North Korean/Chinese subs), it does set path towards developing a nuke-armed 'boomer' (SSBN). So I think this marks an early death knell non-proliferation in South Korea.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
The Pentagon's Drone Dominance Program just announced qualifiers for its second 'Gauntlet' competition seeking low-cost First Person View (FPV) kamikaze drones--and instead of narrowing field, invited *48* companies to compete 78 different drones, 8 of which may be awarded production contracts.1/2
insideunmannedsystems.com
Drone Dominance Program Qualifies 48 Companies For Gauntlet 2 Trials
The Pentagon’s Drone Dominance Program (DDP) has issued a dramatically expanded list of participants for its second competitive Drone Dominance Gauntlet trial
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
A pretty fundamental aspect of the human experience has changed radically within the last century to an extent few people realize...
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Reposted by Sébastien Roblin
Aaron Kidd @kiddaaron.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
The U.S. and South Korea have agreed to deeper cooperation on drone and counter-drone systems, launching what Seoul described as a new “drone alliance” between the two countries.
stripes.com
US, South Korea agreement creates ‘drone alliance’ for shared systems, logistics
The agreement calls for the countries to develop a joint supply chain and establish common standards to improve interoperability while lowering logistics costs.
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Sébastien Roblin @sebastienroblin.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Seems like a good way to thin out incoming Shahed formations approaching overwater to places like Odessa, don't want to deal with them all in their terminal phase. Though I wonder what provides the Dead Flys with radar target acquisition and tracking--just land-based or also sea-based sensors?
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