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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

There is a slight chance something could happen, but at this point it's looking unlikely.

Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Here's the latest radar image. Since storms will form parallel to a warm front later this evening, there is a risk of heavy rain from training storms...especially in the Red River Valley and southeast!

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Strong thunderstorms have started to develop this evening in south-central Manitoba. These storms are likely to expand in coverage later this evening and shift eastward. The Red River Valley and southeast will also be at risk of severe storms this evening and overnight. #mbstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

The relative humidity dropped from 57% to 39% in 2 hours. Although the RH is not always a great indicator of true humidity. The dewpoint is preferred by meteorologists. It went from 24 C, which is a tropical value, to 12 C, which is very comfortable.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

The cold front has made its way through Winnipeg, dropping the temperature from 34 C at 6pm to 27 C at 8pm. The humidex dropped from 45 at 6pm to 30 at 8pm. #mbwx

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

The effects of the frontal passage will be noticeable in the Parklands and central Interlake by this afternoon. For the rest of southern Manitoba it won't be too noticeable until late this evening.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

A cold front is advancing across southern Manitoba today. However, it's a pretty lazy front and isn't moving very fast. For most of southern MB it will be another hot/humid day. Even for areas behind the front, the cooler/drier air is slow to arrive.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

With humidity this high you can take a room temperature object outside and water will start condensing onto it.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Yes strongly capped. Not a cloud in the sky.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Elm Creek, Manitoba with an astounding 29 C dewpoint this evening. As recorded by the Manitoba agriculture network.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

*Record at the Winnipeg Airport. A few stations around southern Manitoba hit 50-51.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

It is the worst anyone has ever experienced! Record high humidex today of 48.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Another 24 hours of extreme heat and humidity is on tap for southern Manitoba before a cold front arrives later tomorrow. It will sweep away the worse of the heat/humidity. Tuesday will still be fairly warm, with highs in the mid-upper twenties, but much lower humidity.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

It’s currently 35 C with a dewpoint of 27 C at my house just outside Winnipeg. That gives a perfect 50 for the humidex. Highest I’ve ever recorded with my weather station. #mbwx

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Not expecting any storms in southern Manitoba tonight. It’s too hot for storms!

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

The timing of the front on Monday will determine how hot it gets. The front arrives later near the US border, resulting in the heat lingering longer in areas farther south. After the frontal passage, Tuesday will still be warm, but the worst of the heat/humidity will be gone.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Three days of oppressive heat are on the way for southern Manitoba: Saturday: Highs 31-34 C; Humidex 40-45. Sunday: Highs 33-37 C; Humidex 41-47. Monday: Highs 32-35 C; Humidex 40-46. A cold front will push across southern Manitoba on Monday, putting an end to the heat.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

A non-exhaustive list of June rainfall totals in Manitoba: San Clara: 422 mm Stonewall: 409 mm Petersfield: 303 mm Roblin: 275 mm Swan River: 269 mm Winnipeg (The Forks): 232 mm Dauphin: 211 mm Pinawa: 211 mm Brandon: 169 mm Winnipeg Airport: 154 mm #mbstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

The most likely zone for extreme rainfall amounts is in the Parklands, where this model shows ~200 mm. However, it's unlikely the modelled maximum rainfall amounts are in the right locations. Even if you are in lower amounts, that does not mean you couldn't also see heavy rain!

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

All of southern Manitoba should be prepared for heavy rain later today. An extremely humid air mass will result in widespread thunderstorm activity starting this evening, with the potential for flash flooding. #mbstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Best chance would be this evening or overnight. Main risk is heavy rain, but can't rule out hail as well.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Such a pattern is common under El Nino conditions. Indeed, our summer outlook for this year anticipated a wet summer that started off cool.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Frequent, deep, and slowing moving troughs of low pressure have been moving across the Prairies. These have spawned strong low pressure systems in the western Prairies, giving heavy, widespread rains to Alberta. Farther east, Manitoba has been in the warm sector, giving heavy rains from storms.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Most areas that receive >100 mm will be the result of repeated rounds of thunderstorms. It is not possible to accurately predict the locations of these torrential rains in advance, but they will be most common where the heaviest average amounts are located on the map.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

The Prairies will get no break from rain as yet another powerful system is set to arrive this weekend. The 5-day average of all weather models (below) has many large areas of 50-100 mm. However, do not be surprised to see pockets that receive 100-200 mm.

