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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

🔸Is Erdogan testing to see how Europe 🇪🇺will act? EU needs Türkiye 🇹🇷 defence and Trump appears to have given green light. Most important is to watch world’s 3rd largest economy: what will Germany 🇩🇪🇪🇺 say? [END].

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

🔸 But, often, politicians make choices for their own short-term political survival and personal-power. Open question: how will Türkiye 🇹🇷 respond: seculars, youths, opposition parties, Istanbulites and business? . . . Continued

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

🔸US & Türkiye 🇺🇸🇹🇷 also appear to have deep structural differences: Israel 🇮🇱& Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, Horn of Africa, Green Energy versus Gas/Oil, Egypt, Caucasus and Central Asia, China 🇨🇳 policy and list goes on. Continued . . .

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

🔸Numerically, Türkiye's 🇹🇷 economy, security and energy is European. This is easily demonstrated in trade, foreign investment, logistic connectivity & energy export market figures. US 🇺🇸🇹🇷 trade is less than 6% and EU 🇪🇺🇹🇷 trade is more than 45%. . . . Continued

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

🔸Why? No geo-political analyst would say otherwise. All trade figures, infrastructure, CU, electricity grid, supply chains support this. 🔸”If 🇹🇷 choose a security/economic relationship with 🇺🇸 US . . . it would be short-lived gain; it 🇹🇷 would be shooting itself in foot.” . . . Continued

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

New 🇪🇺🇹🇷 article by @news.dw.com is kind enough to quote my analysis. Çok teşekkürler / Danke🙏 Topic: İmamoğlu imprisonment and Erdogan reach for power & international bargaining 🇺🇸🇪🇺👇 🔸”Türkiye's 🇹🇷 natural choice should be Europe, where it shares a common geography.” . . . Continued

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

I wish I could have joined you in Rome 🇮🇹🇪🇺, Bucharest 🇷🇴🇪🇺, Belgrade 🇷🇸🇪🇺, Brussels 🇧🇪🇪🇺, Berlin 🇩🇪🇪🇺, Tbilisi 🇬🇪🇪🇺and many more cities this weekend for the #EuropeMarch. I wore my 🇪🇺 jumper for a morning jog. Viva L’Europa! 🙏 #UnitedInDiversity #StrongerTogether #ContinentalUnity

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Anonymous @youranoncentral.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

Thousands of people gathered in Bucharest, Romania to declare their solidarity with Europe and Ukraine, and to reject Russia and Trump's attempts to corrupt their democracy. #3E #RomaniaProtests

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

#French 🇫🇷🇪🇺 #intelligence community publishes my views on considering #Türkiye 🇹🇷 in European security architecture 👇 Ex-senior-intelligence & military-industrial expert Alain Rodier adds my views in 2025 public article for ‘Centre Francais Recherche sur les Renseignement’👇 cf2r.org/actualite/quel…

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

. . . Now, geo-politics, customs union and new security agenda are at play. Paradoxically, EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations have never been more relevant and fragile at the same time. Read my article (2024) about #Türkiye in Europe’s New Security Architecture 🇪🇺🇹🇷 liberalforum.eu/wp-content/u...

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

. . . Perhaps personal relationship of two leaders is lacking. Perhaps structural-divisions are too great between two of Europe’s leading powers. Only time will tell. What remains certain: 🇫🇷 popular misconceptions about 🇹🇷 and 🇫🇷 should be relegated to the past. . . . (Continued)

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

. . . Complex points of contention 🇫🇷🇹🇷👇 🔸Africa influence 🔸Caucasus & Central Asia 🔸Customs Union & EIB 🔸Security, Space & Defence 🔸Strategic Autonomy 🔸Eastern Mediterranean 🔸Cyprus territorial integrity 🔸Greek maritime 🔸Nuclear Plants 🔸Theology & Laicite 🔸Syria 🔸Migration . . . (Continued)

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

. . . @EmmanuelMacron.bsky.social should accept Erdoğan’s invitation to Ankara instead of always stalling. @rterdogana.bsky.social personnel should privately propose something more concrete to Paris, instead of offering little concrete. . . . (Continued)

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

The fastest way for Europe to counter American threats is through 🇫🇷🇪🇺🇹🇷 Franco-Turkish rapprochement. The question is whether 🇹🇷 Ankara and 🇫🇷Paris are willing to sacrifice or will instead out-rat/out-bid each other to Washington. . . . (Continued)

