Sign in

Sascha Ostanina

@saschaostanina.bsky.social
202 followers 75 following 170 posts

Political & Security Risk Analyst Specialised in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Moldova, & the South Caucasus

PostsRepliesMedia
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
#UK's nuclear deterrent relies on submarines armed w/ Trident ballistic missiles, leased from the #US & regularly returned to the US base in King’s Bay, Georgia for maintenance. Missile testing is carried out under US supervision at Cape Canaveral, Florida: www.ft.com/content/1503...
021
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
#Europe won't have a seat at the table for #Ukraine peace talks, Donald Trump's envoy Kellogg said, after the #US sent a questionnaire to European capitals to ask what they could contribute to security guarantees for Ukraine: www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
Zelenskiy calls for European army to deter Russia, earn US respect
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Saturday for the creation of a European army, arguing the continent could no longer be sure of protection from the United States and would only get respect from Washington with a strong military.
1237
Reposted by Sascha Ostanina
Vassili Golod @golod.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Im Umfeld von Selenskyj wächst der Eindruck, dass sich Trump als Vermittler und nicht als Verbündeter der Ukraine sieht. Wenn sich der wichtigste Verbündete aus Eigennutz selbst zum Schiedsrichter ernennt, droht eine herbeigeführte Katastrophe. Weil Russland immer Regeln bricht.
29886226
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
In #Ukraine, #Russia occupies 41 coal deposits (60% of reserves), nine oil deposits (11%), 27 areas with gas deposits (about 20%), 42% of metal deposits, & 33% of rare earth metals & minerals. In other words, resources worth $12.5T are under occupation: ubn.news/almost-half-...
ubn.news
Almost half of Ukraine’s mineral deposits are occupied or already owned.
Almost half of Ukraine’s mineral deposits are occupied or already owned. - Economy
031
Reposted by Sascha Ostanina
Max Bergmann @maxbergmann.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Just have the EU issue Eurobonds and have the EU issue the damn contracts. It’s all very straightforward. European leaders are avoiding the obvious way forward because their MFAs/MODs don’t want to cede authority to Brussels. All very petty.
4249
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
🇪🇺 promises more defence spending, but orders are still missing. 🇫🇮 155mm artillery producer Patria has been waiting for contracts since last spring. Once contracts arrive, delivery will still take a year: www.euractiv.com/section/defe...
euractiv.com
On defence, Europe's talk is still cheap
Promises of increased spending will not solve the problem industries have been raising for months as the contracts are still lacking.
514329
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Since 2022, 🇬🇧& 🇩🇪 Storm Shadow & Taurus production lines remain idle. 🇫🇷 maintained a SCALP-EG production line running at <100 units/year. Instead of ramping up, Europe relied on 🇺🇸, but Biden slowed missile deliveries to 🇺🇦, & Trump may not restart them: theins.ru/en/opinion/f...
theins.ru
No Washington, no problem: How Europe can support Ukraine and ensure its own security without U.S. aid
A few days ago, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered a 90-day suspension of funding for most foreign aid programs, including assistance to Ukraine. If the Trump administration completely halts ...
243
Reposted by Sascha Ostanina
SPRAVDI - Stratcom Centre @stratcomcentre.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
It's taken Russians two years to advance 10km (6miles) from Bakhmut to the town of Chasiv Yar. After a thriving pre-war population of 13,000, the town now resembles everything Russia has ever touched, with only 600 residents somehow clinging to life. This is the Russian world
66719
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 18/10/2024
#SouthKorea: Vessels belonging to #Russia's Pacific Fleet were detected moving about 1,500 #NorthKorea|n special forces troops to Vladivostok for training for combat in #Urkaine. The troops have been supplied with 🇷🇺 military uniforms, weapons, & fake IDs: www.reuters.com/world/south-...
020
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 04/09/2024
The IMF will become the first major international financial body to send its official mission to #Russia since the invasion of #Ukraine in 2022. An IMF delegation will visit Moscow for meetings with Russian officials until Oct. 1. www.reuters.com/world/imf-co...
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 03/09/2024
The @EU_Commission is considering postponing setting out plans for its €1.2 trillion 7-year budget until after #Germany's 2025 election to gauge the preferences of the new 🇩🇪 government on such sensitive questions as issuing common debt to fund 🇪🇺 defence www.politico.eu/article/euro...
politico.eu
EU Commission mulls delaying budget proposal until after German election
Officials also think that time would be too short to submit plan before July 2025 deadline.
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 02/09/2024
Former #Italy PM #MarioDraghi urges boosting EU defence by increasing access to EU cash, easing merger rules regardless of competition concerns, prioritising European solutions, and establishing a centralised EU procurement agency: www.politico.eu/article/mari...
politico.eu
Defense firms need full access to EU cash as Putin haunts Europe, Draghi says
Looming threats must spark major rethink of European defense policy, according to draft of new report seen by POLITICO.