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Reposted by Scott Kehler 🇨🇦

COOLwhite @coolwhite.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

City of #Winnipeg rainfall totals from June 9 & 10 #mbstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

While extreme, this storm still falls short of the grand daddy of Prairie rainstorms, which occurred in Vanguard SK on July 3, 2000 when approximately 375 mm (14.76 in) fell in 8 hours.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

This all remains preliminary as additional measurements may emerge in the coming days.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

This would easily beat the previous daily rain record of 239 mm set in Rivers, MB on June 28, 2020. It is also approaching the all-time provincial rainstorm record (multi-day), which was 330 mm set June 29-July 1, 1935 in Tilston, MB.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Note preliminary: It appears Manitoba has set a new 24-hr provincial rain record with the storms on Tuesday night. I've confirmed a high-quality gauge measurement of 292 mm (11.48 in) approx. 2 km west of Stonewall. #mbstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Oh I see. What happened yesterday was not a surprise - meteorologists were watching it for a few days in advance. However, communicating thunderstorm risk tends to have a shorter fuse than other types of weather because the impacts are so localized.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

122 mm at the forks and 53 mm at the airport.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Today was a more typical thunderstorm day. There may have been a few isolated severe storms but generally they were tame compared to yesterday.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

If anyone north of Winnipeg (including Stonewall) has rain gauge measurements I would really appreciate you sharing them (including location when possible). This was potentially a record event for Manitoba, so I'd like to document it as much as possible. #mbstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

More thunderstorms are beginning to develop this afternoon in the Red River Valley and southeast. Severe storms are possible again - not expecting a repeat of yesterday, but hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain are possible again. #mbstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

For all the flack the RRFS has been catching, it was the only model to consistently show supercells affecting the RRV yesterday. Indeed, many runs specifically showed a supercell right over Winnipeg. It has certainly performed no worse than any other CAMs over the past 3-4 days.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

If anybody saw hail today I would greatly appreciate any reports. Specifically the location, time, and size.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Stonewall, MB has received 208 mm (~8 in) of rain today including 190 mm in the past 4 hours. Beware of flash flooding potential in the area! #mbstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Please also be alert to flash flooding potential tonight. Many areas have received torrential rain. Road washouts are possible and water is often deeper than it appears! Just north of Winnipeg (e.g. Stonewall) has already received 150 mm+ (6 in +) and counting. #mbstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Note: The storms SW of Winnipeg are actually a bit stronger than indicated. It is currently raining heavily on the weather radar which is causing some of signal to be attenuated, making the returns look a bit weaker than they actually are.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Storms have exited Winnipeg for now, but more are on the way. A strong line of storms is presently located from Portage la Prairie southward to just west of Morden. This line will impact the Red River Valley over the next few hours. #mbstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

An incredibly strong push of moisture is about to enter southern Manitoba from ND/MN. As this moisture arrives the potential for severe weather will begin. (See dewpoints in green of 20-23 C just south of the border). #mbstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

A derecho is possible as a line of storms forms in SW Manitoba and sweeps east this evening.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Could be anytime starting late afternoon, but most likely mid-late evening.

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Reposted by Scott Kehler 🇨🇦

Weatherlogics 🇨🇦 @weatherlogics.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Widespread severe weather, including the risk of tornadoes, is expected today in southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Storms may also produce torrential rain, very large hail, and destructive winds. #mbstorm #skstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

All parts of southern Manitoba are at risk. The threat will begin this afternoon and maximize this evening.

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Today is the most dangerous severe weather setup I have seen in southern Manitoba in a long time. Storms could produce tornadoes, destructive winds, and very large hail. If thunderstorms approach, take shelter immediately. #mbstorm

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Reposted by Scott Kehler 🇨🇦

Weatherlogics 🇨🇦 @weatherlogics.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

Severe weather will redevelop again today across eastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Dangerous storms are possible, with a risk of large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes. Here is our severe weather outlook. #mbstorm #skstorm

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Reposted by Scott Kehler 🇨🇦

Weatherlogics 🇨🇦 @weatherlogics.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. These storms could produce large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes. The risk of severe weather is expected to continue on Sunday in southern Manitoba. #mbstorm #skstorm

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Scott Kehler 🇨🇦 @scottdkehler.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Weather models are hinting at the "classic" eastern Prairies severe weather pattern this weekend. A strong upper trough will move across western Canada with a surface low lifting out of Montana. I'm keeping a close eye on how this plays out! #mbstorm #skstorm

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