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fourcornerscarbonmanagement.org

Thanks to my co-author Robert Page for advancing this work. This work was part of the Four Corners Regional Initiative fourcornerscarbonmanagement.org

Four Corners Carbon Management

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Our takeaway for state policymakers: if you want to develop carbon management, start thinking beyond deployment. The diffusion stage and how carbon management will be sustained over the long term needs to be part of the policy conversation now.

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So what are the alternatives? We explore three: public procurement, emissions trading systems, and extended producer responsibility. We compare them through three lenses: financing stability, administrative complexity, and who ultimately bears the cost.

The problem is simple: permanently disposing of CO₂ costs money, and disposal itself generates no revenue. Its benefit is climate mitigation. 45Q helps close that gap, but it doesn’t necessarily cover the full cost or provide a solution once the incentive ends.

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One finding that stood out: across Colorado, Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico, long-term policy support ultimately relies on the federal 45Q tax credit. 45Q is a great policy innovation—but it can only go so far.

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Stephanie Arcusa @sarcusa.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

Always exciting to publish new research, but this one was especially fun because it’s close to home. We looked at carbon management policy in the Four Corners states and find growing support for deployment, but limited options for long-term continuity. doi.org/10.1016/j.ij...

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California's SB 905 regulations will help shape the future of carbon capture and carbon removal. I submitted comments arguing that durable carbon policy should be built on robust carbon accounting. Reservoirs, monitoring, and permanence matter. Read more:

carbonmanagement.substack.com

California Has a Chance to Build Better Carbon Accounting

The biggest challenge isn't capturing carbon—it's proving where it went.

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Stephanie Arcusa @sarcusa.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Excited to share a new publication that builds on a research question that first emerged during my PhD. The study contributes to our understanding of how humans influence the dust cycle in the U.S. Southwest. Huge thanks to Frank Telles for leading! #dust #southwest doi.org/10.1016/j.an...

Our conclusion: Societies may decide not to incorporate these principles into their policies. Current state of affairs which allows for short-term storage that is orphaned within decades implicitly has abandoned intergenerational equity at least in the context of climate change and its consequences.

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Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks - Nature

None of this is against short-term storage. Short-term storage can certainly be certified as storing C, but it needs to be understood that it does not eliminate the climate impact of a C emission, it delays it. Short-term storage may still be useful if followed by subsequent storage. buff.ly/jQLZbFR

nature.com

Including passive CO2 uptake as an anthropogenic removal in greenhouse gas accounting systems could undermine the Paris Agreement; measures to address this include acknowledging the need for…

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Beneficiaries: current generation, fossil fuel industry, users, and managers of short-term storage. Losers: future generation, competitors to fossil fuels and managers of long-term reservoirs. Payers: all of us or the fossil industry? Deciders: standardization cycle and advocates for the future.

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The lack of standards that embrace such long timescales raises the question of what are the obstacles and how could they be overcome. We look at who benefits and loses from temporary storage, who pays and who decides.

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What we really contribute is the articulation of why this matters and to us it boils down to (1) intergenerational equity and (2) the polluter-pays principle. A world that commits to these two principles into the distant future must assure that excess C is stored for climate-relevant timescales.

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We consider the climate commitment of excess C, including C released from storage, and repeat the observation made by many that societies will have to decide whether they accept responsibility for the impact on people and the environment, across social groups, geographic regions, and generations.

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Note: this is not a dig at Microsoft or Stripe. They are currently one of the largest purchasers of carbon sequestration. Besides, it is hard to tell volunteers they are not doing enough. Permanence defined on climate-relevant timescales is better suited for regulation and compliance regimes.

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For example, Microsoft and Stripe received proposals for carbon sequestration totaling 142 million tons in 2020 and 2021. Tallying the length of time indicated by each proposal for how long the operator would look after the storage reveals how quickly the carbon would be orphaned: 50% in 30 years.

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Science tells us (1) excess CO2 is the primary cause of climate change and (2) excess C is a millennial problem. The timescale is at a min several thousand years if we only worry about excess CO2 in the atmosphere and >>10,000 years if we include excess C in the ocean-biosphere-atmosphere system.

