Mattel — the company that brought you Barbie, Hot Wheels, and a decade-long stock chart shaped like a waterslide — has drawn takeover interest from Authentic Brands Group, the brand-licensing empire whose actual business model is buying distressed labels and then charging you to use the name.

Dr. Berries is back with the second installment of *History Rhymes*, in which he dusts off a 60-year-old book about a guy named Billy the Kid day-trading computer leasing stocks and says, squint hard, this is you.

The Wall Street Journal finally caught up to what the people who actually read loan docs have been screaming into the void for months: apartment landlords are staring down **$1.8 trillion** in debt maturities over the next decade, and the timing is chef's kiss, because the Fed raised rates for the f

James Bulltard is back, and this time the news is that the tape gapped up into the *underside* of the 21 ema and rejected it, which in technical analysis is called "resistance" and in *Idiocracy* is called "the plant is closing, we're just here for the salad bar."

Mark Baum said it best in *The Big Short*: everyone's walking around like they're in a goddamn Enya video. Reader, the Enya video has never been more serene and the plumbing has never been more on fire.

George Saunders — literary titan, Syracuse writing professor, a man with actual human readers — sat down to talk about aye eye and immediately led with a disclosure: he's "somewhat cranky and monotonous on this topic," and we should imagine him banging his cane on the floor.

President Pump emerged from a two-hour lunch with Silicon Valley's aye eye bosses Tuesday to unveil a "voluntary accord" — two pages, drafted on the fly in the East Room, containing at least one spelling error — which he described as "almost like a constitution" and "a form of protection." Reade

Dr. Ron Paul is out with a piece reminding us that Congress has a Constitutional obligation over war powers and has spent decades outsourcing it to whoever occupies the Oval Office, because voting on a war is hard and naming a post office is easy. In February, President Pump ordered a full assault o

The tape did a thing today. The SPY reclaimed the 21 ema, one whole day after losing it, which in technical analysis is called a "reversal" and in *Idiocracy* is called a character arc. Strong GDP print this morning, yields flat for once, VIX under 16, dino juice at $91 — calm. So calm. The kind o

Every aye eye pitch deck has one sentence it never says out loud: *the customer has to actually buy this.* Anthropuke's IPO filing says it for them, in writing, with citations.

The bond market's plumbing has developed a **Dark Spot**, which sounds like a dermatology warning but is actually the place where trillions of dollars in hedge fund trades are about to be shoved into centrally cleared markets by gubmint mandate — and where nobody, including the people paid to watc

The Comex, which is where grown men in fleece vests pretend paper claims on shiny rocks are the same thing as shiny rocks, just published the kind of data set that makes you check if your house has a basement.

Turdsla just announced **$30 billion** in fresh credit lines — a **$20B** three-year delayed-draw term loan from Shittygoop, an **$8B** five-year revolver from Wells Fargo, and a **$2B** 364-day revolver, presumably because the first two weren't enough of a vibe. The muhney is earmarked for Cyberc

Two finance professors did something genuinely novel: they pre-wrote Anthropuke's Risk Factors section — dated, sourced, 151 citations — *before* the S-1 drops. And they wrote it with Claude. Anthropuke's own model. Analysis of the raccoon, drafted by the raccoon, reviewed by a second raccoon wi

George Noble and Larry Jeddeloh sat down to deliver the news your financial advisor has been easing you into between golf outings: the four-decade bond bull market is over, fixed income is no longer a wealth-preservation tool, and your 60/40 portfolio is now just a 60/40 in the sense that 60% of the

The Dow fell 131 points Tuesday — 0.26%, the kind of number that counts as nothing until you notice it's the second straight losing session and the financials have been quietly getting Epstein'ed for a month.

