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Russell Pierce

@russellpierce.bsky.social
2.6K followers 249 following 298 posts

Cognitive Psychology PhD turned Data Scientist turned Data Engineering turned Engineering Leader... Everyday We Stray Further From Science's Light... but also closer somehow.

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Reposted by Russell Pierce
Molly Jeffery, PhD MPP @mollyjeffery.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Can confirm. A student told me about a an LLM-based tool that is supposed to help with your lit review. I asked it a question where my work should have been prominent. None of my work came up. Lots of different men did.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Relearning this morning why I don’t love the MCP spec. Actual usage almost always looks like an API or CLI. The spec itself is meant to support something a lot more like a structured conversation. But, the spec there is so flexible… it’s time consuming to write a workflow against it.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
MCP was a dumb replacement for APIs, but it implied a real vision- stateful cross agent communication - and now with this revision… what is left that makes it worth the wrapping of an API?
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
@mattpocock.com how do you think of something like Gas Town relative to what you’re doing with wayfinder? Especially with regards to coordination via centralized task manager rather than git managed task management (e.g via beads or ticket)?
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
@databricksinc.bsky.social what’s up with @anthropic.com proprietary model serving costing $0.105 per DBU in Azure while it costs $0.07 per DBU everywhere else?
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Did you have to do much to sell them? Is there a trick to it? I keep running into fixed scope people… and a good kill switch or three seems like it could be nearly as good as accepting variable scope.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Why are the foundation model providers failing so hard at building a decent memory system? Is it just because the approach they’re using now costs more billable tokens? It’s a waste.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Double check the Photo export files. Unless you get them through a particular path, I think it is takeout, Google gives big zips that are malformed. Or at least last time I tried that is what happened to me.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
The show must go on
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Oh look, we’re rebuilding something again. 🤣
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
LLM providers are going to need to rethink their web result processing strategies. Using cheaper and less capable models on search results will almost certainly result in greater prompt injection risks for interpreting current events without higher authoritative intermediate subsystems.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Read the update too! statwonk.com/hormuz-durat...
statwonk.com
Christopher Peters Consulting
Econometric analysis and revenue intelligence for public companies.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
A really fun statistically minded analysis by @statwonk.bsky.social. Worth the read!
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Factorial designs and stratified sampling FTW!
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
I don’t know which I find more challenging a person being forced to act soulless in a support role because they work for a soulless company or when it is an AI being soulless on the direct behalf of the company. There is a thin hope of some procedure breaking human decency with actual human support.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
“To prevent data retention concerns, Dell Technologies recommends that based on current technology, SSD/NVMe drives which contain user data are powered-up once every 2.5 months for a minimum duration of 3 weeks to allow background tasks to complete.” www.dell.com/support/kbdo...
dell.com
PowerEdge: Data Retention Occur with SSD or Nvme Drives Due to Prolonged Power off | Dell Maldives
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
I recently fought through permissions heck on AWS and came up with a solution I think I believe in. Stacks of hard drives are my fallback position. But I only recently read that you’re supposed to power SSDs on periodically to avoid data loss.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Which gave me an even more sympathy for security folks worried about what people might do and the risks of social engineering.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
I locked @openclaw-x.bsky.social in a sandbox and watched it skitter around, with Opus 4.5 and with gpt-oss:120b. The security doomers are spot on. But the threat model is similar in kind (but worse) that just giving a random person access to equivalent permissions needed to perform a given task.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
The skill markdown file for a Claude skill must be static when packaged. But, nothing seems to prevent it from being a stub that then calls a method within the skill to populate dynamic content. My question is how many boilerplate tokens (aside from description) does a skill burn just by existing?
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
The skill markdown file for a Claude skill must be static when packaged. But, nothing seems to prevent it from being a stub that then calls a method within the skill to populate dynamic content. My question is how many boilerplate tokens (aside from description) does a skill burn just by existing?
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
I guess it is a blessing that the AIC/BIC make it really hard to misuse them in this way?
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Exactly so. There are many measures that make sense for looking at a model across datasets. R² isn't that as it describes the model itself on its dataset. For alternate datasets there are many other options Or in the spirit of R² being in 'plain' units rather than variance units, RMSE.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Depends on how you define 'traditional' and the tradition you come from I suppose. books.google.co.ao/books?id=lNN... would generate power from the grave I think.
books.google.co.ao
Journal of Agricultural Research
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Yikes. Is there a list of 'sklearn doesn't do what anybody else did' choices? I ran into the 'everything is secretly horrible' with L2 regularization being the default for logistic regression. So, I'm wary, but this one took the cake as seeming like more than just being 'a choice'.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
So much has gone wrong at that point though. R² was historically originally a measure of model fit within its train set. Arguably it doesn't belong, nor is it sensible, to use for validation or test data.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
If the predictions have a negative relationship with the observed values it can drop below negative 1. Deeply cursed at a conceptual level.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
I don't find it credible that R² should be negative anymore than the square of a non-imaginary number can be negative. In the sklearn case, they wrote it to be sensitive to the mean... if the prediction is worse than the mean of the observations would have been, it goes negative.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Nevermind that question alone shows in other ways that sklearn is unhinged.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Train
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Why in the list underneath the article is it listed at 11? I want to believe. Scikit gave an ML colleague a negative R² value today. Not adjusted R². I'm tired. 🙃
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Sklearn's regression metrics function r2_score can yield negative values. No, it isn't yielding an adjusted r^2. Cursed.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Do other parents enjoy helping their kids out on studying for spelling tests? How do you do things so that it is more enjoyable?
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
Is the drum in alexdeng.github.io/public/files... or is there another resource you'd recommend (until your paper comes out)?
alexdeng.github.io
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
As a _very_ minor point at typical sample sizes, the ANCOVA will certainly penalize you for the two degrees of freedom that you're otherwise stepping out of the model (slight change in error terms). But, I'm looking forward to seeing the paper he is putting together to explain the rest!
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
@phdemetri.bsky.social would you mind checking my restatement? cc: @chelseaparlett.bsky.social
# Hold onto the mean of the outcome
outcome_mean <- mean(mtcars$mpg)

