iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Raoul Ruparel @rruparel.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

It was great to contribute to this. You can read my essay (focused on the practicalities of an abundance agenda in the UK) but more importantly all the other great ones in this edition of Progressive Review. I hope some of these ideas are picked up in HMG.

000

Yes possible, though big hurdles remain largely undiminished. But as I say, may be other reasons to pursue a closer relationship, such as the one you set out. But I think there are people who see the closer relationship HMG talks about now, as a short term growth lever which I don't think it is.

110

Therefore plays a role in minimising economic gains from a closer relationship sadly. It is one of the reasons - alongside negotiating time, implementation time & lack of ambition - why the current discussion of a closer relationship is not a real lever for economic growth, esp in short run (4/4)

100

They will need to be assured this is a long term shift & the value generated from reversing (i.e. more investment) will be maintained in the medium to long term. Unfortunately, it is basically impossible to give them this guarantee given UK politics. (3/4)

100

This has important implications. Many businesses who have invested significantly into EU operations are not simply going to reverse that, even if the relationship is improved. (2/4)

121

An interesting paper on an underexplored part of Brexit impacts. Broadly confirms what those of us who worked with business on implementation saw first hand. But I think the key point here is the one they make about sunk costs. I think many of these are already in play (not 3-5 years away) (1/4)

100

https://www.bcg.com/united-kingdom/centre-for-growth/the-productivity-frontier-uk-leaders-laggards-and-the-growing-gap

Read the full report The Productivity Frontier: UK Leaders, Laggards and the Growing Gap here 8/ ENDS t.co/UA3Gxabj3f

t.co

000

We set out some thoughts about what this means for economic policy in the UK, but this is also just the start of a series of reports looking deeper into these issues this year. Key is that this isn't a one size fits all problem 7/

100

At a firm level, the UK also has a longer & deeper tail of less productive firms. The number of firms in the bottom quartile of productivity has grown much faster than the overall number of firms. The bottom 5% are also less productive in real terms than in 1997. 6/

100

These sectors have historically been responsible for the bulk of UK's productivity growth. From 97-07, they accounted for 84%, from 08-18 they contributed 46% & only 34% in 19-24. No other sectors, save for professional services in past few years have grown to offset this 5/

121

Manufacturing has seen productivity stagnate at all levels since 2008. This suggests more structural challenges - ones we'll be familiar with from high energy costs to barriers to investing. 4/

100

In financial services, the UK has seen productivity stagnate since the financial crisis meaning it has fallen back from the frontier. But this remains a relative strength with productivity above the levels of G7 peers. 3/

100

In info & comms the UK has shown consistent growth but the frontier has accelerated away in recent years (mainly due to US). UK continues to outpace other G7 peers. While most productive firms are growing strongly there is a tail of less productive ones falling behind 2/

100

🚨New report from us BCG CfG today🚨 we take a sector & firm view of UK productivity growth over past 3 decades, including benchmarking against peers. UK is falling back from global frontier but for quite different reasons in different sectors 1/

102

We think (happy to be corrected) this is the broadest & deepest study of its kind, building on existing academic work. We take a longer timeline & a wider set of different types of infra as well as a larger country group than ever before. For those interested in the modelling approach, details below

000

At a time of rising economic & geopolitical uncertainty, infrastructure investment is more important than ever to enhance prosperity, security and resilience. Read our full report below. 11/ ENDS www.bcg.com/publications...

Infrastructure Investment in an Uncertain World

This comprehensive analysis of infrastructure shows what works and what doesn’t. Success depends on choosing the right projects and delivering them effectively.

000

As we’ve explained before, delivery is where value is lost. No one is incentivised to protect value across the delivery process. Need to get ecosystem right, then address common problems at portfolio & project level. 10/

100

How to pick the right projects? Link economic & social vision -> sector/place strategy -> choose the infra that unlocks those sectors -> sequence/prioritise (path dependencies, time to returns, supply constraints). Idealised version, more complex in practice but keep all in mind 9/

100

Despite this, countries invest very differently. Why? In our experience, governments struggle with two key questions when allocating scarce resources: 1) how to pick the right projects for their context, and 2) how to deliver them efficiently to maximise value 8/

100

In developing economies, human and wider physical capital are more significant drivers of GDP growth than infrastructure alone. This highlights the need for complementary investment. 7/

100

A 1% increase in infrastructure stock, in general, has a greater impact for developed economies. This is due to it equating to more in absolute terms and thanks to already highly skilled workforces. 6/

100

Higher-quality infrastructure yields greater results than “basic” infrastructure. E.g. expanding motorways in developed economies has a greater impact on GDP growth than regular roads (very relevant for those with aging infra stock) 5/

100

Developing economies see relatively larger benefits from transport infra. Rail and air freight (as a proxy for airports) have the greatest impact for these countries. Likely because many of these countries are more trade & resource focused. 4/

100

Energy & digital infra deliver largest long run growth uplift, but particularly true for developed economies. With greater economic complexity, energy & digital become relatively more important. 3/

100

We group countries into 5 archetypes based on level of development & existing infra stock. 5 key insights emerge from our analysis, with energy & digital infrastructure overall showing very strong impacts on long run GDP growth 2/

100

🚨New report from us @BCG 🚨. We look at 7 types of infrastructure across 92 countries over 30 years to understand their economic benefits. Key message: a +5% increase in infrastructure stock is associated with +0.3 to +0.45pp higher long-run GDP growth. This is huge... 1/ www.bcg.com/publications...

Infrastructure Investment in an Uncertain World

This comprehensive analysis of infrastructure shows what works and what doesn’t. Success depends on choosing the right projects and delivering them effectively.