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 19/01/2025

No Elon Musk. Europe does not need American 🇺🇸 and Russian 🇷🇺 foreign interference to make “Europe Great Again”. Europe needs👇 🔸 EU Unity 🇪🇺 🔸 EU Defence 🚀 🔸 EU Bonds 💶 🔸 EU Nuclear ☢️ 🔸 EU Technology & Social Media👨‍🔬

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

#Türkiye’s 🇹🇷 most read (top 3) newspaper @Hurriyet translated & reprinted my Op-Ed into Turkish languagefor domestic 🇹🇷 audience ⤵️ 🇪🇺🇹🇷 Çok teşekkürler 🙏 Main points of Op-Ed 👇 🔸Trump 🇺🇸 #hypocrisy with Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 🔸#Nuclear France 🇫🇷🇪🇺 & German 🇩🇪🇪🇺#Eurobonds to replace Washington? . . . Continued

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

. . . Continued 🔸#US 🇺🇸 gets closer to #Russia 🇷🇺 in order to fight #China 🇨🇳 at expense of 🇪🇺 Europe, including Türkiye 🇹🇷 🔸#Türkiye 🇹🇷 is an ally of Kiev 🇺🇦 & must be included in 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇺 core European security architecture Link 🔗 Turkish language Hürriyet 🇹🇷 hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-… [END].

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

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Diego Cupolo @diegocupolo.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

“The general sentiment in the EU is that Turkey is more important than ever on security cooperation. That ranges from military procurement to Ukraine, energy, critical infrastructure, you name it," said @samueljsdv.bsky.social. My latest for @turkeyrecap.bsky.social:

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 12/01/2025

🎇 @Turkeyrecap.bsky.social Editor @DiegoCupolo.bsky.social kindly asked me to predict EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 in 2025 🎇 5-points👇⤵️ 1️⃣ #EU-#Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations in 2025 are fragile and very dependent on 🇺🇸 Donald Trump. . . . 👇

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

As HRVP @kajakallas.bsky.social arrives in Ankara, it’s worth reading my 🇪🇺🇹🇷 prediction 2025👇 EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 matters. Regardless of whether you’re secular or religious, or whether you like EU or Erdogan. Deteriorating relations would be a huge strategic, economic & security loss for both sides👇

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

If you’re unsure why 🇹🇷🇪🇺 EU-Türkiye relations are important? 🔟-point-list 👇 ———————— 1️⃣ Germany’s 🇩🇪🇪🇺 economy (& by extension Europe) depends on 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and vice versa. German 🇩🇪🇪🇺 supply-chains (not only trade) largely depend on China 🇨🇳, Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺 and Türkiye . . . Continued

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 12/01/2025

5️⃣ Let’s not forget that a Turkish economy without 🇩🇪🇪🇺 Germany is weak, and vice versa, Germany can’t build cars without Europe’s biggest back office: 🇹🇷 Türkiye. . . . 👇 [END].

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 12/01/2025

4️⃣ Existing vulnerabilities will be exploited. 🇫🇷🇪🇺 #France’s geopolitical rivalry w 🇹🇷#Turkey in #Caucasus & #Africa & disagreements over 🇬🇷🇪🇺 Greek & 🇨🇾🇪🇺Cypriot maritime in East Med are targets of foreign superpowers to divide Europe. A crisis will exacerbate vulnerable 🇪🇺🇹🇷 Euro-Turkish ties. . . . 👇

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 12/01/2025

3️⃣ Ankara 🇹🇷 and Berlin’s 🇩🇪🇪🇺 deep supply chains and economic relations will be seen with caution by 🇺🇸 Washington. That is because 🇺🇸 Trump, and Washington generally, see “the new great threat as 🇨🇳 #China”. It’s the opposite for Europe, which sees 🇷🇺 #Russia as the main threat. . . . 👇

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 12/01/2025

2️⃣ #Trump 🇺🇸 doesn’t want to give power to regional initiatives like 🇪🇺 EU. He prefers instead to handle relations bilaterally to weaken his counterparts. He will also be deeply uninterested in a powerful 🇹🇷 Türkiye since 🇷🇺 Russia’s wings have been clipped and #Ankara 🇹🇷 is gaining influence. . . . 👇

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

🔟 Türkiye 🇹🇷 has limited firepower without EU 🇪🇺. EIB & EBRD are pillars for success when it comes to large scale investments in technology, energy, infrastructure etc. It’s important that Türkiye 🇹🇷 start considering EU 🇪🇺 needs to attract investment, sustainable supply chains & defence coop. END.

