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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

So these results should be treated with caution & may differ from estimates derived from a more sophisticated weighting procedure. But the fact that other surveys (including the state-run VTsIOM) show similar declines is telling and increases our confidence in the pattern. /END

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

We caution that although these data are weighted by sociodemographic characteristics (to make our online sample more closely approximate the Russian population in socio-demographic terms) there were some changes in sampling methods by our online provider over the period. 6/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Consistent with this explanation, we find that Putin's approval dropped more among those respondents who rely most on the internet as a source of news. 5/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

One plausible explanation is that the drop in Putin's approval rating is due (at least in part) to frustration over the state's tightening of internet restrictions and blocking of Telegram, which became most acute in April 2026 (meduza.io/en/feature/2...) 4/

meduza.io

Russia has been blocking Telegram for months. Meduza asked five popular channel admins if it’s working. — Meduza

Russia’s internet regulator, Roskomnadzor, has been blocking Telegram for several months. The app remains accessible via VPN and proxy servers, but users have been abandoning it regardless — the restr...

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Strong approval declines and weak approval increases noticeably. By September the president's approval ratings bounced back quite a bit, but are still much lower than they were at this time last year. 3/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

The drop is barely noticeable when looking at aggregate approve/disapprove ratings from our survey (first fig.) but can be seen when breaking down the data into *degrees* of approval/ disapproval along the full Likert scale (second fig.) 2/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

🛑 Update on public opinion in Russia. We document a steady decline in approval of Vladimir Putin from roughly April through July -- consistent with polling data from other sources, including FOM and VTsIOM (meduza.io/en/news/2026...) 1/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Approval of Putin *seemed* to be unaffected by the mutiny, however. But Prigozhin's legacy is controversial; even long after the event -- and his suspicious death in a suspicious plane crash -- conspiracy theories continue to swirl around as to what "really" happened. /END

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Approval of the MOD continued to slide around the mutiny -- and approval of Prigozhin tanked. However, even after his "March on Moscow," over 25% of our survey respondents continued to express approval of the Wagner boss. Plus, approval crept up in the months after the event. 2/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

It's been two years since Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny of June 23, 2023. Looking back on survey data from around the event, we saw public approval of the MOD decline in early May 2023 (presumably as a result of Prigozhin's public criticism). 1/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

Support for the “special military operation” in Russia is also at its lowest point in a year, although it’s hard to tell if this is a new trend or an aberration.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

Interestingly, we observed a notable drop in Putin approval within our daily surveys of the Russian public during the month of October. Given that Putin approval has been highly stable for years, per our data, this may be a notable finding. Any ideas as to what may underly this shift?

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

In Russia, approval of Trump increased significantly leading up to and after the “Alaska Summit.” But in the past month, disapproval has crept back up to the level it was when Trump took office.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 08/09/2025

As talk of negotiations continues, ordinary Russians remain uncompromising. Around 40% say that troops should withdraw only after annexing part of Ukraine & regime change (i.e., ousting Zelensky). Only 10% support an unconditional, immediate withdrawal.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

How has Russian public opinion shifted in the wake of the "Alaska Summit," which took place on August 15. One notable change: approval of Donald Trump has increased considerably from its all-time low at the beginning of the month.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

Only about 10% (down from nearly 15% in September) say Russia should withdraw without any conditions, and >10% still say Russia should annex all of Ukraine. /END

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

But this doesn't mean Russians are willing to give up much. Our data show that as approval for negotiations has been going up, willingness to compromise has been going down: the % who say they want to annex part of Ukraine & achieve regime change has grown since February 2025. 4/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

Approval of negotiations also reached a peak in early August, with nearly 40% of Russians expressing strong approval of negotiations and another 25% saying they somewhat approve. 3/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

But uncertainty has ben increasing over the past week or two, perhaps in anticipation of the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. 2/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

Just two days before the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, disapproval of Trump has reached its peak in Russia, with nearly 40% of Russians saying they strongly disapprove of him and another 25% saying they somewhat disapprove. 1/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

Meanwhile, approval of negotiations is also at an all-time high, with a sizable majority expressing support. This is probably because negotiations seem increasingly likely to occur, and also (we suspect) because Russians believe they are in a good negotiating position.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

Trump’s rating in Russia just keeps going down… this is the lowest approval rating we’ve ever recorded as part of Russia Watcher. (We started tracking this stat daily in April 2024.)