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 28/08/2024
These #Russia|n military installations are legitimate targets for #Ukraine's strikes. Yet, 🇺🇦 is being artificially restricted from targeting them. "Hundreds of known 🇷🇺 military & paramilitary objects in 🇷🇺 are in range of 🇺🇦 ATACMS" - @TheStudyofWar www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
020
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 20/08/2024
Russian oligarch Fridman has filed a $16bn claim against Luxembourg over its decision to freeze his assets after he was placed on an EU sanctions list. His legal team includes Cherie Blair, the wife of former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair www.politico.eu/article/mikh...
politico.eu
Russian oligarch files $16B claim against Luxembourg over frozen assets
Mikhail Fridman was removed from the EU’s sanctions list after a legal challenge.
011
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 20/08/2024
Exports from the #EU with #Kazakhstan, #Armenia, #Azerbaijan, #Georgia, #Turkey and the other #CentralAsia countries increased by €46bn in 2023, up 50% from 2021. That was equivalent to 3/4 of the drop in Europe’s exports to #Russia from 2021 to 2023 www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 16/08/2024
Thanks to #Ukraine's Kursk offensive, #Germany has realised that using 🇩🇪-made weapons inside #Russia doesn’t make 🇩🇪 a party to the war. It’s the perfect time for Chancellor Scholz to reconsider and send Taurus missiles to 🇺🇦. No, this doesn't require sending 🇩🇪 soldiers to 🇺🇦
072
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 16/08/2024
Ukrainian troops are still getting outfired by Russian artillery by a ratio of about 8 to 1. That's down from about 20 to 1 before Congress passed the $60 billion U.S. military aid bill for #Ukraine in June, Ukrainian officials said. foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/14/u...
foreignpolicy.com
What Is Ukraine’s Goal in Kursk?
Ukraine is making gains on Russian soil. But is Kyiv losing troops it can’t replace?
020
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 14/08/2024
#Germany's Cologne-Wahn military base next to #Cologne airport has been sealed off & 5,500 of soldiers & civilians working there advised not to drink tap water after someone forced their way into the premises. Authorities investigate possible sabotage www.reuters.com/world/europe...
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 13/08/2024
#Russia has trained its navy to target sites deep inside Europe w/ missiles that can carry conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons. 🇷🇺's 2008-14 files include a target list in Europe & highlight the advantages of using ☢️strikes at an early stage www.ft.com/content/237e...
020
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 12/08/2024
#Germany’s government could take stakes in arms-makers & defence projects that it deems strategically important - already allowed in principle - more frequently, according to a draft paper written by the economy and defence ministries. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
Berlin defence strategy eyes stakes in arms companies, report says
The German government could take a stake in arms-makers and defence projects in "strategic cases", according to a draft paper written by the economy and defence ministries, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Thursday.
010
Reposted by Sascha Ostanina
Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 07/08/2024
Germany is to permanently station a liaison officer in the US’ Indo-Pacific Command (nice job, as based in Hawaii) table.media/security/new...
table.media
Bundeswehr mit Verbindungsoffizier dauerhaft im Pazifik vertreten
Pistorius bemüht sich auf seiner Indopazifik-Reise, den Partnern ein nachhaltig hinterlegtes Engagement Deutschlands zu signalisieren.
6253
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 07/08/2024
#Turkey is the 2nd biggest source, behind #China, of high-priority, US-origin goods sent to #Russia, according to the #US Treasury. Turkey’s exports of military-linked goods to Russia or its intermediaries registered $85mn in H1 2024 ($27mn in H1 2022) www.ft.com/content/e7e4...
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 06/08/2024
The missing middle of technology investment—insufficient funding for commercial production—is evident in each and every one of these failures, but the loss of expertise is an added dimension www.technologyreview.com/2024/07/30/1...
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 06/08/2024
This summer, #Russia’s air force parked dozens of glide-bomb carriers, Su-34s, (out of 100 in service) in open at Voronezh Malshevo air base just 160km from #Ukraine. The Ukrainians pleaded for permission to fire ATACMs at the base. The US said no www.forbes.com/sites/davida...
forbes.com
Ukraine Had A Chance To Blow Up Russia’s Best Warplanes On The Tarmac. The White House Said No—And Now It’s Too Late.
Ukraine is still hitting Russian airfields, but only with less destructive drones.
031
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 05/08/2024
As the Franco-German Main Ground Combat System has shifted its delivery date from 2040 to 2050, if not beyond, Europe’s two main heavy-armour manufacturers, Rheinmetall and KNDS, are touting at least five main battle tank designs to fill the gap www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
Europe’s heavy-metal options
European heavy-armour manufacturers are pursuing at least five different Main Battle Tank designs, offering users crewed- and uncrewed-turret interim options as the arrival of the next generation slips toward the mid-century.
