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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

🧵https://peterturchin.substack.com/p/is-ukraine-russia-war-entering-the

Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

How you described the end of Ottoman rule was textbook imperiopathosis from Cliodynamics + overextension, though without mentioning the real problem with it (Too many diverse ethnicities that don't share common ground, as Peter Turchin diagnoses in the EU), definitely well researched, great video.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

It's important to note that on the eve of the battle, Hungary was experiencing a disintegrative trend. Combine that with the naturally decentralized feudal institutions of the time, and it was easy to see why Hungary split into camps in response to the defeat at the battle. And why it lost.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

(It was this unification of the Mediterranian political landscape by Rome, the Pax Romana, that prevented a 4th, 5th, or 6th Punic war. Modern Europe is different, insulated from very alien peoples, more so than the Russians, that could unify her, though modern tech has altered these dynamics.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

(Should note Carthage suffered 3. the fate of being conquered by a stronger empire on a metaethnic frontier with higher cultural differences [With Gauls] which allowed it to become dominant not just through its own cooperation but with neighbors often willingly joining it. Not likely here.)

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Turchin's response to such criticisms. It's not idiotic at all.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

While it's possible the uniquely destructive nature of the world wars, Europe's advanced weapons + the advancement of peacekeeping institutions in history, have led to a more resilient "concert of Europe" in the EU...

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Of course, with the generations forgetting the urge for peace fades. There was a 3rd Punic War. And it's too early to tell if war might return to Western Europe. Seeing as France & the UK began to fight over fish after Brexit & Germany uncovered a coup plan with irredentism towards WWI borders.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

History teaches the harder you push against Imperial will, the stronger it gets. How it's forged. The only way it's been defeated are 1. The Empire wins, and the will fades as a result. 2. The war is stalemated and so devastating that the urge for peace wins out over the urge to keep fighting.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

I'm afraid that's not enough. These things have inertia. Not instantaneous. It matters not simply that Russia goes bankrupt but that it goes bankrupt FAST ENOUGH. And it seems like it won't...

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

I'm sure the Carthaginians said the same during the First Punic War. Russia continues to have the advantage in absolute resources, the question is whether they have the will to keep going despite setbacks. A matter of national pride, this their war to reunite their empire after 90s humiliation.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Of course, Trump, Neoliberalism & its consequences to be exact, is breaking up the Western alliance.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Subscribe to Peter Turchin to help fund this great & important research area (Cliodynamics)!

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Why did Trump's operation Epic Fury fail to cause regime change or at least instability in Iran? Firstly, it seems the regime was more resilient than we thought... Eurasian mega-empires tend to be. Secondly, but more importantly, Trump's strategy was awful. 🧵 bsky.app/profile/scie...

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 29/03/2026

Despite the fact that Eastern European countries should have an inherent right to choose their own fate, this is still true. Many parallels.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

Definitely not, otherwise they wouldn't have united to conquer the "tartars" & convert many to Orthodoxy! (With later reversals) While they did naturally inherit a lot from their rulers, the Tartars were not brothers but "Heathens." And yes, import of Western ways and diplomatic marriages.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

Certainly not "all the time." Otherwise, Russia would have never gotten so big.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

A good historical analogy is Rome vs the Gauls and Rome vs the Etruscans. Back when Rome's enemy was the Etruscans, it would have never become the great empire it was from them alone; it took the invasion of the "savage Gauls" to create that.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

Again. The USSR entered a disintegrative phase that culminated in its collapse in 1991.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

It was deeper than these wars. While even strong Imperial nations like Germany can end up split by their neighbors if they make too many enemies, a major factor is growing internal weakness & disintigrative periods. Similar to medieval Hungary.

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Fandomguy (Destructive Creation arc) 🍿 @sciencefandom.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

Russia certainly has a) & c) (However c is determined. The way I/Cliodynamics determines it is through Asabiya. The Russian ethnic group is the younger core Imperial nation. Ukraine is the older core of the Kyivan Rus whose collective action declined to the point of being conquered/split.)

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