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

. . . 9️⃣ CRM & Central Asia In today’s “hunt for Minerals” Central Asia will benefit from investment and tech-transfer. Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 & Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 have signed MOUs with EU 🇪🇺. Türkiye 🇹🇷 is well placed for processing, construction & other activities, provided 🇪🇺🇹🇷relations improve. Continued . . .

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

. . . 7️⃣ Russia 🇷🇺 containment. Nordics, Baltics & East of Europe know that Türkiye 🇹🇷 is a key ally in containing Russia 🇷🇺 in Central Asia, Caucasus and elsewhere. At the same time, Ankara has a polemically (unbalanced) energy relationship with Moscow in nuclear ☢️ and gas ⛽️. Continued . . .

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

6️⃣ Security. Türkiye 🇹🇷 is NATO member and - in the era of new European 🇪🇺 defence - it’s crystal clear that Türkiye 🇹🇷 needs the spending power and technology of the EU 🇪🇺defence industry, while EU needs Ankara for ground experience & strategic partnership. Continued . . .

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

. . . Migration management is important, but the long term strategy cannot be to “outsource everything to Türkiye 🇹🇷”. Increased common foreign policy in region (de-escalating + border management) helps to avoid crisis and forced migration. Return of Gymlich is good, more is needed. Continued . . .

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

. . . 5️⃣ Türkiye’s Stability, migration & spillover Türkiye 🇹🇷 is close to “the action” & sometimes it also instigates it (while at times also a victim of others). Whatever the reasons, the stability of 🇹🇷 is of strategic interest economically, security, & politically for 🇪🇺 EU. Continued . . .

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

. . . If Türkiye 🇹🇷 commits to Republican values (currently not the case), there is a real chance for Turkic Islam to play a bigger role amongst European Muslims in year to come. This however requires careful, moderate and intelligent diplomacy in sensitive areas. Continued . . .

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

. . . 4️⃣ Moderate Islam ☪️ It’s been a taboo to talk about culture & creed for a long time. Reality is that it matters to billions and mobilises people in ways that other things don’t. Europeans have therefore come around to think about religious narratives in recent years. Continued . . .

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

. . . The big prize of Ankara’s energy dreams is to transit Turkmen 🇹🇲 , Iraqi 🇮🇶 or Iranian 🇮🇷 reserves one day. Each have problems & benefits, as well as realistic & unrealistic prospects. Benefits include diversifying away from Russia (cheaply), but w risk of overdependence on 🇹🇷. Continued . . .

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

. . . 3️⃣ Energy transit. Energy is the motor of economy & a primary geopolitical factor. Türkiye 🇹🇷 is a non-fossil fuel exporting country, but it lay strategically and serves as a transit for gas/oil. It aims towards becoming a hub, something which it competes for w Greece+others . . . continued

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

This is true, but it is only true if Europe only invests in Trans-Caspian. Instead, as it does, Europe should invest and diversify across many corridors, including Trans-Atlantic, Suez, IMEC/Israel, Africa, L. America and so forth. . . . Continued

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

. . . I’m essence, the more roads & shipping lanes the better for Europe. Having many connection points will protects each route/lane from disruption through diversification. On trans-Caspian, some critics say that Europe becomes dependent on 🇦🇿Azerbaijan & Caucasus instability Continued . . .

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

. . . 2️⃣ Land bridge to Asia & Connectivity. Logically, a land corridor running through Asia is crucial for a more autonomous & fully diversified multi-corridor trade and supply chain policy of the 🇪🇺 EU. Trans-Caspian corridor allows for an additional trade-route & less risk. Continued . . .

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

. . . Türkiye is a key back-office for building goods for Europe’s economic motor with assembly & on-time manufacturing at low prices within proximity. In turn, Europe is 🇹🇷Türkiye’s biggest market & Ankara depends on 🇪🇺EU for imports and exports. They are interdependent economically. Continued . . .

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