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

However, Trump approval is still much higher than Biden approval was; less than 10% of Russians said they approved of the former US president before Trump took office.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

Approval of Donald Trump among Russians is now at the lowest level since fall 2024. After major upticks in approval in early February and early May, approval of the US president has been steadily eroding. Now, around 60% of our respondents say they disapprove of Trump, and only about 20% approve.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

If anything, Russians have become less worried about the economic effects of the so-called "special military operation." This suggests that although there is considerable dissatisfaction with the economy, many people don't blame their economic troubles on the war.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

How do Russians view the economic effects of the war against 🇺🇦? On the one hand, people have become increasingly dissatisfied w/ their personal financial situations in the last 2 months. On the other hand, worry about the economic consequences of the war hasn't changed much.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

At the same time, most Russians don't think that the war poses a serious threat to them personally. In fact, threat perceptions have actually decreased somewhat over the past ~1.5 months.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

Approval of negotiations continues to grow in Russia, while self-reported support for the war ('special military operation') remains high and stable.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

Note that these are unweighted 7-day moving averages (right-aligned), meaning that each daily point averages percentages from the current day and previous 6 days. /END

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

Meanwhile, perceptions of the success of the SMO have returned to level they were at before the new year after an increase from February to early May. 40% of Russians think the SMO is being conducted somewhat successfully, but only 20% think it's very successful. 5/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

It will be interesting to see whether Ukraine's recent drone strikes on Russian air bases will affect attitudes toward the war and prospects of coming to some kind of agreement. 4/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

This shows that while most Russians continue to say that they are in favor of their government's decision to fight war - which they have little control over - but they are increasingly keen to end the fighting, especially as negotiations seem more realistic. 3/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

It's worth noting that nominal support for the so-called 'special military operation' has remained relatively unchanged over the same time period. Over 60% of Russians say they strongly or somewhat support the SMO, and ~20-25% oppose it (~10% say they don't know). 2/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

Despite Vladimir Putin's apparent hesitation to negotiate with Ukraine, approval of negotiations toward a ceasefire are at an all-time high in Russia. Over 30% of our respondents in Russia express strong support and ~25% express weak support. 1/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

but it seems more likely that attitudes in Russia are shifting in response to the current diplomatic environment and recent meetings and phone calls between top Russian, Ukrainian, and US officials.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Please note that these figures show 7-day moving averages that are right-aligned. The data were not weighted to mirror Russia's demographic makeup. We made some changes to our sampling in early May, which could possibly help explain some of the shifts we observe around that time,

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

These figures show how attitudes toward more concrete tactics are much more malleable and subject to change over time than attitudes toward more general issues (e.g., the "special military operation") and Putin.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Approval of bombing Ukrainian cities has also fluctuated considerably over time, especially since late February.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Where we have seen considerable fluctuation - especially since late January, when Donald Trump was elected president in the USA - is approval of negotiations to end the war.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Meanwhile, Putin approval - as always - remains virtually unchanged, with perhaps a slight dip over the past couple of weeks.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Support for the war in Ukraine remained fairly steady over the past 6 months, also we did see what may be a slight downturn in early May.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 15/05/2025

For the third year in a row, we asked our Russian respondents how great a contribution various Allied countries made to victory in WWII. Results have been fairly stable. What's striking is how the vast majority of Russians perceive contributions of other Allies as relatively minor.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

These results suggest that Russians want an end to the war - but they also want to negotiate from a position of strength, putting maximum pressure on Ukraine to agree to concessions in order to stop Russian attacks.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

But this doesn't necessarily mean Russians are more supportive of peaceful tactics overall: approval of bombing Ukrainian cities as a military tactic has also increased steadily since early March.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

Striking increase in approval of negotiations in Russia over the past few weeks: well over 50% now favor negotiations, with a plurality expressing strong support. Uncertainty has declined markedly.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

Until now there's been little movement in 🇷🇺 beliefs abt how successful the "special military operation" is. But in early February, we saw a slight uptick in % of respondents who "strongly agree" that SMO is being conducted successfully. In the last few days we saw an increase in success perceptions.

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

Approval of using a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine underwent a shift around the same time - in the opposite direction. After a slow but steady increase in the % who "strongly disapprove," there was a sharp dropoff in disapproval of tactical nukes in early April. /END

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

Another interesting trend in public opinion is support for negotiations w/ Ukraine, which was steadily increasing over the last few months. However, support for negotiations plunged in early April. Any ideas of what might explain this shift? 2/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

Approval of Donald Trump in Russia has been climbing since the US president's inauguration in late January. When Trump took office a plurality of Russians (>30%) said they "strongly disapprove" of his actions. Now strong disapproval is only ~20% of respondents. 1/

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Russia Watcher @russiawatcher.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

Why has support for negotiations increased so much in the past 2-3 months? One idea is that Russians feel they can get a "better deal" under the Trump administration, which has been pushing for a ceasefire, compared to the Biden administration.

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