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 05/08/2024
The French army, which spent past decades fighting in Afghanistan and the West African Sahel region, had not loaded military equipment onto trains for about 20 years. Train station managers at SNCF, #France's national railway company, were also in the dark www.politico.eu/article/fren...
politico.eu
French general wants to slash ‘unbelievable’ red tape to move troops faster across Europe
EU needs to up its game on military mobility, but it’s no easy task, General Bertrand Toujouse tells POLITICO.
020
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 04/08/2024
Britain’s nuclear submarine engineers use software designed in #Russia & #Belarus. The firm that outsourced the work thought to disguise the workers' locations by giving them names of dead Brits. Further defence capabilities could have been compromised. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08...
telegraph.co.uk
Britain’s nuclear submarine software built by Belarusian engineers
Fears that coding work outsourced to Russia and its allies could pose national security threat
020
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 31/07/2024
Bloomberg:🚨The first delivery of the F-16 fighter jets from NATO allies has arrived in Ukraine
030
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 30/07/2024
The US Air Force needs to rethink how small, low-cost drones could change the definition of air superiority. Small drones have become a defining feature of the Russo-Ukraine war, with both sides fielding drones & quadcopters for strikes & reconnaissance www.airandspaceforces.com/small-drones...
airandspaceforces.com
Small Drones Force New Thinking on Air Superiority, Slife Says | Air & Space Forces Magazine
The Air Force needs to rethink how small, low-cost drones could change the definition of air superiority, Gen. James Slife said on July 29.
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 30/07/2024
The #US is not ready for a major war, says a bipartisan commission. In 2018, the previous commission had warned that America “might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against #China or #Russia”. This time the language is starker www.economist.com/united-state...
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 30/07/2024
Italian defence group Leonardo would be “open to” #SaudiArabia joining #Italy-#Japan-#UK's Global Combat Air Programme to build an advanced fighter jet. Saudi Arabia could bring industrial capability & some fresh labour resources as a potential partner: www.ft.com/content/237c...
ft.com
Leonardo chief ‘open to’ Saudi role in fighter jet project if UK cuts support
Roberto Cingolani says ‘fourth partner could be very convenient’ for Global Combat Air Programme
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 29/07/2024
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine www.defense.gov/News/Release...
defense.gov
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
DOD announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs.
020
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 29/07/2024
Telecom companies in France, including at least SFR, Bouygues & Free, have been targeted by acts of vandalism. The fibre optic network had been cut; fixed & mobile lines had been affected, mere days after a wave of sabotage hit the country's rail network www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
euronews.com
Multiple fibre optic networks vandalised across France
Installations belonging to Free, SFR and Bouygues were sabotaged during the night. No one has claimed responsibility.
020
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 25/07/2024
Russia launched 38 Shahed kamikaze drones at Ukraine overnight, three of which strayed into Romania's airspace. As the Russian drones were attacking ports in the Odesa region, residents of Romania's Tulcea area heard multiple blasts www.politico.eu/article/roma...
politico.eu
Romania confirms Russian drones in its airspace
Ukraine’s air force said three Russian Shahed kamikaze drones crossed the border.
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 23/07/2024
Despite Western sanctions, Russia still procures components from abroad & enhance its weapons production. Read @rusi.bsky.social's paper by Jack Watling & Gary Somerville on replacing scattered sanctions with a coordinated disruption of Russian procurement schemes static.rusi.org/methodology-...
020
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 22/07/2024
The casualty rate is growing exponentially: 'When Ukraine was firing 10,000 shells per day, 35-45 🇺🇦soldiers were killed daily & about 250-300 were wounded. When the daily fire fell to half that, over 100 soldiers were killed per day & at least 1,000 were wounded' www.reuters.com/investigates...
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 20/07/2024
#China’s & #Belarus‘s troops have simulated the capture of an airport in an exercise near the border with #Poland & #Ukraine – days after Nato denounced Beijing as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war effort amp-scmp-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.scmp...
amp-scmp-com.cdn.ampproject.org
Chinese and Belarusian troops practice seizing airport near Ukraine border
The ‘anti-terrorist’ exercise was held just days after Nato denounced Beijing as a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s war effort
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 18/07/2024
It hurts so badly! 🫣 „The German armed forces and the Ministry of Defence have long ignored the relevance of nuclear deterrence. in the German MoD only two (!) of the approximately 2,500 employees deal explicitly with nuclear issues“ www.defensenews.com/opinion/2024...
defensenews.com
Germany must to raise its nuclear-deterrence IQ
Opinion: There is little expertise in German society to weigh thorny questions surrounding nuclear deterrence vis-a-vis Russia, argues Karl-Heinz Kamp.