Carbon sequestration ought to be permanent on climate-relevant timescales

I am pleased to share the publication of my newest paper with Dr. Lackner. All carbon sequestration has durability, a storage duration that varies by storage type. There is also a social decision for permanence, or how long is long enough. We explore why it matters and what it means buff.ly/UCoRzSd

buff.ly

Markets for durable carbon removal credits are expanding despite conflicting rules and standards. A major unresolved issue surrounds the permanence of…

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Stephanie Arcusa @sarcusa.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

As the world grapples with a range of environmental challenges, the intersection of energy and carbon is more important than ever. I’m honored to be joining an incredible lineup of experts at EarthX2025 Conference of Conferences to discuss innovative solutions. Join us! #EarthX2025 #ClimateAction

Stephanie Arcusa @sarcusa.bsky.social · 12/04/2025

I’m excited to join EarthX2025 Congress of Conferences hosted by @EarthXorg! April 21-25 in Dallas, we’ll tackle key challenges and opportunities in conservation, energy, and environmental policy. #EarthX2025

This chapter was made possible by the leadership of Josh Burke and Ingrid Schulte in addition to important work by co-authors Leo Mercer and Dianne Hondeborg. #MRV

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3) The chapter analyzed the interconnectedness of CDR protocols—who references whom. Most protocols seem to converge, with top references being the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, CDM, ISO 14064-2, WRI GHG Protocol, & Verra (cited by 2/3 of docs). Yet, 1/3 of protocols (mainly compliance) stand alone.

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2) An expert assessment of MRV across CDR methods reviewed metrics like quantification accuracy, confidence, research depth, protocols, and regulatory oversight, highlighting varied progress. While insightful, it’s important to note that assessments can be subjective, with differing conclusions.

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I was fortunate to co-author a chapter on monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) and reported on the big picture trends. 1) Over the last 20 years, most protocols have been developed for conventional methods, including afforestation, reforestation, and enhancement of land sinks.

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Edition 2 Resources — The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal

The State of Carbon Dioxn it comes to all things #CDR. Containing some of the most up comprehensive overviews of the entire industry, it also makes precious data available.

buff.ly

Download full report(PDF)

Stephanie Arcusa @sarcusa.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Thrilled to contribute to this new analysis from @oxfordnetzero.bsky.social & @CarbonBalance on UK carbon storage policy! As part of the academic steering committee, I especially appreciated the deep dive into accounting frameworks & pathways for storage obligations. Read it here:

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Markets and Mandates — Carbon Balance Initiative

A report on the role of markets and mandates in UK policy scenarios for future deployment of CCS and GGR.

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Stephanie Arcusa @sarcusa.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

The evolving CDR certification landscape involves many actors working to prove carbon is being removed to fight climate change. This brings opportunities for innovation, research, and business—but also great responsibility. Robust certification is key to ensuring carbon removal’s success. #CDR

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Stephanie Arcusa @sarcusa.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

When I first published the CDR standards landscape, I worried it would be outdated before the ink dried—this space evolves so fast! But I needn’t have worried—others have built on this work, keeping it current and advancing the conversation. 🙌 #CarbonRemoval

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Stephanie Arcusa @sarcusa.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

In 2022, I published the first overview of the carbon removal standards landscape in the journal Climate Policy —and it was complex! 🌍 30+ SDOs proposed 125+ methodologies for 23 different CDR activities and offered 27 versions of certification instruments. See it here: buff.ly/4h1Ys3h #CDR

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Thanks to my talented co-author Emily Hagood for bringing this research to the finish line! See her profile: buff.ly/3DDbbeA And read more of the research here: buff.ly/3PiGnCp

Curious about our data? 📊 We analyzed 28 international SDOs & 268 carbon removal proposals submitted to Microsoft (2021-2022). Why the wait? 🕒 The paper was ready in mid 2023, but scientific publishing takes time. #Publishing

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How do certifiers manage carbon storage durability & loss? 🤔 We found 6 mechanisms for durability & 4 for carbon loss, but choices often lack clear links to CDR methods or markets. Most common: commitment periods, buffer pools, & reversal compensation. #CarbonRemoval

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Stephanie Arcusa @sarcusa.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

Storage expectations range from 1 year to 10 million years! 🤯 It all depends on the type of reservoir. See the full breakdown in this graphic (first published in Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change, 30:1, 2025, Springer Nature).

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Excited to welcome Dr. Victor Fagorite to the ASU Carbon Systems Management Research Group! 🎉 Victor will focus on carbon accounting across diverse carbon removal methods. Looking forward to the impact of his work! #CarbonRemoval #ClimateResearch buff.ly/4j0b1hG

Stephanie Arcusa @sarcusa.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

Also check out my poster SY51F-2610 on "Assessing the certification feasibility of carbon removal methods – a case study of ocean iron fertilization" on Friday 13th 08:30 - 12:20. I'll be presenting preliminary results from experts consultations on OIF's certification feasibility. #AGU24 #CDR