# mean center the outcome and predictors
# n.b., you only need to mean center (no need to scale any of the variables)
mean_centered_variables <- scale(mtcars, center=TRUE, scale=FALSE)
model <- lm(mpg~0+am+wt,data=data.frame(mean_centered_variables))

# The adjustment is to just take the unexplained variance from the model
# i.e. residuals and restore their original mean
adj <- outcome_mean + model$residuals

# Original Variable
mean(mtcars$mpg)
#> [1] 20.09062
var(mtcars$mpg)
#> [1] 36.3241

# Adjusted variable
mean(adj)
#> [1] 20.09062
var(adj)
#> [1] 8.978055

# Note 1: We mean centered, of course we didn't need to estimate an intercept
model_w_intercept <- lm(mpg~1+am+wt,data=data.frame(mean_centered_variables))
zero <- 0
names(zero) <- "(Intercept)"
all.equal(0,model_w_intercept$coefficients["(Intercept)"],check.names=FALSE)
#> [1] TRUE
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
I have used d2 and mermaid for diagrams with it mostly. True re: GIMP. A web based tool it might have a shot at steering, but it wouldn't be cheap.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Does it do any better with the graphs, graphics, and illustrations if you bounce it through writing code to produce them? Maybe giving it hints about technology that tends to produce more appealing outputs? Or it is just at a loss?
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
🤦‍♂️Give me the power to give myself the grace I aspire to give to others.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
It is f'ing awesome to realize that something you'd been shooting intuitively around for years but couldn't get a handle on has a fully realized version. It is a little bittersweet too. Moreso when you see that the realized version has been around for decades.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
It's a little less insane than it looks on the surface if you consider that someone needs to be able to wake a screensaver from a blueooth mouse or keyboard. But... yikes... it wasn't one of the first 10 error messages I tried to run to ground to solve the problem.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
You can't make this stuff up. Gnome was dying on a new linux machine because... *checks notes* the screensaver wouldn't start because a bluetooth library wasn't available.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
I've spent some of today using local models to squish down verbose webpages to the things I actually care about for doing additional work. Then I notice Qwen code does "Fetching content from {url} and processing with prompt: {prompt}"... makes me feel seen and validated.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
I kind of love using a model from a different family to vet what the first model said. It has seemed to work better than reprompting the initial model with a fresh context window.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Now right an LLM as a judge to evaluate the prompt and evaluate the evaluation...
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
It's funny how Anthropic silently boosted usage available on Pro plans this week in the middle of the week AND changed the weekly reset to Wednesday from Monday. I presume it is because they released a new feature that chews through tokens like mad and they want people to fall in love with it.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Relearned lesson for me: Hosted LLMs can sort through a mountain of stuff quickly - so quickly you don't always recognize it is happening. Don't let it happen to you. If you've put in more than 5 minutes trying to shape an Assistant to finish an 'easy' task.. it's not going to get easier.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
So, like an animal I looked myself and found out that the relevant data was server side rendered by Svelte. The actual information to render is in a script tag to be rendered locally by Svelte? IDK, but that gave me the hint I needed to hand off and extract the table. tinyurl.com/mwm6wkze
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
In trying, lots of full page reads and cycling through minor changes in Javascript, like a developer who got stuck and now is just trying things without any grounding hoping that something works.
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Russell Pierce @russellpierce.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Challenge 2: Now on the site, Claude has to read the full page content. It tried and thrashed to figure out relevant Javascript, but got nowhere. Full page reads could easily be 100kB each. Claude tried in vain to extract the data we needed useing Javascript and got nowhere.
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