Motorhead's out with the number: turdsla should print **488,500** Q3 deliveries — down **2.6%** from the 497,099 record set last year, when every dolphin in America panic-bought an EV before the $7,500 stimmie expired — and up a heroic **0.8% sequentially**. That's a 7% beat versus the Street, w

The aye eye boys are coming to the White House for lunch on Tuesday — Amodei, Altman, Zuck, Sundar, AI Jesus, Alex Karp, and Elern, the KetnoKing, presumably arriving by a rocket that hasn't been caught yet. Also invited: Speaker Mike Johnson, whose job is to say "strike the right balance" out lou

Jimmy Booltard is back and this time the news is that the tape is *puking*, just politely. The SPY broke below the 21 ema. It's still above the 50-day. It's still a "small bull flag inside a larger bull flag," which is what you call it when your chart looks like a patient flatlining but you've alrea

For three years the aye eye trade ran on one liturgical sentence: *it's different this time.* Anthropuke just published actual financial statements, which is the corporate equivalent of showing up to your own intervention with a breathalyzer.

Doomberg opened this morning's note with a confession, which for Doomberg is basically a hug. His long-shot call — that Ed Miliband would replace Sir Keir Starmer as PM — landed somewhere between *wrong* and *spectacularly wrong*. Miliband got shuffled off to foreign secretary, and his successor

Anthropuke filed its IPO prospectus this week and the headline is that the aye eye lab is betting it will transform the global economy *more profoundly than industrialization, electricity, and the internet*. Bold. Also: it lost **$42 billion** last year and plans to spend **$518 billion** on cloud a

Anthropuke is going public, and the S-1 has a *vibe*. The nearly $1tn AI lab led by Dario Amodei devoted almost a third of its prospectus to "risk factors," because nothing says "please wire us your retirement muhney" like a legal document that reads like the third act of a *Terminator* prequel. Amo

The White House is hosting dinner Sunday for Anthropic's Dario Amodei — the same man Team Pump labeled a national security risk and the president personally dismissed as running a "leftwing nut job" shop. Nothing says reconciliation like breaking bread with the guy whose products the Pentagon just

Dr. Berries was busy this weekend, and by "busy" we mean *repositioning*, which is Cassandra-speak for "the timeline moved up and I needed more leverage."

Jimmy Booltard is back, and this time the news is that there is no news. The SPY has spent two months in a range so tight it's basically a *Idiocracy*-era "value meal" of nothing. Dips are shallow, pumps get faded instantly, and if you're not holding commons or selling premium, you are — in the te

Kalshi's clearinghouse, Kalshi Klear, has asked the CFTC for permission to offer **margin trading** on certain prediction market contracts — initially gated to qualifying self-clearing members with capital requirements, sports and culture markets excluded, collateral ramping as settlement approach

Dr. Berries is back from the footnotes with Part IV, V, and a *coming soon* Part VI, because nothing says "need to know now information" like a series launch schedule that reads like a SpaceX manifest.

SpaceX's Starship Flight 14 slipped from Sept. 22 to Sept. 28, which in Elern Standard Time means it's *definitely* happening, six months from now, as long as nothing goes wrong and TACO doesn't need a ride.

Quoth the Raven is out with a 3AM astral projection this weekend arguing that markets aren't overvalued, they're *broken at the mechanical level* — a derivative of capitalism he describes as "crony capitalism snorting bath salts." We'd say that's harsh, but our 401(k) is currently 40% The S&P1 and

Dr. Berries is back with another installment of *Cassandra Unchained*, and this one has charts, which is how you know it's serious. His headline number: net capital investment to GDP at **2.07%**, highest since the dot-com corpse was still warm. Markets peak *before* investment peaks, he notes. We a

Tesla's Full Self-Driving — the product His Nibs has been promising in "six months maybe, twelve months definitely" since roughly the Obama administration — has hit a milestone nobody asked for: it is now *measurably more dangerous than a human*. Based on an estimated 2,132 cumulative crashes th

GLJ Research's Gordon Johnson — an analyst Quoth the Raven actually likes, which in this business is rarer than a fund manager admitting a loss — is out with a macro note arguing that the great rate normalization investors have been "waiting for" already happened, quietly, while everybody was re

Freddie Mac dropped its August multifamily report this week and the number is a museum piece: **0.64% serious delinquency**, above the 2011 peak of 0.35%, the highest in over twenty years. Fannie is at 0.57%, down from July but up from 0.24% back in December 2022. Reader, that's not a rounding error

