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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 22/02/2026

Reasonable worst-case puts of a lot of places near the mythical 30" mark. And to think this does not include some snow before/after this 24hr period

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 22/02/2026

WPC 50th Percentiles are hovering around 2ft for my area and points south, banding structures hold the key for totals on either side of that.

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 22/02/2026

Impressive Baroclinic leaf look starting to take shape ahead of the main trough. Also some convective elements in there as the trough goes beyond neutral tilt. This may go down as one of the most memorable storms I've been a part of.

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

Big jump in Great Lakes ice cover with this recent arctic air! Doesn't modify arctic air headed for New England as much when they are iced up. Better baroclinic zones on the coast maybe?

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

Can see this clearly at 850mb:

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

Appears as if some lower level FGEN is on its way to eastern and central MA after the earlier bursts with higher level advection. Hopefully the most intense rates of the storm!

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

Coastal transfer well underway

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

Impressive snow rates given we're still in the single digits here! About an hour ahead of schedule. Will we cross the 2ft mark?

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

Looks like a great storm for Metrowest! Good middle ground between high ratios in the north with higher QPF in the south. Combine that with nearby coastal fronts on the ENE wind and CAMs consistently have metro Boston in the crosshairs. Hoping to cross the 18" mark! Maybe some thunder?

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 26/12/2025

Measuring snow board and stakes are ready here in northern Dutchess County! Hoping the banding sets up similarly to what the HREF ensembles are hinting, but I've been let down before with the banding heading north to the Capital District with robust WAA.

12z HREF Mean 24hr Snowfall ending Sat Morning for the Northeastern US

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

This morning's HREF is coming in a bit more robust with the approaching trough and resulting LLJ/wind gusts tomorrow for eastern New England, looks like some upgrades to warnings may be warranted. Looks like +/- a few hours from noon is the time for peak gusts.

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

34F at KMPO and the mid 50s next door in the Tri-State area, winter is coming!

Screenshot of ASOS temperatures/winds just after noon 11/10

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

Exciting prospects for a major east coast snowstorm next week on the overnight guidance. Good agreement between each ensemble suite - especially for a ~6 day leadtime - and these higher ceiling storms often materialize around then. But that doesn't guarantee anything, fingers crossed!

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 19/01/2025

Impressive concentric banding already underway in PA and MD

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

Core is dark red, broader definition light shaded

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Since I did not upload the GIF correctly... here is the loop

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

[1/2] The latest few cycles of the EPS have dramatically backed away from a cutoff southern stream in the Gulf of California next week at relatively short lead times (~130 hours). This is good news for wildfire relief efforts as it may reduce the severity of PGFs across the Transverse Ranges.

Latest six runs of the EPS 500mb Geopotential height and cyclonic vorticity averages fixed at 12z Tues Jan 21. Domain is all of North America

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

Big increase in east coast snow prospects on this morning's GFS ensemble. Many members and large MSLP spread near the benchmark with explosive deepening. Remains to be seen if this is an outlier run cycle, but this signal under 140 hours is exciting.

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

12z HREF members coming in more robust with morning snowfall as the shortwave moves through. Morning commute timing and brief but moderate snowfall makes for a potentially hazardous combo, especially given quick accum. on cold ground from the departing arctic air.

12z HREF mean ensemble 1-hr snowfall valid 12z Tuesday 12/24 for the northeastern US (white Christmas eve?).

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

Some solid ocean-effect has prompted NWS Norton to increase snow totals to advisory levels for eastern Mass

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Rob Van Kleeck @robvk.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

Some proper arctic air on its way to the NE this weekend. The European suite is noticeably colder than the GFS suite however; deterministic ECMWF runs showing widespread -20C 850mb temps. GEFS keeps things more progressive. The downstream rapid-fire shortwaves contribute to these discrepancies.

Euro Ensemble 850mb Temp Anomaly valid Sunday morning

Deterministic Euro 850mb temps valid Sunday morning

GFS Ensemble 850mb Temp Anomaly valid Sunday morning

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