100

Raoul Ruparel @rruparel.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Good piece, well worth a read. The gap between reality & rhetoric remains large. I suspect part of the problem is that if you put to many leaders of middle powers that they should adopt a principled and pragmatic approach, most would argue that they already are!

Raoul Ruparel @rruparel.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

Indeed, my feeling is that given some of the tensions & conflicts it quite quickly descends to a pick & choose approach on what suits them. Which is just to say, essentially the same as what most are doing now. I'm glad he called out what he did but sceptical in reality leads to a different approach

Raoul Ruparel @rruparel.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

Hmm yes possibly, I did find it hard to square his view of "variable geometry" but at the same time "acting consistently. Apply the same standards to allies and rivals". I guess you could justify his China approach on the former, but it surely invalidates the latter.

Raoul Ruparel @rruparel.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

But equally is Carney following the rhetoric in his speech? Agree with lots of it but I find it hard to reconcile with his approach to China. It didn't strike me as reflecting his call for principled approach protecting human rights & calling out allies & rivals on econ intimidation

310

At a time when we urgently need growth drivers & fiscal savings, this is relatively low hanging fruit. We don't need to be forefront of innovation, we simply need to follow proven approaches to scaling existing innovations. Read the full report here /ENDS www.bcg.com/publications...

Innovation for Impact: Unlocking the Potential of the UK’s Healthcare Ecosystem

Harnessing the UK’s healthcare innovation potential could add billions to GDP and improve patient outcomes. What actions are needed to deliver this?

021

Solving these isn't impossible. In fact, we detail a series of case studies where other developed economies have found solutions to just these sorts of problems. See for example this on US & Singapore's innovation pathways 5/

100

So, what is stopping us doing this now? The barriers won't surprise you, they are common ones we hear about across the NHS & public sector more widely. Together though these have created a system which actively discourages scaling innovation 4/

100

The problem then isn't necessarily developing innovations themselves but scaling & adopting them. To better understand the specific benefits we looked at 4 high impact conditions & the benefits from scaling existing approaches already used elsewhere 3/

100

We know the UK has great universities & research institutes but we struggle to translate this into improved patient & commercial outcomes. From 2015-23, Denmark saw 13% growth in its biopharma sector while US’s healthtech & medtech sectors grew 7%. Across these UK grew 5% 2/

100

🚨New research🚨 out today from us at BCG Centre for Growth – looking at how the UK can unlock further value from healthcare innovation. As it stands, we leave significant value (£78bn) on the table, growing behind Italy & Spain in some health subsectors 1/ www.bcg.com/publications...

Innovation for Impact: Unlocking the Potential of the UK’s Healthcare Ecosystem

Harnessing the UK’s healthcare innovation potential could add billions to GDP and improve patient outcomes. What actions are needed to deliver this?

100

Yes very much agree, I was sharing your frustration of the parochialism! For me that convo should start from big picture what we need & then a detailed analysis of what supply chains across Europe (incl UK) need to deliver it. I fear current convo on funding pots & legal architecture is too narrow

020

Let's start by thinking about what Europe needs then how best it can be implemented. The early signs on this are not great. Both sides seem to be stuck in their same old positions. German approach gives some hope. But I fear both EU & UK are some way from common market Martin hopes for (3/3)

100

This issue is ultimately too big & too important for either side to get caught up in their usual navel gazing. It requires a fresh, strategic discussion. Yes EU law will underpin much of it, but it shouldn't be the starting point. Form should follow function. (2/3)

120

Raoul Ruparel @rruparel.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

Ironically during the original negotiations it was the EU (especially France and Macron) that wanted to keep defence more separate. He regularly told us - we can have a great relationship on defence etc but on Brexit & trade it will be painful. As Martin says, it's not that simple...(1/3)

120

This is an interesting (& somewhat crazy chart) from the OECD Global Dept Report out today. Huge amounts of additional borrowing from corporates not shifting the dial on investment. www.oecd.org/en/publicati...

020

Raoul Ruparel @rruparel.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Agreed with Jill on this. One budget would make sense, just look at the swings in UK borrowing costs we've seen this year. I can though understand the case for two budgets. What I really can't see the case for is one budget with two separate forecasts per year. Always a terrible idea.

121

In this work we have (for 1st time?!) estimated share of UK announced infrastructure projects that never go ahead - 37%!! Based on data from 2010-15, 16% of announced projects get scrapped while a further 21% get stuck in planning/preconstruction stage for over a decade.

Arthur Downing @arthurdowning.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Reposted by Raoul Ruparel

This is a superb report and thread. If we want a playbook for how to do this, it is in our own history. From 1947 to 1979 the British state successfully coordinated a gargantuan programme of infrastructure development (water, gas, electricity) and housebuilding.

031

Ultimately, if we want to invest more in a sustained way & meet shorter term targets on growth/energy transition we need to build capacity. Just letting chips fall where they may is unlikely to lead to optimal outcomes. Read full report below. 9/ ENDS www.bcg.com/united-kingd...

Thankfully, there are steps that can be taken to smooth demand & strengthen supply chains. Needs action from public & private sector. Part of this is a strategic sense of priorities, but also doing some of basic better in the industry. 8/

100

Third, projects will face new forms of complexity (be that technical, regulatory, political or economic). We expect next 5 years to see more large projects. Which are inherently more complex due to all the moving parts & long supply chains. 7/

100

Second, there is a mix of chronic & acute skills shortages. e.g. number of welders employed has declined by 40% in 20 years. While we estimate the grid upgrade will require 3x-4x the number of high voltage line workers currently in the UK. 6/

100