Reader, we've told you the aye eye buildout is a [2/28 adjustable-rate mortgage with a pitch deck](https://sabstuck.com/article/59zJnNELeyzjkZ9FV9CxRE). Groundbreaker has now drawn the actual reset wall, and it's beautiful in the way a Credit Suisse chart in March 2007 was beautiful: everyone saw it

TypeSafe AI — a company you had not heard of eleven days ago — is reportedly fielding funding offers at **$10bn or more**, up from a $200mn valuation a year ago. That's a 50x markup in a week, which is not a valuation, it's a group chat where everyone is drunk and one guy has a wire transfer app

Groundbreaker dropped a piece this week arguing the aye eye buildout isn't a bubble at all — it's a *2/28 adjustable-rate mortgage*. Trillions in take-or-pay compute contracts are booked as backlog, billing doesn't start until the campus is energized, and the whole thing resets in 2027–2028 whet

Danny D sat down with George Noble this week and delivered the five stages of grief, each with a ticker attached.

Jimmy Booltard checked in Friday with the most honest market note of the year, which is to say he admitted he has *nothing*. The SPY is still riding the 8 ema, the chop zone is still a chop zone, and the only genuinely new information is that the 30-year just crossed **5.5% for the first time since

A new Unicus Research note dropped this morning and it is the kind of thing that makes you want to close your Bloomberg terminal, hug your children, and buy a farm — assuming you can finance the farm with four interest-free installments.

Yesterday the casino actually flinched. Oracle got puked 5%, the 10-year ran through 5.1%, the 30-year tagged levels last seen when people still used fax machines, and a 7-year auction tailed worse than anything since March. For about four hours, it looked like the market might have to price somethi

Oracle's stock got federally ass-pounded Thursday after the company reportedly dropped a **force majeure** notice on Project Jupiter — the 2.4-gigawatt New Mexico aye eye shed tied to Stargate and not-so-Open AI — citing delays in securing power, a natty pipeline pushed back six months after per

Oracle reported Q1 FY2027 and the sell-side reached for a new noun: **neocloud**. Translation — a company with negative free cash flow, rising debt, an ATM that never sleeps, and one customer. OpenAI reportedly accounts for somewhere near **$350B of the $664B RPO**. That is not a moat. That is a h

Quoth the Raven is back in full Wrath of God mode, and this week he pointed the lightning at crypto, where he is "certain" most of it is worth $0.00. Reader, you cannot short a certainty, but you can absolutely watch it happen in real time.

Dr. Berries is back with another installment of *Cassandra Unchained*, and this one has charts, which is how you know it's serious. His headline number: net capital investment to GDP at **2.07%**, the highest since the dot-com corpse was still warm. We are smack in the middle of the capital cycle ag

Nearly four years after ChatGPT made everyone pretend to be a productivity guru, the personal AI agent has finally arrived in a form the dolphins can operate: an app that nags you into linking your email, your bank, and probably your ex's birthday reminders, until it owns your entire online life.

Jimmy Booltard is back with the news that the SPY gapped below the 21 ema this morning, is trying to close back over it, and remains slightly above the 50-day. Reader, that is not a market update. That is a hostage negotiation with a squiggly line, and the squiggly line has all the leverage.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg closed Monday's Meta Connect by briefly holding up the **Muse Charm** — a chunky smartwatch with no strap, a lanyard, a fingerprint sensor, a tiny camera, three microphones, and, critically, no explanation of how it connects to Meta's servers.

George Noble did the math this week and the math is rude. Scott Bessent ran a hedge fund for fifteen years and compounded at **2% a year**. That's below a savings account, below a T-bill, roughly on par with a mattress with a good attitude. And this is the man the media has crowned the most conseque

Oracle has discovered the oldest trick in the contract-law playbook: when the project stops working, blame the sky. The company sent a **force majeure** notice to Project Jupiter's developer — a unit of Blue Owl's Stack Infrastructure — hoping to shield itself from racking up expenses if the 2.4