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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Trump seems incapable of maintaining a no war, no deal scenario. Threatening further acts of war while maintaining a blockade means the quasi-ceasefire is likely to fully break down.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

If a second round of Islamabad negotiations takes place, it will happen in spite of Trump’s reckless moves - first to allow Israel to attack Lebanon, second to impose a blockade and keep it in place after Iran signaled its own would end. Trump is bluffing with a bad hand and may get called on it.

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Reposted by Ryan Costello

Maryam Jamshidi @msjamshidi.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Hello friends, I wrote for Nation Magazine about how Iran has a reasonable legal basis for regulating the Strait of Hormuz and those that argue otherwise are reinforcing double-standards and imperial international law-making www.thenation.com/article/worl...

thenation.com

Only One Side Has Clearly Broken the Law In the Strait of Hormuz

And it isn’t Iran.

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Reposted by Ryan Costello

Trita Parsi @tparsi.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Told @ABC that it is not entirely clear that the Straits are open, just as much as it isn't clear whether Trump's blockade ever was really implemented. But Tehran is demonstrating here through this move that it decides whether the Strait is open or closed. abcnews.com/video/132143...

abcnews.com

Video What Strait of Hormuz opening means for lasting peace deal

Trita Parsi, executive VP of the Quincy Institute, discusses diplomatic efforts to end the war in Iran.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

They are already working to demand unattainable goals and stigmatize the notion of sanctions relief - all in preparation for a possible congressional battle to undo a coming deal. Yet it is doubtful that they have the juice after their war ended up being such an unmitigated disaster.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

President Trump seems to be pivoting from war toward an agreement with Iran. The application of the ceasefire to Lebanon, easing pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and continued shuttle diplomacy all point toward a breakthrough that will upset many in DC who spent decades setting the stage for war.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

A blockade is an act of war, so Trump is announcing he will reenter the U.S. into a war has been illegal under domestic and international law and has been disastrous for U.S. interests, regional security and the people of Iran.

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Reposted by Ryan Costello

Brian Finucane @bcfinucane.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Heckuva war the U.S. government is backing here.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Leaving the situation unresolved means continued restriction of traffic through the Strait, no additional clarity on Iran’s nuclear capabilities and a growing likelihood that Israel and Iran go back to war - potentially dragging the U.S. and others in.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Vance left negotiations with Iran suggesting Iran could take or leave the final U.S. offer. Iran was never going to agree to a final deal the same week they were threatened with civilizational annihilation, and the U.S. has few good options.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

No Trump plan survives first contact with Netanyahu

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

For those keeping score, Netanyahu didn’t just talk Trump into starting the disastrous Iran war. He also talked Trump into allowing him to violate the terms of a ceasefire to end it - risking the U.S. reentering a war that is a disaster for the region, U.S. and global economy.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

The process may be chaotic, tentative and even faulty, but it is far preferable to the chaos and destruction of war. Those who opposed war should now root for negotiations to succeed.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

President Trump went from threatening genocide against Iran to striking a tentative ceasefire in a matter of hours. What comes next? There is a ceasefire, but now two separate visions for peace need to be forged.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

This internal conflict is mirrored on the US side. Whereas Trump seems to want a deal, contra Khamenei, many under him are pushing to close the window for talks. If he’s serious, he likely needs to pause the planned pressure and consider goodwill steps to open space.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

The internal conflict in Iran is quite apparent. Pezeshkian will now have to push internally for clearance to negotiate, or Iran will remain under intense sanctions pressure and his agenda will languish.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

Trump said he was “torn” on signing the max pressure memo, and “unhappy to do it,” signaling a preference for diplomacy. Taking that at face value, his gut instinct may have been right - wedding an olive branch with pressure has triggered a harsh reaction from Iran’s leader.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

Trump greeting Bibi with return of “maximum pressure” on Iran - even though Biden never ended it. If they’re serious about driving Iranian oil exports to zero, it is a signal hawks are in driver’s seat again, and dangerous escalation will follow.

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Ryan Costello @ryecostello.bsky.social · 11/09/2023

Testing out this new place - here’s my latest www.stimson.org/2023/change-...

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