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 17/07/2024
#Russia’s biggest emerging problem is with tanks & infantry fighting vehicles, crucial to any offensive ground operations. At current rates of attrition,🇷🇺 tank & IFV refurbishment from storage will have reached a “critical point of exhaustion” by H2 2025 www.economist.com/europe/2024/...
051
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 17/07/2024
#Germany's aid to #Ukraine will be reportedly cut to €4bn in 2025 from around €8bn billion euros in 2024. Germany hopes Ukraine will be able to meet the bulk of its military needs with the $50bn in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
Germany to halve military aid for Ukraine despite possible Trump White House
Germany will halve military aid for Ukraine next year, even with the possibility that Republican candidate Donald Trump could return to the White House and curb support for Kyiv.
020
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 15/07/2024
#China and #Russia have conducted 66 joint #military exercises since 2003. This trend of more frequent & complex land, air, sea, & cyber exercises, often near disputed territories, raises serious questions about global security www.iss.europa.eu/content/rehe...
021
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 13/07/2024
Can you guess who this other key NATO ally is, @POTUS? “Britain has to convince France and another key @NATO ally before it can allow Ukraine to fire its Storm Shadow cruise missiles at targets inside Russia as the UK is unable to act alone, sources claim” www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 12/07/2024
#France, #Germany, #Italy & #Poland agreed to develop ground-launched cruise missiles with a range beyond 500 km (310 miles). France suggested basing the weapon on its existing naval cruise missile MdCN, made by the producer of Taurus, Storm Shadow & Scalp www.reuters.com/world/europe...
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 12/07/2024
A Russian Navy ship normally based in Novorossiysk, has docked in the port of Ochamchire in #Georgia’s #Russia-occupied Abkhazia region. The base is already home to a few FSB patrol boats. This is the first significant naval ship visit observed in Abkhazia www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
navalnews.com
New Development In Black Sea, Russian Navy Using Base In Georgia - Naval News
A Russian Navy Ship has been observed in Ochamchire, in the Abkhazia separatist region. The Black Sea port may become an important base for the Russian Navy, acting as a safe refuge from the Ukrainian...
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 11/07/2024
The U.S. and Germany foiled a Russian plot to assassinate the chief executive of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger. The plan to kill the CEO was part of a series of Russian plots to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe www.politico.eu/article/russ...
politico.eu
Russian plot to kill European weapons chief foiled by US and Germany
Rheinmetall is Germany’s largest manufacturer of 155mm artillery shells, a crucial resource for Ukrainians defending themselves against Russia’s war.
051
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 11/07/2024
A major review of UK defence will take place in "less than a year", the new defence secretary said. Helping @NATO defend Europe from Russian aggression will also become a higher priority than sending military ships, jets & soldiers on exercises to Asia news-sky-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/news.sky...
news-sky-com.cdn.ampproject.org
New defence review will be completed in 'less than a year', defence secretary says
Labour's John Healey tells Sky News he will work "at pace" and a top priority will be reforming his department.
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 10/07/2024
In 2023 @NATO leaders adopted specific new regional defence plans. However, the new plans still don’t have enough capabilities to make the strategy operational & don’t include Sweden & Finland. An additional 35-50 brigades would be needed to make them work www.euractiv.com/section/defe...
euractiv.com
NATO looks at how to make itself 'war-ready'
NATO's new defence plans, requiring record-high military spending, will face scrutiny when leaders meet on Wednesday (10 July) to discuss ways to ramp up the alliance's defence capabilities.
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 10/07/2024
#Russia's missiles, such as the one that destroyed a Kyiv children’s hospital, relies on western-designed components, showing the Kremlin’s success at evading sanctions. Russia is making nearly 8 times more Kh-101s missiles than prior to the 2022 invasion www.ft.com/content/ef46...
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 10/07/2024
In the coming days @NATO will announce a new military command in Germany led by a three-star general for training and equipping Ukrainian troops, and appoint a senior representative in Kyiv to deepen #Ukraine's relationship with the alliance www.reuters.com/world/us/whi...
reuters.com
White House's Sullivan outlines plans to strengthen NATO support for Ukraine
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan outlined a series of measures to strengthen U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine on Tuesday, as leaders of the military alliance gathered in Washington for a summit.
010
Sascha Ostanina @saschaostanina.bsky.social · 09/07/2024
#China‘s & #Belarus‘s troops started joint military exercises near the Belarusian city of Brest, five kilometers from the border with #Poland. The maneuvers, codenamed Eagle Assault, will last until July 19. www.politico.eu/article/chin...
politico.eu
China and Belarus hold joint drills near Polish border ahead of NATO summit
Two key Russia allies claim to be responding to the “aggressive foreign policy” of Western countries.
000